FXUS61 KOKX 300026
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
830 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW WILL SWING EAST THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA 
OVERNIGHT...WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION. UPPER JET 
CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A STREAM OF 
CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
DOMINATE...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT 
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NW FLOW. A GOOD RADIATIONAL 
COOLING SETUP...WITH TEMPS DROPPING NICELY TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OVER 
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND EVEN THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LI. DON'T 
THINK TEMPS WILL DROP INTO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA (MID 30S) OVER 
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH INSULATING EFFECT OF CIRRUS AND MODERATING 
DEWPOINTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SO FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND WONT 
UPDATE WORDED ZONES...BUT WILL TWEAK GRIDS WITH CURRENT SAT/MOD/OBS 
DATA AND ISSUE NEW AFM/PFM/SFT AND GRAPHICS. 
&&


.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS KEEPS 
CONDITIONS TRANQUIL.
&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z AS WE LOSE DAYTIME 
MIXING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH 
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. SEA-BREEZE POSSIBLE 
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z FOR KISP...KJFK..KGON...AND KBDR WITH WEAKENING 
AND SW TURNING SUB-BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT...AND SUFFICIENT 
LAND/WATER AIR TEMP DIFFERENTIAL.
&&


*********************PREVIOUS 235 PM DISCUSSION**********************

.SHORT-TERM...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES 
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS LOOKING REASONABLE. BASICALLY 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT RIDGE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR 
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR OR 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD 
LOWER NICELY. COLDEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS 
THE PINES BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WHICH MAY SEE SOME READINGS DOWN TO 
NEAR 40 BEFORE DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH QUITE CHILLY...NO FROST EXPECTED. 
FAIR AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NW FLOW GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SW. 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEREFORE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY 
AFTERNOON. ONE CHANGE THAT WILL BE MADE WITH THIS PACKAGE IS TO PUSH 
NEXT CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION BACK SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT 
SHOWERS WILL BE DELETED FROM THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. BEST 
CHANCE MAY EVEN HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MENTION 
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. STILL LOOKING FOR EVENTUAL LIKELY POPS BUT WILL 
TAILOR AND BLEND. ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WITH SURFACE LOW TO OUR 
SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A LID ON THE TEMPERATURES 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WILL BE ATTEMPTED 
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

.LONGER TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN. TEMPERATURES 
HOWEVER SHOULD AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS FORESEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE 
SOME HEAVIER RAIN MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL NOT ANTICIPATING 
ANY PROBLEMS.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO MONDAY...WITH 
SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS 
AT THAT TIME WITH WARM FRONTAL APPROACH AND WAVE FORMING OFF THE 
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST...BUT TOO EARLY TO HEADLINE.  
&&


********************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***********************


.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$