FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1010 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002 AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON THE MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVED SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THESE HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED FOR HAVING MOVED AWAY FROM THEIR UPPER SUPPORT...AND WITH THE DAY'S END. ONE CLUSTER REMAINS STRONG OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE UPPER KEYS WHERE MSAS SHOWS PEAK VALUES OF THETA-E AND THE LATEST (17Z) RUC SHOWS CONTINUED VORTICITY SUPPORT. OTHER MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE CLEARING GATEWAY ACCORDING TO NCEP. FINGERS CROSSED... OUR 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERLAIN BY A DEEP DRY LAYER. A CURIOUS FEATURE EXISTS AT ~500MB WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE A FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT AT 18000 FEET. NOCTURNAL COOLING TO 28C WILL RESULT IN A ~2C CAP WHICH SHOULD HOLD US TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE UPCOMING COASTAL ZONE ISSUANCE WILL REFLECT THIS DEGREE OF COVERAGE. THE NORTHEAST SURGE OFF THE MAINLAND NEEDS TO PLAY ITSELF OUT BEFORE OUR WINDS RETURN TO NORTHWEST ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THEREFORE I WILL SIMPLY INDICATE NORTH WINDS...AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS TO ACCORD WITH OUR VWP AND RECENT CMAN OBSERVATIONS. .EYW...NONE. DFM fl SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 900 PM MDT WED AUG 7 2002 FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST WITH CLEARING SOUTH AND WEST. IR AND VIS SHOWED BRIEF ISOLD RW- IN MALHEUR CO WHICH SHOULD DIE QUICKLY WITH IMMINENT SUNSET. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED EXCEPT IN MAGIC VLY WHERE BREEZY WEST WINDS LINGER BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS THERE. UPPER LOW NEAR ID/WA/ORE TRI-STATE BOUNDARY WOBBLES EAST PER LATEST RUC AS COLD VERY DRY (REO DEWPT 14F!) AIR FILTERS IN WITH NW UPPER FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED COOL (VALLEYS) TO UNSEASONABLY COLD (28-38F MTNS) LOWS WITH HIGHS AROUND 12F-8F BELOW NORMAL NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. .BOI...NONE. MILLS id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1030 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2002 UPDATED ZONES THIS MORNING FOR COOLER HIGHS EASTERN 2 GROUPS WITH AROUND 80 BY CMI AND 80 TO 85 SE. ALSO ADJUSTED ENE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 5 TO 15 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SE INSTEAD OF SUNNY. 1030 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES A COMFORTABLE ENE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL IL AGAIN TODAY. AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...10 AM READINGS ELEVATED TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MESOETA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS WHICH GIVES HIGHS LOWER 80S MUCH OF CWA WITH COOLEST READINGS AROUND 80 NE SECTION BY KCMI AND DANVILLE. RUC TEMPS SEEM A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. .ILX...NONE. $$ HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002 .UPDATED... UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING PERIOD. AT THIS TIME FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP COOL AIR...CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...SFC AND UPPER LOW NOW OVER GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND WELL HANDLED BY NWP MODELS. NXT 24 HOURS A BIT OF A CHANLLENGE WITH TAQ-RUC AND ETA INDICATING LOW LVL MARITIME AIRMASS ROTATING FM GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SWWD INTO NRN AND CNTL ME. TAQ-RUC KEEPS HIGHS IN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S N TO S TOMORROW WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL OVC. ETA IS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER...AVN A BIT DRIER AND WARMER YET. FCST REFLECTS SOME CONSENSUS UP NORTH (LOW 60S) WITH A LEAN TOWARDS MAV-AVN TOWARDS BGR ( MID 70S). MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS HIGH LAT RIDGING IN EAST USA WITH WSW FLOW OVER MAINE. A WEAK WARM FNT MAY BRING SOME CLDS ISOL SHRA TO FAR NORTH SAT MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL MON WHEN NXT S/W CLIPS REGION. BASICALLY...BASED ON 12Z AVN...AND TRENDS OF ECMWF/GEM WENT ABOVE MEX TEMPS SUN - WED. COASTAL WATERS...N WINDS 15 TO 20 TODAY AND 10 TO 15 TONIGHT. .CAR...NONE NORTON/NOUHAN me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 500 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP COOL AIR...CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...SFC AND UPPER LOW NOW OVER GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND WELL HANDLED BY NWP MODELS. NXT 24 HOURS A BIT OF A CHANLLENGE WITH TAQ-RUC AND ETA INDICATING LOW LVL MARITIME AIRMASS ROTATING FM GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SWWD INTO NRN AND CNTL ME. TAQ-RUC KEEPS HIGHS IN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S N TO S TOMORROW WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL OVC. ETA IS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER...AVN A BIT DRIER AND WARMER YET. FCST REFLECTS SOME CONSENSUS UP NORTH (LOW 60S) WITH A LEAN TOWARDS MAV-AVN TOWARDS BGR ( MID 70S). MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS HIGH LAT RIDGING IN EAST USA WITH WSW FLOW OVER MAINE. A WEAK WARM FNT MAY BRING SOME CLDS ISOL SHRA TO FAR NORTH SAT MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL MON WHEN NXT S/W CLIPS REGION. BASICALLY...BASED ON 12Z AVN...AND TRENDS OF ECMWF/GEM WENT ABOVE MEX TEMPS SUN - WED. COASTAL WATERS...N WINDS 15 TO 20 TODAY AND 10 TO 15 TONIGHT. .CAR...NONE COBB me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2002 CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND EFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FOCUS OF DISCUSSION A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ALONG 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES BUT DRY AIR HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT BAY. WILL GENERALLY USE RUC MODEL AND UW-MILWAUKEE MM5 (DOMAIN 2) AS GUIDANCE FOR UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING GIVEN THEIR HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL JET AND QPF PLACEMENT. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN CWA...ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. ADDITIONALLY...DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CWA WILL PROHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT ANY FARTHER EAST AND LIMIT INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER FAR WEST TO DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT BEST. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION TREND OVER PAST HOUR SUPPORTS THIS AS A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MN. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE FARTHER EAST GIVEN WIND FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS IS NORTHWESTERLY. WILL INTRODUCE CLOUDS INTO EASTERN ZONES LATER AND GO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WESTERN HALF. RUC AND MM5 BOTH SUPPORT THIS LOGIC. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE WEST...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE ON TRACK FOR EXPECTED HIGHS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE. REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER WORDING IN 2ND PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AFTERNOONS CLOUD COVER. .MQT...NONE. CVKING mi SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 920 AM MDT WED AUG 7 2002 UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AND STATE .SHORT TERM...APPARENT SHORTWAVE THAT CAUSED SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO N CENTRAL MT AS OF 15Z. BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPARENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA BY NOON. WILL DROP MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR N CENTRAL MT AND ALSO FOR A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE NW ZONES. RUC HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SW MT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LATEST NGM AND ETA ARE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS IN HAVING A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SW MT EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER SW MT SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AND MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL MT. FEEL ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS/AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL DO SO FOR SELECTED ZONES. THERE WERE HUGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA/NGM/AVN WITH THEIR TREATMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW. 06Z MESOETA STARTED TO COME AROUND TO THE AVN SOLUTION AND NOW 12Z ETA HAS AS WELL. BOTH ETA/AVN DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ID/SW MT THU AND TRACK IT BASICALLY E. AVN IS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE ETA HOWEVER. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN WETTING RAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS FOR THU INTO FRI. WILL MENTION SOME FORECAST VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. BLANK .EXTENDED...12Z ECMWF RUN NOT AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MRF MOVES AN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. EMANUEL .CCF NUMBERS GTF ER 068/048 064/046 072 08466 BNEBB 050/083 052/072 044/070 045/072 045 63111322222 CTB EW 065/045 064/044 069 08355 BNEBB 048/080 050/068 040/068 044/071 044 33111311122 HLN ER 073/051 068/048 073 08466 BBEBB 052/085 054/076 047/074 049/076 049 63111222222 BZN ER 074/048 070/045 074 08566 BBBBB 045/082 050/075 042/074 044/075 044 63111222222 WEY ER 070/042 062/038 068 08566 BBEBB 036/075 038/070 033/068 035/068 035 63111222222 DLN EW 072/046 067/044 072 08456 BBNBB 045/080 048/074 044/076 046/076 046 43111222222 HVR ER 074/052 070/050 074 08566 BNEBB 052/085 054/074 045/072 048/074 048 63111322222 LWT ER 075/048 066/046 073 08566 BBEBB 048/081 049/072 045/068 044/070 044 63111322222= .TFX...NONE. mt NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 905 PM PDT WED AUG 7 2002 SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED ELY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO AND WENT THROUGH WENDOVER SEVERAL HOURS AGO WITH WINDS BLOWING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE AT WENDOVER. THE RUC SHOWS SURFACE GRADIENT LESSENING AT WENDOVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WINDS HAVE PROBABLY PEAKED. CURRENT FORECAST OF 15-25 MPH WINDS A LITTLE WEAK BUT WITH ANTICIPATED DECREASING OF WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL LET FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST NV LATER TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECEASING WINDS WILL SEE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A SLOW WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND. .EKO...NONE. COLLINS nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 930 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2002 WINDS ARE INCREASING ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD AID IN MIXING WARMER...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER...AIR DOWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. STRATUS HAS LIFTED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF THE NE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SOME MID CLOUD IS DRIFTING INTO SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAY AFFECT HIGHS THERE TODAY. LATEST RUC AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z MESOETA SHOW INCREASING LOW LVL SHEAR AROUND 00Z WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. DRY MID LVL AIR OVER THE REGION THOUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES NOTED IN MESOETA DATA HARD TO PICK OUT IN WATER VAPOR BUT LIKELY LOCATED IN WRN NEBRASKA WITH ANOTHER IN NE NEW MEXICO. THESE ARE DRIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF OF UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. MESOETA ALSO INDICATING INCREASING 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MID LVL CAP WAS FAIRLY STG THIS MORNING BUT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVES WHILE H8 AND SFC BOUNDARIES EDGE INTO WRN SODAK. WITH INCREASING PWATS OUT WEST TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION LATE...BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA AS CAPES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FROM BUFKIT MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FOR NOW WILL NOT UPDATE TO INCLUDE CONVECTION OUT WEST. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS WESTERN AREAS COULD JUMP INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH STG MIXING. FOR NOW WILL PLAN NO UPDATES THOUGH. .ABR...NONE FAUCETTE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2002 FORECAST TROUBLES ARE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DECEPTION AMONGST THE MODELS MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. MODELS NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL RIGHT NOW WITH ALL BUT THE ETA GENERATING PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ETA OVERDOING PRECIP OVER OKLAHOMA. CONTROVERSIES ALSO SHOW UP WITH REGARD TO TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AVN SHOWING A COOL DOWN EACH DAY WITH THE ETA/NGM SHOWING LESS OF A COOLDOWN AND EVEN WARMING PER ETA MOS AT KHLC. WILL TRY AND SORT IT OUT WITH REASONING BELOW. TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...LOWER TO THE WEST AND EAST. COLD FRONT MARCHES INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CIN BEST FORCING PER 700-500 OMEGA MAINLY TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. FSL RUCII GENERATES SOME PRECIP A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ETA OMEGA AREA WHICH PUSHES INTO FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. WILL PULL POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. THTE-E AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT PRESSES TOWARD THE AREA. AHEAD OF IT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT BEST LIFT REMAINS ALONG THE THTE-E GRADIENT...RUNNING FROM KMCK-KGLD AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WITH UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND POPS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR WED READINGS...93-98. LOWS 60 TO 65 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 EAST. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSES SOUTH...REACHING THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN BORDERS OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. LIMITED CIN WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO REGENERATE PRECIP OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL TARGET HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S SOUTH AND AROUND 100 EAST BASED ON COMPROMISE BETWEEN NGM/ETA 850 TRENDS. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WINDS TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE DRY AND FINALLY A BIT COOLER. IT WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE 3 DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S EAST. AFTER REVIEWING MY TEMP PREDICTIONS IT APPEARS I WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ETA 2M GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND WARMER FWC/ETA MINS FOR LOWS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN I LEAN ON THE COOLER MAV. REMAINDER OF FORECAST STAND IN TACT. .GLD...NONE. DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 307 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2002 EQUIPMENT: KSGF 88D APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE AROUND 05Z IN WHICH SIGNAL NOISE IS OVERWHELMING RADAR RETURNS. PRODUCTS WILL BE SEVERE DEGRADED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. VERY PLEASANT AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS NOW COMFORTABLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EVEN WITH DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF FROM SGF WESTWARD. ANALYSIS OF THE 925MB THERMAL FIELD ON THE RUC INDICATES A RATHER STOUT W-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT DECOUPLED ARE REMAINING QUITE MILD...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SOME 10 DEGREES COLDER. THINGS SHOULD LEVEL OUT TOWARD SUNRISE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLACKEN...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENT TO EARLY AM TEMPERATURES. SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEAK SFC-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEUTRAL. WILL GENERALLY KNOCK YESTERDAY'S HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. OVERALL A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. FWC/MAV BLEND LOOKS KOSHER. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE OPTIMUM RADIATION COOLING WITH 55-60F READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN PROGGED DWPTS. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE NRN TIER STATES. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO MAKE ONE LAST SHOW BEFORE TRANSIENT FLOW PATTERN BRINGS US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLIES. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SERIOUS LACK OF MOISTURE PRECEDING SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONTAL ZONE...SO WILL KEEP AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK LOOKS REASONABLE. AS POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STRONGLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WILL ACCOMPANY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL BE E/NE OF THIS SYSTEM (ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY)...SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/MOISTURE DEFICIT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. DEPARTING JET WILL LEAVE SURFACE BOUNDARY HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA AS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT. INTERESTING TO SEE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION DEPICTED BY AVN AT 18Z MON PRECISELY WHERE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SITUATED THIS MORNING. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOTHER POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE US ON MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS SURE TO FOLLOW SUIT. THUS... AN ABNORMALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR AUGUST IS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RECEIPT OF AVN STOPPED BEYOND 114 HOURS...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FINAL ISC GRIDS OUT SHORTLY. THANKS ICT FOR COORD. .SGF... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. BOOKBINDER mo SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 330 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2002 ...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE SCALE MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HEART OF THE CONUS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ANOTHER TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING WESTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER...AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE -- GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB/700MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-15C AND 5C RESPECTIVELY. LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN SCNTRL ND...WITH COLD FRONT MEANDERING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WY. LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ND SFC LOW THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS OF SD AND NEB. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT 70 DEG DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST NEB. AS UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AS WELL. WITH LITTLE IF ANY PUSH OF SIGNIFICANCE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH WESTERN NEB AND WRN KS/ERN CO UNTIL LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL BE LIMITED...PROBABLY PRUDENT TO AT LEAST HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE N/W SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. 00Z ETA SUGGESTING A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP THROUGH WESTERN NEB LATE TONIGHT...WITH CORRESPONDING ENHANCEMENT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E INFLUX...IN ADDITION TO MODEL INDICATION OF APPROACH OF UPPER SPEED MAX OVERNIGHT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AMIDST HEIGHT FALLS OF UPPER TROUGH. BOTH THE 00Z ETA AND GFS THEN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY... WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. WILL UP THE RAIN CHANCES GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF COLD FRONT BEING CENTRALLY LOCATED THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT...STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MASS CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM ON FRIDAY. ETA KAIN-FRITSCH AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC-20 BOTH SUGGEST TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. CORRESPONDING POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY -- 00Z ETA INDICATING AXIS OF 2000+ J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR / AROUND 30 KTS 0-6 KM / AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN LINEAR FORCING...AND RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING/WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS IN PRESENCE OF ONLY MARGINAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLY MORE OF A THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL. COLD FRONT THEN DEPARTS EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...AS COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. .GID...NONE. GUYER ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1112 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2002 UPDATE CONCERNS FOCUS ON CLOUDS/TEMPS. WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AMPLIFIED MID UPR LVL PATTERN WITH A TROF FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...A RDG OVER CNTRL NOAM...AND A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPR MI IN NRLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW AHD OF THE RDG. SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOVG THRU PLAINS STATES PRODUCING SPOTTY CONVECTION FM NEBRASKA INTO SRN CANADA WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT AIDED BY 35-40 KT 850 MB JET NOSING OVR AREA. WK SHRTWV WHICH SLID OVR RDG LAST NIGHT STILL KEEPING BAND OF CLDS TOGETHER FM CNTRL ONTARIO INTO CNTRL U.P. AS PER VIS SATL LOOP. HWVR...THIS BAND SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS UPR RDG CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FM WEST. 12Z ETA SHOWS UPR RDG CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVR UPR MI THIS AFT AS TROF DIGS INTO NRN RCKYS. ASSOC DNVA...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH RDGG SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN BAND OF CLDS OVR CNTRL U.P. AS IT MOVES E. THUS...EXPECT PLENTY OF AFT SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB. USING 12Z GRB SNDG THIS WOULD YIELD INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER 80S...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREV FCST. CONSEQUENTLY...DIDN'T CHANGE MUCH IN WAY OF INLAND HIGH TEMPS. PARTLY SUNNY FCST STILL ON TRACK AS WELL. DID INCLUDE SOME LIGHT S-SW WINDS ON OVR WEST AND CNTRL ZONES ON BACKSIDE ON SFC RDG AXIS. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1020 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2002 DISC: MORNING LOWS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS...CAA FROM NRLY FLOW AND VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND LO TO THE N WILL CAUSE SC CU TO FORM THIS AFTN. NRLY ZONES COULD SEE A SPRINKLE...SNAPSHOT OF RUC SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP AT 13Z. LIGHT WINDS NRLY THIS MRNG WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDRESSING WINDS IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED BRUSHFIRE IN ONE OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY SHIFTING TO SW INTO THE WEEKEND. QUIET ON THE MARINE...HOWEVER, NEW MOON CAUSING SLIGHT RISE IN TIDES ESP NOTICABLE IN THE BACK BAYS. WILL RESEND ZONES TO FRESHEN THE WORDING. LITWIN/EBERWINE **** MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING WEAK VORT MOVING S THRU CWA MIDDAY/AFTN...AND WITH CONTD NLY CAA FLOW COMBINED WITH SOME CYCLONIC LIFT...FEEL WE SHUD AT LEAST HAVE A REPLAY OF MIDDAY/AFTN SC SPCLY ERN ZONES AS MSTR POOLS A BIT UNDER THE CAP. WL SAY BCMG PTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN...WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING BFR CLRG. WINDS SHUD AGAIN BE A BIT GUSTY FM THE N TDA BFR DECOUPLING TNGT...WITH SFC HI THEN HI BLDG OVR THE CWA FRI BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND LGT/VRBL WINDS. WL AGAIN COUNT ON A CBRZ CSTL ZONES IN THE AFTNS. NEXT PRECIP RETAINED FOR MIDWEEK...ALTHO IT MAY BE MORE TUE NITISH INTO WED INSTEAD OF WED INTO THU...BUT WED IS THE LAST DAY OF THE FCST ANYWAY SO NO CHGS NOW. NOTHING UP ON THE MARINE. MPO 76 51 78 53 / 10 0 0 0 ABE 81 54 82 57 / 10 0 0 0 RDG 82 55 83 59 / 10 0 0 0 PHL 84 62 85 63 / 10 0 0 0 12N 79 53 81 56 / 10 0 0 0 SMQ 82 57 83 61 / 10 0 0 0 TTN 83 59 84 62 / 10 0 0 0 MIV 81 56 82 56 / 10 0 0 0 ACY 79 63 80 63 / 10 0 0 0 ILG 83 60 84 62 / 10 0 0 0 DOV 81 58 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 GED 82 59 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 ESN 82 60 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 .PHI...NONE. pa SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 933 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2002 FORECAST ITEMS FOR TODAY ARE MAINLY CONCERNED WITH THE IMPACT OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF THE COAST. THIS INCLUDE RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITIES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE ENTIRE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TAKING THE SECOND POSSIBILITY FIRST...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE THE WATERSPOUT PROBLEM. ALREADY THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF TWO WATERSPOUTS OFF THE EAST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND. CONCERNING THE RAIN THREAT...FEEL THE CURRENT POPS ARE OKAY FOR MOST AREAS. WILL UP THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER JACKSON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES AND UP THE POPS TO LIKELY OVER BRAZORIA AND WHARTON COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO CURRENT TRENDS AND THE RUC FORECAST. PL-40 33 .HGX...NONE. tx