FXUS04 KWBC 022304 PAA QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 603 PM EST SUN FEB 02 2003 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...18Z UPDATE..THE ETA AND GFS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGRMT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS ACRS THE LOWER 48..SO LITTLE CHG WAS MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF... DAY 1.... ...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE PLNS AND GTLKS... MDLS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT THRU THIS REGION AFTR SVRL DAYS OF STG DISAGREEMENT. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLNS DISCUSSED YDA SEEMS TO BE STILL THE FAVORED SOLN. THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO HANG ONTO A MORE SRN STREAM SFC LOW...BUT CATCHES UP TO THE OTHER MDLS BY 36 HRS. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS SYS IS GOING TO BE THE LACK OF MSTR FEEDING NWD FM THE GULF. SFC RDGG ACRS THE GULF WL GIVE UP SLOWLY AND KEEP THINGS RATHER DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PD. SO...MUCH OF THE PCPN WL OCCUR N OF THE SFC BNDRY AND INVOF THE 8H/7H BNDRYS. NR THE END OF THE PD WE COULD SEE A THIN BAND OF HIER MSTR FEEDING NWD AHD OF THE SYS INTO THE GTLKS. THE STG MLVL VORT OVR THE GT BASIN WL SWING THRU THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS EVE/ERLY TNGT WITH HVY SNOWS IN THE HIER TERRAIN. A BAND OF LGT/MOD PCPN WL XTND ENEWD FM THE CNTRL ROCKIES ACRS THE PLNS INTO THE GTLKS. THE GTLKS REGION WL SEE MOD LLVL THERMAL FORCING DVLP ON MON THAT SHLD COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LLVL MSTR...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE HVIER ETA IN THIS AREA. PLENTY OF WARM AIR WL STREAM NWD AND KEEP A LOT OF THE PCPN MIXED THRU THE PLNS INTO THE GTLKS. SNOWS WL LIKELY FALL ALG THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. ...LWR MS VLY... SUB-TRPCL ENERGY LIFTING NEWD INTO MEX THIS AFTN WL BRING SOME WEAK LIFT ACRS THE REGION LATE TNGT/MON. MSTR IS NOT DEEP...SO ONLY SCTS SHWRS ARE XPCD. ...NEW ENG... THE POWERFUL NOREASTER LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO WRAP DEEP MSTR ARND THE SYS AND INTO ME THRU ERLY TNGT. MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY STG AGREEMENT...BUT THE ETA SEEMS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THIS AREA..WHICH SHUD HELP LWR PCPN AMTS. MOST OF THE PCPN WL BE SNOW. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS. DAY 2... IN THE EAST... THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ETA WITH THE SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SWINGING NEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THE FASTER ETA... SO HAVE BASICALLY GONE ALONG WITH THE ETA PCPN PATTERN. WIDESPREAD MDT TO LOCALLY HVY AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE APPALACHIANS... IN THE WARM ADVECTION AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN NEW ENGLAND... AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW IN SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW... LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP IN U.P. MI... AND IN PORTIONS OF NR AND WRN L.P. MI. UPDATE... THE 18Z ETA SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM 12Z... BUT THE 18Z GFS IS TRENDING FASTER THAN EARLIER. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE SOLUTION ABOVE... FAVORING THE FASTER ETA. SO ONLY VER MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE EAST IN THE DAY2 QPF. IN THE WEST... THE MODELS ARE A LOT CLOSER THAN YDA WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THE ETA IS STILL SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE GFS WITH THE VORT MAX. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ETA PCPN... WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHT AMOUNTS IN MUCH OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. UPDATE... THE LATEST 18Z ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA. THEREFORE... LIKE THE MODELS... HAVE EDGED THE LIGHT PCPN WESTWARD IN THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. DAY3... IN NRN NEW ENGLAND... MODELS AGREE THAT ONLY LIGHT PCPN LINGERS IN NRN PORTIONS AS SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CANADA. IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION... VERY COLD NWRLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PCPN AMOUNTS. BEST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE LEE OF LAKES ONTARIO AND SUPERIOR. IN THE WEST... A WEAK IMPULSE AND THE FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX WILL HELP TO BRING MORE LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE... THE DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS STRONGER IN THE ETA THAN IN THE GFS... AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN IN THAT RESPECT. ECKERT/WOLF/LINDNER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov 24HR QP VT 04/00Z 0.01 515664 510652 505644 502639 500635 491630 481627 467626 461625 454625 442625 436626 427629 419640 415648 414657 414663 414671 414681 415689 416693 419697 424700 428701 433703 436707 437714 436732 435739 433743 431746 424753 422757 422763 422766 421772 416778 413786 410796 407800 400806 395813 391819 389826 385833 379836 372837 363840 357845 346857 331875 327881 324888 320899 307923 302937 299944 296949 292955 289959 283964 275969 270972 266977 262983 262989 265993 270991 282982 284981 288979 291980 296980 302978 308974 313971 318966 323962 326958 330948 334937 342925 347919 354915 362912 368911 382913 387911 390908 395903 407891 415886 418888 417893 414901 411906 394931 387944 378961 374973 370988 368994 367005 366020 364038 362044 358048 356052 356057 357063 355068 354071 354076 358076 361073 363072 365074 367076 370083 373093 375097 376099 379100 385097 388097 389100 392105 389106 384105 379106 378110 377115 372119 367118 362120 365125 370129 373131 377131 384128 394124 399125 405127 408121 413122 420120 428123 435117 440117 446122 451122 454125 453129 449134 447137 446142 440145 438148 439151 443158 445163 446167 448173 448178 447180 443181 441186 444191 447190 451192 452193 455190 459186 462182 463178 455173 454170 455166 457163 462164 463165 465170 466173 468174 473173 478172 483177 493185 494189 494194 493198 491198 486198 483200 477203 464212 458216 457219 458222 462224 466222 471221 478221 483223 487228 485231 483233 479231 474231 472236 473241 476245 486257 495272 500279 502282 506284 508282 508278 506268 506263 509264 515267 517263 518256 517250 516244 511231 504215 503211 505207 507205 512205 515206 520210 523211 525209 527206 529204 529200 526191 523183 519176 515171 510165 502160 499159 503157 505155 508152 507149 505145 499140 485126 480124 476122 474119 477110 478107 477103 476099 474093 471090 467089 462097 459098 456096 453092 449092 443093 438092 435096 427091 430104 423105 420106 417110 412111 411107 410100 408092 406087 410082 417077 422074 426069 428062 429056 433054 441052 444051 446046 446039 444032 443021 452986 457969 459961 459956 460952 462948 467946 472946 473950 473955 475957 481959 486960 491960 496959 500957 506952 511946 516940 519934 516926 519920 522914 520905 514902 510901 506903 497908 491914 487919 482924 475923 471917 472913 475908 478906 483903 489897 492893 494888 495879 494872 492865 476823 473814 468801 461781 456773 454770 448766 443765 441760 442755 444748 446742 451733 461720 465717 470716 477715 484715 490712 496706 502703 508702 512700 518695 519693 520688 519683 516674 515664 0.25 497670 495662 492655 486649 479642 474640 465638 459638 450640 443642 435646 432648 431652 430657 431662 433668 436673 447682 460706 467702 474700 484696 491691 493689 497683 498674 497670 0.25 467870 466859 464848 463838 460829 457821 452816 444810 438809 435812 431826 420834 417839 417848 423863 427872 430880 432916 439943 437951 437960 440963 444959 448953 450947 454934 457919 461904 465891 467884 467874 467870 0.25 472158 470154 470154 468152 465151 463152 464155 465157 467159 470161 472158 0.25 414010 414998 411991 409980 408977 405975 399978 394984 392991 390001 387017 384035 384041 386046 389050 390054 388058 387060 389063 391064 394066 399066 406064 410060 410049 413030 414010 0.50 489667 486663 482659 478656 475654 467651 458651 449654 444660 445666 452674 456676 460682 463689 465692 469694 475693 483688 485684 488678 490671 489667 0.50 458869 458863 457858 454851 446844 442841 439847 437861 438871 438877 440897 441907 444916 446924 449928 453914 454907 456900 458885 458869 1.00 479676 478672 476668 475668 472667 471667 469669 468670 469674 471678 473680 473680 477680 479677 479676 24HR QP VT 05/00Z 0.01 499625 495615 491608 489603 486600 483596 479591 474596 468604 465609 463610 459606 454602 451600 447599 444598 441599 428611 417623 414628 412634 412640 406645 402650 401656 402664 400668 397670 384677 371688 350709 342717 334726 320744 307763 304769 298774 291785 279803 274812 270822 261842 249865 248870 248874 249880 252884 255884 258882 261881 263883 265891 268897 275905 280907 286908 298902 302900 303904 301916 302929 303936 307938 311938 315936 329928 339920 348913 358905 374890 388885 395883 398884 401888 402892 403902 405909 410914 423919 431920 437922 447921 461918 468916 476911 486904 504882 517868 521863 525860 528857 532851 536848 537844 540841 543835 542831 543824 546821 547811 543810 540809 537811 530815 525818 521819 518818 519816 522811 530799 534792 533786 531784 525783 521779 520775 520771 521766 524758 525751 526742 527733 528723 528712 526700 524693 521687 517678 513672 508665 504658 490640 497634 499625 0.01 535225 537210 537195 537181 536169 532142 532133 529126 522118 510105 496095 483083 475077 472075 465073 458070 453064 442051 436045 431047 428049 422049 418047 412047 409049 394056 388062 384069 384076 389083 396087 401085 405083 398128 405132 404141 403144 404149 409156 411160 412164 416176 420184 423186 427187 429183 432179 433173 433166 427148 427135 428130 431124 435121 438124 438128 437131 434136 432139 432145 431150 431156 442170 443175 442182 441186 441190 443196 447195 455192 460185 463173 466172 469170 472167 475161 474152 474147 476144 482145 487147 500151 504154 505159 501159 496159 493163 491169 492175 498183 503193 505196 508197 514199 516202 518210 535225 0.25 485665 482658 480654 476652 472651 456647 448647 442650 438652 432655 426659 420664 415669 406678 396683 386690 376696 367704 359712 343730 332744 327753 323759 320767 322770 328770 335766 341761 347759 353757 355760 355763 358775 360781 364784 371778 380769 382770 384774 383780 378790 373797 361812 350826 338842 334850 332856 332860 333864 340868 341869 341873 338882 334891 336893 340890 347882 362867 373854 387840 391837 397833 409831 419829 429831 432833 435839 435845 431849 425856 423861 424862 429864 435864 443868 457883 464891 467892 471891 477883 480873 483860 487847 490832 491818 496768 497738 497710 497703 496697 491686 487673 485665 0.25 298839 297835 294832 286834 284833 284828 283821 281821 278823 276829 274835 273842 274846 273850 272855 272858 275858 283855 288852 292847 297842 298839 0.50 478711 477703 475697 473691 469686 464682 461682 451681 436678 374704 362717 351731 345739 348741 350740 370727 379722 385722 386726 384731 380738 376746 375752 375757 377761 381758 384757 388757 391758 398761 400765 403766 407767 411768 415771 413778 408783 400788 391791 384795 371809 366815 362821 354837 350858 352864 353865 359860 370847 378832 384823 391815 395812 400811 407811 413814 421814 430814 435814 439815 443817 446821 449830 449838 449849 450855 453860 458867 464875 469878 471873 471865 473854 475840 481822 484799 484784 485775 485762 483746 481739 480729 479718 478711 24HR QP VT 06/00Z 0.01 370659 364665 359670 358673 345687 336700 328712 318724 311734 303747 296758 269808 265821 262834 262839 264842 268843 271841 275836 277830 283815 291802 299789 307780 317768 322763 327758 332753 335748 342743 344740 346738 351734 354730 362724 367718 376712 392699 400694 406689 414683 419681 421682 424682 428686 432693 443706 442710 440715 436721 429729 427734 425738 422747 420756 419761 420767 419771 415774 407779 399782 392786 385791 382793 379797 374804 364816 360820 360823 362828 366829 369830 375829 387817 395813 399812 402814 407820 411824 415823 419819 423813 427814 428816 433824 439826 445832 446837 446841 444845 441847 432850 424849 420850 415852 410854 408857 407860 409863 415869 420872 426873 430874 434873 441873 446871 451869 456869 458871 460879 461887 460893 462899 463902 467904 472902 475898 478893 479887 480881 479874 477867 474861 472852 467843 461838 456831 456825 456821 457812 460805 464799 472795 480794 487793 496791 503787 509784 514783 522784 525784 530782 538776 540766 537743 536735 535729 531715 524690 518672 510647 504633 501629 500625 497622 486598 480587 477582 473579 468578 464577 461577 455579 448587 432605 428611 423616 409629 397638 392642 389643 0.01 522125 522120 520115 516109 506099 501094 494091 489089 485084 476071 475065 476062 481058 486053 491047 494041 494032 493027 490024 488022 484024 480023 478015 475013 471014 467017 463015 460009 458996 456984 452981 446982 440986 436992 434998 434008 435021 435029 433035 434041 436047 441053 443055 441059 438063 435068 434074 435080 439084 436089 431089 428088 424087 424091 424096 422098 418102 404094 403098 402103 399105 389110 384114 384119 385120 390123 394123 401125 405129 412130 434120 438121 444126 446129 445133 442136 443143 447149 450154 454155 467149 473146 479146 483148 487149 489148 500141 514133 520129 522125 0.01 476924 476919 475915 471914 468913 462914 454919 449923 44