000
FXUS04 KWBC 041831
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
130 PM EST WED FEB 04 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACRS THE U.S. WL
BEGIN DAY 1 WITH MID TO UPR HTS RISING OVR THE EAST AND LOWERING
ACRS THE WEST COAST.  OVERALL..THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGRMNT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN DURG DAY 1.

WEST COAST...

THE EMPHASIS FOR PCPN ACRS THE NATION WL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST
COAST ACRS MOST OF CA DAY 1 AS THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS
TO PROGRESS EWD.  THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ADDITIONAL NERN PAC HT FALLS DIVING INTO THE MEAN TROF OFF THE CA
COAST...RESULTING IN THE LEAD CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND PUSHING
INLAND.  STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW..INCREASING PWS AND A
FAVORABLE BROADLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOC WITH THESE HT
FALLS WL SUPPORT INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACRS LARGE
SECTIONS OF CA.  DIFFS IN MODEL QPFS ARE RELATIVELY MINOR..WITH
MODELS DEPICTING A MAX FROM THE TRANSVERSE RANGE OF SRN CA...NWWD
ALONG THE COAST RANGE INTO CNTRL CA.  A FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS
AND THE GFSP WERE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER EWD PUSH OF PCPN INTO
SRN CA.  THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.  DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
SOLN TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

ERN U.S...

THE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. TROF WL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS PERIOD.  ONLY SOME LIGHT PCPN AMTS EXPECTED ACRS THE NERN
U.S. AS THIS TROF LIFTS OUT.  A WEAK SHRTWV MOVG EWD ACRS THE MID
ATL TONIGHT WL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL INVOF THE
DELMARVA.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF THE LAKES AND
INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END DURG THU AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPREAD EWD ACRS THE LAKES.  WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ERN SFC HIGH WL SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWS MOVG INTO THE UPR LAKES DURG THE DAY
THU.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 452716 450714 449714 446712 445711 442711 439713 439717
      441720 443723 442728 445730 446730 449730 451727 451726
      452721 452716
 0.01 474831 472822 470817 467812 463809 458809 455814 454823
      457835 455842 453850 454855 456857 462861 467861 470856
      474849 475846 475840 474831
 0.01 478239 474235 468234 462231 456230 455231 452231 450229
      453226 459228 470224 472215 470213 467212 457211 454208
      452201 447196 441194 435206 429204 425202 420200 418202
      419211 416212 412207 406207 390193 385189 381186 376184
      372180 365178 359178 354180 351179 346168 342166 336164
      330163 324163 321167 319174 320187 322198 325208 329217
      332222 335225 343233 352237 365243 386253 393255 400256
      410257 416256 419253 428249 439249 444248 448246 456244
      467244 470244 475242 478239
 0.01 421698 419695 416694 414694 412694 410697 410698 411701
      412702 415703 416703 419703 421701 421698
 0.01 452824 451820 450818 449817 446814 445813 443811 442811
      438810 436810 435810 434811 434815 436819 438821 439822
      442824 445826 448826 449826 451825 452824
 0.01 435764 433760 429758 426757 423759 422764 422771 423778
      421789 419794 417799 415802 413808 413813 414817 416819
      422809 424800 429789 433781 435776 435768 435764
 0.01 407792 405789 402789 393792 385798 379802 373807 368811
      364816 361820 362823 369823 377821 382816 389811 394806
      402801 406794 407792
 0.01 398768 393763 389761 384754 376748 368746 360746 356747
      351750 350755 354757 361761 369765 377770 384774 388775
      393773 398768
 0.25 404240 402235 398232 391226 385221 378216 369203 363202
      359200 352197 350193 348189 345182 344175 343174 337178
      335183 334188 333194 334200 338207 342212 346220 349223
      353226 367233 376238 386241 396242 399242 404240
 0.25 386201 384197 380194 371188 365185 362184 361185 361188
      362189 364192 366193 367194 370195 373195 375195 378197
      381200 383202 386201
 0.50 382233 384229 381227 374224 372220 367216 361213 358209
      354205 351200 345189 342188 338193 338197 340203 349211
      355219 360224 365227 377232 382233

"$$