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Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Henslow's Sparrow

Thogmartin, W. E., M. G. Knutson, and J. R. Sauer. 2006. Predicting regional abundance of rare grassland birds with a hierarchical spatial count model. Condor 108:25-46.

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
Avian Species-of-Concern in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition Ecoregion (Bird Conservation Region 23)

Henslow's Sparrow
Ammodramus henslowii

 

 Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii)

Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii)

 Henslow's Sparrow Predicted Relative Abundance Map


Predicted Henslow's Sparrow Predicted Abuundance (map - click for larger scale)
Henslow's Sparrow

Henslow's Sparrow
AOU Code HESP
Habitat Association grassland
Nest Type and Location open-cup, ground/low
Migration Status Short distance
Conservation Score 30

Henslow's Sparrow Predicted Relative Abundance Map
This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count of any cell in the map represents the expected count if a Breeding Bird Survey route were centered on that cell.

Henslow's Sparrow Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Note: This map is derived from extremely sparse data and therefore potentially unstable when confronted with new data.

 
 

Henslow's Sparrow Averaged Habitat Model

Explanatory Variable Scale (m) Median 95% LCL 95% UCL Variable Importance
Area-weighted Grass Patch Size (m)
1,000
0.701
0.691
0.711
1
Total Forest Composition (%)
1,000
0.125
0.111
0.138
1
Mean Temperature During the Dryest Season
 
-1.134
-1.176
-1.092
0.930
Total Warm Season Precipitation
 
0.253
0.230
0.277
0.930
Coefficient of Variation in Annua Precipitation
 
-1.387
-1.436
-1.338
0.930
Modified Simpson's Diversity Index
100
0.225
0.212
0.238
0.930
Interaction of Forest Composition and Grass Patch Size
1,000
0.548
0.535
0.561
1
Spatial CAR
 
-5.389
-5.415
-5.364
1

K-L Best Subset Models

Model Explanatory Variable Scale Parameters DIC ΔDIC wi Evidence Ratios
1
 Grass Patch Size1,000, Forest 1,000, Temperature During Dryest Season, Warm Season Precipitation, CV Annual Precipitation, Simpson's Diversity, Grass-Forest Interaction
149.064
729.839
0
0.926
1
2
 Grass Patch Size1,000, Forest 1,000, Grass-Forest Interaction
147.865
735.002
5.16
0.070
13.22
Null
  
188.06
762.608
32.77
0
13052627.34
Parameters: Effective number of parameters
DIC: Deviance Information Criterion
ΔDIC: Difference in deviance between model and best model
wi: Model weight
Evidence Ratio: Ratio of model i relative to the best model
 

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend Graph

Henslow's Sparrow Population Trend Graph


* Partners-in-Flight Conservation score for PIF16
(171 KB .pdf file - requires Acrobat Reader)  

Scores range between 5 and 35, with higher scores signifying greater conservation concern. Each species is of management concern because of their rarity, declining abundance, or habitat specificity (http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pl_16sum.htm).

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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Page Last Modified: October 2, 2007

March 21, 2007