AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 436 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000 LATE WITH DISSCUSSION THIS PM DUE TO ICWF DIFFICULTIES. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB TO THIS POINT ON MVG STACKED STORM OUT INTO WRN PLNS. RUC INDICATED THAT CWA UNDER AREA OF MSTR FLUX DVRGNC MOST OF TDY WHICH SERVED AS A "CURTAIN" IN KEEPING PCPN TO SW OF FCST AREA. 88-D RETURNS AND SFC REPORTS INDICATE A FEW SPRINKLES STARTING TO DVLP OVR WRN ZNS. ONCE MSTR CNVGNC DROPS TO ABT 750-800 HPA 20+ DBZ RETURNS DVLP SO BASED ON ETA CROS SECT DATA WENT WITH CATEGORICAL PCPN IN SW TNGT...LIKELY SE AND CHC POPS N OF RVR WHERE FCST MSTR FLUX CNVGNC BEGINS TO WEAKEN. CROS SECT THETA ANLYS ALSO SUGGEST UPRIGHT COVECTIVE POT OVR SRN CWA UNTIL ABT 0600 UTC. BASED ON THIS POT AND CNVTN DVLPG ACR NE OK ON RIGHT ENTR OF UPR JET INSERTED PSBL THNDR S OF MO RVR. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTANT WITH TIME IN SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY FTHR TRACK TO S. BASED ON AMT OF WAA THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE AND THE FACT THAT BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MOST LIKELY REMAINING TO S OF FCST AREA DECIDED TO ABANDON THE IDEA OF -RASN LATE TNGT/FRI AM SINCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTANTIAL MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR TEMPS TNGT PRETTY MUCH HELD THE LINE WITH MID 30S...LO 30S NE. LIKED FWC NUMBERS IN BRINGING WRMR MAX TEMPS ON FRI FM NW. STILL WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH WRM UP DUE TO XPTD DURATION OF SC AND WENT A CAT UNDR GUIDANCE IN ALL GROUPS XPCT FOR NW MO WHERE SOME LATE DAY CLRG WAS INTRODUCED AS ETA/NGM FCST AXIS OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FROTOGENESIS TO PUSH THRU. FOR WKEND AND ERLY NXT WK LOOKS LIKE BACK TO MID SPRING CONDS HAS HEIGHT RAPIDLY REBUILD ACR RGN. PLUS 15-20 ANOMALIES SHLD BE THE RULE AGN. MED RANGE MODELS STILL HINTING AT DECENT TSTM OUTBREAK FOR FAT TUE/ASH WED PRD. INSERTED CHC FOR THNDR FOR MIDWEEK. .EAX...NONE BODNER mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 918 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000 RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PURCELL PROFILER IS SHOWING INCREASED WESTERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN SURFACE AND 6000 FT WHICH IS HELPING TO PUSH TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FARTHER EAST. RECENT RUC GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS FEATURE WELL AND CONTINUES TO SHUNT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FARTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CURRENTLY HAVE A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALTHOUGH I EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...FEEL ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS...WHICH WARRANTS CANCELLING THE FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED WITH TULSA RFC AND UPDATED THE QPF FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH DDC RAOB SHOWING A SNOW SOUNDING AT 00Z. SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING AT DODGE CITY...GARDEN CITY...AND GUYMON. SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS ENTIRELY. SO WILL KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. .OUN... OK...FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-020 TX...NONE. JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 855 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000 ZONES IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MAKE A CHANGE TO KSUX AREA FOR CLOUD COVER. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD SHIELD SLIDING SOUTH OF AREA...WITH 00Z RUC CONTINUING SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST LOWS SEEM IN THE BALLPARK AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES THERE AT THIS TIME. WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING BACK OVER CWA FROM HI PRES CENTER IN WISCONSIN...TREND TO LIGHT WINDS IS WORKING OUT AS WELL. .FSD...NONE HAMEN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 830 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000 THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND THE RUC MDL RUN THROUGH 12Z. THEREFORE ...NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. .ABR...NONE MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1040 AM EST THU MAR 2 2000 NORTHWEST FLOW AT GROUND LEVEL GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 MPH THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST OROGRAPHIC OMEGA IN RUC VERY WEAK IN EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS. CONSIDERING THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE (HEIGHT/S ALOFT) REVEALING TROUGHING NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE (RIDGING) NORTHWEST...SO WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WIND ADJUSTMENT AS WELL. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY SENT. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. DM tn TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1013 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000 WILL NEED TO UPDATE ZNS TO BRING IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO CENTRAL TX PNHDL ATTM WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTING N INTO NRN TX PNHDL/OK PNHDL. AM CONCERNED WITH SNOW POTENTIAL ESP ACROSS CIMARRON COUNTY OK. 12Z RUC WINTER COMPOSITE INDICATES FAVORABLE H8-H7 THICKNESS VALUES FOR SNOW AS EARLY AS 21Z. LATEST OBS FM CAO INDICATES WET BULB DROPPING IN HEAVY R WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SN ALREADY. THINK INITIALLY CHANGEOVER/MIX WILL BE ASSCD WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP THEN SWITCH BACK... AT LEAST UNTIL COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND UPPER LOW LIFTING E ACROSS CENTRAL TX PNHDL THIS AFTN. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING DEFINITIVE DECISION ON PRECIP TYPE BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO MENTION SOME WINTER PRECIP WRN OK PNHDL ZNS THIS AFTN. WILL TRY FOR UPDATE WELL BEFORE NOON. SPECIAL 18Z RELEASE COMING ALSO SO LOOK FOR IT. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 947 PM EST THU MAR 2 2000 THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONITE. SFC STORM SYS TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ME INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVRNITE TONITE. FROM LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...UPR LOW PRESS CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE 12Z AVN AND 21Z RUC MODELS HAD INDICATED. THIS UPR LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENG ATTM. 21Z RUC SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING OVRNITE WITH TEMPS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20 IN THE ST LAW VLY/NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE M20S-L30S ELSEWHERE BY 09Z TONITE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE AROUND THE FA (ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN AREAS) OVRNITE. 950 MB MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACRS THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA AS WELL TONITE. BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE (AND DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL) HANGS AROUND THE LONGEST ON THE VT SIDE INTO THE DAY ON FRI. H85 WAA OCCURRING ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH "COLDEST" (NOT REALLY THAT COLD) AREA OF H85 TEMPS REMAINING ACRS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SAT. NORTHERLY UPR-LVL FLOW TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA THROUGH 00Z SAT AS WELL. CONCERNS FOR GOING FORECAST INCLUDE: LOW-LVL TEMPS WON/T BE COLD ENUFF TO SUPPORT HIGH SNOWFALL RATIOS. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. IT ALSO HASN/T STARTED SNOWING IN EARNEST ANYWHERE YET...SO THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT WON/T BE VERY LONG AT ALL (AS IT HAS BEEN FROM SOME OF THE OTHER ELEVATION EVENTS THAT THE FA HAS EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS SEASON). THIS EVENT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT (WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND A MODERATE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY AROUND) GOING FOR IT...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT. BUFCAN/IR SAT PIX SHOW AN AREA OF ENHANCED PCPN MOVING DOWN ACRS EASTERN QUE ATTM. HAVE UPGRADED CALEDONIA AND ESSEX CTYS IN VT TO A WARNING BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THIS AREA OF SN. ANOTHER AREA OF SN GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ALONG THE ST LAW RIVER VLY ATTM...BUT FEEL THE THE ST LAW VLY IN GENERAL WILL MISS OUT ON ANY WRAP-AROUND THAT OCCURS...SO WILL DROP THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THAT/S OUT FOR THERE CURRENTLY. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE WORK ZONES TO REFLECT THIS. KCXX 88D SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING SOME GOOD SNOWS THIS EVENING. HAVE SHAVED A LIL OFF OF THE GOING SNOW TOTAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI. HAVE BUMPED OVRNITE LOWS TONITE UP A NOTCH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. PRELIM WORK ZONES OUT. WILL ATTEMPT TO HAVE FINAL ZFP OUT BY 10 PM. .BTV...WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNITE/FRI MORNING VTZ002-005- NYZ029>031-034 WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNITE/FRI VTZ003-004-006>008 MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 445 PM EST THU MAR 2 2000 "FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS...WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL?" CRNTLY: SFC LOW HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH H5 LOW TRAVERSING THE FA. KCXX SHWG THE ADVANCEMENT OF MORE -SHSN INTO THE NRN CHMPL VLY. IR/WTR VAPOR LOOPS SHWG SLGT EASTWARD PROGRESS OF ONTARIO WRAPARD ACTVTY BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE DVLPMNT OF COLDER TOPS AND NEW WRAPARD BAND IN FAR NE MAINE AND ERN QUEBEC ROTATING WSW TOWARD YUL AND NRN VT. I BELIEVE THIS IS THE SETTING STAGE OF DVLPG DEEP LYRD MOISTURE WITH A SLOW VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAT WL KEEP A PERSISTENT NNW FLOW IN CLIMO FVRD UPSLOE REGIONS. HWVR...INITIALLY DEEPEST LYRD AND CONCENTRATED WRAPARD ERN ONTARIO/ LAKE ONTARIO AND WL MOVE ACRS NRN NY TNGT. QPF AMTS ARD 1/4 INCH IN ST LWRNC VLY AND MM5 SUGGESTS UP OVER 0.5 INCH NRN SLOPES OF ADRNDKS. IN VT...STL IN GENERAL DRY SLOT WITH SCT -SHSN UNDER H5 LOW...BUT WITH TIME UP NEW WRAPARD PREVIOUSLY MNTND AND ACTVTY IN ONTARIO WL SLIDE E ACRS NRN VT AS WELL. DEEP LYRD MOISTURE STAYS ACRS NRN VT THRU 18Z FRI WITH BLUSTERY AND PERSISTENT NNW UPSLOPE WHICH SHLD BRG LOCALIZED HVY SNOW IN NW SLOPES LIKE JAY PEAK. CLIMO AND PTRN RECOGNITION "HEAVILY" USED FOR THIS PKG AND THAT/S WHERE THE BREAK-UPS COME ABOUT. I/VE JUST ALL LIFE-LINES INCLUDING COORD WITH GYX AND ALY AND APPEAR TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE. SO..."FINAL ANSWER"...CHMPL VLY WL SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES BUT WESTERN SLOPES OF FRANKLIN/CHITTENDEN >6. NC-NE VLYS WILL SEE GNRLY 2-5/3-6 BUT MTNS 6-10...GIVEN MORE UPSLOPE IN NC ZONES HAVE PUT WSW FOR NC BUT WWA FOR NE VT. RECENT HISTORY (NOV/DEC '99 EVENTS) SHW MAX SNOW ALG SPINE OF NRN GREENS WITH SMALLER MAX BTWN SPINE OF GREEN AND STANNARD RANGE (WEDV1) WITH LGTR AMTS IN DOWNSLOPE OF UPR CT RVR VLY. FINALLY...SYSTEM CRAWLS OUT LATE FRI/FRI NGT WITH SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING FOR SAT. THUS...CLRG FOR MOST OF FA AND PRTL CLRG IN NE VT FRI NGT. SAT: STARTING OUT SUNNY BEFORE CLDS ADVANCE AHD OF NXT NRN STREAM S/W APPROACHING FOR SAT NGT/SUN. SAT NGT/SUN: FAST CLOSED H5 LOW WITH WEAK SFC IMPULSE MOVES ACRS FA FOR SOME -SHSN ACTVTY BEFORE MORE RIDGING TEMPORARILY MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RDRS/IR AND WV SAT PIXS CLRLY SHW MAIN CIRCULATION ACRS SRN QUEBEC/ NRN NY BDR WITH WRAPARD ACTVTY DIVING SSE ACRS LAKE ONTARIO AND ADJACENT CTYS. RUC/MESO-ETA/ETA...ETC SHW H5 LOW TRAVERSING ACRS N CNTRY MIDDAY WITH SFC LOW ACRS QUEBEC RE-DEVELOPING IN GULF OF ME. IN FACT...SOME SIGNS OF RE-DEVELOPMENT ALRDY AS PRS FALLING AND SFC OBS INDICATING DVLPG CIRCULATION. LATER THIS AFTN AS H5 LOW TRACKS E OF FA WL WNDS START VEERING TO NW AND WRAPARD STARTS SHIFTING E ACRS REST OF FA. WTR VPR/MDL DATA SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE WELL N OF CIRCULATION ATTM THAT SHLD WRAPARD S INTO NRN FA AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WL BE SLOW AND ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO FA. ALTHOUGH MOST MDL GENERATED QPF SUGGESTS BLO ADV SNOWS...MM5 SHWS ORAPGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN EXCESS OF 0.5 IN BROAD AREA ACRS ADRNDKS AND FVRD NW SLOPES OF NRN GREENS. BUFPNSBUF JUST RELEASED (921 AM) SHWS 4 IN/4 HR IN TUG HILL OF LEWIS. YES...SOME LAKE ENHANCED BUT LLVL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...SO STL SUPPORTIVE OF OUR THINKING. ATTM...WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS BUT LOOKING AT PSBLY RE-DEFINING SOME ZONES FOR PSBL ADV/WRNG AND ELIMINATING SOME FM WATCH ALTOGETHER WITH NXT PKG. IT/S A TRICKY FCST UTILIZING CLIMO/PTRN RECOGNITION MORE THAN RAW GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE/LL SEE WHERE IT ENDS UP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL LOOK LIKE WINTER AGAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE N CNTRY BY FRIDAY MRNG AND SKI AREAS WL BE HAPPY. EVERYTHING IS OUT...BUT JUST NOTICED THAT WORDED AS SNOW AND NOT WNTR WX ADV SO CORRECTIONS COMING. .BTV...WNTR STM WRNG TNGT/ERLY FRI NYZ029>031-034 WNTR STM WRNG TNGT/FRI MRNG VTZ002-005 WNTR STM WRNG TNGT/FRI VTZ003-006-008 WNTR WX ADV TNGT NYZ026-027 WNTR WX ADV TNGT/FRI VTZ004-007 SLW vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 945 AM EST THU MAR 2 2000 CRNTLY: FCST APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM. -SHRA MVD IN ON TIME LAST NGT FOLLOWED BY XPCTD DRY SLOTTING THAT HAS ACCOUNTED FOR PREDOMINANTLY JUST CLDY SKIES ACRS MUCH OF FA FOR ERLY THIS MRNG. RDRS/IR AND WV SAT PIXS CLRLY SHW MAIN CIRCULATION ACRS SRN QUEBEC/ NRN NY BDR WITH WRAPARD ACTVTY DIVING SSE ACRS LAKE ONTARIO AND ADJACENT CTYS. RUC/MESO-ETA/ETA...ETC SHW H5 LOW TRAVERSING ACRS N CNTRY MIDDAY WITH SFC LOW ACRS QUEBEC RE-DEVELOPING IN GULF OF ME. IN FACT...SOME SIGNS OF RE-DEVELOPMENT ALRDY AS PRS FALLING AND SFC OBS INDICATING DVLPG CIRCULATION. LATER THIS AFTN AS H5 LOW TRACKS E OF FA WL WNDS START VEERING TO NW AND WRAPARD STARTS SHIFTING E ACRS REST OF FA. WTR VPR/MDL DATA SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE WELL N OF CIRCULATION ATTM THAT SHLD WRAPARD S INTO NRN FA AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WL BE SLOW AND ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO FA. ALTHOUGH MOST MDL GENERATED QPF SUGGESTS BLO ADV SNOWS...MM5 SHWS ORAPGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN EXCESS OF 0.5 IN BROAD AREA ACRS ADRNDKS AND FVRD NW SLOPES OF NRN GREENS. BUFPNSBUF JUST RELEASED (921 AM) SHWS 4 IN/4 HR IN TUG HILL OF LEWIS. YES...SOME LAKE ENHANCED BUT LLVL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...SO STL SUPPORTIVE OF OUR THINKING. ATTM...WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS BUT LOOKING AT PSBLY RE-DEFINING SOME ZONES FOR PSBL ADV/WRNG AND ELIMINATING SOME FM WATCH ALTOGETHER WITH NXT PKG. IT/S A TRICKY FCST UTILIZING CLIMO/PTRN RECOGNITION MORE THAN RAW GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE/LL SEE WHERE IT ENDS UP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL LOOK LIKE WINTER AGAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE N CNTRY BY FRIDAY MRNG AND SKI AREAS WL BE HAPPY. WORKZONES AVBL SHORTLY. .BTV...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT NYZ026-027-029-030-031-034. WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING VTZ002>010. SLW vt EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LINE 16 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 325 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE MAINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND THEN STALL OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH GA AND SC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/PVA MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...KEEPING THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT N OF THE CWA. FAVORABLE 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND MINUS 1 TO MINUS 3 LIFTED INDICIES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. A JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IN FAVORABLE LOCATION. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY OFFSET THE THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY TO NEAR CLIMO. EXTENDED...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA'S WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...BEGINNING ANOTHER STRING OF WARM/DRY DAYS. MARINE...THE LATEST TREND FROM BUOY 41009 INDICATES INCREASING SEAS TO AROUND 4 FEET WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL FOLLOW RUC2 AND INDICATE WINDS DECREASING TODAY AS WEAK FRONT REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WILL SPLIT COASTAL ZONES EAST/WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW. GIVEN CURRENT OBS AT BUOYS 009/010...WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC BEYOND 20 NM. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA MAY BE REQUIRED. FIRE WX...EXPECT DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AOA 80 DEGREES...35 MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN MANY AREAS...BUT FOR MINIMAL DURATIONS. THANKS TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE FOR COORDINATION. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... DAB BE 080/057 078/053 074 013 MCO BE 082/058 078/055 077 003 MLB BE 081/059 079/056 078 003 .MLB...NONE. JMB/SPRATT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 740 PM EST THU MAR 2 2000 LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS SPLIT UPR FLOW ACRS NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH DOMINATING WX OVR CWA. SFC HI PRES ACRS NRN WI DOWNWND OF BIG UPR RDG IN SRN CAN. LLVL AIRMASS ACRS FA DRY WITH SFC DWPTS 15-23...BUT DWPTS ALREADY INCRSG ACRS SW ONTARIO IN WSWLY FLOW ON NRN FLANK OF HI. A SHRTWV DROPPING SSEWD INTO ONTARIO HAS BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE HI/MID CLD TO WCNTRL ONTARIO ON ACYC SIDE OF JET AXIS DIVING TOWARD CYTL. NMRS STNS IN WCNTRL ONTARIO RPRTG BKN100 CIGS. HAVE UPDATED ZNS TO ADD CONSIDERABLE HI CLD BASED ON OBSVD MID/HI CLD TRENDS UPSTREAM AND LATEST RUC/EARLIER MODEL FCSTS FOR CWA TO REMAIN ON ACYC SIDE OF DIGGING UPR JET OVRNGT. ALTHOUGH WNDS WL BE LGT MOST OF NGT...XPCT HI CLD TO KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING BLO CURRENT DWPTS. SO RAISED MIN FCST TEMPS A BIT AND REDUCED URBAN/LK/INLAND FCST RANGE WITH LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUTLYING INLAND AREAS. CLD TRENDS WOULD SUG FAR WRN ZNS WL SEE FEWER AC/CS ESPECIALLY LATER... BUT XPCT EARLIER ONSET OF STRGR WSWLY FLOW/MOISTENING THERE TO COMPENSATE. .MQT...NONE. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 250 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGES -- PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR S THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES. SYNOPSIS -- LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NERN KS/SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO...N OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF KICT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED LIQUID IN THE FNB AND BIE AREAS THUS FAR. MEANWHILE...06Z MANUAL AND MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...SOUTH OF KMLC WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SWRN NEB. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN KS. FORECAST -- IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KS BORDER. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...06Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE FNB INDICATE CONSIDERABLE DRYING THROUGH THE PROFILE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING. WE WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS UP TO ZONE ISSUANCE AND WORD ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE NWRN ZONES SHOULD BE THE WARMEST AS THEY WILL SEE THE MOST SUN AND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SWLY SURFACE WINDS. OVERALL...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST AND APPEARED REASONABLE. TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE AREA WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE CWFA FROM THE N...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE MINS. FRIDAY...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY MILD DAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY OR SWLY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN ZONES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGHS. IN THE EXTENDED...03/00Z RUNS OF THE AVN AND ECMWF SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST. WE WILL LOOK AT THE NEW RUN OF THE MRF WHEN IT ARRIVES AND MAKE CHANGES IF NECESSARY. .OMA...NONE MEAD ne EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 310 AM PST FRI MAR 3 2000 A STORM HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-MEXICAN BORDER TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER AND MUCH COLDER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. BASED ON SHIFT BRIEFING AND PAST PERFORMANCE OF MODELS...RUC/AVIATION ARE THE MODELS TO GO WITH FOR THE SHORT AND NEAR TERM FORECAST SOLUTION. IN THE SHORT RANGE...CENTER OF LOW/COLD POOL TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT 12 HOURS. MOSTLY CHANNEL FLOW OVER LAND WHILE ANOTHER 15 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE 750 AND 400 MB LAYER OVER COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND EXPECTED OF STRONG THERMODYNAMICS TAKING PLACE OVER WATER TODAY. CHANNEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WITH STACKED CLOSED LOW AND FLOW PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE LINES...SO LITTLE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AVAILABLE. HOWEVER SPEED MAX THAT EXITED SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION AROUND 02Z AND DROPPING SOUTH AT 35 KNOTS ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW AND NUDGES DIVERGENCE ALOFT/SECONDARY FRONTAL BAND INLAND OVER ORANGE COUNTY/INLAND EMPIRE TODAY. THE RUC MODEL FORECAST VALID 03/21Z SHOWS A -2 UBAR IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER CENTERED OVER CHINO HILLS AREA WITH ANOTHER/LARGER DIVERGENT AREA OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST CENTERED NEAR 29N 117.5W. CONNECT THE DOTS AND THE AREA TO THE WEST SHOULD DEFINE THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. HENCE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS OVER ORANGE COUNTY TODAY THAN IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE HOWEVER THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN TENDING OFFSHORE PAST 24 HOURS OVER SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE/ORANGE COUNTIES...AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO -12 MB KSNA-KSLC THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY OFFSET COOLING THAT FOLLOWED DRY FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND EMPIRE TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY MAXIMUMS AND KEEP LOW LEVELS DRY...OR THE WARMUP ONLY ACCENTUATES THE INSTABILITY IF THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR WEST WITH CENTER OF COLD AIR. AM LEANING TOWARDS CUTTING POPS THERE BACK TO 20 PERCENT TODAY...WILL HOLD FINAL DECISION TO LAST MINUTE. FOR TONIGHT THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MAKE ITS TREK INLAND AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS PLACES THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL HAVE HIGHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THERE AND GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE VARIABLE CLOUD FORECAST TO COVER BRIEF CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TRANSITORY RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS. MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...MODELS SIMILAR WITH HANDLING OF BOTH THE EJECTION OF THE FIRST LOW AND THE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD/REDEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND ITS SUBSEQUENT CYCLONIC TRACK ACROSS SW CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA TO NW SONORA THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST BY THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE MRF WHICH IS THE ONLY ONE AVAILABLE AT FIELD OFFICES IN SUFFICIENT DETAIL BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES DROP 160 METERS WITH A 5270 METER CORE MOVING ACROSS NWSO SAN DIEGO COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH THE JET CORE AND THE GREATEST DIVERGENCE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SOUTH AND EAST. A SLIGHT SHIFT W OR SW IN THE TRACK OF THE COLD AIR POOL WILL PULL THIS AREA WESTWARD. THE PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF THE APRIL 1 1999 HEAVY SNOW EVENT THAT CAUSED 8 DEATHS/13 INJURIES FROM HYPOTHERMIA IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND RESULTED IN A MASSIVE SEARCH AND RESCUE MISSION ON BOTH SIDES OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER TO SAVE ANOTHER 85-158 STRANDED PEOPLE. WILL WORK UP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOWARDS END OF WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BE UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WATCH IF SUBSEQUENT MODELS/FORECASTERS AGREE. ANOTHER BUSY WEEKEND. SAN 376 .SAN...NONE ATTM...WILL ISSUE SPS ON UPCOMING STORM AROUND 031330Z. BALFOUR ca EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 PM PST THU MAR 2 2000 A STORM MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OR NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOCAL TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER AIR WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE TIMING AND POSITION OF STORMS ERRATICALLY THIS WEEK. FORECASTERS MAY HAVE TO RELY ON REAL TIME DATA (SATELLITE LOOPS...ACARS DATA...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS) AND PERSONAL EXPERIENCE. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SYSTEM HAS RENDERED DETECTION OF CIRCULATION CENTERS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIFFICULT THIS EVENING...BUT THE LAST FEW FRAMES DETECTED A CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR THE BAY AREA...AND A SECOND CIRCULATION NEAR PT CONCEPTION. AVN AND RUC MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THESE FEATURES. WILL TREND TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE OCEAN STREAMING SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR COASTAL WATERS...AN INDICATION THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG JET STREAM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS WEST OF THE VORTICITY CENTER NEAR SFO...SO THIS VORTEX WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AND BE WEST OF SAN DIEGO BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ACTUAL STORM TRACK WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE WHAT KIND OF WEATHER WE GET. ETA BRINGS THE STORM INTO NORTHERN BAJA WITH A COLD CORE ALOFT (-24C AT 500 MB) AND STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE BORDER. IN CONTRAST...THE AVN STALLS THE UPPER CLOSED UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH (WEST OF SAN DIEGO) AND KEEPS THE COLD CORE ALOFT (-26C AT 50 MB) FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. THIS SOLUTION WOULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE ETA SOLUTION. ETA HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN A LITTLE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVES TOO FAR SOUTH. BUT THE AVN VORTICITY FIELDS BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY LOOK UNREALISTIC. SO I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF THE ETA AND AVN. THIS WILL BRING MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO SOCAL AS WE WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE UNSTABLE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ONE OTHER ITEM WORTH NOTING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...AND OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN ENHANCING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION. SURF WILL INCREASE OVER NIGHT AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. SAN 3654 .SAN...NONE. MOEDE ca EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 940 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS AM. EXPECT LIGHT WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST COAST BREEZE DEVELOPING SOME CU INLAND TOWARD MY WESTERN COUNTIES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR MY FA AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST. MARINE...PGRAD DECREASING THIS AM AND WILL DECREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. BUOY 9 INDICATES WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND RUC/MESO ETA ALSO INDICATING THIS TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES CONTINUE TO BE TRENDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WILL CONTEMPLATE DROPPING FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT 11 AM SMOKE DISPERSION UPDATE. .MLB...FIRE WX WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE... AND ORANGE COUNTIES. TROUTMAN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 400 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY OVER SE GULF AND LOWER KEYS WITH WINDS FROM DRY TO SMK NEAR CALM...WHILE MLR AND FWY REPORT W-NW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY CURVING FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AGAIN. NO 03/00Z RUNS OF THE ETA...NGM OR AVN WERE INGESTED BY EYW AWIPS... RUC AND MESO-ETA ARE AVAILABLE. WITH LITTLE NEW DATA...WILL LEAN TOWARD CURRENT FORECAST. GENERALLY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHOULD RETREAT SE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN GULF. ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF PERSISTENCE LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES AND NO RAIN CHANCES. WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT MAY SEE ENOUGH BREEZE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW A TAD HIGHER. MARINE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL SATURDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SW AS RIDGE MOVES SE. PRELIMINARY #S EYW UB 080/063 081/068 080 000 .EYW...NONE. JEB fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 545 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 UPDATE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH JAX...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT RH TO FALL TO 35 PERCENT FOR UP TO 4 HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING AND WESTERLY TRAJECTORY COMBINE TO DRY THE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...RH NEAR CRITICAL VALUES ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT LIMITED DURATIONS. TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE MAINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND THEN STALL OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH GA AND SC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/PVA MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...KEEPING THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT N OF THE CWA. FAVORABLE 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND MINUS 1 TO MINUS 3 LIFTED INDICIES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. A JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IN FAVORABLE LOCATION. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAY OFFSET THE THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY TO NEAR CLIMO. EXTENDED...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA'S WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...BEGINNING ANOTHER STRING OF WARM/DRY DAYS. MARINE...THE LATEST TREND FROM BUOY 41009 INDICATES INCREASING SEAS TO AROUND 4 FEET WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL FOLLOW RUC2 AND INDICATE WINDS DECREASING TODAY AS WEAK FRONT REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WILL SPLIT COASTAL ZONES EAST/WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW. GIVEN CURRENT OBS AT BUOYS 009/010...WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC BEYOND 20 NM. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA MAY BE REQUIRED. FIRE WX...EXPECT DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AOA 80 DEGREES...35 MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN MANY AREAS...BUT FOR MINIMAL DURATIONS. THANKS TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE FOR COORDINATION. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... DAB BE 080/057 078/053 074 013 MCO BE 082/058 078/055 077 003 MLB BE 081/059 079/056 078 003 .MLB...FIRE WX WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE... AND ORANGE COUNTIES. JMB/SPRATT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 910 PM EST THU MAR 02 2000 WV LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVR SRN NEW ENG AT THIS HOUR AND SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVG EWD. THE BROAD AREA OF -SN DRIVEN BY COLD NWLY FLOW ACRS LK ONT ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUICKLY RELEASING IT/S GRIP AS SYS PULLS OUT AND GIVES WAY TO LOWERING SUBS INVERSION. RADAR RETURNS ALREADY DISSIPATING IN WRN ZONES WITH MERELY A FEW FLURRIES LEFTOVER. WE BECAME A LTL NERVOUS EARLIER THIS EVE AS ENHANCED BELT OF SNOW INFLUENCED BY DEF ZONE TO NW OF UPR LOW SCOOTED SWD INTO ROC AREA. THIS NOW SHOWG GOOD SIGNS OF LIFTING OUT TOO. LATEST RUC AND ERLYR RUNS OF ETA SHOW MOISTURE NUDGING EWD WITH DECENT DRYING 12Z FRI AND BYND. WL ALLOW ADVSRY THAT WAS IN NRN ONEIDA EXPIRE ON SCHED AS A RESULT OF FCST TRENDS. MDLS ALWAYS MOVE COLD NWLY FLOW SNOW EVENTS OUT TOO QUICKLY...SO FOR MOST AREAS WL ILLUSTRATE A GENERAL DECREASE IN THE SNOW DOWN TO LINGERING SHSN OR FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. HAD SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF 3-4 INCH AMTS FROM TODAY...BUT ADDL CALLS TO VALLEY AND HILLTOP LOCATIONS DIDN/T YIELD MUCH CLOSE TO THAT. ROUGHLY AN INCH AND A HALF HERE AT THE ARPT. STILL FEEL SOME PARTS OF THE WRN MHWK...SUSQ AND CATSKILL RGN WL ACCUMULATE THRU MIDNIGHT. MADE A SMALL ADJ TO 2ND PD TO BLEND WITH MY TRENDING OVERNIGHT BY TWEEKING SCT WORDING BACK TO A CHC FOR SHSN FRIDAY AS NWLY FLOW S/WV RIPS ACRS CWFA...BUT LACKS SIG MOISTURE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON TARGET. .BGM...NONE BREWSTER ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1000 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000 AN AREA OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAE CWA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SOME FAIRLY THICK CI WITH VIRGA PRESENT. CAE 88D IS PICKING UP SOME OF THIS VIRGA. RUCII AND ETA SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. STILL LIKE THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUCII KEEPS SURFACE RIDGE MAINLY OVER PIEDMONT SOUTH CAROLINA WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. SO DON'T EXPECT ANY CHANGES. .CAE...NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 225 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF ILLINOIS. SOUTH PART BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... CENTERED IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. RADAR RETURNS SO FAR TODAY HAVE SHOWN AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIP SOUTH OF I-72. PRECIP HAS HAD A DEVIL OF A TIME TRYING TO GET NORTH TO SPI...WITH ONLY A COUPLE FLURRIES AND ICE PELLETS THERE. CALLS TO COOP OBSERVERS AND SHERIFFS DEPARTMENTS INDICATE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF SNOW AROUND MORRISONVILLE (SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY)...WITH OTHER AREAS ALTERNATING BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW. LOW LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE PRECIPITATION...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND INDICATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE GONE BY ZONE TIME. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE WHETHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MENTIONED THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT...MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...EXTENT OF THE WARMUP EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...THEN THREAT OF RAIN/STORMS MIDWEEK. CLOUD COVER IN IL HAS BEEN TRYING TO SCATTER OUT NORTH OF I-74...AND WAS CLEAR NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RUC 60% RH FIELDS. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL BE PULLING SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...SO SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE EVENING IN OUR CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE THEY MAY HANG ON LONGER...PER RUC GUIDANCE. ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF TAKING CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A NICE WARMUP. FAN/FWC GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN FWC WARMS UP MORE AS RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR SUNDAY...GOING WITH THE CURRENT MID 60S...AND GO NEAR GUIDANCE BEFORE THAT. IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH RIDGE ON TOP OF US. WE THEN SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. THINK THE MANUAL PROGS ARE TOO FAST...IN BRINGING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABLY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO A IRK-SGF LINE...WHICH WOULD KEEP US WARM FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT GO TOO OVERBOARD WITH TEMPS...BUT WILL GO ABOVE FMR NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WILL STICK WITH GOING FORECAST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY... BUT MOST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE INTERESTING IN ANY CASE. PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORD ONLY. SPI UU 030/059 039/066 046 72000 PIA UU 030/060 039/066 045 72000 DEC UU 030/059 039/066 046 72000 CMI UU 028/059 039/066 046 72000 MTO UU 030/061 037/066 044 72600 LWV UU 033/061 037/067 045 72400 .ILX... IL...NONE. GEELHART/KETCHAM il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 530 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2000 ZONES ARE GOING TO NEED AN EARLY UPDATE THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT IS SURGING EWD ACROSS NW LA...AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH ARE NOT COMING SOUTH QUITE AS FAST AS THE RUC EARLIER INDICATED. NEED TO ADJUST SKY WORDING IN SOME OF THE GROUPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG I-20...TO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL ALSO BACK THE 30 POPS IN THE EAST DOWN TO 20 BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. 05 .SHV...NONE. la