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Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Grasshopper Sparrow

Thogmartin, W. E., M. G. Knutson, and J. R. Sauer. 2006. Predicting regional abundance of rare grassland birds with a hierarchical spatial count model. Condor 108:25-46.

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
Avian Species-of-Concern in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition Ecoregion (Bird Conservation Region 23)

Grasshopper Sparrow
Ammodramus savannarum

 

 Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum)

Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum)

 Grasshopper Sparrow Predicted Relative Abundance Map


Grasshopper Sparrow Predicted Relative Abundance Map(map - click for larger scale)

Grasshopper sparrow
Grasshopper sparrow Photo by Mike McDowell

Grasshopper sparrow
AOU Code GRSP
Habitat Association grassland
Nest Type and Location open-cup, ground
Migration Status Neotropical
Conservation Score 19

Grasshopper Sparrow Predicted Relative Abundance Map
This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count of any cell in the map represents the expected count if a Breeding Bird Survey route were centered on that cell.

Grasshopper Sparrow Predicted Relative Abundance Map

 

Grasshopper Sparrow Best Habitat Model

Explanatory Variable
Scale (m)
Median
95% LCL
95% UCL
Variable Importance
Total Forest Composition (%)
100
-1.159
-1.182
-1.136
1
Static Wetness Index
100
-1.046
-1.063
-1.029
1
Temperature During the Warmest Quarter
 
2.869
2.822
2.916
1
Range in Growing Season Temperature
 
-1.236
-1.267
-1.205
1
Mean Summer Precipitation
 
-1.825
-1.854
-1.796
1
Variation in Summer Precipitation
 
-1.177
-1.198
-1.156
1
Mean Autumn Precipitation
 
1.269
1.245
1.293
1
Var in Autumn in Precipitation
 
1.544
1.511
1.577
1
Intercept
 
-4.251
-4.272
-4.230
1

K-L Best Subset Models

Model Explanatory Variable Scale Parameters DIC ΔDIC wi Evidence Ratios
1
 Forest100, Wetness100, Temperature During the Warmest Quarter, Range in Growing Season Temperature, Mean and Variation in Summer Precipitation, Mean and Variation in Autumn Precipitation
320.603
2024.16
0
0.930
1
2
 Grass100, Forest100, Temperature During the Warmest Quarter, Wetness100, Mean Autumn Precipitation
324.816
2029.35
5.19
0.069
13.40
Null
  
328.32
2037.78
13.62
0.001
906.87
Parameters: Effective number of parameters
DIC: Deviance Information Criterion
ΔDIC: Difference in deviance between model and best model
wi: Model weight
Evidence Ratio: Ratio of model i relative to the best model
 

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend Graph

Grasshopper Sparrow Population Trend Graph


* Partners-in-Flight Conservation score for PIF16
(171 KB .pdf file - requires Acrobat Reader)  

Scores range between 5 and 35, with higher scores signifying greater conservation concern. Each species is of management concern because of their rarity, declining abundance, or habitat specificity (http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pl_16sum.htm).

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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Page Last Modified: October 2, 2007

March 21, 2007