QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 051831
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 130 PM EST THU FEB 05 2009
  
  
 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 DAY 1...
 
 ...WRN U.S...
 
 THE MEAN TROF WL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST DAY 1...WITH THE
 EMPHASIS FOR A CLOSED LOW IN THE MEAN OFF THE SRN CA COAST. 
 OVERALL..MODEL SOLNS DAY 1 ARE IN GOOD AGRMNT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
 THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW OFF THE CNTRL TO SRN CA COAST BEING KICKED
 INLAND BY ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DIVING SWD OFF THE CA COAST AND INTO
 THE MEAN CLOSED LOW PSN.  THE INITIAL INLAND MOVG CLOSED LOW AND
 THE REFORMATION OF THE CLOSED LOW TONIGHT INTO FRI WL KEEP
 SUSTAINED SLY TO SWLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO A LARGE PORTION OF CA. 
 THIS WL SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
 REGIONS FROM FAR SWRN OR/NWRN CA...SWD ALONG THE COAST RANGE OF
 CNTRL TO SRN CA...ACRS THE TRANSVERSE RANGE AND  INTO THE SRN
 SIERRA.  FOR QPF DETAILS..THE 12 KM NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE
 FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY.
 
 LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RH WL INCREASE ACRS THE GTBASIN WITH THE
 INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST.  PCPN
 AMTS WL BE LIGHTER THAN UPSTREAM ALONG THE CA COAST GIVEN LOWER PW
 VALUES AND THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE CLOSED LOW.  MODELS ARE
 SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD WITH QPF TO THE EAST OF THE SRN SIERRA
 INTO FAR ERN CA AND SRN NV.  A FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS SHOW
 .25-.50"+ AMTS HERE...WHILE OTHERS HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS IN THE
 .10"+RANGE.  ATTM...WE TRENDED AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER TOTALS AS
 THEY SEEMED OVERDONE...DEPICTING AMTS CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL
 ECMWF.  
 
 WHILE THE CRUX OF THE NERN PAC HT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE SWD
 OFF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE MEAN CLOSED LOW PSN OFF THE SRN CA
 COAST...SOME HT FALLS WL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AND TOWARD THE NRN
 ROCKIES FRI. THIS WL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MDT PCPN AMTS IN THE
 .10-.25"+ RANGE ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
 
 COASTAL SE FL...
 
 THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE ELY DIRECTION
 ACRS S FL AS THE SFC HIGH OVR THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OFFSHORE.  THIS
 SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
 FRI OVR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE FL.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE
 FROM THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF CONSENSUS OF AREAL AVG LIGHT PCPN
 AMTS IN THESE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITH ELY FLOW RAINBANDS. 
 
 ORAVEC
 
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  
 24HR QP VT 07/00Z
  0.01 529204 529187 532173 528164 525162 525159 520154 512147 
       506142 502139 484128 478127 471127 467138 450143 446140 
       443135 443130 443125 449121 452118 461114 463110 463106 
       460100 455099 451096 442091 437090 434090 433088 429084 
       425083 421087 424093 424100 419102 416104 415099 412093 
       408089 404087 404086 408082 412079 415076 417071 413059 
       410056 404054 398055 394058 384062 378064 373061 369060 
       365062 364066 365069 368073 373080 378090 385097 389101 
       386109 377112 367116 361122 354128 352131 350136 352141 
       355142 363142 366147 367150 357153 351154 348159 347163 
       341161 330159 320161 311166 308170 312175 315183 319191 
       327209 336225 346240 349243 355246 361249 366252 378258 
       389261 399265 411267 417270 423272 432273 439273 443273 
       455269 465270 468269 474271 485274 490278 496280 500279 
       505275 513267 516259 516249 513237 510226 512222 515218 
       522211 529204 
  0.01 474840 474835 472830 469820 463809 458805 453801 451801 
       447802 441807 437811 435814 435819 442833 451838 455840 
       450847 439853 436859 436861 438863 439864 446863 452859 
       463852 470847 474843 474840 
  0.01 487197 488192 487191 486187 485187 482185 481182 480181 
       477180 476181 476185 475189 474193 473197 472200 471201 
       469205 471206 473206 474206 477204 480204 483201 485201 
       487198 487197 
  0.01 448765 448760 447756 444754 441754 438756 437758 436759 
       435763 436767 437771 438775 441777 442777 445777 446775 
       446773 447770 448766 448765 
  0.01 433204 434200 434197 434193 432189 430187 427183 430177 
       433173 434169 434163 431152 431144 430139 427139 424143 
       423149 421154 415156 411156 406157 400157 394156 390157 
       389163 386168 381174 378177 378181 380185 384189 387193 
       390194 395197 398200 406207 408210 414212 418216 418224 
       417228 420226 425216 433204 
  0.01 275802 274798 271794 267792 259794 251797 245801 243808 
       243815 244819 248818 249815 253811 260807 267805 274803 
       275802 
  0.25 478216 476214 473214 471214 472218 475218 478216 
  0.25 461220 457217 451215 442216 437216 433218 428221 427225 
       427231 422233 414231 413227 414219 412217 409216 402216 
       398217 396214 394208 391204 386196 376188 373185 369183 
       366181 360180 357183 357186 359191 361197 360200 356202 
       354201 351197 348186 348180 346175 344168 341165 330164 
       325164 321166 319169 319172 321178 330193 339212 346220 
       351226 359232 369239 377244 388249 396253 407256 418256 
       428256 436254 446250 450248 454243 454239 452236 451233 
       452229 455226 460223 461220 
  0.25 443109 435104 432104 424107 424112 421115 419116 414115 
       409111 405111 400113 406119 414119 418120 421123 423127 
       429122 434116 440112 443109 
  0.50 449221 448220 445219 443219 442220 439221 436221 436222 
       434225 435228 438228 440227 442225 445225 446224 448222 
       449221 
  0.50 440243 442240 440237 434237 425237 413235 408232 405233 
       393231 389232 384233 384236 386241 394247 399249 405251 
       416252 425251 433249 437247 440243 
  0.50 384204 385200 384197 381194 373187 368183 362183 359185 
       362190 366193 369198 370203 367208 357205 352202 349197 
       347188 346175 344169 341166 328165 325169 324171 329180 
       338199 343207 350214 358223 362225 368228 372227 375223 
       376215 379210 384204 
  1.00 426243 424241 421240 418239 416239 415239 415241 418243 
       421243 424244 426243 
  1.00 378196 378195 376194 375191 373190 371188 369186 368186 
       365185 365187 365189 367191 370192 373194 374195 375195 
       378196 378196 
  1.00 364218 364217 361214 361213 359212 356211 355212 356213 
       357216 358217 360218 363218 364218 
  1.00 349204 348200 347194 346189 345185 344178 344173 341168 
       337170 338176 338181 339185 341191 342195 343199 345204 
       348205 349204