FXUS61 KRNK 151953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
255 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2003

.SHORT TERM...

TNGT AND SUN...

STARTING WITH SATURATED AIRMASS. FIRST SHRTWV PASSING THRU THIS 
EVENING THEN POPS SHUD DIMINISH UNTIL NEXT SYS ARRIVES SUN AFTN WITH 
BETTER 8H/7H UVV AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ESPECIALLY WEST. ENDED UP 
RAISING POPS ALL AREAS SUN. WINDS AFT THE SFC SHUD REMAIN LGT UNTIL 
SUN AFT THEN OUT OF THE SW BUT JUST ABV...WINDS WILL PICK UP 
GRADUALLY FM THE SW. COMBINATION OF LOW LVL WAA AND INSULATING CLDS 
SHUD RESULT IN VEYR SMALL DROP IN TEMPS TNGT. ALSO WENT WITH COOLER 
TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS SUN WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN. 

.LONG TERM...

THERE SEEMS TO BE ENUF OF AN UPR RDG BUILDING UP BEHIND SUNDAYS WAVE 
TO PUSH DEEP MOISTR SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY. HOWEVER DRY AIR DOESNT LAST LONG AS DEEP WESTERN TROF 
PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS.  RETURN MOISTR INTO THE SW ALONG WITH 
SELY LOW LVL FLOW COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN BACK INTO THE SW 
CORNER OF THE FA LATE MONDAY.  SE FLOW BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD 
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF CLD FRONT SO 
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD LIGHT RAIN NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA THRU TUE.  
LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...MORE DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN PCPN ARRIVES WITH 
THE FRONT AND PUSHES OUT EARLY WED...ACCRDING TO CRNT MODEL TIMING. 

LIKELY TO SEE SCTD TSTMS WITH TUE NGTS FRONT AND NEG TILTED 
TROF...HOWEVER INSTABILITY SHUD BE INHIBITED SOMEWHAT BY UPSLOPE LOW 
LVL CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL COULD BE AN ACTIVE 
NIGHT.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT NOT TOO COLD AND IT WONT LAST VERY LONG AS 
DEEP TROF QUICKLY LIFTS OUT. 

&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NC...NONE.             
.VA...NONE. 
.WV...NONE.
&&
$$

AMS/JDS