FXAK69 PAFG 281313
AFDAFG

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT MON JUL 28 2003

CURRENT MID RANGE MODELS ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PRESENTLY DEEPENING OVER
THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA. THEY ALL (MRF/SEF/ECMF) HAVE THE THING
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR 75N/165W AT 4AM TUE WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE UPPER 70S. THEY DIVERGE A BIT THEREAFTER
BUT BY 4AM WED WE EXPECT THE THING TO BE NEAR 77N/135W AND ABOUT
THE SAME PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAS
THE THING PASSING FARTHER NORTH OF OUR ARCTIC COAST THAN SUNDAY'S
SOLUTION DID. THOUGH THIS DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO MAKE LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THE PROGS INDICATE...AS
A PRACTICAL MATTER THE SEVERITY (OR RISK) OF COASTAL FLOODING IS
BE REDUCED. WE REMAIN HAPPY WITH OUR WATCHES FOR ZONES 201 AND 202
WE WILL UPGRADE THE COASTAL FLOOD FOR 207 TO A WARNING...AS MASS
TRANSPORT THERE IS MORE CLEARLY FAVORABLE. WE HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
UP THE WINDS IN ZONES 203 AND 204 (BARELY) TO THE WARNING LEVEL.

AT THE OTHER END OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
CONTINUES AT THIS TIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ZONE 222 
(INCLUDING FAIRBANKS)...223 WEST OF PABI...AND 225. WESTERN
(BASICALLY UNINHABITED) AREAS OF ZONE 224 ALSO APPEAR TO BE 
INVOLVED.  HOWEVER...THE AREA OF CONTINUOUS RAINFALL HAS RECENTLY
APPEARED TO BE DIMINISHING BOTH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND 
WILL LOSE SUPPORT MORE RAPIDLY TODAY. FAIRLY STEADY RAIN MAY
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT PAEI FOR EXAMPLE...OR MAYBE SALCHA...
BUT (OVER OUR TURF AT LEAST) WE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 1/4 INCH
ANYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE ZONE 225.  WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
FLOODING RESULTING FROM ALL THIS RAIN...OF COURSE. FAIRBANK'S 2.27
INCH RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SET A RECORD FOR THE MONTH...AND CAME
IN JUST SECOND PLACE TO AUGUST 12 1967. "FLASH" FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE NO LONGER APPROPRIATE THOUGH. THE OTHER HYDRO WARNINGS
WILL BE CONTINUED.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR CHATANIKA...CHENA AND 
            SALCHA RIVERS IN ZONES 222 AND 224.
         HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 201 AND 202
         COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ZONES 201...202.
         COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ZONE 207 NORTH OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN
MARINE...SCA AREA 14 ENDING TODAY...DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT.
         SCA DEVELOPING TODAY AND GALE TONIGHT AREA 10B.
         SCA WESTERN AREA 9B TONIGHT.
         SCA TODAY AND STORM TONIGHT AREA 11A.
         BWA AREA 11B.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE. 

$$
DJH JUL 03