EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 955 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003 HEAVIEST CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...ONLY SMALL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE CWA. NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL...HOWEVER...AS THEY ARE ENTRAINED IN A VERY STRONG W/SW FLOW...SVR TSTORM EARLIER WAS CLOCKED AT 45 MPH. LATEST NCEP SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM DAYTONA TO FORT MYERS. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE M60S/L70S...BUT DROP INTO THE M/U40S OVER THE PANHANDLE. VERY TIGHT PGRAD IS PRODUCING A STRONG W/NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST SFC-H85 RUC80 ANALYSIS SHOWS A SWATH OF 20-30KT WINDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GOMEX. FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES STILL POSSIBLE FROM RESIDUAL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MEASUREABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. MARINE... SAINT AUGUSTINE C-MAN STATION MEASURING 15-18KT WINDS...WINDS/SEAS AT BUOY010 AOA SCA LVLS. SCA CURRENTLY IN PLACE...SHOULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED. .MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. ...RED FLAG WARNING ALL COUNTIES (HIGH DISPERSION INDICES) $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW AVIATION/FIRE...GLITTO fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 845 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003 CURRENTLY: PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING UP OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/ALABAMA AND KEEPING WINDS UP IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 8 FT. TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR AL ZONES, THE 50S FOR N FLA BIG BEND AND GA ZONES, AND 60S SOUTH BIG BEND. LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BIG BEND AND COASTAL WATERS. AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MARINE FORECAST ALSO DOING WELL WITH 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY....ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR TONIGHT AS THERE ARE A FEW SMALL STRAY SHOWERS OFF OF CAPE SAN BLAS AND IN THE BAY. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. GFS STILL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTES...POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND RAIN...HIGHER POPS FOR NORTHERN ZONES, GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FA THROUGH TOMORROW AND CLEARING FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. $$ BOLINSKI PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.******************************************* CURRENTLY: SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE ONSET OF SCA CONDITIONS. MODELS/ZFP: VERY COMPLEX FCST IN STORE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER THE CWA...AS THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER E AR AND W MS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND DIVE SE TOWARDS THE REGION. AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE STRONG SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE REACHES THE GULF STREAM...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING FAIRLY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE GA COAST. AS THIS DEVELOPING SFC LOW IS INITIALLY PULLED IN WESTWARD BY THE UPPER LOW...THE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA WILL BE HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKES IT BACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR AREA. STILL AWAITING THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS...BUT AM CONCERNED OVER THE HIGH POPS FOR TOMORROW COMING IN FROM THE ETA AND NGM OVER OUR GA ZONES...AND IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...EXPECT THE 12 UTC MAV NUMBERS TO INCREASE AS WELL. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL POPS...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE. IN ANY EVENT...WILL DEFINITELY SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY. MARINE: WITH THE DEEPENING AND SLOW MOVING SFC LOW EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS RETURNING ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED: ONCE THIS UPPER LOW VACATES THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...EXPECT A PROLONGED STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE ON THE LATEST GFS RUN THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...WITH A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SE. TLH 045/058 042/071 43 1310 PFN 047/060 046/070 49 12-0 DHN 043/054 044/068 48 1300 ABY 047/056 043/070 46 2520 VLD 048/058 045/070 47 3420 CTY 051/060 046/068 45 3210 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. $$ GOULD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************************* AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGES SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED E OF THE CWFA. VISIBLE SATELLITE NICELY DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 1145Z EXTENDED THROUGH A JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY LINE INTO THE GULF. POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS IS EXTENSIVE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DECLINE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH TLH DOWN TO 1.10". 12Z RAOBS SHOWING STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COOL/DRY ADVECTION INTO CWFA. SURFACE DATA SHOW AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN GA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOL WEDGE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS NOTED BY SPC...THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. LAPSE RATES SHOULD INCREASE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAD H5 TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -28C OVER LITTLE ROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG COLD POOL TO REMAIN W OF THE CWFA INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LAGGING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL LOWER POPS AREAWIDE AND DOWNPLAY TO SEVERE THREAT. MARINE: WINDS STARTING TO COME UP AT BUOY #42039...BUT SEAS ARE STILL LOW AT AROUND 2-3 FT. BUOY #42040 S OF MOB IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH 20+ KT WINDS AND 7 FT SEAS. 11Z RUC ANTICIPATES THIS WIND DIFFERENCE WELL...AND KEEPS WINDS IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OUR WATERS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL...SO FEW CHANGES ARE PLANNED. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ************************************************************* 315 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 AREA RADARS SHOW LITTLE OR NO REMAINING PRECIPITATION FROM THE DAYS ACTIVITY. OF COURSE...RESIDUAL CLOUDY SKIES ARE HOLDING THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH NW WINDS UNDER 10. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SW INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEDGE PERSISTS OVER SC AND N GA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF. SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT UPPER LEVELS... DIGGING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN LIFTING IT NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOUR PERIOD. THIS MEANS THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE AS WELL...PULLING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...500 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25 WILL TRANSLATE DOWNWARD TO MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 THU MORNING. WE WILL HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE BUT LIMITED THERMAL INPUT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYER PW DECREASING BY HALF OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STILL...SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF MY CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THU MORNING...AND IF ACTIVITY IS GENERATED OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM HAIL. HAVE USED ENSEMBLE TEMPS... LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE TODAY...GOOD CHANCE SE...AND MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MARINE: WILL OPEN WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR 15-20 KT WINDS TODAY...THEN ESCALATE TO SCA TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CONDITIONS INTO THU...SETTLE BACK INTO SCEC RANGE THU NIGHT AND DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY FRI AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED IN THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN PERIOD. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH THU. EXTENDED: UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FLATTENING A BIT BEFORE RE-AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS AND DIGGING TROF FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER MS VLY LATE TUE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH TUE EVEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ALLOWING FAIR WX SAT THROUGH TUE...WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 70 44 63 41 3222 PFN 65 47 63 47 3321 DHN 63 43 57 43 3232 ABY 65 45 57 41 4332 VLD 70 48 61 41 4332 CTY 72 48 64 44 5221 $$ AFD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 100 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003 CORRECTED TO ADD SCA TO WWA SECTION. CURRENTLY: SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE ONSET OF SCA CONDITIONS. MODELS/ZFP: VERY COMPLEX FCST IN STORE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER THE CWA...AS THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER E AR AND W MS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND DIVE SE TOWARDS THE REGION. AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE STRONG SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE REACHES THE GULF STREAM...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING FAIRLY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE GA COAST. AS THIS DEVELOPING SFC LOW IS INITIALLY PULLED IN WESTWARD BY THE UPPER LOW...THE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA WILL BE HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKES IT BACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR AREA. STILL AWAITING THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS...BUT AM CONCERNED OVER THE HIGH POPS FOR TOMORROW COMING IN FROM THE ETA AND NGM OVER OUR GA ZONES...AND IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...EXPECT THE 12 UTC MAV NUMBERS TO INCREASE AS WELL. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL POPS...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE. IN ANY EVENT...WILL DEFINITELY SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY. MARINE: WITH THE DEEPENING AND SLOW MOVING SFC LOW EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS RETURNING ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED: ONCE THIS UPPER LOW VACATES THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...EXPECT A PROLONGED STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE ON THE LATEST GFS RUN THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...WITH A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SE. TLH 045/058 042/071 43 1310 PFN 047/060 046/070 49 12-0 DHN 043/054 044/068 48 1300 ABY 047/056 043/070 46 2520 VLD 048/058 045/070 47 3420 CTY 051/060 046/068 45 3210 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. $$ GOULD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************************* AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGES SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED E OF THE CWFA. VISIBLE SATELLITE NICELY DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 1145Z EXTENDED THROUGH A JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY LINE INTO THE GULF. POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS IS EXTENSIVE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DECLINE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH TLH DOWN TO 1.10". 12Z RAOBS SHOWING STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COOL/DRY ADVECTION INTO CWFA. SURFACE DATA SHOW AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN GA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOL WEDGE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS NOTED BY SPC...THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. LAPSE RATES SHOULD INCREASE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAD H5 TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -28C OVER LITTLE ROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG COLD POOL TO REMAIN W OF THE CWFA INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LAGGING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL LOWER POPS AREAWIDE AND DOWNPLAY TO SEVERE THREAT. MARINE: WINDS STARTING TO COME UP AT BUOY #42039...BUT SEAS ARE STILL LOW AT AROUND 2-3 FT. BUOY #42040 S OF MOB IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH 20+ KT WINDS AND 7 FT SEAS. 11Z RUC ANTICIPATES THIS WIND DIFFERENCE WELL...AND KEEPS WINDS IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OUR WATERS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL...SO FEW CHANGES ARE PLANNED. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ************************************************************* 315 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 AREA RADARS SHOW LITTLE OR NO REMAINING PRECIPITATION FROM THE DAYS ACTIVITY. OF COURSE...RESIDUAL CLOUDY SKIES ARE HOLDING THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH NW WINDS UNDER 10. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SW INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEDGE PERSISTS OVER SC AND N GA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF. SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT UPPER LEVELS... DIGGING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN LIFTING IT NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOUR PERIOD. THIS MEANS THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE AS WELL...PULLING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...500 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25 WILL TRANSLATE DOWNWARD TO MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 THU MORNING. WE WILL HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE BUT LIMITED THERMAL INPUT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYER PW DECREASING BY HALF OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STILL...SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF MY CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THU MORNING...AND IF ACTIVITY IS GENERATED OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM HAIL. HAVE USED ENSEMBLE TEMPS... LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE TODAY...GOOD CHANCE SE...AND MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MARINE: WILL OPEN WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR 15-20 KT WINDS TODAY...THEN ESCALATE TO SCA TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CONDITIONS INTO THU...SETTLE BACK INTO SCEC RANGE THU NIGHT AND DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY FRI AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED IN THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN PERIOD. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH THU. EXTENDED: UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FLATTENING A BIT BEFORE RE-AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS AND DIGGING TROF FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER MS VLY LATE TUE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH TUE EVEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ALLOWING FAIR WX SAT THROUGH TUE...WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 70 44 63 41 3222 PFN 65 47 63 47 3321 DHN 63 43 57 43 3232 ABY 65 45 57 41 4332 VLD 70 48 61 41 4332 CTY 72 48 64 44 5221 $$ AFD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 100 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003 CURRENTLY: SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE ONSET OF SCA CONDITIONS. MODELS/ZFP: VERY COMPLEX FCST IN STORE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER THE CWA...AS THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER E AR AND W MS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND DIVE SE TOWARDS THE REGION. AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE STRONG SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE REACHES THE GULF STREAM...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING FAIRLY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE GA COAST. AS THIS DEVELOPING SFC LOW IS INITIALLY PULLED IN WESTWARD BY THE UPPER LOW...THE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA WILL BE HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKES IT BACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR AREA. STILL AWAITING THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS...BUT AM CONCERNED OVER THE HIGH POPS FOR TOMORROW COMING IN FROM THE ETA AND NGM OVER OUR GA ZONES...AND IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...EXPECT THE 12 UTC MAV NUMBERS TO INCREASE AS WELL. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL POPS...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE. IN ANY EVENT...WILL DEFINITELY SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY. MARINE: WITH THE DEEPENING AND SLOW MOVING SFC LOW EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS RETURNING ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED: ONCE THIS UPPER LOW VACATES THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...EXPECT A PROLONGED STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE ON THE LATEST GFS RUN THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...WITH A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SE. TLH 045/058 042/071 43 1310 PFN 047/060 046/070 49 12-0 DHN 043/054 044/068 48 1300 ABY 047/056 043/070 46 2520 VLD 048/058 045/070 47 3420 CTY 051/060 046/068 45 3210 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ GOULD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************************* AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGES SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED E OF THE CWFA. VISIBLE SATELLITE NICELY DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 1145Z EXTENDED THROUGH A JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY LINE INTO THE GULF. POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS IS EXTENSIVE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DECLINE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH TLH DOWN TO 1.10". 12Z RAOBS SHOWING STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COOL/DRY ADVECTION INTO CWFA. SURFACE DATA SHOW AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN GA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOL WEDGE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS NOTED BY SPC...THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. LAPSE RATES SHOULD INCREASE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAD H5 TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -28C OVER LITTLE ROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG COLD POOL TO REMAIN W OF THE CWFA INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LAGGING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL LOWER POPS AREAWIDE AND DOWNPLAY TO SEVERE THREAT. MARINE: WINDS STARTING TO COME UP AT BUOY #42039...BUT SEAS ARE STILL LOW AT AROUND 2-3 FT. BUOY #42040 S OF MOB IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH 20+ KT WINDS AND 7 FT SEAS. 11Z RUC ANTICIPATES THIS WIND DIFFERENCE WELL...AND KEEPS WINDS IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OUR WATERS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL...SO FEW CHANGES ARE PLANNED. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ************************************************************* 315 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 AREA RADARS SHOW LITTLE OR NO REMAINING PRECIPITATION FROM THE DAYS ACTIVITY. OF COURSE...RESIDUAL CLOUDY SKIES ARE HOLDING THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH NW WINDS UNDER 10. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SW INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEDGE PERSISTS OVER SC AND N GA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF. SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT UPPER LEVELS... DIGGING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN LIFTING IT NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOUR PERIOD. THIS MEANS THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE AS WELL...PULLING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...500 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25 WILL TRANSLATE DOWNWARD TO MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 THU MORNING. WE WILL HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE BUT LIMITED THERMAL INPUT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYER PW DECREASING BY HALF OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STILL...SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF MY CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THU MORNING...AND IF ACTIVITY IS GENERATED OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM HAIL. HAVE USED ENSEMBLE TEMPS... LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE TODAY...GOOD CHANCE SE...AND MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MARINE: WILL OPEN WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR 15-20 KT WINDS TODAY...THEN ESCALATE TO SCA TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CONDITIONS INTO THU...SETTLE BACK INTO SCEC RANGE THU NIGHT AND DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY FRI AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED IN THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN PERIOD. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH THU. EXTENDED: UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FLATTENING A BIT BEFORE RE-AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS AND DIGGING TROF FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER MS VLY LATE TUE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH TUE EVEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ALLOWING FAIR WX SAT THROUGH TUE...WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 70 44 63 41 3222 PFN 65 47 63 47 3321 DHN 63 43 57 43 3232 ABY 65 45 57 41 4332 VLD 70 48 61 41 4332 CTY 72 48 64 44 5221 $$ AFD fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1005 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 CURRENT...ALTHOUGH KMLB 88D DATA SHOWS LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MASS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS NOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA. MULTIPLE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH (EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW) CENTERED OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL AND ROTATING SE. LARGE SWATH OF H25 JET DIVG EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR AND RUC H25 ANLYS. EXTENSIVE CLDS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. SFC OBS PUT FL/GA IN A RATHER AMORPHOUS/BAGGY PRES PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. TROUGH XTDS FROM OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS TO 1009MB LOW PRES WAVE NEAR CLKN7...TO A 1011MB WAVE OFFSHORE KJAX...WITH THE COLD FRONT XTDNG FROM NEAR KJAX TO CDRF1-42033 AND WELL SW INTO THE GOMEX. MORNING RAOBS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED >1.25" ACROSS THE STATE AND >1.50" OVER THE CTRL PENIN. LAPSE RATES NOT ALL TOO STEEP WITH H5 TEMPS -8C (KMFL) TO -11/-12C (KJAX). KXMR APPEARS CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED WITH BAD WIND DATA THROUGH THE COLUMN. FCST...WX SCENARIO APPEARS POISED TO EVOLVE AS SET FORTH IN THE MID SHIFT WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT/INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE HEALTHY COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS FOR TODAY. FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AND BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL BY LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SPIN UP/CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SUCH THAT WE SHOULDN'T HAVE MUCH TROUBLE REACHING FCST MAXES. ORIENTATION OF FRONT (MORE N-S) WILL KEEP WINDS FROM VEERING ALL TO QUICKLY...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD KEEP STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVG IN PLACE UNTIL FROPA. STILL SOME SEMBLANCE OF POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND IN AREA OF GREATER DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS. WILL ISSUE UPDATE FOR MINOR...MOSTLY COSMETIC TWEAKS TO SKY COVER/ WINDS, ETC. MARINE...MARINE AREA CLEARLY IN SCEC TO MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WERE THE SCA NOT ALREADY IN PLACE AND FCST TO RETURN TONIGHT THRU FRI...WOULD PARE BACK TO SCEC...BUT WILL HEADLINE "SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING TONIGHT" INSTEAD. .MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. ...FIRE WX WATCH THURSDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI AVIATION/FIRE...VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 915 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGES SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED E OF THE CWFA. VISIBLE SATELLITE NICELY DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 1145Z EXTENDED THROUGH A JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY LINE INTO THE GULF. POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS IS EXTENSIVE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DECLINE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH TLH DOWN TO 1.10". 12Z RAOBS SHOWING STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COOL/DRY ADVECTION INTO CWFA. SURFACE DATA SHOW AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN GA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOL WEDGE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS NOTED BY SPC...THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. LAPSE RATES SHOULD INCREASE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAD H5 TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -28C OVER LITTLE ROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS PROG COLD POOL TO REMAIN W OF THE CWFA INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LAGGING THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL LOWER POPS AREAWIDE AND DOWNPLAY TO SEVERE THREAT. MARINE: WINDS STARTING TO COME UP AT BUOY #42039...BUT SEAS ARE STILL LOW AT AROUND 2-3 FT. BUOY #42040 S OF MOB IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH 20+ KT WINDS AND 7 FT SEAS. 11Z RUC ANTICIPATES THIS WIND DIFFERENCE WELL...AND KEEPS WINDS IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OUR WATERS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL...SO FEW CHANGES ARE PLANNED. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ************************************************************* 315 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 AREA RADARS SHOW LITTLE OR NO REMAINING PRECIPITATION FROM THE DAYS ACTIVITY. OF COURSE...RESIDUAL CLOUDY SKIES ARE HOLDING THE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH NW WINDS UNDER 10. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SW INTO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEDGE PERSISTS OVER SC AND N GA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF. SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT UPPER LEVELS... DIGGING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN LIFTING IT NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOUR PERIOD. THIS MEANS THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE AS WELL...PULLING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...500 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25 WILL TRANSLATE DOWNWARD TO MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 THU MORNING. WE WILL HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE BUT LIMITED THERMAL INPUT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYER PW DECREASING BY HALF OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STILL...SPC HAS PUT MUCH OF MY CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THU MORNING...AND IF ACTIVITY IS GENERATED OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM HAIL. HAVE USED ENSEMBLE TEMPS... LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE TODAY...GOOD CHANCE SE...AND MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MARINE: WILL OPEN WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR 15-20 KT WINDS TODAY...THEN ESCALATE TO SCA TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CONDITIONS INTO THU...SETTLE BACK INTO SCEC RANGE THU NIGHT AND DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY FRI AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED IN THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN PERIOD. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH THU. EXTENDED: UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FLATTENING A BIT BEFORE RE-AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS AND DIGGING TROF FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER MS VLY LATE TUE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH TUE EVEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ALLOWING FAIR WX SAT THROUGH TUE...WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 70 44 63 41 3222 PFN 65 47 63 47 3321 DHN 63 43 57 43 3232 ABY 65 45 57 41 4332 VLD 70 48 61 41 4332 CTY 72 48 64 44 5221 $$ AFD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 144 PM CDT WED APR 9 2003 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WHEN PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LATEST RADAR SHOWS AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PAH FORECAST AREA MOVING SOUTHWEST. RECEIVED REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SNOW AND PRECIP MIXTURES AND EVEN SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. GOING PACKAGE HAS PRECIP FOCUSED OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA FOR TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. ETA AND AVN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP/CLOUDS EXITING THE AREA...WITH CLOUDS MOVING OUT SOUTHEASTERN MOST AREAS BY AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE INDICATING BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...THIS TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TIMING/WORDING CHANGES. FWC/MAV TEMPS TONIGHT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND MATCH UP WELL WITH GOING VALUES. NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF AREA WILL SKIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK...BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT WILL NOT SEE ANY FROST. FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER FWC NUMBERS FOR WESTERN AREAS THAT SHOULD RECEIVE SUN MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY...AND TOWARD COOLER MAV VALUES FOR EASTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING. FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH AND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WIND...WILL AVOID ANY FROST MENTION...BUT WILL ADVISE FOLLOWING SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. BY FRIDAY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AS A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. BACKED OFF TEMPS (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS)IN GOING PACKAGE ABOUT A CATEGORY...MORE IN LINE WITH MEX VALUES...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES. PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE PUSHED BACK...WITH MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN REALLY ON WEDNESDAY. PREFER MORE OF A "LATE TUESDAY" WORDING AND MAINLY JUST OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. .PAH...NONE. $$ RSU ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1031 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003 CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POSSIBILITY ALG LAKE MI COUNTIES AND TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. SATL LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPR RDG BLDG INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES/NRN PLAINS WITH SHRTWV MOVG UP BACKSIDE OF THIS RDG THRU SASK. WAA HIGH CLDS FM THIS SHRTWV RIDING OVR UPR RDG INTO ONTARIO BUT STAYING NORTH OF UPR MI AS CLR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS CWA. FAIRLY TIGHT SSW SFC GRAD REMAINS OVR CWA WITH LOW MOVG INTO MANITOBA AND SFC HIGH STATIONED OVR LWR MIDWEST/CNTRL GRT LAKES. WITH MODELS INDICATING BOUNDARY LYR WINDS OF 15-20 KTS AND DWPNTS UPSTREAM FROM LAKE MI IN THE LOW 20S...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG FORMATION ALG LAKE MI BDRG COUNTIES OVRNGT. ALSO UPSTREAM 00Z GRB SNDG IS PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR FOG FORMATION. THUS...WL UPDATE TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG FOR LAKE MI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S STILL LOOK GENLY ON TARGET AND THESE TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM MINS RECORDED LAST NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 945 AM EDT WED APR 9 2003 JUST A COSMETIC UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM DRIZZLE ON THE HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...PRECIP SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF FCST AREA PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC/ETA/AVN MODEL RUNS. 12Z TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF MAV MOS WITH HIGHS UPR 30S TO NR 40. BREWSTER ...EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION... BIG PICTURE...AMPLIFYING 500 MB RIDGE OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA WILL HELP ERN US TROUGH CLOSE OFF OVER SERN STATES. CUTOFF IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK NE BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP IN 500 MB FLOW AGAIN. AS A RESULT COLD AIR OVER ERN CANADA WILL RETREAT POLEWARD. TODAY...QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW FAR NORTH INTO NERN PA DOES THE PRECIP GET THIS MORNING...AND WHAT WILL BE THE STATE OF THE PRECIP. PRECIP TYPE FIRST...ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE FROZEN PRECIP AT KAVP...HOWEVER...TEMPS THERE ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES F ABOVE ETA FORECASTS...AND MAV KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. DEW POINTS ALSO ABOVE MODEL FORECAST VALUES AS WELL. SO...WILL GO WITH LIQUID PRECIP...EXCEPT FREEZING ON THE HILLS. ON TO QPF AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIP...NOT TOO MUCH IN THE ANY SORT OF FORCING...DYNAMIC OR THERMODYNAMIC...AND OMEGA FIELDS ARE WEAK. 500 MB DOES PASS TO THE SOUTH...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT EARLY...BUT FADES AFTER 09Z. LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HOWEVER...DO SHOW SOME PRECIP ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STILL...HARD TO FIND A REASON WHY ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP WOULD MAKE IT INTO THE CWA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDDAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME SN MIXING IN BEFORE IT ENDS...AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT ONCE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SINCE THE ADVISORY IS UP...WILL NOT DROP IT ATTM...BUT WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR REST OF CWA...WILL REMOVE PRECIP FROM ALL BUT SRN ZONES FOR TODAY...BUT AS ENE FLOW CONTINUES...WILL KEEP OVC. TONIGHT-THU...RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER REGION PUTTING AN END TO EASTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE MID LAYER FLOW MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CLEAR TONIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THU AS CWA WILL BENEFIT FROM BEING BENEATH LEFT ENTRY REGION OF JET...AND WE SHOULD SEE A M/SUNNY DAY AS THE ONLY CLOUDS MAY BE CIRRUS DERIVED FROM CLOSED LOW MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS INCREASE THU NIGHT AS SFC LOW APPROACHES. FRIDAY...COASTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH FILLING 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK NNE FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT. BOTH ETA/GFS SUGGEST DEFORMATION ZONES SET UP ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH RAIN STARTING EARLY. OREINTATION OF PRECIP BANDS DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT QPF NOT THAT FAR OFF. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...AS FILLING CLOSED SYSTEMS CAN PRODUCE SOME HEAVY PRECIP ON THEIR PERIPHERIES...HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH BY THIS TIME THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT LAST LONG. SFC LOW MOVES OUT FRI NIGHT...BUT 500 MB LOW WILL BE LINGERING INTO SAT...SO CHC POPS FOR SHRA WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. .BGM...NONE CEMPA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 931 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003 LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE GA/SC COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. AS THE LOW SPINS UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS SO FFA WILL BE CONTINUED. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO CLEAN UP PRECIP WORDING...GOING WITH POPS AROUND 80 PERCENT AND INDICATING OCCASIONAL RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF CURRENT VALUES. MARINE: NE WINDS 15-20 KT AT THE BEACHES AND 20-25 KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. FPSN7 SEAS ARE SPORADIC...BUT APPEAR TO BE 6-7 FT. THIS IS WELL CORRELATED WITH BUOYS 41004 AND 41025. RUC AND ETA BOTH SHOW A TREND TO REALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THE COLD WEDGE OF HIGH PRES GETS SQUEEZED INLAND WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURES OFFSHORE. WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN NE ALL NIGHT WITH THE COASTAL TROF REMAINING OUTSIDE OF 20 NM THRU AT LEAST DAYBREAK. WILL INDICATE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT TOWARD MORNING. .ILM... .NC...FLOOD WATCH PENDER-NEW HANOVER-BRUNSWICK-BLADEN-COLUMBUS- ROBESON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. .SC...FLOOD WATCH HORRY-GEORGETOWN-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-DILLON- FLORENCE-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER. PUBLIC: RAN MARINE: TRA ----------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 405 PM--------------------- WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF IT CROSSING CENTRAL GA. SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS PRECIPITATION WELL. WITH THE REGION UNDER THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE THETA-E RIDGE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL REISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENT IN TIMING...MODELS DO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND THU WITH AT LEAST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE WARM SECTOR. BIG BUST POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS THU WITH TRACK OF THIS LOW UNCERTAIN. WILL FORECAST HIGHS 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ALONG THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY HAIL...IN THE WARM SECTOR THU WITH H5 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE FRI. SOME DRIER AIR SPREADS IN LATE FRI AS WINDS SHIFT NW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST IS DRY BEYOND FRI. MARINE: LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DUMBBELL AROUND UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT AND PER GFS SOLUTION WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS MID SC COAST BEFORE BEING CAPTURED BY UPPER LOW. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL RESUME A SLOW NE TRACK THU NIGHT. EXPECTING LOW TO GET FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO ALLOW A SE TO S WIND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON THU. LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...NE OF ILM EARLY ON FRI. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY RELAXING OVERNIGHT. ON SAT...GFS INDICATING A COASTAL TROUGH ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE THAT BOUNDARY OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD STRONGLY ACROSS THE AREA SUN AND MON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA AS SEAS ARE ALREADY ABOVE THRESHOLD. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO ABOUT 10 FT LATER ON THU AND THU NGT BEFORE OFFSHORE WIND KICKS IN TOWARD FRI MORNING...KNOCKING SEAS BACK DOWN. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS BY FRI. NW WINDS OF 25 KT DURING FRI WILL FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRI NIGHT. FCSTID = 36 ILM 50 63 48 64 / 100 60 60 50 LBT 46 57 46 60 / 100 70 60 50 FLO 48 57 46 62 / 100 70 60 50 MYR 51 62 48 64 / 100 60 60 50 .ILM... .NC...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES TONIGHT. SCA AMZ250-252. .SC...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES TONIGHT. SCA AMZ254-256. PUBLIC: JAQ MARINE: DIGIORGI nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 945 AM EST WED APR 9 2003 ENERGY CONTS TO DIG THRU THE LWR MS VLY ON ITS WAY TO THE GULF COAST. INITIAL VORT MAX IS LIFTING OFF THE NE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH LARGE NVA PUSHING INTO SE GA. LOCAL AND RGNL RADAR LOOPS SHOW HEAVIEST RAIN IS MAKING QUICK PROGRESS NE AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH ONLY ISOLD ECHOES MOVING THRU CENTRAL AND SW GA ON LEADING EDGE OF NEXT VORT. WILL BE REMOVING THE FFA FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES ON THIS UPDATE. AFTN PKG MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS. SFC ANLYS INDICATES ELONGATED TROF/LOW ORIENTED JUST OFF THE COAST EXTENDING INTO SE GA/NE FL. RUC IS HANDLING THESE FTRES NICELY THIS MORNING...SHOWING WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THRU THE AFTN BUT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS S COUNTIES AS THE NEXT VORT SWINGS IN LATER AND CONVG REMAINS AT LLVLS. PLAN TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS DOWN IN TEMP...PROBABLY REMAINING IN THE 50S N AND MAYBE LOWER 60S S... DROP POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHC ESPLY N...AND ALSO ADJUST WINDS TO REMAIN MORE OUT OF THE N/NE FOR MOST GROUPINGS. NO CHGS BEYOND FIRST PD WITH CLOSED SYS KEEPING THE RGN VERY UNSETTLED TONIGHT AND THRU THU. MARINE...WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO NNW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 20 NM. EXPECT WINDS TO TIP TO NE OVER THE WATERS BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER. WILL INDICATE CHANGES TO WIND DIRECTION IN UPDATE. SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD COVER IT. TIP IN WIND DIRECTION MAY ALLOW SEAS TO PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTN BUT EXPECT SEAS WITHIN 20 NM TO REMAIN BELOW 6 FT THIS AFTN. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS 20 TO 60 NM BUT LOWER FLAGS ELSEWHERE. .CHS... GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374. SC...NONE. $$ MJR/SLF sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 820 PM MDT WED APR 9 2003 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TRUE COLD FRONT FROM KSDV TO KLVM...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT FROM KBIS TO KRIW. SYSTEM BEING DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BORDER. CONCERN TONIGHT IS WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS VERY DRY...SO CLOUDS WILL BE SPARSE OVERNIGHT. 00Z RUC SHOWED 25-35KT 850MB WINDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD TONIGHT. FEEL THIS WON/T REACH THE SURFACE GIVEN BEST PRESSURE RISES MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND EXPECTED INVERSION. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL TWEAK LOWS AHEAD OF FRONT UPWARD DUE TO TYPICAL MIXING AHEAD OF IT. .UNR...NONE $$ HELGESON sd SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 225 AM MST THU APR 10 2003 .SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER ONLY SLIGHTLY. A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND TURN EAST INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS STORM WILL BRING WIND...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. .DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODELS ALL SEEM TO INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND COMPLETELY EXITS THE REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A WEAK 'DIRTY' RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM LURKING OVER THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THIS FIRST WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO PULL INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ETA/NGM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WHILE THE AVN HAS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL TO THE SE OF THE STATE. I INHERITED ZONES/GRIDS WITH 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN MY EXTREME EASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP SO WILL NOT CHANGE. FOR THE MAJOR SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THE 00Z RUN OF GFS SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN ONCE AGAIN...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK EARLY MONDAY IN ORDER TO MESH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES A LITTLE BETTER. KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY TRIM POPS BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM KEEPS US ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IS QUESTIONABLE SINCE GFS INDICATES THE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL TO THE NORTH OF US THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE. MOLLERE .TWC...NONE. $$ az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 345 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003 VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO THINK ABOUT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM THE RUC SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM WESTERN ALASKA SOUTH TO NEAR 35N...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING EAST INTO MANITOBA WILL BE OUR ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...AND WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A WORRY SINCE ITS EFFECTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE 00Z ETA AND GFS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND MASS FIELDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEIR CORRESPONDING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR. THE 00Z ETA HAD SOME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH TOO MUCH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AS DISCUSSED BY NCEP...BUT THESE APPEAR TO WASH OUT AS THE POCKET OF MOISTURE MOVES OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OTHER REAL PROBLEMS NOTED IN THE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OR THEIR CURRENT HANDLING OF THINGS...WILL UTILIZE A COMPROMISE OF THEIR GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WAA RESULTS IN A WEAK AREA OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE OVERWHELMING LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PCPN. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND THE BULK OF ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS BY THROUGH ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THE CIRRUS CURRENTLY SEEN IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WE MAY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES SLIDE INTO THE AREA. SOME 5-10K CEILINGS CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA IN THIS CAA SUBSIDENT REGION ALONG AND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...SO THE GFS DEPICTION OF HIGHER 850MB RH SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING PROBABLY HAS SOME VALIDITY. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURPASS 60F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C PROGGED BY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING WHILE THE TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ASSIST MATTERS BY PROVIDING SOME MECHANICAL MIXING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO LOCALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS. UPSTREAM HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE SIMILAR AIRMASS WERE INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND SEE NO REASON THAT THEY WON/T DO SO AGAIN. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS COULD ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS...AND A FEW SPOTS COULD ECLIPSE 65. WINDS WILL VEER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE WILL MANAGE TO NUDGE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CWFA...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND WORK TO PUSH THIS BACKDOOR FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND WAA KICKING IN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS INDICATING FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY...WITH 850MB THETA-E VALUES RISING ABOVE 310K SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWALTER INDICES DIP TO NEAR 0 BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECAST ALONG WITH FAIRLY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER AS 850MB THETA-E VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 320K OVER THE WESTERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES AND SHOWALTER INDICES FALL BELOW 0 ON MONDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION AS WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT POINT. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THINGS FURTHER...AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. LEFT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER NEARLY UNCHANGED DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH WE MAY FINALLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES DURING THAT TIME FRAME SINCE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR 50F ON MONDAY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT IS LEFT OF OUR SNOWPACK AT THAT TIME...SO THERE IS LITTLE POINT IN TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES NOW. HOWEVER...THIS IS ANOTHER ISSUE WHICH LATER SHIFTS CAN INVESTIGATE MORE CLOSELY. .MQT...NONE. TRH mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003 CORRECTED DAY IN HEADER PUBLIC: FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW LIES JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO CAPE HATTERAS. A SERIES OF LOWS HAVE BEEN FORMING AND MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WAY. THIS COMPLEX AND PERSISTENT SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS THESE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS...FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A MODIFIED BLEND OF THE AVN/ETA/NGM FOR THE FCST THRU SUN. WILL FAVOR THE AVN FOR THE NEAR TERM. DO NOT FEEL THAT THE ETAS SOLUTION OF MOVING THE SFC LOW WELL INLAND TODAY IS REALISTIC. BOTH AVN/ETA DO MOVE THE PRESENT SYSTEM AND ASSOCD POPS OFFSHORE BY SAT. WILL GO WITH THAT FOR A DRY OUTLOOK PERIOD. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES. MARINE: MODELS CONTINUE TO MISHANDLE THE COLD AIR WEDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE ETA...NGM...AND RUC AIM THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE IMPROBABLE GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY - IT SHOWS THE SFC LOW MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THIS COULD BE TOO FAR WEST IF THE WEDGE CAN HOLD ON. FPSN7 HAS STOPPED REPORTING SEAS...BUT BUOY 41004 AND 41025 SUGGEST 7-10 FT NOT UNREASONABLE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL INITIALIZE WITH A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WIND DIRECTION BECOMES OFFSHORE. WEATHER TURNS BENIGN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW PRES MOVES AWAY TO THE NE AND WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH. THANKS FOR COORDINATION MHX/CHS. FCSTID = 40 ILM 61 46 62 44 / 70 60 60 20 LBT 57 42 59 43 / 90 60 50 20 FLO 55 44 63 44 / 90 60 40 20 MYR 57 44 63 46 / 70 60 50 20 .ILM... .NC...FLOOD WATCH PENDER-NEW HANOVER-BRUNSWICK-BLADEN-COLUMBUS- ROBESON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. .SC...FLOOD WATCH HORRY-GEORGETOWN-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-DILLON- FLORENCE-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER. PUBLIC: REK MARINE: TRA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 AM EDT WED APR 10 2003 PUBLIC: FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW LIES JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO CAPE HATTERAS. A SERIES OF LOWS HAVE BEEN FORMING AND MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WAY. THIS COMPLEX AND PERSISTENT SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS THESE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS...FEEL MOST COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A MODIFIED BLEND OF THE AVN/ETA/NGM FOR THE FCST THRU SUN. WILL FAVOR THE AVN FOR THE NEAR TERM. DO NOT FEEL THAT THE ETAS SOLUTION OF MOVING THE SFC LOW WELL INLAND TODAY IS REALISTIC. BOTH AVN/ETA DO MOVE THE PRESENT SYSTEM AND ASSOCD POPS OFFSHORE BY SAT. WILL GO WITH THAT FOR A DRY OUTLOOK PERIOD. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES. MARINE: MODELS CONTINUE TO MISHANDLE THE COLD AIR WEDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE ETA...NGM...AND RUC AIM THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE IMPROBABLE GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY - IT SHOWS THE SFC LOW MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THIS COULD BE TOO FAR WEST IF THE WEDGE CAN HOLD ON. FPSN7 HAS STOPPED REPORTING SEAS...BUT BUOY 41004 AND 41025 SUGGEST 7-10 FT NOT UNREASONABLE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL INITIALIZE WITH A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WIND DIRECTION BECOMES OFFSHORE. WEATHER TURNS BENIGN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW PRES MOVES AWAY TO THE NE AND WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH. THANKS FOR COORDINATION MHX/CHS. FCSTID = 40 ILM 61 46 62 44 / 70 60 60 20 LBT 57 42 59 43 / 90 60 50 20 FLO 55 44 63 44 / 90 60 40 20 MYR 57 44 63 46 / 70 60 50 20 .ILM... .NC...FLOOD WATCH PENDER-NEW HANOVER-BRUNSWICK-BLADEN-COLUMBUS- ROBESON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. .SC...FLOOD WATCH HORRY-GEORGETOWN-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-DILLON- FLORENCE-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER. PUBLIC: REK MARINE: TRA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 948 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL GA. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS DOWN AROUND -24 C. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD TO A POSITION OVER CENTRAL SC BY 00Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW ONE VORT MAX APPROACHING THE CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SSW WITH ANOTHER PIVOTING SWWD ON THE W SIDE OF THE VORTEX ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. THE VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED E AND S OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE N AND W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX SHOW A NEARLY UNBROKEN DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES BELOW 2 KFT. THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 60 MI SSE OF CAPE FEAR NC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN, A 6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS STAYED UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT A FEW METAR SITES IN THE PANHANDLE AND GA. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 850 MB. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THIS INVERSION HANGING IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 25 KFT OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER LOOK TO GET NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WILL HOWEVER INSERT STATEMENT INTO THE ZONES ADVISING CAUTION ON AREA LAKES. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED TO TEMPS. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PW DOWN AROUND A HALF AN INCH, SO THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP. LOOKING FOR MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS IN GA ZONES, CLOSER TO COLD CORE LOW AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES. MARINE: ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO BRING SEAS FORECAST IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS. BOTH BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NEARLY 11 FOOT SEAS, WHICH IS CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH AND WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS. SCA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVEWATCH SHOWS ENVELOP OF MAXIMUM SEAS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SEWD TONIGHT, DESPITE RELATIVELY CONSTANT WIND SPEEDS. .TLH... AL...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. GA...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003 CURRENTLY: AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS KEEPING THE SKIES CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY... WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25. OFF SHORE WINDS ARE EVEN HIGHER...NW AT 25G35 WITH 10 FEET SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF RELAXING...MAY EVEN TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS PANHANDLE/ALABAMA AND KEEPING WINDS UP IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/GA BORDER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER HATTERAS AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY... SUSTAINING ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT TRAVELS. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE NE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT DOES SO. ONE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA IS HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK OVER OUR AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WHIPLASH TO APPLY AND HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH TO BRING THE LOW...WITH THE DYNAMIC ETA BRINGING THE LOW ALL THE BACK INTO GA...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. TYPICALLY WETTER FWC AND ETA STILL CALL FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS...20 TO 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE VERY DRY MAV. HAVE GONE WITH MODIFIED MAV. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE. THURSDAY WILL PROVE TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION...THE BLACKBERRY WINTER OF FOLKLORE. LOW FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS RUN. AGAIN...THE TEMP FORECAST LEANS TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE. MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY AT SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LASTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...FINALLY GOING BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED: LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT A STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO COME IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THUS WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TLH 59 43 72 45 78 2100 PFN 60 46 71 52 76 1100 DHN 54 44 70 49 77 2100 ABY 55 43 70 48 77 2100 VLD 57 46 70 48 78 2100 CTY 60 46 68 47 78 1100 $$ AFD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1020 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER. A SHORT WAVE REVOLVING AROUND THIS LOW IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ECHOES HAVE BEEN TRAINING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...AS WELL AS FARTHER S NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF FLOODING AS OF YET...PLAN ON EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS STILL APPROACHING. MAY ALSO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SE OF CAPE FEAR ACCORDING TO MSAS. THE ETA HAS THE LOW POSITIONED TO CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE GFS TO TOO FAR N. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS...AND SHOWS THE LOW MOVING INLAND JUST N OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL NEED TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR INLAND COUNTIES. ANOTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH TODAY IS THE HAIL THREAT. WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE -15 TO -20 DEG C RANGE AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT 6-9K FT. WE RECEIVED A PEA SIZE HAIL REPORT WITH A VIL LESS THAN 5 EARLIER THIS MORNING. DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. MARINE: SFC LOW WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SSE OF CAPE FEAR AT 13Z. WINDS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA ATTM ACROSS THE WATERS AND SHOULD DROP OFF AS THE LOW GETS PULLED WESTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LOW. 13Z OBSERVED SEAS 9-10 FT AT FPSN7 AND 41004 SO SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL ADJUST WINDS BASED ON LATEST LOW POSITION. .ILM... .NC...FLOOD WATCH PENDER-NEW HANOVER-BRUNSWICK-BLADEN-COLUMBUS- ROBESON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. .SC...FLOOD WATCH HORRY-GEORGETOWN-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-DILLON- FLORENCE-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON COUNTIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER. PUBLIC: JAQ MARINE: CRM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 PM EDT THU APR 10 2003 --SYNOPSIS-- WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GA/SC BORDER. A VORT LOBE IS ROTATING AROUND THE WRN QUAD AND GENERATING SOME RAIN OVER N-CENTRAL GA AND AL. FARTHER UPSTREAM... W/V IMAGES INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER OVER THE PLAINS. SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR WILMINGTON NC. WINDS OVER THE CWFA REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. --FORECAST-- TONIGHT...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NRN ZONES DUE TO MENTIONED VORT LOBE. AFTERWARDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING DRY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE E COAST AND THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT BRINGS A SURFACE RIDGE TOWARDS OUR CWFA. FIRE WEATHER...WE SHOULD SEE MARGINAL DURATIONS OF LOW RH VALUES OVER FL ZONES FRIDAY...AND THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20 FT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ASSUMING QUITE LOW GUIDANCE DEWPOINT THAT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME BEING REALIZED GIVEN THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS MAY WELL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CWFA. EXTENDED (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...AS UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES E INTO THE ERN USA...10/06Z GFS PUSHES REINFORCING FRONT S INTO THE CWFA AND GENERATES SOME PRECIP. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS YET...AS WE EXPECT A RATHER DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE DURING THIS TIME. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE CERTAINLY FREE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING E INTO THE CWFA. HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER WED AND THU OVER WRN ZONES...WHERE GFS PROGS BETTER MOIST RETURN AND EVIDENCE OF A BOUNDARY LIFTING N. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TLH 043/074 046/078 0000 PFN 047/072 052/079 0000 DHN 044/072 049/077 2000 ABY 043/072 048/077 2000 VLD 045/073 047/079 0000 CTY 043/069 047/077 0000 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. $$ TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. *********************************************************** 948 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL GA. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS DOWN AROUND -24 C. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD TO A POSITION OVER CENTRAL SC BY 00Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW ONE VORT MAX APPROACHING THE CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SSW WITH ANOTHER PIVOTING SWWD ON THE W SIDE OF THE VORTEX ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. THE VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED E AND S OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE N AND W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX SHOW A NEARLY UNBROKEN DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES BELOW 2 KFT. THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 60 MI SSE OF CAPE FEAR NC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN, A 6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS STAYED UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT A FEW METAR SITES IN THE PANHANDLE AND GA. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 850 MB. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THIS INVERSION HANGING IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 25 KFT OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER LOOK TO GET NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WILL HOWEVER INSERT STATEMENT INTO THE ZONES ADVISING CAUTION ON AREA LAKES. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED TO TEMPS. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PW DOWN AROUND A HALF AN INCH, SO THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP. LOOKING FOR MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS IN GA ZONES, CLOSER TO COLD CORE LOW AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES. MARINE: ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO BRING SEAS FORECAST IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS. BOTH BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NEARLY 11 FOOT SEAS, WHICH IS CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH AND WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS. SCA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVEWATCH SHOWS ENVELOP OF MAXIMUM SEAS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SEWD TONIGHT, DESPITE RELATIVELY CONSTANT WIND SPEEDS. .TLH... AL...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. GA...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES. CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003 CURRENTLY: AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS KEEPING THE SKIES CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY... WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25. OFF SHORE WINDS ARE EVEN HIGHER...NW AT 25G35 WITH 10 FEET SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF RELAXING...MAY EVEN TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS PANHANDLE/ALABAMA AND KEEPING WINDS UP IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/GA BORDER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER HATTERAS AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY... SUSTAINING ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT TRAVELS. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE NE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT DOES SO. ONE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA IS HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK OVER OUR AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WHIPLASH TO APPLY AND HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH TO BRING THE LOW...WITH THE DYNAMIC ETA BRINGING THE LOW ALL THE BACK INTO GA...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. TYPICALLY WETTER FWC AND ETA STILL CALL FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS...20 TO 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE VERY DRY MAV. HAVE GONE WITH MODIFIED MAV. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE. THURSDAY WILL PROVE TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION...THE BLACKBERRY WINTER OF FOLKLORE. LOW FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS RUN. AGAIN...THE TEMP FORECAST LEANS TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE. MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY AT SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LASTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...FINALLY GOING BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED: LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT A STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO COME IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THUS WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TLH 59 43 72 45 78 2100 PFN 60 46 71 52 76 1100 DHN 54 44 70 49 77 2100 ABY 55 43 70 48 77 2100 VLD 57 46 70 48 78 2100 CTY 60 46 68 47 78 1100 $$ AFD fl