ZZZ000-171413-
FNUS55 KGJT 161347
FWFGJT

FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
745 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

LARGE SCALE DISCUSSION: A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES. EXCELLENT MIXING 
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
ZONES WILL DECREASE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

*** THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ***
*** ALL SURFACE WINDS ARE 20-FOOT, 10 MINUTE AVERAGED WINDS ***

$$

*** ZONE 201 ***
CRAIG FORECAST AREA-
INCLUDING LOWER/CENTRAL/UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN...NORTHERN ROAN AND
EAST TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS...WEST SLOPES PARK AND NORTHERN GORE RANGES
...NORTHERN FLAT TOPS
745 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

DISCUSSION...


.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-80%) WITH SCATTERED LIGHT MORNING RAIN.
         BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND       
         THUNDERSTORMS.

    LAL...3
    HAINES INDEX...3
    MAX TEMP...BELOW 7500 FT...62-72
               ABOVE 7500 FT...52-62
    MIN RH.....BELOW 7500 FT...20-30%
               ABOVE 7500 FT...30-40%
    TWENTY-FOOT WIND...DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3-8 MPH UNTIL
        1030...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
        NEAR STORMS.
    TEN THOUSAND FOOT FREE AIR WIND...SOUTHWEST AT 20-25 MPH.

$$

*** ZONE 203 ***
GRAND JUNCTION FORECAST AREA-
INCLUDING SOUTHERN ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS...GRAND VALLEY...
DEBEQUE/RIFLE/GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND VICINITY...CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...BATTLEMENT MESA AND NORTHERN GRAND MESA...NORTHERN ELK
MOUNTAINS...WEST SLOPES SOUTHERN GORE RANGE...SOUTHERN FLAT TOPS AND
WHITE RIVER PLATEAU...NORTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU
745 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

DISCUSSION...


.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
            (60% CUMULUS AND MID CLOUD) AND BREEZY BY AFTERNOON
            WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

    LAL...3
    HAINES INDEX...5
    MAX TEMP...BELOW 7500 FT...70-80
               ABOVE 7500 FT...58-70
    MIN RH.....BELOW 7500 FT...13-20%
               ABOVE 7500 FT...20-30%
    TWENTY-FOOT WIND...DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH UNTIL 1030...
         THEN WEST 10-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS.
    TEN THOUSAND FOOT FREE AIR WIND...SOUTHWEST 15-20.

$$

*** ZONE 205 ***
MONTROSE FORECAST AREA-
INCLUDING SOUTHERN GRAND MESA...CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE
RIVER BASINS...WEST SLOPES SAWATCH RANGE...SOUTHERN ELK AND WEST ELK
MOUNTAINS...UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE 
PLATEAU...NORTHWESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PARADOX VALLEY        
745 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

DISCUSSION...


.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
            (30%-50% CUMULUS) AND BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH
            ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

    LAL...2
    HAINES INDEX...5
    MAX TEMP...BELOW 7500 FT...70-80
               ABOVE 7500 FT...60-70
    MIN RH.....BELOW 7500 FT...15-20%
               ABOVE 7500 FT...20-28%
    TWENTY-FOOT WIND...DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1030
        ...THEN WEST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
    TEN THOUSAND FOOT FREE AIR WIND...SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 MPH IN THE
        MORNING...INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH.

$$

*** ZONE 207 ***
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...FOUR CORNERS...ANIMAS
RIVER BASIN...SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN
745 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

DISCUSSION...


.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
            (30%-50% CUMULUS) AND BREEZY BY AFTERNOON.

    LAL...1
    HAINES INDEX...5
    MAX TEMP...BELOW 7500 FT...75-80
               ABOVE 7500 FT...65-75
    MIN RH.....BELOW 7500 FT...10-15%
               ABOVE 7500 FT...15-20%
    TWENTY-FOOT WIND...DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1030
        ...THEN SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH.
    TEN THOUSAND FOOT FREE AIR WIND...WEST AT 20-25 MPH.

$$

*** ZONE 442 443 444 ***
VERNAL FORECAST AREA-
INCLUDING EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...EASTERN UINTA BASIN...NORTHERN
ROAN AND EAST TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS
745 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

DISCUSSION...


.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY (60%-80%) THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT   
           RAIN SHOWERS. BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
           SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

    LAL...3
    HAINES INDEX...3
    MAX TEMP...BELOW 7500 FT...62-72
               ABOVE 7500 FT...52-62
    MIN RH.....BELOW 7500 FT...20-30%
               ABOVE 7500 FT...30-40%
    TWENTY-FOOT WIND...DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-9 MPH UNTIL 1030...THEN
        WEST 15-20 MPH.
    TEN THOUSAND FOOT FREE AIR WIND...SOUTHWEST AT 20-25 MPH BECOMING
        WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$

*** ZONE 445 446 447 448 449 ***
MOAB FORECAST AREA-
INCLUDING SOUTHERN ROAN AND EAST TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS...GRAND FLAT...
ARCHES NATIONAL PARK AND VICINITY...LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...
EASTERN CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK...NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL
MONUMENT...SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN COUNTY
745 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

DISCUSSION...


.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY                
           CLOUDY (30% CUMULUS). BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. 

    LAL...1
    HAINES INDEX...5
    MAX TEMP...BELOW 7500 FT...75-85
               ABOVE 7500 FT...65-75
    MIN RH.....BELOW 7500 FT...8-14%
               ABOVE 7500 FT...12-20%
    TWENTY-FOOT WIND...DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-9 MPH UNTIL 1030...THEN
        SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH.
    TEN THOUSAND FOOT FREE AIR WIND...WEST AT 15-25 MPH IN THE
        MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$

.2 TO 5 DAY FORECAST...FRIDAY MAY 17 THROUGH MONDAY MAY 20:

DISCUSSION: A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY BUT SHIFT TO WEST
AND BECOME VERY LIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL MONDAY WHEN MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTH AND MOUNTAINS.

*** NO SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT WHERE
INDICATED AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ***

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND WARM.
MAX TEMPS...74-87 BELOW 7500 FEET...62-74 ABOVE 7500 FEET.
MIN TEMPS...38-52 BELOW 7500 FEET...28-38 ABOVE 7500 FEET.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
    AND MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS...72-84 BELOW 7500 FEET...60-72 ABOVE 7500 FEET.
MIN TEMPS...38-52 BELOW 7500 FEET...28-38 ABOVE 7500 FEET.


.6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY MAY 21 THROUGH SATURDAY MAY 25:

DISCUSSION...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON TUESDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LESS-WARM TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

$$

RAMEY