Energy Consumption by Sector

Total primary energy consumption in the AEO2008 reference case grows by 19 percent between 2006 and 2030 (an average rate of 0.7 percent per year), from 99.5 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 118.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030—13.2 quadrillion Btu less than in the AEO2007 reference case. In 2030, the levels of consumption projected for liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal are lower in the AEO2008 reference case than they were in the AEO2007 reference case. Among the most important factors leading to lower total energy demand in the AEO2008 reference case are lower economic growth, greater use of more efficient appliances and vehicles, higher energy prices, and slower growth in energy-intensive industries.

figure data

Residential delivered energy consumption in the AEO2008 reference case grows from 10.8 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 12.9 quadrillion Btu in 2030, or by 0.7 percent per year (Figure 2). Higher delivered energy prices, slower growth in the housing stock, increases in lighting efficiency to meet the standards estab-lished in EISA2007, and a revised accounting of heating and cooling degree-days to better reflect recent temperature trends contribute to the lower level of residential energy use in the AEO2008 projection, which is 0.9 quadrillion Btu lower than the AEO2007 projection.

Higher delivered energy prices and slower growth in commercial square footage lead to slower growth in commercial energy consumption in the AEO2008 reference case than in the AEO2007 reference case. Delivered commercial energy consumption grows from 8.3 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 11.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030, over 1 quadrillion Btu less than in the AEO2007 reference case.

Since 1997, delivered energy consumption in the U.S. industrial sector has trended downward, falling from about 27 quadrillion Btu in 1997 to 25 quadrillion Btu in 2006, despite rising output. A number of factors have worked to reduce industrial energy consumption since 1997: economic weakness between 2000 and 2003, the hurricanes of 2005 that reduced activity in some industrial subsectors, and rising energy prices.

Industrial delivered energy consumption increases to 27.7 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Although the AEO2008 reference case includes steady economic growth and declining energy prices in the near term, growth in the energy-intensive industries continues to be weak, reflecting increased competition from foreign regions with lower relative energy prices. Growth in the energy-intensive U.S. manufacturing industries averages 0.7 percent per year from 2006 to 2030, slower than the 1.3-percent average growth in AEO2007.

Delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector grows to 33.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030 in the AEO2008 reference case, 6.3 quadrillion Btu less than in AEO2007. The lower projected level of consumption predominantly reflects the influence of the new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) specified in EISA2007 and slower economic growth, as well as the impact of higher fuel prices.

EISA2007 requires new LDVs, including both cars and trucks, to reach a combined average fuel economy of 35 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2020, based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) test value used to measure compliance with the CAFE standard. The EPA CAFE test value generally differs from the estimated mpg value on the fuel economy label and, typically, exceeds the actual on-the-road fuel economy of a new vehicle by a significant margin. Despite these differences, the higher fuel economy standards in EISA2007 significantly improve the in-use fuel economy of the LDV stock. In the reference case, the average in-use fuel economy for the stock of LDVs in 2030 increases to 27.9 miles per gallon, almost 40 percent above its 2006 level. To attain these fuel economy levels, the projection reflects increases in the sale of unconventional vehicle technologies [4], such as flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles, and a slowdown in the growth of new light truck sales.

Notes and Sources