AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 117 PM MST WED JAN 1 2003 LATEST RUC HANDLING THE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW FROM NEAR BENKELMAN TO BURLINGTON AND POINTS WEST WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF THE 4 TO 7 ALREADY BEING REPORTED BY CO- OP AND SPOTTER NETWORK. THANKS TO THEM FOR THEIR REPORTS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WILL CANCEL WARNING ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. .GLD...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO...DUNDY COUNTY NEBRASKA... CHEYENNE AND SHERMAN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1133 AM MST WED JAN 1 2003 FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...REMOVED RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA AND DECATUR COUNTY KANSAS FROM WARNING BASED ON 88D AND RUC PRECIP TRENDS. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED WITH ABOUT HALF OR A BIT MORE ALREADY BEING REPORTED BY THE FINE OBSERVERS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TREK SOUTHEAST WITH LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS JUST NORTHWEST OF YUMA COUNTY. EXTRAPOLATION OF RUC/MESO ETA SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EAST. BY EVENING...SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER WITH CLEARING EARLY MORNING. OTHER THAN TWEAKING TIMING OF SNOW OVER THE EAST...ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN AND TWEAKED AFTERNOON AND GRIDDED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON RUC. .GLD...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO. DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA. CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...SHERMAN...THOMAS... WALLACE...LOGAN...GREELEY...AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 845 PM CST WED JAN 1 2003 WILL SENT AN UPDATE FOR A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS S AR/NW LA HAVE BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT AS OF 02Z APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF A PRX... TRL...CRS LINE. VERY STRONG GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS S OK/N TX THUS INCREASED WINDS JUST A LITTLE IN THE WEST AND BUMPED UP ZONES NORTHWEST OF I-30 CORRIDOR TO CAUTION CRITERIA. PRECIP BROKE OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK ALONG AND AHEAD OF EASTWARD MOVING COMMA HEAD NEAR MLC AT THIS TIME. LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY INTO SW AR LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING BEING THE MAIN PLAYER AS TO IF ANY LIQUID PRECIP CAN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. RUC40 AND 00Z MESOETA FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N MCCURTAIN SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING AWFUL SHALLOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z OR THE PERIOD THAT A CHANGE OVER WOULD OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE TOTALLY FROM THE FCST SO WILL LEAVE AS IS. UPDATE PLANNED FOR 930...13. .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1045 AM EST WED JAN 01 2003 LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN AREA OF MDT TO HVY RAIN LIFTING NWD ACROSS CWA. PRECIP OVR FAR SRN ZONES IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WILL WORD PRECIP AS SHRAS SRN ZONES WHERE PRECIP IS MORE SCATTERED. WILL MENTION TSRA POSSIBLE THERE TOO WHERE SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. 12Z RUC2 FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TT OF 55 WITH LIFTED AND SHOWALTER BECOMING NEGATIVE AND CAPES 200-400 J/KG AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. ROSA ...SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU THU... STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING CWA FROM SW AND PLENTY OF PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY IT. DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...FRONTOGENESIS ASSOC WITH 850MB WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYSTEM CAUSED SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO FALL OUT OF A MID DECK N 1/3 CWA. THIS WAS JUST THE PRECURSOR TO THE STRONG LIFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING LOW TODAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES REACH 1.5 INCHES THIS AFT AND STRONG UL DIV...500-700MB PVA AND 850MB UPSLOPE UP TO 40KTS WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ABT AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 02Z. LOW MOVES QUICKLY NE OF CWA BY 06Z...TAKING CONCENTRATED FORCING WITH IT. HOWEVER...IT LEAVES PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR DAMMING IN ITS WAKE. WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF 2ND LOW...WEAK OVERRUNNING SETS UP. THIS SCENERIO GIVES THREAT OF -DZ OR -FZDZ THU MORN...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THU AFT...COLDER AIR SHOWS UP ALOFT AS RIDGING PUSHES E OF CWA. THIS IN COMBO WITH SOME LIFT STARTING TO REACH W CWA FROM NEXT LOW WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR -SN IN NW ZONES. IT LOOKS LIKE REST OF CWA WILL NOT SEE LIFT UNTIL THU NITE SO EVEN THOUGH SOUNDING WILL START TO COOL ALOFT...SUPERCOOLED DROPLET PROCESSES WILL PREVAIL...KEEPING PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. WILL KEEP PRECIP AS -DZ/-FZDZ REST OF CWA THU AFT. MMARGRAF .LATER PERIODS...BASIC MDL CONSENSUS THRU WKND. PTTN LOOKS TO BE AN ACTV ONE...AND QSTN IF EACH WAVE IS GETTING ITS DUE...OR IF MASSIVE FEEDBACK PRESENT. FOR THIS REASON...WL BE MAKING ONLY SMALL STEPS IF ANY CHG AT ALL. W/ SUCH AN ACTV PTTN /WAVES EVRY 36 HRS/...THESE SVRL WVS MAY MERGE INTO ONE GLOOMY STRETCH FM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE. TIMING ON 2ND S/WV LT THU/FRI HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SVRL DAYS NOW. STRNG OMEGA FIELD PRSNT OVR CWFA...SPCLY ONCE CSTL SFC LOW TAKES OVR FRI. MSTR CERTAINLY PRESENT SFC-H7 FOR LIFT TO ACT UPON. SO...FEEL COMFY BUMPING POPS UP TO LIKELY W THU NGT..EVRYWHR FRI. NOW...FOR PTYPE-- THE BIG MYSTERY. 00Z RUN COMING IN A PINCH COLDER...LEANING MORE TWD SNW. COLD AIR DAMMING PRESENT...WHICH SYNOPTIC MDLS ALWAYS ERIDE AWAY TOO QUICKLY. THRML PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST A COLD SOLN. HWVR...TKNS SCHEMES HINT AT WARMTH ALFT...W/ LIQUID PCP SERN THIRD. THIS LYR CAN BE SPOTTED IN SDNGS AT 800 MB...BUT NEVER CROSSES 0C ISOTHERM. BOURGOIUN /ENERGY/ METHOD PROBABLY BETTER AT DISCERNING PTYPE...BUT W/ SFC AND/OR H8 LOWS POTENTIALLY TRACKING OHD...WOULD RATHER NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC IN FCST YET. SUSPECT WRN HALF WUD REMAIN ALL SNW...A SMALL ERN/SERN PORTION ALL RAIN...WITH SOME SORT OF TRANSITION ZN IN BTWN. WL MAKE EASY COMMITMENT TO ALL SNW W OF BLURDG AS LOW PULLS AWAY FRI NGT...AND LET THE REST STAND AS IS. SHSN IN WRN MTNS SAT...THEN A TRANSITORY PD BEFORE NXT S/WV SUN. NEW GDNC SUGGESTING THIS TOO WL DROP PCPN...AND THIS TIME IS WUD BE ALL SNW. HWVR...SINCE THIS IS THE THIRD STORM THE MDLS ARE ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE...I/VE OPTED TO LET DAYSHFT HNDL IT. I/VE INCRSD CLDCVR FOR THE WKND AS FLW NEVER REALLY DVLP GOOD DWNSLOPING TO SCOUR OUT PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR. SMALL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS...BUT OVRALL STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS. HV MADE NO CHGS TO FCST MON-TUE. HTS .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SCA CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL PTMC COBB ISL TO SMITH PT. md EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 819 PM CST WED JAN 1 2003 HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE INCREASING PRECIP IN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD JUST SOUTH OF TULSA. OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ECHOES HAVE STEADILY INCREASED ON AREA RADARS...ALTHOUGH IT WAS JUST RECENTLY THAT PRECIP BEGAN TO REACH THE GROUND IN OUR CWA. SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ENID OK TO PARSONS KANSAS LINE AT 02Z WITH PATCHES OF RAIN WORKING TO THE GROUND IN THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RUC MODEL GRID POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SWITCH THE PRECIP TO SNOW ANYWHERE IN THE AREA WHERE SUSTAINED PRECIP OCCURS. PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL VERY TRICKY GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILES WITH THE SYSTEM. DID NOT CHANGE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS UPDATE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE CONCERNS THAT AMOUNTS COULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN FIRST THOUGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...BUT COULD BE MORE IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IF THE COMMA HEAD PRECIP CONTIUES TO INCREASE. WILL WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MAKE A DECISSION ON EXPANDIG THE ADVISORY SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. FORECAST ID= 8 .TSA... OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT OKZ054>063...067>069. ARK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT ARZ001-002-010-011. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1035 AM EST WED JAN 1 2003 UPPER LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW...WITH LOW CEILING DECKS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LARGE BREAKS AND SOME SUN HAVE PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S ALREADY. THIS ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ARE ALLOWING SCT SHOWERS TO FORM PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TRY TO TIME SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MSAS LI ANALYSIS AND ETA THETA-E FIELDS SHOW STABLE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...HIGHER WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO MIX DOWN. BASED ON THE LATEST ETA AND RUC40 DATA...WILL LOWER SPEEDS TO JUST BELOW BREEZY OVER THE INLAND ZONES. CWF...WINDS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE SW. SPEEDS AT BUOY 8 SEEM A BIT LOW WHEN COMPARED TO SPAG1 W/MARGINAL SCA FOR SEAS. SHOULD SEE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WINDS AND SEAS AOA SCA THOUGH AS GRAD PINCHES JUST A LITTLE MORE...SO DO NOT PLAN TO REMOVE ANY HEADLINES. WILL ADJUST INIT CONDS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS. .CHS... GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ354-374. SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352. WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE. PY/MR sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 940 AM EST WED JAN 1 2003 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW NEAR THE KY/WV BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS OVER THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DRYING WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING. RUC HAS A SECOND VORT MAX NEAR ATL WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. SATPIX SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL BEGIN MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT THE THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL TO CONTINUE TIL EVENING. FCSTID = 2 CAE 64 45 63 43 / 50 10 10 30 AGS 62 46 64 44 / 50 10 10 30 SSC 65 45 63 43 / 50 10 10 30 OGB 64 45 64 43 / 50 10 10 30 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 240 AM MST THU JAN 2 2003 THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS OF SNOW COVER THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES ARE CLEARING IN THE SUBSIDENCE AND AND HIGHER PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR. ALL MODELS ARE PERFORMING SIMILARLY WITH COMPARABLE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. BELIEVE ALL THE MODELS ARE GOING TOO WARM TODAY WITH REMAINING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ETA BEING SOMEWHAT QUICKER TO WARM DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WILL GERNEALLY UNDERCUT HIGHS TODAY AND GO WITH THE WARMING TREND OF THE MESOETA IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RUC ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FOLLOWING SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH THESE SYSTEMS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH EACH SYSTEM. .GLD...NONE. LOCKHART ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 220 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003 WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER... SOUTHWEST OF KSGF AT 07Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LARGE PRECIPITATION AREA NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW...FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ANOTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WAS OVER THE OZARKS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. BOTH PRECIP AREAS WERE DEVELOPING EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...WITH BOTH THE ETA/AVN TAKING IT JUST SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS AROUND 18Z...THEN ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY OF INDIANA BY 00Z. ETA SHOWS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THIS PATH...WITH ONLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE DUE TO A STRONG VORT ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE AVN SHOWS. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WHERE THE PRECIP IS MOSTLY SNOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE ADVISORY AREA. PRECIP TYPE CENTERS MAINLY ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS INDICATE THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY 12Z...SO ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS ARE THE KEY TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THE 32 DEGREE SURFACE WET BULB TEMP CURRENTLY MARKS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WELL. THE ETA SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THIS ISOTHERM TODAY...WHILE THE RUC DROPS IT SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE WINDS BACK INTO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST TODAY...LOWER WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD ADVECT SLOWLY SOUTH. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR OVER ALL BUT THE HOPKINSVILLE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. 01/00Z MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FROM BOTH NGM/AVN VERIFIED TOO COLD FOR LOWS THIS MORNING. WILL STAY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY. DESPITE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE TONIGHT...THE MODELS END MEASURABLE PRECIP AROUND 00Z AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR THE EVV TRI STATE GOING INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REFREEZING AS TEMPS FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. AVN/NGM MOS LOWS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON WHEN AND IF CLEARING OCCURS. ETA LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF KENTUCKY. WILL TREND TOWARD THE COLDER AVN MOS FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT EVV. EXPECT SOME SUN IN SE MISSOURI... AND WILL GO WARMER THAN AVN MOS THERE. PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AS THE GFS/AVN SHOWS A SERIES OF NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES. .PAH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA. $$ MY/GM ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 337 AM EST THU JAN 2 2003 THE MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TEMPERATURES. UPPER MICHIGAN IS IN STORE FOR A RATHER QUITE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OZARKS AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TRAILING THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR AND 280K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING MAINLY DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT INDUCED CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP ON 3.9U IR SATELLITE AND IN THE SURFACE REPORTS OVER THE U.P. THE AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AT THIS TIME...ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL U.P. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN RESPECT TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SURFACE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER 48 HOURS GFS AND ECMWF WERE VERY SIMILAR...WITH ETA INTENSIFYING MORE AND SLOWING THE SYSTEMS DOWN MORE THAN THE OTHERS. CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL IS A COMPROMISE... BUT IS STILL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ETA SOLUTION. UKMET DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. GFS HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE UKMET/ETA SLOW THE SYSTEMS DOWN AND MAKING THESE MORE INTENSE. I WILL FAVOR THE GFS SINCE IT HAS SHOWN BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC PULLING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...VEERING EAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY. SOLAR RADIATION WILL PRODUCE ONLY LIMITED HEATING TODAY AS THE CLOUD COVER WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA. GFS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE AT 850MB AND SURFACE FROM YESTERDAY... HOWEVER...ETA FAVORS AN INCREASE OF 4F TO 6F OVER YESTERDAY. TRAJECTORY FORECAST IS PULLING THE AIR MASS THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES THERE WERE IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS YESTERDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS AS IT PASSES OVER THE LAKES...THUS GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN ETA. THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL FILL AND SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. CONDITION FAVOR DOWN SLOPE OVER THE AREA AND LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME RADIATION COOLING AND TEMPERATURE A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN MANITOBA ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ON SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO -6C. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE SAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO END SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE COLD AIR ADVECTION. DELTA-T'S WILL ALSO LOWER TO 16C OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS APT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. .MQT...NONE. DLG mi COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 330 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003 FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO ADDITIONAL MIXING. WILL CONT FCST OF BREEZY INLAND WITH WINDY ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PGF WEAKENS AND LAPSE RATES STABILIZE. HIGHS TDY WILL FOLLOW MAV WITH COOLEST TEMPS NE WHERE BEST CAA IS LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT...BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL DIE OFF FASTER THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS OVER WEST/INLAND AREAS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA SO EASTERN/COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DECENT NORTH WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN INLAND LOCATIONS AND WILL UNDERCUT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HERE. BELIEVE A FEW MINS OF 32 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...HWR THESE FREEZING TEMPS WOULD BE BRIEF. WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT COLDER TEMPS TONIGHT. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE CWA AND THUS SLY FLOW WILL NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL SAT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON FRI NIGHT BEFORE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INFILTRATE THE AREA AND MIN TEMPS MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...WX LOOKS FANTASTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND KEEPING DRY NWLY FLOW GOING. THIS SHOULD SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MON...BUT AM CERTAIN THAT COOLEST AIR WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY ADVECT IN DRIER SFC AIR TO RE-ENFORCE NICE WX. WILL CONT FCST OF VALUES HIGHER THAN CLIMO. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING WINTER BACK TO THE CONUS AND S TX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. CRP UU 063/036 067/039 071 92000 VCT UU 059/033 064/037 069 92000 LRD UU 067/039 070/041 072 92000 MARINE...SURGE OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT OCCURRING PRETTY MUCH AS FORECAST. NGM/AVN HAS A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE WINDS THAN RUC OR ETA. GOING FORECASTS ON TARGET WITH A FEW MINOR CHANGES...ALTHOUGH WILL BRING A WINDSHIFT TO NW IN FOR THE BAYS LATE MONDAY. .CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275 THROUGH TONIGHT. 92/TR 70/PURPURA tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 250 AM EST THU JAN 2 2003 WILL BE DROPPING ALL HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT ANY HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY ATTM FOR THE FRI-SAT STORM SYS. 1ST STORM SYS TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG TODAY. A RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...AS A 2ND STORM SYS TRACKS ACRS THE SE USA. THIS 2ND STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF SRN NEW ENG ON FRI/FRI NITE...THEN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SAT AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HI PRESS BUILDS ACRS THE ERN GREAT LKS REGION. THIS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON SAT NITE/SUN. SECONDARY TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON SAT AS WELL. WILL BE LEANING ON THE 00Z GFS DEPICTION OF 2ND STORM SYS FOR NOW TO BE SAFE AND TRY NOT TO REPEAT THE TREND OF PULLING PCPN FROM THE FCST ONLY TO HAVE TO PUT IT BACK AT A LATER DATE. 03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F TODAY WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT MESONET OBS...THESE RANGES APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALLPARK FOR TODAY/S MAXES. LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. RUC SHOWS PCPN (IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY SN) TO COME TO AN END ACRS THE FA BY AROUND 12Z TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS WELL. H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN WAA FOR TONITE AND ON FRI...WITH WK CAA ON FRI NITE/SAT. H85 TEMPS TO STAY BLO 0C ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE TONITE AND EARLY ON FRI. LOW-LVLS LOOK TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TONITE...THEN LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA ON FRI THRU SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES). LOW-LVLS TO DRY OUT ACRS THE FA FOR SAT NITE/SUN. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE AND LINGER ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF FRI THRU SAT. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE 0.3-0.4" ACRS THE FA ON FRI THRU SAT. USING A BLEND OF THE 00Z ETA/GFS YIELDS BLO 0.4" OF QPF ACRS THE SRN FA ON FRI THRU SAT. WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR ADDED IN... THIS SYS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FURTHER FOR ANY HEADLINES AT A LATER TIME. HAVE BROKEN OUT THE SRN 4 CTYS OF VT FOR ANY ONGOING PCPN EARLY TODAY (AS WELL THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SN ON FRI-SAT) AND WILL HANG ONTO TO THE PTLY SUNNY WORDING ACRS THE REST OF THE FA FOR TODAY. AFTER TAKING A GANGER AT LATEST BUFR DATA...AM UNIMPRESSED WITH THE PROSPECT FOR ANY LK CHAMP LES TODAY. WILL HANDLE WITH THE STF IF IN FACT IT DOES OCCUR. FA EXPECTED TO BE DRY (AFTER THE PCPN MOVES OUT EARLY TODAY IN SRN VT) THRU TONITE...THEN SOME SOLID PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN (MOSTLY ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES) BY LATER ON FRI AND INTO SAT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SRN TIER AND CHC POPS FOR NOW ACRS THE REST OF THE FA THEN. MORE DRY WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA ON SAT NITE/SUN WITH HI PRESS BUILDING IN THEN. NO CHANGES TO MON THRU WED FCST FOR NOW. WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 910 PM PST WED JAN 01 2003 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING OUT OF THE VALLEYS. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .DISCUSSION... .TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED INTO NW MONTANA WITH MOIST SW FLOW NOW FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE ENTIRE INLAND NW. LOOKS LIKE ONE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS NOW TRACKING NE INTO WESTERN MANITOBA...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER FEATURE JUST WEST OF 130W. MEANWHILE FARTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A PRIMLY SLOPED PRESSURE FIELD WITH A STRONG PERPENDICULAR UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. THIS UPSLOPE MOTION COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND NW. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...THE PRECIP ECHOES STREAMING NE FROM OREGON HAVE BECOME MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PER THE PORTLAND RADAR. THE 00Z ETA AND RUC HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND SUGGEST LEE SIDE AREAS OF THE CASCADES MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL MORNING...WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NEARS THE COAST. BY THIS TIME THE ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4000 FEET AT WENATCHEE AND AROUND 2000 FEET AT OMAK. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THIS NOTION IS A TAD OVERDONE...BUT THEN AGAIN ANY RISING COMBINED WITH THE LULL IN THE ACTION SUGGESTS WE CAN LIKELY DROP THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE WENATCHEE AREA. WE ARE A LITTLE MORE LEERY ABOUT DROPPING HIGHLIGHTS ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU DUE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND UP TOWARD OMAK WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS FROM THE CASCADES ARE NEVER QUITE AS PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PROXIMITY TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO SNOW LEVELS. HERE AT THE SPOKANE WEATHER OFFICE WE HAVE SEEN NEARLY 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATE...SO THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS CONTINUE. THE RUC AND ETA SUGGEST THE A STRENGTHENING WARM SECTOR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY NE OVERNIGHT. THE 03Z RUC DEPICTED AN 850 MB TEMP OF -2 OVER SPOKANE WITH THE 0C LINE EXTENDING FROM MOSES LAKE TO PULLMAN. FORTUNATELY WE HAD A VALUABLE ACARS SOUNDING AT 03Z WHICH SHOWED THAT BOTH THE RUC AND ETA SOUDINGS WERE RIGHT ON THE MONEY. THUS WE SUSPECT THAT ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LIFT OFF THE GROUND FROM SPOKANE TO WENATCHEE BEFORE 10 PM AND SOUTH OF AN OMAK TO COLVILLE LINE BY 4AM. WE WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. FOR THURSDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AS THE OFFSHORE TROF PUSHES AN EVEN JUICER PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND NW. AGAIN THE ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW PLENTY OF LIFT...BUT WARM AIR WILL HAVE OVERTAKE JUST ABOUT ALL THE VALLEYS BY THAT TIME DUE TO THE FAIRLY ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-5K FEET NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND QUITE A BIT HIGHER ELSEWHERE. FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TREND. QPF VALUES FOR TOMORROW LOOK AWFULLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF OVER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THIS OBVIOUSLY BODES WELL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WARNINGS IN THE NORTH SO WILL LEAVE AS IS. THE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO LOOKS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE WARM AIR. FX ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 033/039/035/040/035/041 987756 COE 033/038/035/040/034/041 987757 PUW 036/043/035/044/037/046 666657 LWS 036/048/038/049/039/049 555456 CQV 031/034/035/040/034/042 989967 SPT 030/033/033/040/033/041 988856 WWP 030/036/032/038/033/039 787756 EAT 031/039/032/040/031/040 636654 MWH 035/042/034/043/034/044 546644 OMK 030/037/032/039/032/038 969966 .OTX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR WAZ042>044-037-038 AND IDZ01-04... wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 230 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003 SATELLITE SHOWS A THIN STRIP OF CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST LA OUT INTO THE GULF. RUC 250 WINDS SHOW 110KT WINDS DIRECTING LINE. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STRETCH FROM KLCH TO NSF TO KMLU. DPTS OVER EAST TX HAVE DROPPED ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR. MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MS...SPREADING NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING. META SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SAME GENERAL POSITION AS THE MSAS ANALYSIS SW AR AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z. KLZK RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER NW AR...DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO REACH CWA THOUGH. EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR CLOUDS OVER SOUTH MS...MAY GO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. WITH LOW OVER AR...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTH MS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS SEEM TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MODELS PAINT LIGHT QPF OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WILL REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES. WILL USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR CLOUDS AND TEMPS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. STILL EXPECTING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WILL THINK ABOUT ADDING THUNDER TO MONDAY. AVN SHOWS SOME VERTICAL MOTION AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND THE AREA WILL GET A SHORT BREAK. PRELIM NUMBERS... JAN 049/030/044/025/050 3000 MEI 050/030/043/023/050 3000 .JAN... AR...NONE LA...NONE MS...NONE. ms EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 240 AM PST THU JAN 2 2003 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...AND RAIN TO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VALLEY RAIN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF EITHER SNOW OR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS SKY ROCKET TO 5 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET. .DISCUSSION... .TODAY-SATURDAY...GFS AND ETA TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE SIMILAR...AND WE WILL NOT DEPART TOO MUCH FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE RUC/ETA FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR PRECIP TYPE. EXPECTING A WAVE EACH PERIOD OF THE FCST EXCEPT MAYBE FRI...SO RATHER HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE (ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTN ZONES). IMMEDIATE FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE SNOW LEVELS AND SFC TEMPS. ETA 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM AS FOR NORTH AS THE SRN PART OF NRN MTN ZONES THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE CASCADES WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS IN PLACE. MAIN THREAT FOR BRIEF FREEZING PRECIP WL BE ROUGHLY FROM KEAT NEWD TO SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE WA. SIGNIFICANT ICING NOT EXPECTED ATTM. OTHERWISE, WILL KEEP CURRENT BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS GOING FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND NE WA/N ID INTO TONIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 4-6K FT, ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN TODAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE OMAK THIS MORNING, WITH SNOW HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN 4-6K FT THROUGH FRI NT. WL DOWNGRADE PRECIP IN THE BASIN ZONES TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRI WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, WITH WLY 850MB FLOW AND CAA IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY. BRIEFLY WINDY FRI AND FRI NT. SAT CONTINUED WET, WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIMED AT THE PAC NW. .SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...LATEST MRF/GFS RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A WET FORECAST WITH A GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TAP. THE ONLY CHANGE IS SOME SLIGHT COOLING WITH A FRONT PASSING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. DID NOT JUMP ON THIS PARTICULAR PART OF THE SOLUTION HOWEVER AND JUST KEPT THE FORECAST RELATIVELY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 039/035/041/033/042 ++289 COE 039/035/040/034/042 ++589 PUW 043/036/044/036/046 87367 LWS 044/037/047/037/049 53135 CQV 036/034/040/034/042 ++699 SPT 036/033/040/033/041 ++889 WWP 036/033/038/033/039 ++889 EAT 040/034/043/033/040 42-56 MWH 042/035/044/034/045 65156 OMK 037/033/039/033/039 77276 .OTX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT IDZ001,004. HEAVY SNOW WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT WAZ037,038. HEAVY SNOW WARNING TODAY WAZ042. HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WAZ043. HEAVY SNOW WARNING THIS MORNING WAZ044. wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 100 PM EST THU JAN 02 2003 SYNOPSIS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW THE SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY THE CLOSED LOW MOVING E ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE IS NOTED ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS LA. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN U.S. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SWD FROM IT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONT NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER. THE FRONT IS DELINEATED NICELY BY A ROPE CLOUD EXTENDING OUT INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. KBMX RADARS SHOWS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL AL, BUT KMOB RADAR INDICATES THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT IS STILL QUIET. MODEL DISCUSSION/FORECAST: THE CURRENT MEAN LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OUT W AND A TROUGH IN THE E. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORT WAVES. TIMING OF THE FIRST FROPA REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SEE 1018 AM DISCUSSION BELOW. FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL BE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ANTICIPATE ABOUT A 20 POP MOST ZONES. SINCE SHOWERS WILL REACH WRN ZONES BEFORE 00Z...WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A REST OF TODAY PERIOD. FOR FRI, CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO REACH 50 ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWFA. FRI NIGHT, EXPECT A FREEZE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND AREAS FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SAT. BY SUN, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SWINGING ESEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BE ALMOST NONEXISTENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. INHERITED FORECAST HAS MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND STILL THINK THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS ONE. MARINE: CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN DATA SHOW MARGINAL SCEC WINDS (15-20KT) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MARGINAL SCA (20+KT) BEHIND IT. WILL FOLLOW THIS IN THE FORECAST AND ISSUE THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL NOT DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS UNTIL SAT. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED WITH FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT LOOK FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET WITH THE NEXT ONE MON NIGHT INTO TUE (SEE BELOW). FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. EXTENDED: A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN AL MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE PUNCHING ACROSS THE CWFA ON TUE. AGAIN THE PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL BE BRIEF, BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FORECAST MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 41 50 26 56 2000 PFN 41 51 32 54 2000 DHN 39 47 29 52 3000 ABY 42 47 28 52 2000 VLD 42 50 28 54 2000 CTY 45 55 27 56 2000 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SCA SUWANNEE RIVER TO DTS OUT 60NM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 1018 AM EST THU JAN 02 2003 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MS RIVER ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN MEM AND GLH WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM IT ACROSS SE LA AND INTO THE NW GULF. FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX OF THE DAY SHOW SOME TEXTURE TO THE CLOUDS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. KMOB RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, 12Z KTLH SOUNDING INDICATES DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A PW OF JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWEST 100 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A 4 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED AT 900 MB. THIS LIMITED RETURN FLOW SCENARIO WAS WELL ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD KEEP OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE PRETTY LOW WITH THIS FRONT. STILL, MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. AVAILABLE INSOLATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT REACHING OUR WRN ZONES AROUND 00Z AND PUSHING E OF THE CWFA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BASED ON THIS TIMING, WILL REMOVE POPS FROM ERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND FROM WRN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. MARINE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 816 AM EST THU JAN 02 2003 WILL BE ISSUING A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING COASTAL WATERS SEAS FORECAST INTO AGREEMENT WITH OBS. 42036 STILL SHOWS NEARLY 7 FT. WILL DELAY SCEC WINDS UNTIL EVENING PERIOD WRN LEGS AND HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOW. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 230 AM EST THU JAN 02 2003 CURRENTLY: CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH CEILINGS FROM 1K SE ALA TO 2K ERN THIRD OF CWFA. TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM BOTH MID 40S SE ALA TO MID 50S/LOW 50S BIG BEND. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON SHOWS LOCAL AIR MASS 4-10 DEGREES COOLER AND DRIER. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO CALM TO LIGHT NW. DISCUSSION: LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM PRIMARILY N OF BORDER. SRN STREAM REMAINING MORE ACTIVE. AS IN RECENT DAYS...STRONG PAC JET CONTINUES TO IMPACT W COAST BUT FOCUS SHIFTS N TO WASHINGTON STATE. REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS LOCAL COLD FRONT IN COMBO WITH VICINITY SUBTROPICAL JET TO GENERATE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SRN FL PENINSULA. LOCALLY: AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW TRANSLATES TO QUICK CHANGES. UPR LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT ACTIVE WX MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LEAVING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SE CONUS. SURFACE REFLECTION ALSO OVER N ENGLAND WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD. AMPLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS STILL IMPACTING LOCAL AREA. THIS REFLECTED IN 00Z TLH SOUNDING WITH STRONG INVERSION AT 910MB TRAPPING CLOUDS BELOW AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW INVERSION WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY WEAKENING SO CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND A GOOD BET TO REMAIN INTO TONIGHT. HOW MUCH THINNING WILL DETERMINE MAX TEMPS. GFS FASTEST IN CLEARING US OUT. I.E. GFS SHOWS 70 AT TLH AS COMPARED TO SLOWER ETA (65) AND NGM (64). BETTING THAT TEMPS WILL MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE MAV. HOWEVER NEXT SYSTEMS RAPIDLY SETTING UP. VERY STRONG UPPER LOW AND DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS AR TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED LOW TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING TO CAROLINA COAST NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAIL TO MOVE ACROSS LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT HOURS. GFS/ETA CLOSE WITH GFS A TAD FASTER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALTHOUGH RRQ OF 100 KT JET AT BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL COME CLOSE TO AREA...SHOULD REMAIN N WITH UPPER DYNAMICS IN GENERAL REMAINING FURTHER N THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM. ALSO...GULF RETURN FLOW HAS NOT HAD MUCH TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED AND WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND FROM WSW...AHEAD OF FRONT SO NOT IDEAL FLOW TO PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD. IN FACT MODELS CONSISTENT WITH EACH RUN IN LOWERING POPS. FORECAST WILL BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ...BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON SE AL AHEAD OF FRONT AND CONTINUING INTO NIGHT HOURS. HIGHEST POPS SE AL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MAIN IMPACT OF FRONT WILL BE TO ALLOW NRN STREAM TO SURGE SWD WITH CANADIAN COLD AIR TO PENETRATE INTO LOCAL AREA. CLOUDS THIN TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY EVENING AND APPROACH OF HIGH DEADENS WINDS. MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN USA LATE FRI-SAT THANKS TO A SUCCESSION OF VORT MAXES DROPPING SE FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS CONSISTENT THAT PREDAWN LOWS DROP TO MID 20S COLDEST LOCATIONS AND FIRST HARD FREEZE OF SEASON NOT OUT OF QUESTION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT-SUN. LATEST MEX SHOWS 26/27 DEGREES AT TLH FOR THESE DAYS. FIRE WEATHER - NO CONCERNS. MARINE - WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP. OVERNIGHT BUOYS SHOW WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WITH OFFSHORE SEAS DOWN TO ABOUT 6-7 FEET. EXPECT FURTHER DIP IN SEAS BY SUNRISE SO WILL DROP SCA BOTH W/E LEGS. HOWEVER THIS SHORT LIVED AS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AND SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN TONIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT. BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1050 AM CST THU JAN 2 2003 MESOETA AND RUC SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOWS UP WELL AS RAGGED DEF ZONE OVER NE AND CNTRL MO. IN ADDITION...SOME WEAK FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING CAUSING SNOW CURRENTLY OVER E CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT SW IL. ALL OF THIS FORCING MOVES RAPIDLY OFF TO THE E AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP TO DIMINISH OVER AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC REPORTS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS ONLY ACCUMULATING ONE OR TWO TENTHS AN HOUR...SO WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO MENTION UP TO ANOTHER INCH IN I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH 1 TO 2 IN UIN AREA. JUST LIGHT SN OR FZDZ EXPECTED IN SRN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES ALONE FOR NOW...LETTING THEM EXPIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. .STL...WINTER STRM WARNING TDA FM CNTRL AND E CNTRL MO AND SW IL WINTER WX ADVSRY TDA FOR PRTNS OF NE MO/W CNTRL IL BRITT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 310 PM CST THU JAN 2 2003 ...NEAR TERM... KIND OF A FRUSTRATING PACKAGE TODAY. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN THE NEAR TERM BUT DIVERGE LATER AS NORMAL. NEAR TERM IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING BUT RUC AND MESO ETA WOULD SUGGEST THAT VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WITH US FOR AWHILE. BECAUSE OF THIS LEFT CLOUDS IN TONIGHT. CONSIDERED AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT WERE PICKING UP ON THIS AREA SHOW THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING. NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT AS SMALL DEEPENING H5 LOW APPROACHES OVER RIDGE. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOW DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT. PREVIOUS RUNS DOWN PLAYED THIS FEATURE BUT CURRENT RUN MOVES IT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THIS AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE EAST. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDED THE DURATION. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. NEXT FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS SUNDAY AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. CURRENT RUN DEPICTS A WEAKER WAVE THAN PRECIOUS AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES. APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY PUSHES FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT MODEL SHOWS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HAVE EDGED POPS BACK SLIGHTLY. ...LONG TERM... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGH TUES (DAY 5) BEFORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE DAY 4 INTO FIRST PART OF DAY5 WITH WARM FROPA PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH CWA AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PASS OVER CWA LATE DAY 6 (WED) INTO DAY 7. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS WARM FRONT SO WILL NOT BE INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW. BROADNESS OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIP RIGHT NOW. WARMING TREND STARTS LATE DAY 4 IMPACTING EXTREME WESTERN CWA AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY PART OF DAY 6 BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IMPACTS CWA FOR REMAINDER OF DAY 6 AND ALL OF DAY 7. ONCE SURFACE COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH CWA ON WEDNESDAY...MAJOR CAA SEQUENCE TO INITIATE ACROSS CWA WITH 850HPA TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM +8C ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO -20C BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. POTENTIAL WITH THIS SITUATION IS ALWAYS THERE FOR THE RINGING OUT OF A LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL FURTHER REFINEMENT CAN MAKE FOR A MORE CERTAIN FORECAST. LASTLY...WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH IF NOT EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA DAY 6 AND DAY 7 WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WORK INTO CWA ON STRONG NORTH WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. .ABR...NONE. KEEFE/DORN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN 330 PM CST THU JAN 2 2003 FORECAST FOCUS ON ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EAST TONIGHT AND PATH OF FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...GFS/ETA/NGM/RUC PROGS TAKE EAST COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY AWAY FROM CWA WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. EASTERN PARTS OF CWA REMAIN IN STORM/S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MILWAUKEE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING DECENT INVERSION BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THICK DRY AIRMASS ABOVE INVERSION LAYER AND MINIMAL DELTA T/S ONLY YIELD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST. GFS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS COOLS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -12 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT MORE SNOWFALL. WILL ONLY BRING CLEARING TO WESTERN PARTS OF CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF THE DIRTY VARIETY. IN THE FAR TERM...PROGS SLIDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. BUT GFS AND ETA THEN PART COMPANY WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPEED WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN GFS. THE ETA SOLUTION WOULD SQUEEZE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS CWA SATURDAY. THE SLOWER GFS WOULD PLACE BULK OF SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE ISENTROP IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE NOT ONLY FINAL TRACK BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE CONFIDENCE CLIMBS HIGHER. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BROAD BRUSH SOLUTION WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA. IN THE FAR FAR TERM...SWIFT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO DOMINATE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. .MKX...NONE. $$ ZAJDEL wi