WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1245 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002 SURFACE DEW PTS OF 50+ DEGREES AND PW INCREASING FROM NMEX WITH DEEP CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER SAN JUAN MTNS..UNCOMPAHGRE AND AREAS SOUTH OF DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS. ONE SPOTTER S OF DRO REPORTED 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MIN. ANALYSIS AND RUC SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING BETWEEN NE NMEX AND SE UT HELPING PRODUCT SE WINDS OF 10- 20 MPH ASSISTING IN THE MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE 4-CRNRS. MODELS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS MOISTURE SURGE WITH ACTUAL SFC DEW PT VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN THE ETA AND WETTER AVN PROGGED DATA. TWO VORT MAXES ADDING TO THE CONVECTIVE MIX. ONE OVER NE AZ SPREADING CI CLOUDS SHIELD OVR SE UT AND SW CO. SECOND VORT OVER NE NMEX SLIDING TO WSW AROUND BOTTOM OF CO HIGH AND ASSISTING CONVECTION OVER CNTRL AND WRN NMEX ALONG WITH LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FCST FOR THIS AFTN'S TSTMS AND BLV ENUF THINGS HEADING TOWARD AND ALREADY OVER SW CO TO INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THEM LATER THIS EVENING. TUE...HIGHER MODEL PW AND SFC DEW PTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG CO/UT BORDER WITH AVN AVERAGED 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ETA. MODEL TIME/HTS SHOW PEAK MOISTURE AT 12Z TUE WITH DRYING THRUOUT THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT 4-CRNRS DRIES OUT MOST SLOWLY WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WILL CARRY HIR POPS OVER SRN CO/SERN UT TUE...LOWER OVER REST OF CWA...THO WILL EDGE THEM UP FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGH WOBBLES OVER THE AREA THRU WED AND THO BEST MOISTURE APPEARS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST ENUF FOR LOW GRADE AFTN/EVNG TSTMS IN THE MTNS. HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THUR WITH LITTLE CHG IN THE AIRMASS...BUT AVN SHOWS TWO VORT MAXES /WITH PROBABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/ RIDING OVER NE UT AND NW CO THU AFTN. CJC EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...LATEST MRF NOW SHOWING A FLATTER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SUPPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED MTN CONVECTION...WHICH WE CAN COVER WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW. RDG STARTS TO REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK... WITH THE RDG AXIS SETTING UP NEAR THE UTAH/COLORADO STATE LINE. CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. JDC .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 845 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 00Z KTLH SOUNDING STILL VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW AT 1.99 IN ...CAPE 1333 J/KG AND LI -2.3. NOT AS ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS DESPITE THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVERHEAD. CURRENTLY A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STRETCHES FROM HENRY COUNTY ALABAMA TO MITCHELL COUNTY GEORGIA AND IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST OVER FRANKLIN AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. 23Z RUC SHOWS A VORT MAX IN THIS AREA AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...MAY SEE MORE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT POPS ALL ZONES. PLAN ON KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR THE FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MARINE: WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET. SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. BARRY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 930 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 TCU AND SOME SCT TS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG SFC INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM NW TN INTO SRN IN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOWLY INCR 310K UPGLIDE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS (PER THE 9Z RUC FCST). RECENT LMK-MM5 DATA SHOWING MEAN STORM MOTION FROM 230 AT 8KTS AND UPGLIDE/MOISTURE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EWD, THEREFORE THIS SCT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFPLMK TO HAVE 30% POPS ALL ZONES TODAY, WITH ONLY AFTERNOON TS IN ERN ZONES. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THAT 6Z META SHOWING SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS, SUCH THAT BEST PRECIP MAY STAY N OF CWA THRU 12Z/TUE. MORE ON THIS LATER... SDF...NONE. SMALLCOMB ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 945 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 ...UPDATE... CHGD SKIES FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. SAT SHWG CI WHILE MID AND LWR CLDS DSNT FROM CWA. NUDGE MINS DOWN A TAD C/COD AND ISS. REST OF EARLIER PKG WELL STATED. ...PREVIOUS DISC AND REASONING... ...90-95 NOON-3PM TUE ALL SNE WITH SFC TD AT 21Z NR 75 IN CT THEN WDSPRD 0.5 TO 1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 21Z TUE THRU 16Z WED.... SVR: EXPECT SVRL SVR STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS... THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL. LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO THE LOW OR MID 70S...USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE HAIL. WBZ SHUD B NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL TT FROM THE GFS REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB. EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER TRANSFER. HIGH CAPE MAY PRODUCE MORE EXTENSIVE SVR WX EPISODE THAN EXPECTED. WE/VE NOTED ASOS 40 KT EVENTS DTW-BKL TDY WITH WIND DAMAGE IN W NYS... ALL THIS WITH WIND FIELDS LESS FAVORABLE THAN MODLED FOR SNE TOMORROW. SO... POTENTIAL FOR SVR TOMORROW BUT NOT YET CONVINCED HOW WDPSRD. SEE SWODY2 AND PROBS FOR 50 KTS. SKYWARN: AS A PRECAUTION...WE ANTICPATE THE NEED FOR DIGGING FOR MARGINAL REPORTS BEGINNING SOMEWHERE IN THE 2-4P TIME FRAME TUE AFTN. QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+ IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12 HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5". GARDENS IN SE NEW ENGLAND MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT DOUSING... MAYBE TOO MUCH TOO FAST TUE EVENING THO CC RAINS MAY STILL BE PALTRY AS COMPARED TO PRIMARY TARGET REGION FROM IJD-PVD-PYM. GFE: USED ETA FCST SFC TDS BASED ON MID - UPPER 70S SEEN UPSTREAM TDY FROM OH VLY TO SRN PA. BLV THIS WILL VERIFY BETTERN THAN LOWER GFS SFC TDS. TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME CNTRL NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE. LOW PROB EEN-ORE NWWD. LOW STRATUS FORMS RAPIDLY ALONG AND SE OF AN IJD ORH-BOS LINE IN THE 03Z VCNTY. TUE: LIKE THE NGM TEMPS BASED ON UPSTREAM TODAY AND 18C 8H TO START THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH HT INDX 100-102 I95 NWWD IN THE VALLEY/SEA LVL LOCATIONS 16-21Z. THEN BKN BND OF OF HVY STORMS LIKELY. ENHANCED WORDING POSTED FOR LATE TUE. GUIDANCE POPS RAISED IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME FRAME. TUE NIGHT: CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING AS CURRENTLY FCST ARD MIDNIGHT. WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES. CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY CHILLY. NE WIND TRANSFER INTERIOR IS 950-900MB 20-25KT WHILE WIDE OPEN E MA COAST SHUD GRAB 20-25 KT GST FROM BL WIND. THU: GFS -2SD OF 10O0-850 TKNS. GOING TO BE CHILLY DESPITE RISING 500MB HTS AND ASSTD 1000-500 TKNS. COOL POOL TRAPPED AND LEFT BEHIND HERE IN THE 1000-850 FIELD. FRI: 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNNING ANOTHER LOW NEWD TO AFFECT SNE WITH RAIN APPEARS OUT OF SORTS WITH THE EC/UK AND UNSURE WHETHER TO BLV THIS SOLN ATTM. SAT-MON: NCEP GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A SIG WARMUP WITH 1 DAY OF 90 POSSIBLE EARLY NXT WK...BUT TIMING AND EVOLUTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MARINE: ETA/GFS WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD FOR WDSPRD GUSTINESS 25 KTS TUE AFTN. NWR: FIXED CAMP EDWARDS. CHAFF: 88D CONTS JUST S OF SNE AT 2020Z. SFZ: APPEARS TO B RUNNING 4F TOO COLD. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SCA MAY B NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE. $$ DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL DAY PKG.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 512 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 ...90-95 NOON-3PM TUE ALL SNE WITH SFC TD AT 21Z NR 75 IN CT THEN WDSPRD 0.5 TO 1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 21Z TUE THRU 16Z WED.... SVR: EXPECT SVRL SVR STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS... THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL. LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO THE LOW OR MID 70S...USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE HAIL. WBZ SHUD B NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL TT FROM THE GFS REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB. EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER TRANSFER. HIGH CAPE MAY PRODUCE MORE EXTENSIVE SVR WX EPISODE THAN EXPECTED. WE/VE NOTED ASOS 40 KT EVENTS DTW-BKL TDY WITH WIND DAMAGE IN W NYS... ALL THIS WITH WIND FIELDS LESS FAVORABLE THAN MODLED FOR SNE TOMORROW. SO... POTENTIAL FOR SVR TOMORROW BUT NOT YET CONVINCED HOW WDPSRD. SEE SWODY2 AND PROBS FOR 50 KTS. SKYWARN: AS A PRECAUTION...WE ANTICPATE THE NEED FOR DIGGING FOR MARGINAL REPORTS BEGINNING SOMEWHERE IN THE 2-4P TIME FRAME TUE AFTN. QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+ IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12 HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5". GARDENS IN SE NEW ENGLAND MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT DOUSING... MAYBE TOO MUCH TOO FAST TUE EVENING THO CC RAINS MAY STILL BE PALTRY AS COMPARED TO PRIMARY TARGET REGION FROM IJD-PVD-PYM. GFE: USED ETA FCST SFC TDS BASED ON MID - UPPER 70S SEEN UPSTREAM TDY FROM OH VLY TO SRN PA. BLV THIS WILL VERIFY BETTERN THAN LOWER GFS SFC TDS. TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME CNTRL NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE. LOW PROB EEN-ORE NWWD. LOW STRATUS FORMS RAPIDLY ALONG AND SE OF AN IJD ORH-BOS LINE IN THE 03Z VCNTY. TUE: LIKE THE NGM TEMPS BASED ON UPSTREAM TODAY AND 18C 8H TO START THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH HT INDX 100-102 I95 NWWD IN THE VALLEY/SEA LVL LOCATIONS 16-21Z. THEN BKN BND OF OF HVY STORMS LIKELY. ENHANCED WORDING POSTED FOR LATE TUE. GUIDANCE POPS RAISED IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME FRAME. TUE NIGHT: CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING AS CURRENTLY FCST ARD MIDNIGHT. WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES. CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY CHILLY. NE WIND TRANSFER INTERIOR IS 950-900MB 20-25KT WHILE WIDE OPEN E MA COAST SHUD GRAB 20-25 KT GST FROM BL WIND. THU: GFS -2SD OF 10O0-850 TKNS. GOING TO BE CHILLY DESPITE RISING 500MB HTS AND ASSTD 1000-500 TKNS. COOL POOL TRAPPED AND LEFT BEHIND HERE IN THE 1000-850 FIELD. FRI: 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNNING ANOTHER LOW NEWD TO AFFECT SNE WITH RAIN APPEARS OUT OF SORTS WITH THE EC/UK AND UNSURE WHETHER TO BLV THIS SOLN ATTM. SAT-MON: NCEP GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A SIG WARMUP WITH 1 DAY OF 90 POSSIBLE EARLY NXT WK...BUT TIMING AND EVOLUTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MARINE: ETA/GFS WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD FOR WDSPRD GUSTINESS 25 KTS TUE AFTN. NWR: FIXED CAMP EDWARDS. CHAFF: 88D CONTS JUST S OF SNE AT 2020Z. SFZ: APPEARS TO B RUNNING 4F TOO COLD. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SCA MAY B NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE. $$ DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..MID AFTN PRELIM DISC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1222 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 ...90 TO 93F VALLEY NON MARINE INFLUENCED COASTAL PLAIN HEAT THIS AFTERNOON AND 430PM PKG WILL REPEAT THIS TUE AFTN PVD-BOS THEN WDSPRD 0.5 TO 1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 20Z TUE THRU 18Z WED.... NWR: WE'VE HAD NUMEROUS CALLS REGARDING CAMP EDWARDS. OUR ELECTRONICS PERSONNEL ARE WORKING ON IT ATTM AS ITS BEEN PROBLEMATCI FOR ABT 48 HRS. HOPE TO HAVE IT RTS LATE TDY. CHAFF: 88D JUST FORCED INTO PCON MODE...PROB BY CHAFF BEARING DOWN DONW AT ACK AT 1612Z. FINAL AFD ARD 445 PM AFTER FINAL CK OF ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING 18Z ETA AND RUC FOR THE FCST THRU 00Z WED. MODELS: 12Z NCEP MODELS REVIEWED THRU 48 HRS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THE ETA R1 SOLN TUE NIGHT AND WED AS ITS LOW LVL RH APPEARS FAR TOO DRY FOR THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND THE HIGH PW AIR THAT THE COOL BL AIR UNDERRUNS. SVR: LOW PROB SVR TUESDAY SUSPECT 1 OR 2 STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS...THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL. GETTING LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO THE LOW OR MID 70S ARE USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE HAIL. WBZ SHUD B NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL TT FROM THE GFS REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB. EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER TRANSFER. FOLLOW LATE DISCS INCLUDING SWODY2 RELEASE AT 1730Z AND LATER. SKYWARN: AS A PRECAUTION...WE ANTICPATE THE NEED FOR DIGGING FOR MARGINAL REPORTS BEGINNING SOMEWHERE IN THE 2-4P TIME FRAME TUE AFTN. QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+ IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12 HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5". MORE ON THIS IN THE RVDBOS AND LATE DAY AFD. GARDENS IN SE NEW ENGLAND MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT DOUSING...MAYBE TOO MUCH TOO FAST TUE EVENING THO CC RAINS MAY STILL BE PALTRY AS COMPARED TO REGIONS FROM IJD-PVD-PYM. TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE AND EITHER ADDING AT 11A OR 4PM PKG. AVN MORE COPNSERVATIVE AND GOING WITH THIS FOR LOW PROB SHWR OR TSTM EEN-ORE WWD. TUE: SUSPECT WILL ADD 2-4F TO THE CURRENT FCST TEMPS WITH +18C AT 8H TO START THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH HI INTO 97-100 RANGE VCNTY BOS... THEN A WALL OF WATER LATE AFTN. WILL ENHANCE WORDING AT 4P FOR LATE TUE WITH RW+ AND LIGHTNING. ALSMOST CERTAINLY WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN 4PM PKG AT LEAST ALL REGION NW OF BOS-BDL LN. INTERIOR SNE HEATING ALLOWS TRANSFER DESCENT FM ~850MB...IE 25KTS ENTIRE FA...COASTAL DUE TO STRONGER GRADIENT AND INTERIOR DUE TO TRANSFER. TUE NIGHT: CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING AS CURRENTLY FCST ARD MIDNIGHT. WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES. CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY CHILLY. NE WIND TRANSFER INTERIOR IS 950-900MB 20-25KT WHILE WIDE OPEN E MA COAST SHUD GRAB 20-25 KT G FROM BL WIND. THU: GFS -2SD OF 10O0-850 TKNS. GOING TO BE CHILLY DESPITE RISING 500MB HTS AND ASSTD 1000-500 TKNS. COOL POOL TRAPPED AND LEFT BEHIND HERE IN THE 1000-850 FIELD. FRI: 00Z/06Z GFS RUNNING ANOTHER LOW NEWD TO AFFECT SNE WITH RAIN APPEARS OUT OF SORTS WITH THE EC/UK AND UNSURE WHETHER TO BLV THIS SOLN ATTM. SAT-MON: NOT CONCENTRATING MUCH ON TEMPS NEXT WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A SIG WARMUP WITH 1 DAY OF 90 POSSIBLE EARLY NXT WK...BUT TIMING AND EVOLUTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MARINE: ONE BURST OF WIND HAS PASSED THRU NEARBY ETL PROFILERS. WIND MAY COME UP AGAIN DURING MID AFTN HEATING TO 1 OR 2 HRS OF 25-28KTS ALONG MA AND RI COAST BUT FOR NOW PERSISTENT SCA CONDS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE AFTN. THEREFORE A SMALL DOWN GRADE FOR TODAY FOR PROBABLISTICALY MOST LIKELY...DURATION NON QUALIFIED SCA EVENT. ETA WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD FOR WDSPRD GUSTINESS 25 KTS IN THE AFTN. 12Z GWW N/A AS OF THIS WRITING. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SCA LIKELY WILL B BE NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE. $$ DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..PRELIM.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 959 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 ...90 TO 95F VALLEY NON MARINE INFLUENCED COASTAL PLAIN HEAT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD B REPEATED TUE AFTN PVD-BOS THEN WDSPRD 0.5 TO 1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 20Z TUE THRU 18Z WED.... SVR: LOW PROB SVR TUESDAY SUSPECT 1 OR 2 STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS...THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL. GETTING LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO THE LOW OR MID 70S ARE USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE HAIL. WBZ SHUD B NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL TT FROM THE GFS REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB. EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER TRANSFER. QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+ IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12 HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5". MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTN RVDBOS AND AFD. THIS AFTN: FCST TEMPS PROB RAISED 2-4F IN 11 AM PKG. HI SHUD RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S MID AFTN. TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE AND EITHER ADDING AT 11A OR 4PM PKG. TUE: SUSPECT WILL ADD 2-4F TO THE CURRENT FCST TEMPS WITH +18C AT 8H TO START THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH HI INTO 97-100 RANGE VCNTY BOS... THEN A WALL OF WATER LATE AFTN. PROB NEED TO ADD ENHANCED RW+ AND LIGHTNING IN THE 4PM PKG IF NOT 11 AM. ALSMOST CERTAINLY WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN 11 AM PKG AT LEAST ALL REGION NW OF BOS-BDL LN. TUE NIGHT: CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING TWD DAWN. WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES. CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY CHILLY. MARINE: ONE BURST OF WIND HAS PASSED THRU NEARBY ETL PROFILERS. WIND MAY COME UP AGAIN DURING MID AFTN HEATING TO 1 OR 2 HRS OF 25-28KTS ALONG MA AND RI COAST BUT FOR NOW PERISISTENT SCA CONDS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE AFTN. THEREFORE A SMALL DOWN GRADE FOR TODAY FOR PROBABLISTICALY MOST LIKELY...DURATION NON QUALIFIED SCA EVENT. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SCA MAY BE NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE. $$ DRAG ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1045 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWFA ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE STILL HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN... SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW/N AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S AND 50S. LATEST RUC HAS 12Z DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 55 IN THE NRN CWFA TO 65 SOUTH... A WELCOME CHANGE. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE FCST AS SOON AS SHOWERS ON RADAR EXIT JXN COUNTY. WINDS MAY NEED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL. MEADE .GRR...NONE. mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BACK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM 20Z TO 00Z...PER THE LATEST RUC SOLUTION. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS ALREADY ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FROM SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MODIFIED 12Z KDTX SOUNDING FOR A TEMP OF 94 AND DEWPOINT OF 75 GIVES A CAPE OF 5200 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS ON THE 12Z RAOBS. SO ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT THAT STRONG...NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL AND THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO SPELL GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. TIMING THE ONSET OF THE STORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL AID DEVELOPMENT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT HEAT INDICES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT ATTAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A GOOD BIT OF CLEARING UPSTREAM THOUGH...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. .DTX...HEAT ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON... MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083 CONSIDINE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1115 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW UPR TROFFING OVR SCNTRL CAN ON TOP OF BROAD RDG ACRS THE SRN CONUS. RIBBON OF MSTR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FNT AHD OF THE UPR TROF EXTENDS FM THE CNTRL PLAINS NE INTO THE CWA. 12Z KGRB SDNG WITHIN THIS MOIST AIRSTREAM SHOWS KINX 34 (H85 DWPT 14C)...BUT A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THAT LIMITS INSTABILITY DESPITE SFC DWPTS ARND 70. SO JUST SCT SHRA...NO TSRA...IN ADVANCE OF FNT OVR THE ERN ZNS ATTM IN ADVANCE OF FNT. THESE SHRA MOVG STEADILY EWD WITH BNDRY. THERE IS QUITE A GRADIENT OF MSTR ALF BEHIND FNT...GOES DERIVED SDNG FOR IWD AT 10Z INDICATES KINX 23 AND 12Z MPX SDNG INDICATES KINX 20. SO SKIES CLR FOLLOWING FROPA AS FAIRLY STRG WLY FLOW IN THE NW GRT LKS (12Z INL SDNG SHOWS WNW WNDS ARND H85 UP TO 35 KT) PUSHES DRY AIR EWD. HOWEVER...LLVL MSTR IS MUCH SLOWER TO FALL OFF...SFC DWPT STILL IN UPR 50S OVR THE WRN ZNS. THERE IS ANOTHER SHARP SFC-H85 TROF MOVG INTO NRN MN FM ONTARIO ATTM IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DROPPING S THRU MANITOBA AS DEPICTED ON WV LOOP. SOME SHRA OCCURRING OVR FAR WRN ONTARIO JUST N OF CYQT...BUT H85-6 LAPSE RATES NO STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC/KINX 22 LIMITING INTENSITY OF CNVCTN. CU FIELD EXPANDING IN NRN MN ATTM AS H85 RAOBS SHOW TEMPS FALLING AT THAT LVL EVEN IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY TROF ABV SFC HTG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE SHRA TRENDS ACRS THE E THIS MRNG...MAX TEMPS...AND THEN PCPN CHCS AGAIN LATER TDAY IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY TROF NOW APRCHG NRN MN. 12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS UPR TROFFING BRUSHING THRU THE NW GRT LKS THIS AFTN AS FIRST COLD FNT PUSHES SE AND SECONDARY TROF DROPS S INTO CWA. UPR DRYING CONTS TO SPRD E...WITH RUC SHOWING KINX DROPPING WELL INTO 20S OVR CWA DURG AFTN. XPCT LINGERING SHRA TO BE OUT OF ERN ZNS BEFORE NOON. RUC INDICATES MORE SHRA WL DVLP LATER TDAY IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY TROF WITH CAPES AT MNM RISING TOWARD 2000 J/KG BY LATE IN DAY. HOWEVER...RUC INDICATES DWPT WL BE 71...WHICH APPEARS UNRSNBL CONSIDERING DRYING OBSVD TO THE W...FALLING H85 TEMP IN ADVANCE OF TROF...AND FCST WLY WND IN THE LLVLS. 06Z ETA MODEL LOOKS MORE RSNBL IN CONFINING SOME LGT PCPN TO KEWEENAW ZNS WITH MANITOBA VORT LOBE BRUSHING ONLY THAT PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARPENING INVRN ARND H7 OVR CWA ABV WELL MIXED PBL WITH ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES. SO EVEN THOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL BE STRG ENUF TO CAP CNVCTN...LOOK FOR SOME SC AS MODEST LLVL MSTR MIXES OUT UNDER INVRN. THIS FCST CONSISTENT WITH EXPANDING CU FIELD OBSVD IN ADVANCE OF TROF NOW IN NRN MN AND FALLING H85 TEMPS FCST. MIXING UP TO H85 (ADD 14C TO FCST H85 TEMP) SUGS TMAX WL REACH AS HI AS LO 80S ACRS SE ZNS...WHERE INCRSG WLY FLOW WL SQUASH LK MI BREEZE. THIS FLOW WL ENHANCE LK SUP MODERATION/COOLING ACRS THE W. .MQT...NONE. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 950 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002 950 PM... CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PREDICTED BY ETA AND RUC FOR REST OF THE NIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. REMOVED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL CATEGORIES ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF AREA. ALSO HAD TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES... AS TEMPERATURES WHERE RAIN OCCURRED ONLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE FORECAST MINS. IT DOESN'T APPEAR AS IF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES MORE OR LESS DECREASE THROUGH 800 MB. SF 342 PM... NOT MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNINGS THINKING. COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAVE PROMPTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR PULSE SEVERE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST. BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW IS QUITE WEAK SO STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...THEREFORE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AREA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP...SO WILL CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. NRR 430 AM... MAIN CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVE TILT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IN WESTERLIES FROM MN THROUGH NE AT 00Z WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTH IS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. COOL FRONT HAS PROGRESSED TO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIP OF MISSOURI THIS MORNING. EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IS ALSO HELPING THE FRONT TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO LAST COUPLE HOURS AND IS FITTING THE 3 HOUR QPF FROM OUR LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA MODEL (WSETA) QUITE WELL. ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE HINTING AT CONTINUED MOVEMENT OF FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ETA AND WSETA ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN REDEVELOPING IT ALONG THE FRONT AROUND MID-DAY. I AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN 2/3S OF CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TOUGH. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY SOUTH OF A PAOLA TO BOONVILLE LINE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND POOLING OF DEWPOINTS...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO GET THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WILL MAKE IT QUITE HOT AGAIN. TIMING OF FRONT...REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH HIGHS AND PLAY A ROLE IN THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK. AFTER TODAY...AREA COOLS SLIGHTLY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH EAST COAST TROUGH. RESULT IS A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW TRANSITORY SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. BROWNING .EAX... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. mo SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 840 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002 CORRECTED CCF NUMBERS .SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH SKY CONDITION FORECAST TO COVER CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS MOVE THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MT BY MORNING...AND KEEP LOW QPF AMOUNTS IN THE AREA AS WELL. WILL ALSO WORD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT. FURTHER SOUTH...MAIN CONVECTIVE ENERGY HAS MOVED INTO WYOMING...WILL UPDATE THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TO DECREASE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL EXAMINE MOS GUIDANCE ONCE IT BECOMES AVAILABLE. MPJ .EXTENDED...NEWEST AVN RUN COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CURRENT SCENARIO KEEPS NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEVELOPS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF MONTANA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASE TO SCATTERED POPS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH SOME COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. MPJ .CCF NUMBERS GTF BB 055/085 058/088 058 13123 BBBTB 085/053 082/051 083/053 082/052 084 12222222321 CTB BB 049/082 056/085 056 13011 BBBTB 085/050 079/051 080/050 079/051 081 11122222321 HLN TT 058/088 060/086 058 13123 BBBTB 086/054 085/054 086/055 084/055 085 22222222321 BZN TT 053/088 055/086 055 13234 BBBTB 086/052 084/053 085/052 082/053 084 23222222321 WEY TT 046/082 046/082 043 13234 BBBTB 082/044 077/042 079/043 075/042 078 22222222321 DLN TT 052/088 052/086 052 13134 BBBTB 086/051 085/052 084/053 082/051 085 23222222321 HVR BB 052/086 056/088 058 13011 BBBTB 086/055 087/053 086/055 083/052 086 22122222321 LWT TT 054/081 056/084 055 13124 BBBTB 084/052 083/051 082/053 079/051 082 22222222321= .TFX...NONE mt SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002 WILL UPDATE ZONES AND STATE FORECAST .SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH SKY CONDITION FORECAST TO COVER CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS MOVE THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MT BY MORNING...AND KEEP LOW QPF AMOUNTS IN THE AREA AS WELL. WILL ALSO WORD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT. FURTHER SOUTH...MAIN CONVECTIVE ENERGY HAS MOVED INTO WYOMING...WILL UPDATE THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TO DECREASE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL EXAMINE MOS GUIDANCE ONCE IT BECOMES AVAILABLE. MPJ .EXTENDED...NEWEST AVN RUN COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CURRENT SCENARIO KEEPS NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEVELOPS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF MONTANA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASE TO SCATTERED POPS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH SOME COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. MPJ .CCF NUMBERS GTF BB 055/085 058/088 058 13023 BBBTB 085/053 082/051 083/053 082/052 084 12222222321 CTB BB 049/082 056/085 056 13011 BBBTB 085/050 079/051 080/050 079/051 081 11122222321 HLN TT 058/088 060/086 058 13123 BBBTB 086/054 085/054 086/055 084/055 085 22222222321 BZN TT 053/088 055/086 055 13434 BBBTB 086/052 084/053 085/052 082/053 084 23222222321 WEY TT 046/082 046/082 043 13634 BBBTB 082/044 077/042 079/043 075/042 078 22222222321 DLN TT 052/088 052/086 052 13434 BBBTB 086/051 085/052 084/053 082/051 085 23222222321 HVR BB 052/086 056/088 058 13011 BBBTB 086/055 087/053 086/055 083/052 086 22122222321 LWT TT 054/081 056/084 055 13124 BBBTB 084/052 083/051 082/053 079/051 082 22222222321= .TFX...NONE mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1228 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 TRWS QUICKLY BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. LATEST LAPS (RUC BASED) ANALYSES OF CAPE VLAUES SHOW 3800 J/KG BULLSEYE OVER CENTRAL LK ERIE WITH ALL OF WRN NEW YORK NOW ABOVE 2500 J/KG (AGAIN...BASED ON RUC). HAVE UPDATED WRN SRN TIER TO REMOVE TIMING. REMAINDER OF PACKAGE LEFT INTACT...EARLIER AFD LEFT BELOW. HERE WE GO AGAIN...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. I SAY MAJORITY BECAUSE THE CURRENT RW/TRW ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN LK ONTARIO MAY PREVENT THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ACHIEVING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL TEMP OF LOWER 90S. HAVE SHADED THEIR TEMPS DOWNWARDS A BIT TO REFLECT THIS IN UPDATE. LATEST RUC40 PROJECTS CAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG FROM ROC TO OSWEGO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN 500MB TEMPS AND CONTINUITY OF CAPE VALUES FROM LAST EVENINGS ETA AND 06Z MESO ETA. IN ANY CASE...CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WE LACK A TRIGGER TO GET ANY USE FROM THIS POTENTIAL ENERGY. THE ONLY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. INLAND TEMPS OF 90 TO 95 WITH LK TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WILL CERTAINLY HELP IN THE FORMATION OF BOUNDAIRES...WITH STRONG MECHANICAL ASSISTANCE FROM A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND OFF LK ERIE. THIS STRONG SW WIND SHOULD PROTECT AREAS FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA FROM TRW...BUT ACTIVITY ON ITS BOUNDAIRES MAY BE ENHANCED. RUC40 PICKS UP ON THE SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THIS WIND. CURRENT KBUF RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY ALONG THE NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTY LAKE SHORE...RIGHT ALONG WHERE THE LK ERI BOUNDARY WOULD BE IN PLACE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SAG SOUTH A BIT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF TO BAT CORRIDOR. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AS PW'S HAVE CLIMBED TO 2 INCHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABV 14K ARE NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH HIGH (AND "FAT") CAPE VALUES IN PLACE...SMALL HAIL NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED. KBUF RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SW ACROSS NIAGARA AND GENESEE COUNTIES. THIS IS A RESULT FROM THE LK ONTARIO STORMS...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS OVER THE TONAWANDAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUF...NONE. RSH ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1015 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 REMNANTS OF MCS THAT FORMED OVER ONTARIO LAST EVENING ARE WANING INTO SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND I EXPECT LTL FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. NRN ZONES WILL BE KEPT PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS DESTABILIZATION AND OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD KEEP ACTIVITY REGENERATING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...SYR ALREADY CHECKING IN AT 84 DEGS AT 10 AM...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...CLOSER TO MAV/FWC/ETA GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...WILL BRING A BIT MORE SUN INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NUDGE TEMPS IN THE SRN TIER TO AROUND 90. VRY LTL FORCING AVAIL TO TAP INTO THE UNSTABLE ATMOS TAFTN BUT 09Z RUC DOES INDICATE SOME MCONVG AND RESULTING QPF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES NOTED FROM MCS..SO A LTL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ON THESE FEATURES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL BACK OFF THE IMPLIED CATEGORICAL WORDING OF "SCATTERED" COVERAGE AND LOWER TSRA CHANCES A BIT OVER THE REST OF CNY AND NEPA FCST AREA. MAIN FRONT AND UPR SUPPORT IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF AREA AND I SUSPECT THAT MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING SYSTEM INTO THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FAST AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING ALL SUMMER. WILL CHECK TRENDS OF 12Z RUNS BEFORE MAKING TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ATTM I ANTICIPATE SLOWING DOWN FROPA AND PRECIP BY 6 HOURS OR SO WHICH WOULD GIVE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND NOT LATE TONIGHT. MORE ON THIS WITH AFTERNOON PKG. WRKZON AVAIL IN AWIPS. .BGM...NONE. BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1012 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 HERE WE GO AGAIN...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. I SAY MAJORITY BECAUSE THE CURRENT RW/TRW ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN LK ONTARIO MAY PREVENT THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ACHIEVING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL TEMP OF LOWER 90S. HAVE SHADED THEIR TEMPS DOWNWARDS A BIT TO REFLECT THIS IN UPDATE. LATEST RUC40 PROJECTS CAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG FROM ROC TO OSWEGO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN 500MB TEMPS AND CONTINUITY OF CAPE VALUES FROM LAST EVENINGS ETA AND 06Z MESO ETA. IN ANY CASE...CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WE LACK A TRIGGER TO GET ANY USE FROM THIS POTENTIAL ENERGY. THE ONLY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. INLAND TEMPS OF 90 TO 95 WITH LK TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WILL CERTAINLY HELP IN THE FORMATION OF BOUNDAIRES...WITH STRONG MECHANICAL ASSISTANCE FROM A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND OFF LK ERIE. THIS STRONG SW WIND SHOULD PROTECT AREAS FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA FROM TRW...BUT ACTIVITY ON ITS BOUNDAIRES MAY BE ENHANCED. RUC40 PICKS UP ON THE SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THIS WIND. CURRENT KBUF RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY ALONG THE NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTY LAKE SHORE...RIGHT ALONG WHERE THE LK ERI BOUNDARY WOULD BE IN PLACE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SAG SOUTH A BIT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF TO BAT CORRIDOR. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AS PW'S HAVE CLIMBED TO 2 INCHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABV 14K ARE NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH HIGH (AND "FAT") CAPE VALUES IN PLACE...SMALL HAIL NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED. KBUF RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SW ACROSS NIAGARA AND GENESEE COUNTIES. THIS IS A RESULT FROM THE LK ONTARIO STORMS...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS OVER THE TONAWANDAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUF...NONE. RSH ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1045 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE ON PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST LIKE TO BE INVOLVED WITH FINE TUNING WINDS AND TEMPS BUT SO FAR BOTH ELEMENTS ARE WITHIN SPEC AND ZFP UPDATE NOT NEEDED ATTM. MARINE: BUBBLE SFC HIGH OVER AREA HAS KEPT WINDS LIGHT/VRBL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND BEING ABSORBED INTO BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN. LATEST RUC40 HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL USE TO REINITIALIZE FOR UPDATE. .MHX...NONE. COLBY/JBM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1050 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002 ...LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SCORCHER TODAY... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WARM SW BREEZES TODAY ALL POINT TO A HAZY...HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS UP A NOTCH AND REDUCE CLOUDS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WAS ISSUED EARLIER. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAT INDICES APPROACHING ADVISORY CATEGORY ACROSS LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS T/TDS PROGGED FOR LATER TODAY GIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 104F. SPC HAS NORTHERN AREAS UNDER SLIGHT RISK SO WILL TINT WORDING TO POSSIBLE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL ALSO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ON LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. REST OF CWA WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. .CTP...SPS FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER NORTHERN PA. SPS FOR SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY FOR HEAT INDICES APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. DIRIENZO ...PREVIOUS AFD... LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHEAR AXIS DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS AREA OF LIFT HAS BROKEN THE CAP AND TOUCHED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. 00 UTC ETA INDICATES THIS AXIS SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN HALF OF PA AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.5") WILL CARRY SCATTERED POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE HIGH 90S...SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WARRANTED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUED TONIGHT AS LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARRIVES. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AND SCATTERED THUNDER FOR MOST SECTIONS DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...SO SCATTERED POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST ZONE CUTS ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND STUCK CLOSE TO MOS POPS/TEMPS IN EXTENDED. WORK ZONES ALREADY SENT AS PHLWRKMIS. FCSTID = 7 MDT 91 73 90 71 / 20 30 60 60 IPT 93 71 87 64 / 30 50 70 60 BFD 89 69 80 56 / 50 50 60 30 JST 87 71 82 63 / 30 50 70 60 AOO 91 71 86 66 / 20 50 70 60 UNV 89 70 84 64 / 30 50 70 60 SEG 92 72 89 67 / 20 50 70 60 LNS 90 73 90 73 / 20 30 60 60 THV 91 74 90 72 / 20 30 60 60 DEVOIR pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 845 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002 CLOUDS DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING AS PER FORECAST. CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST RESULTING IN SOME RESIDUAL BLOW OFF CLOUDS EDGING INTO TH EWRN PORTIONS OF SODAK ATTM. WITH MID LVL RIDGE IN PLACE THIS ACTIVITY LMAY DISSIPATE IN THE SUBSIDENCE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NEW RUC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND DRIFTING EAST...ALLOWING ENOUGH ENERGY TO MOVE EAST FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN CWA. WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY DUE TO LESS THAN FAVORABLE LOW LVL WIND PROFILES...LACK OF LLJ AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...MAY SEE SOME CLOUD MAKE IT INTO THE WRN CWA BY MORNING. WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS OUT WEST BY MORNING. .ABR...NONE. FAUCETTE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 245 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE 500MB RUC SHOWS ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER MOB ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. WET WX PATTERN CONTINUES AS MAIN WX FEATURES CHANGE LITTLE. THE UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY WEST INTO AL WED AND WEAKEN THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO AL/GA BEFORE STALLING AS A WAVE TRACKS NE UP IT ALONG THE APALACHINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH PW'S NEAR 2 IN AND CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG THRU WED AS A DEEP SW-W FLOW PUMPS IN GULF MOISTURE. NO CLEAR SEA BREEZE REGIMES ARE EXPECTED AS WX PATTERN REMAINS DISTURBED. DESPITE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH HIGHEST QPFS REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA PORTION OF THE CWA. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS. MARINE: THE BURMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS WL CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF WATERS MAINTAINING A GENERAL LIGHT SW-W FLOW ALTHOUGH WL SPLIT MARINE ZONES EAST-WEST TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW PRODUCING SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. WIDELY SCATTTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. EXTENDED: THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS IS EXPECTED. PRELIM NUMBERS: TLH 089 073 091 074 7363 PFN 088 076 088 076 7363 DHN 089 073 091 073 6353 ABY 089 073 090 073 7363 VLD 089 072 091 073 7363 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. MME fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 415 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2002 THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN ADVERTISING ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS CWA. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AVN AND ETA IN NEXT 36 HOURS IS AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH RIDES OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY NEAR TERM CONCERN IS WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CWA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. ALSO WINDS CUTTING ACROSS STRONG 800-700 HPA THETA-E GRADIENT IN AREA WHERE WEAK RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED. THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...EXPECT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES TO A DEGREE ACROSS FAR WESTERN CWA. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IN 850-700 HPA LAYER MIGRATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z KABR SOUNDING STILL SHOWING LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND NOT EXPECTING THIS AREA OF -TSRA TO MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS KABR THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION ISOLATED MORNING -TSRA ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTING SEVERAL MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL US. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF CWA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ZONALLY ORIENTED 70 KNOT UPPER JET PASSING THROUGH BASE OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES CWA WHICH WILL PUT NORTHERN CWA IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENT REGION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. BEST 850-700 HPA WARM ADVECTION ALSO BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CWA. GIVEN THIS...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA AND SLIGHT MENTION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS WEST IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MORE CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AS 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN LOW AND MID LEVELS. NICE VEERING PROFILE IN LOW LEVELS TONIGHT BUT CONVECTION WILL ELEVATED WITH LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY. SOME SPEED SHEAR IN DEEPER LAYER FROM 3 TO 6 KM WHICH WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL CWA WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 ACROSS EASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF CWA. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED AS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH EVOLVES AND TIMING SHORT WAVES IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE TOUGH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS IT WILL BE TOUGH NOT TO BROAD BRUSH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME. .ABR...NONE. MARSILI sd EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 SFC-H70 BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS IS LYING OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA... POSITION IS VERY DISTINCT ON THE 12Z PENINSULA RAOBS. RUC40 ANALYSIS PLACES THE MEAN H85-H50 AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE S ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WCSB SHOULD MAKE GOOD INLAND PROGRESS THIS AFTN...AND STRONGER STEERING OVER THE NRN CWA WILL FAVOR THAT AREA FOR DIURNAL PRECIP. LOWER COVERAGE TO THE S DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW...BUT DRY POCKET IN THE H70-H40 OFF THE KMFL SOUNDING DOES SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS. LYR DOES MORNING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING... OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MARINE...SFC/LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS PLACING THE NRN WATERS IN A S/SW SFC FLOW. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1110 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN KY REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE LIKE YESTERDAY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS A LITTLE HIGHER...IN THE 1.7 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT A VORT MAX...SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY NOW...MOVES OVER NORTHEAST KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION TO SOME EXTENT...BUT WE HESITATE TO LOWER THE 60 POP WE HAVE GOING. THE REMARK ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUNED DOWN A BIT TO SHOW ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BASICALLY SUPPORT SLOW MOVING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP A MID-LEVEL ROTATION COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMGING WINDS. SCHAUB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: --------------------------------------------------------------------- 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER... AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE FRONT ARE WEAKENING AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS FROM THE EVENING CONVECTION OVER EAST KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...LOCALLY IT IS NOW QUIET BUT FURTHER WEST A COUPLE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE WESTERLIES TODAY LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE AVN FEATURES A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION 48 HOURS AGO FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK. THIS TOO LIFTS OUT DURING THE WEEKEND RETURNING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWS APPROACH 2 INCHES. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FROM ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OR COMPLEX OF SUCH. THOUGH...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. IN THIS AIRMASS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR SOAKING RAINS. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT NEVER FULLY CLEARS THE AREA...JUST WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE THE SFC PATTERN AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOK THURSDAY MAKING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH ...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. QUIETER WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO FOLLOW...BUT AN IMPULSE IN THE NOW ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. MANY DIFFERENCES IN MOS TEMPS AND POPS BETWEEN THE AVN AND NGM. PICKED AND CHOSE ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE SCENARIO. PREFER WARMER NGM TEMPS WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHER MAV POPS. AS FOR GFE/IFPS...LOADED AND TWEAKED THE MESOETA/S WINDS AND TEMPS THROUGH 60 HOURS...HAD TO ADJUST SOME AREAS OF MODELED RAIN COOLED MAXES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. REST OF GRIDS INHERITED WERE HIGH QUALITY ...JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO NEW MODELS AND NDFD BLEND. WORK ZONES AVAILABLE UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL BEFORE TOO LONG. PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS: LOZ TE 088/068 083/065 084 65423 JKL TB 086/066 085/066 083 64312 .JKL...NONE GREIF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 SCT SHWRS OVR AREA THIS AM. HV RCVD CPL RPRTS OF WTRSPTS OFF CRYSTAL CST. LTST LCL SNDG SHWG WET ALL THE WAY UP WITH PW AT 2.16 AND UNMODIFIED CAPE 2470. HVY DWNPOURS WL CONT AS IMPULSES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO OVR THE SE. LTST RUC SHOWG 00Z ETA VERIFIED WELL WI POSN OF SFC FNT...WHICH WL RMN TO OUR W THRU THE FP. RUC ALSO SHWG BEST CONCENTRATE OF PCPN WL BE ALNG THE CST...SHIFTING TO INLAND BY LT AFTN. XPCT TEMPS NR 80 ALNG THE CST TO MID 80S INLAND. SUM BRKS IN THE CLDS ATTM. HWVR CLD CVR SHUD FILL IN SHORTLY HELPING TO KP TEMPS DWN AND THREAT OF TSTMS AT A MIN. WL PIDDLE WI TEMPS IF NECESSARY AND PSBLY POPS. BUT NO MJR CHGS PLANND. MARINE: HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING LOOSE FROM 25KFT TOP CELLS IS REDUCING VSBY IN THE WATERS TODAY. APPEARS ECHO TREND IS SHIFTING HEAVIER RAINS INLAND WHILE OFFSHORE RAIN ARE EASING UP A BIT. SWIRL NOTED IN VSBL OVR CNTRL NC SEEMS TO ASSISTING ENHANCEMENT OF INLAND RAINS AS IT MOVES NE TWD THE VA BRDR. WILL MAINTAIN SW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEA THIS UPDATE. MONITOR MARINE SANCTUARY CREWS REPORT SW 18 KT SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET SW OF DSLN7. LOOKS LIKE SW FLOW WILL HANG ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONT STAY AND W OF THE COAST. .MHX... CGG-G/COLBY nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 940 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 WARM...VERY MOIST...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. PER MORNING RAOBS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS GENERALLY FROM 1.75 TO OVER 2 INCHES...LI'S -2 TO -4. CURRENTLY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NCAROLINA GENERATING SCATTERED...MAINLY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. LATEST RUC SHOW THIS MOVING OFF TO NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...06Z M-ETA SLOWER--OVER AREA BETTER PART OF THE DAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER..BUT SEEING SOME BREAKS. MAKES AFTERNOON MAXES A BIT TRICKY. MAY NEED TO TWEAK A BIT. MORNING THICKNESS INDICATE UPPER 80S. SO LATE MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST MAX TEMPERATURES. .RAH...NONE. RA nc UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 950 AM MDT TUE JUL 23 2002 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. .DISCUSSION...MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH. SOME HEALTHY AREAS OF CONVECTION SOME SPOTS. LATEST AVN SHOWS A WEAK VORT LOBE CLIPPING THE EXTREME NORTH THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH WE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT LEAVE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO HELP GET CONVECTION GOING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SO LONG AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MORNING SHORT WAVE DOESN'T CAP IT. 12Z RUC FORECASTS QUITE LOW LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z...AS LOW AS -6 OVER UINTAS. EARLIER MESOETA DIDN'T HANDLE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL...KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FINALLY PICKED UP ON THEM. BELIEVE EVEN 12Z RUN IS UNDERDONE ON AFTERNOON PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUS ADDED POPS IN APPROPRIATE PLACES WHERE THERE WERE NO POPS...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT IN PLACES. WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH DRYING SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND PULLS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WV LOOP SHOWS THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA. THE 06Z AVN WAS FAIRLY STRONG WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...MOVING IT ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TIMING THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON 12Z ETA. SLC 322 CDC 212 JACKSON .SLC...NONE. ut SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 201 PM MDT TUE JUL 23 2002 LATEST WV PICS SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST US. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN WY/NW CO...WITH ANOTHER VORT SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SW AZ. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING WEAK PV LOBE MOVING THROUGH NRN CO...AND CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FIRING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. ACROSS THE PLAINS...DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE SFC HEATING IS SUFFICIENT TO REALIZED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE). ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS...POPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAP AROUND 675 MB...WITH ANOTHER AROUND 500 MB. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COULD BREAK THE CAP... BUT STILL NOT MUCH CAPE TO REALIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. WITH WEAK PV LOBE MOVING THROUGH...WILL OPT TO KEEP 20 POPS IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR THE EVENING. LATEST VIS SAT SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY... WHICH MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... WITH PRECIP H20 THE HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. FIRE AREAS AND THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ROCK/MUD SLIDES COULD BE PRONE TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WED...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS UPPER TROUGH ENTERS NW COAST. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS ALLOWS LEE TROUGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHICH PUSHES THE DRY LINE INTO WRN KS BY AFTERNOON. 700 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN +15 AND +18C SO 90S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 100S ACROSS THE SE PLAINS SEEM REASONABLE. WILL BUMP UP TEMPS SOME OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOME. MOISTURE UNDER SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW AS HIGH PUSHES WESTWARD...SO MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. WITH NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING OFF THE MTNS...SO WILL KEEP THE SE PLAINS DRY. PRECIP H20S DROP AROUND .50 OR LESS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ON THURSDAY...BOTH ETA/AVN BRING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SE AZ AROUND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NRN CO/SRN WY IN THE AFTERNOON. AVN OBVIOUSLY HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE... WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE CONTAMINATED DEW POINT GRIDS ETC FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO ETA SOLUTION AND HAVE FUDGED MOISTURE GRIDS DOWN SOME. 700 TEMPS WARM BACK UP TO +18 TO +20C... WHICH WOULD YIELD LOWER 100S ACROSS SE CO...WHICH ETA GUIDANCE IS GIVING. IN FACT...GRIDS FROM MESO-ETA SHOWING 106 AT LAA! (PROBABLY NOT ALL THAT IMPOSSIBLE, BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HOT JUST YET.) AT ANY RATE...HOT TEMPS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL BUMP UP TEMPS IN GRIDS. ONLY HIGH BASED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...ITS HARD TO REMOVE ALL POPS. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS CONFINED TO THE MTN AREAS. FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY. A BIT OF CHALLENGE THIS DAY AS WELL...AS ETAX KEEPS RIDGE OVER CO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH LOWER TROP FLOW WESTERLY INTO LEE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. AVN IN CONTRAST DEVELOPS SFC LOW OVER SW KS WHICH PULLS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO FOR THE AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY AVN IS HAVING SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE FEED BACK PROBLEMS WITH SHORTWAVE FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE...AND ITS HARD TO KNOW HOW MUCH THIS HAS INFLUENCED SFC FIELDS. THE BOTTOM LINE...ETA WOULD ARGUE FOR ANOTHER HOT DRY DAY (700 TEMPS +19 TO +20C) WITH LOWER 100S ACROSS SE PLAINS. WHILE AVN WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL COMPROMISE ON THE TEMPS A BIT...AND WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED POPS FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE POPS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS IF ETAX SOLUTION PANS OUT. IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN US ROCKIES. WEAK VORTS MOVE ACROSS AREA WITH TIMING DIFFICULT...BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH MOISTURE AT LEAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS EACH DAY. SOUTHEAST PLAINS STILL A TOUGH CALL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TENDS TO PUSH THE DRY LINE OUT TOWARDS KS. BUT STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS TO MOVE OFF INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE POSITION OF THE DRY LINE AS WELL...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED FOR MOST AREAS. GFS BRINGS WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE CO ON SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER KS/NE ON SUN NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD WRLY FLOW SETS UP WITH PROBABLY SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN FLOW. WILL KEEP CLIMATOLOGICAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS EITHER WITH CLIMATOLOGY THE WAY TO GO. KT .PUB...NONE. co EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 CURRENT WX... LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS FROM RUC40 PLACES THE MEAN H100-H50 BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE SRN CWA...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM KSUA TO KFMY. AXIS IS ALSO CLEARLY DEPICTED IN CURRENT STORM MOTION... RW/TRW OVER THE NRN CWA IS DRIFTING NE...WHILE RW/TRW OVER THE SRN CWA IS DRIFTING N. ECSB SHOWING UP ON VIS SAT IMAGERY S OF THE CAPE...WHILE CONVECTION AND CI DEBRIS N OF THE CAPE IS HAMPERING ITS DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER THE E/WCSB ARE MAKING RAPID PROGRESS INLAND. FURTHER N...SFC-H50 S/WV EXTENDS FROM THE NE U.S. TO THE MS VALLEY. A STRONG CONTINENTAL HI OVER THE NRN PLAINS TRAILS THE S/WV...WITH A +100KT H25 JET MAX IS RIDING IN TANDEM. FCST DISC... RW/TRW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION. DENSE CI/CS DEBRIS OVER THE NRN AND SRN CWA FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL SUPRESS EVENING PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS. DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE RW/TRW COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ALSO POSSIBLE IS THAT THE CWA IS ALSO IN THE WRN FLANK OF A TUTT TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHERE UPR LVL SUPRESSION TENDS TO PREVAIL. MAY ONLY NEED 20 POPS THIS EVENING...PROBABLY NO HIGHER THAN 30. ON WED...THE CONTINENTAL HI OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AIDED BY THE STRONG NRN JET...WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND/SRN CANADA BY DAYBREAK. THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH THE S/WV TROF AXIS OVER THE NE U.S. INTO THE MID ATLC/LWR MS VALLEY. NEITHER AVN OR ETA INDICATES THE TROF WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT IT WILL BE EXTENSIVE...COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SE U.S. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING ANY FARTHER N FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. WHILE THE MID ATLC TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...A ZONAL H25-H20 JET WILL MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF S/WV TROFS ACROSS THE U.S...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE MID ATLC TROF. AS A RESULT...THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DRIFT ANY FARTHER N THAN KTPA/KXMR. THIS POSITION TENDS TO FAVOR THE NRN CWA FOR DIURNAL POPS...WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THAT AREA. MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FCST. SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 10-15KT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS THE DURATION OF THE SRLY WINDS INCREASES...SEAS WILL REACH A FULLY DEVELOPED 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE NRN WATERS BY 12Z THU. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOWER OVER THE SRN WATERS DUE TO THE SHADOW EFFECT OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT EVENTUALLY WILL REACH 4FT AS WELL. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... DAB TT 074/090 075/090 074 363 MCO TT 074/092 073/092 074 263 MLB TT 075/090 076/090 076 252 81 .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 237 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 ...FORECAST ISSUES... FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH HI TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED ARE A LITTLE CHALLENGING AS WELL. ...MODELS/ZFP... H5 SYNOPTIC CHART THIS MORNING SHOW A LARGE TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WAS SEEN AS WELL. FORECAST MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT PUSHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION OR JUST PLAIN OUT DISSOLVING IT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT RADAR PICS SHOWING AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER IN THE SDF-FFT-LEX AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP WITH THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FWC/MAV/MET NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT NEAR 70 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN ENDING PRECIP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS OF 83 TO 88 ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON MENTIONING SOME FOG FOR WED NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR A LITTLE MORE BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF H5 WAVES ARE FORECAST TO SCOOT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...PLAN ON KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU/FRI...MAINLY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY. FWC/MAV/MET NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND PLAN ON USING A BLEND. ...EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL H5 WAVE ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES PASSES THROUGH LATE FRI AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE SECOND ONE PASSING BY SAT NITE AND THEN THE FINAL ONE PASSING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WAVES PASSING BY AND GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE EXPECT CONVECTION TO POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOONS...MAINLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE HELD TO A MINIMUM. THUS...PLAN ON KEEPING TUESDAY DRY AT THIS POINT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PACKAGE. LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ...GRIDS... FORECAST DATABASE IS GOOD SHAPE. DID THE USUAL RE-LOAD OF 1HR T/TD AND WINDS FROM THE MESO ETA FOR THE 1ST 48 HOURS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE ELEMENTS WERE DONE. ...PRELIM NUMBERS... LOZ 69/84 66/85 5423 JKL 67/83 66/85 5423 .JKL...NONE JARVIS ===================================================================== 1110 AM MORNING DISCUSSION... THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN KY REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE LIKE YESTERDAY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS A LITTLE HIGHER...IN THE 1.7 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT A VORT MAX...SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY NOW...MOVES OVER NORTHEAST KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION TO SOME EXTENT...BUT WE HESITATE TO LOWER THE 60 POP WE HAVE GOING. THE REMARK ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUNED DOWN A BIT TO SHOW ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BASICALLY SUPPORT SLOW MOVING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP A MID-LEVEL ROTATION COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. SCHAUB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: --------------------------------------------------------------------- 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER... AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. ON SATELLITE...THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE FRONT ARE WEAKENING AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS FROM THE EVENING CONVECTION OVER EAST KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...LOCALLY IT IS NOW QUIET BUT FURTHER WEST A COUPLE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE WESTERLIES TODAY LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE AVN FEATURES A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION 48 HOURS AGO FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK. THIS TOO LIFTS OUT DURING THE WEEKEND RETURNING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWS APPROACH 2 INCHES. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FROM ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OR COMPLEX OF SUCH. THOUGH...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. IN THIS AIRMASS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR SOAKING RAINS. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT NEVER FULLY CLEARS THE AREA...JUST WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE THE SFC PATTERN AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOK THURSDAY MAKING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH ...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. QUIETER WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO FOLLOW...BUT AN IMPULSE IN THE NOW ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. MANY DIFFERENCES IN MOS TEMPS AND POPS BETWEEN THE AVN AND NGM. PICKED AND CHOSE ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE SCENARIO. PREFER WARMER NGM TEMPS WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHER MAV POPS. AS FOR GFE/IFPS...LOADED AND TWEAKED THE MESOETA/S WINDS AND TEMPS THROUGH 60 HOURS...HAD TO ADJUST SOME AREAS OF MODELED RAIN COOLED MAXES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. REST OF GRIDS INHERITED WERE HIGH QUALITY ...JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO NEW MODELS AND NDFD BLEND. WORK ZONES AVAILABLE UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL BEFORE TOO LONG. PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS: LOZ TE 088/068 083/065 084 65423 JKL TB 086/066 085/066 083 64312 .JKL...NONE GREIF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... CORRECTED FOR SEVERAL TYPOS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 340 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2002 LIGHT AND ERRATIC WINDS HAVE MADE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BEST LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST RUC SHOWS THIS TO BE FAVORED AREA. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT SE 1/3 AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL SECTIONS. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THIS EVENING MAY HELP FOCUS MORE CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH. WILL GO SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS FA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO RIDE OVER TOP OF CENTRAL ROCKIES RIDGE. FIRST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF AREA. SECOND IS FORECAST BY AVN TO MOVE EAST OUT OF CO AND WY AND WILL HAVE STRONG ENOUGH FLOW THAT STORMS AND CLOUDS MAY AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXTENDED FORECAST...FRI-TUES...MRF LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. OVERALL...GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...MRF DOES NOT BUILD WESTERN RIDGE BUT NOW PREDICTS BY MON/TUES A WEAKNESS IN 5H RIDGE OR TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS. WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVER WEEKEND AND GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST FOR MONDAY AND ALL AREAS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. FCSTID = 6 OKC 71 92 71 95 / 20 10 10 00 HBR 71 96 71 97 / 20 10 10 00 SPS 73 97 73 100 / 30 20 20 00 GAG 67 93 67 97 / 10 10 10 00 PNC 69 90 71 95 / 10 10 10 20 DUA 72 94 72 96 / 40 20 20 00 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok