AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 325 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/... RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO TONIGHT AS STRONG DIGGING 500H CLOSED LOW STILL DROPPING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WITH BACKING SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS THE CENT U.S. SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS FILLED IN ACROSS ERN KS AND NO/CENT MO IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE PRECIP FLOWS NORTH INTO IOWA...IT WILL BE BUCKING COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL EAT AWAY AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL NW OF A LINE FROM MOUNT AYR TO INDIANOLA TO MARSHALLTOWN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM ADAMS COUNTY THROUGH POLK COUNTY TO BREMER COUNTY. ANY SNOWFALL WILL AMOUNT TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HEAVIER...THE P-TYPE WILL BE MORE COMPLICATED...STARTING OUT AS A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (OTTUMWA...CENTERVILLE...BLOOMFIELD AREAS). A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVER THE ICE ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THAT AREA TO COVER THIS DANGEROUS WINTER SITUATION. JUST TO THE NW OF THE WARNING AREA...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ACCUMULATION AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING WARRANTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTN. AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE COME DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL IOWA. THE TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT WAS JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON 12Z MODEL RUNS...BUT THE 18Z NAM RUN HAS SHIFTED THIS GRADIENT INTO DAVIS COUNTY...GOING FROM 0 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THAT COUNTY ALONE. THIS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC FOR THE PRECIP WOULD BE ALL SNOW...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AT THOSE VALUES. IN ORDER NOT TO JUMP ON ONE MODEL'S 18Z RUN...HAVE OPTED TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FCST DRY FARTHER NW...BUT MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON ANY TRENDS IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THAT WOULD NECESSITATE THROWING SOME POPS FARTHER INTO OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL BE AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST CONTINUING. AN IMPULSE IN THE NRN STREAM COMES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT-WEDNESDAY/... UPR MIDWEST WILL BE UNDER COLD NW FLOW AS THE LARGE UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SLOWLY MOVES AWAY SUN AND MON. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR TUES/WED. THE CANADIAN/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN REINFORCING THE UPR LVL TROF OVR THE UPR MIDWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE FLOW OUT ACROSS THE NRN U.S. THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE SUPPORT FOR THE COLDER SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT FORECAST LEANING THAT WAY. DEPENDING ON TRENDS...THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SOME LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES IF THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO PORTRAY A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. CONSENSUS AMONG THE SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST. && DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING IAZ075-085-086-095>097. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IAZ039-050-061-062-073>075-082>-084-092>094. && $$ MOYER ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 159 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE... SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AND MODELS TRENDING NORTHWEST WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...HEADLINES WILL BE EXTENDED AND/OR CHANGED FOR THURSDAY. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON THESE HEADLINES CAN BE FOUND AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT. MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH ROUTINE FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUANCE BY 330 PM. SCHRECK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ UPDATE... RECENTLY SENT UPDATE TO FORECAST TO BOOST POPS SUBSTANTIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KS THIS PM/TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RUC /NAM-WRF MODEL DATA FROM 12Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THRU SERN KS...WITH NEW DEVELOPING RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BASED ON SURFACE OBS AND SOUNDING DATA...THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN RUMBLES OF THUNDER. NAM-WRF/GFS SOUNDING DATA SHOWS NEGATIVE EPV EVEN AS FAR WEST AS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS PM/EVE...WITH SLANTWISE/UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POSSIBLE! WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 20S THIS PM...THIS COULD CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES ESP ON OVERPASSES...AS WELL AS LIGHT ICING ON TREES/POWERLINES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING ACCUMULATIONS (1/2 INCH OR GREATER) TARGETING SOUTHEASTERN KS...WITH THE GREATEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. WE EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO DETERORIATE DOWN THERE AFTER DARK...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE DOWNED TREE LIMBS/POWERLINES. WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND UPDATED WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. JMC && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ DISCUSSION... FRONT RACED THROUGH WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WLD AND EUREKA BETWEEN 0800 UTC-09 UTC. TEMPERATURE FELL FROM 62 TO 48 AT WLD IN ABOUT 30 MINIMUMS. TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING AT RSL/GBD AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL FASTER THAN MODEL PROGNOSTICS THIS MORNING. TODAY-TONIGHT: BASED ON FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TO SIMPLIFY PRODUCTS...WILL HOIST WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AREA ROUGHLY EAST OF I-35 AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES WEST OF I-35. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF A LINE FROM ERIE TO HOWARD TO MADISON. TIMING OF WARNING WAS PROBLEMATIC...WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...OPTED TO START IT AREAWIDE AT 1800 UTC. DECISION TO GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE EVENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE EFFECTS OF ICE FORECAST. SOME CONCERN WITH HOW WELL MODELS ARE HANDLING SHORTWAVE STILL SLIGHTLY DIGGING IN SOUTHERN AZ. A BIT OF EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT IT NEAR AMA AROUND 1900 UTC. THINK THAT FEATURE WILL BE MAIN MODULATOR OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THIS EVENT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING...DESPITE FRONT IN THE AREA. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CLIPPING RSL/GBD ROUGHLY 2100 UTC-0400 UTC. WHILE MICROPHYSICS LOOK DECENT FOR SNOW...LIMITING FACTOR IS STABILTY. ANTICIPATE FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH. THU-FRI: LATEST GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL RUN CONTINUE TO PAINT OMINOUS STORM AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS...APPEARS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS MAY GET CLIPPED BY SYSTEM BEFORE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHUTS DOWN PRECIPITATION. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAIN EAST OF FORECAST AREA AND EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ WEAKER WITH UPPER SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME SNOW IN GRIDS AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE EVENT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET IN THE DRY AIRMASS. SAT-SUN: VERY QUICK PEEK AT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON SAT...ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THIS AIR MAY BE SHUNTED EAST. APPEARS THAT ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK MAY BRING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. -HOWERTON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 34 18 28 15 / 50 40 10 10 HUTCHINSON 29 16 26 13 / 30 30 10 10 NEWTON 31 17 27 14 / 50 30 10 10 ELDORADO 34 18 28 14 / 60 50 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 37 19 29 15 / 60 50 10 10 RUSSELL 26 11 26 11 / 30 30 0 5 GREAT BEND 27 11 26 11 / 30 30 0 5 SALINA 28 15 26 13 / 30 20 5 10 MCPHERSON 29 16 26 13 / 40 20 5 10 COFFEYVILLE 57 24 30 15 / 80 70 40 40 CHANUTE 43 23 30 14 / 80 70 30 40 IOLA 38 22 30 14 / 80 70 30 40 PARSONS-KPPF 54 24 30 14 / 80 70 40 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ069>072-093>096- 098>100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR KSZ052-053-068- 083-092. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ051>053-067-068-082-083-091-092. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1040 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE... RECENTLY SENT UPDATE TO FORECAST TO BOOST POPS SUBSTANTIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KS THIS PM/TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RUC /NAM-WRF MODEL DATA FROM 12Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THRU SERN KS...WITH NEW DEVELOPING RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BASED ON SURFACE OBS AND SOUNDING DATA...THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVEN RUMBLES OF THUNDER. NAM-WRF/GFS SOUNDING DATA SHOWS NEGATIVE EPV EVEN AS FAR WEST AS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS PM/EVE...WITH SLANTWISE/UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POSSIBLE! WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 20S THIS PM...THIS COULD CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES ESP ON OVERPASSES...AS WELL AS LIGHT ICING ON TREES/POWERLINES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DATA STILL SHOWS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING ACCUMULATIONS (1/2 INCH OR GREATER) TARGETING SOUTHEASTERN KS...WITH THE GREATEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. WE EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO DETERORIATE DOWN THERE AFTER DARK...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE DOWNED TREE LIMBS/POWERLINES. WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND UPDATED WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ DISCUSSION... FRONT RACED THROUGH WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WLD AND EUREKA BETWEEN 0800 UTC-09 UTC. TEMPERATURE FELL FROM 62 TO 48 AT WLD IN ABOUT 30 MINIMUMS. TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING AT RSL/GBD AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL FASTER THAN MODEL PROGNOSTICS THIS MORNING. TODAY-TONIGHT: BASED ON FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TO SIMPLIFY PRODUCTS...WILL HOIST WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AREA ROUGHLY EAST OF I-35 AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES WEST OF I-35. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF A LINE FROM ERIE TO HOWARD TO MADISON. TIMING OF WARNING WAS PROBLEMATIC...WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...OPTED TO START IT AREAWIDE AT 1800 UTC. DECISION TO GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE EVENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE EFFECTS OF ICE FORECAST. SOME CONCERN WITH HOW WELL MODELS ARE HANDLING SHORTWAVE STILL SLIGHTLY DIGGING IN SOUTHERN AZ. A BIT OF EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT IT NEAR AMA AROUND 1900 UTC. THINK THAT FEATURE WILL BE MAIN MODULATOR OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH THIS EVENT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING...DESPITE FRONT IN THE AREA. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CLIPPING RSL/GBD ROUGHLY 2100 UTC-0400 UTC. WHILE MICROPHYSICS LOOK DECENT FOR SNOW...LIMITING FACTOR IS STABILTY. ANTICIPATE FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH. THU-FRI: LATEST GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL RUN CONTINUE TO PAINT OMINOUS STORM AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS...APPEARS THAT ONLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS MAY GET CLIPPED BY SYSTEM BEFORE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHUTS DOWN PRECIPITATION. BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAIN EAST OF FORECAST AREA AND EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ WEAKER WITH UPPER SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME SNOW IN GRIDS AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ADVISORY/WARNING TYPE EVENT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET IN THE DRY AIRMASS. SAT-SUN: VERY QUICK PEEK AT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON SAT...ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THIS AIR MAY BE SHUNTED EAST. APPEARS THAT ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK MAY BRING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. -HOWERTON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 34 18 28 15 / 50 40 10 10 HUTCHINSON 29 16 26 13 / 30 30 10 10 NEWTON 31 17 27 14 / 50 30 10 10 ELDORADO 34 18 28 14 / 60 50 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 37 19 29 15 / 60 50 10 10 RUSSELL 26 11 26 11 / 30 30 0 5 GREAT BEND 27 11 26 11 / 30 30 0 5 SALINA 28 15 26 13 / 30 20 5 10 MCPHERSON 29 16 26 13 / 40 20 5 10 COFFEYVILLE 57 24 30 15 / 80 70 40 40 CHANUTE 43 23 30 14 / 80 70 30 40 IOLA 38 22 30 14 / 80 70 30 40 PARSONS-KPPF 54 24 30 14 / 80 70 40 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR KSZ069>072-093>096- 098>100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR KSZ052-053-068- 083-092. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 102 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS ALL OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE AND STALL SOUTH OF THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE AREA. && .UPDATE /REST OF TODAY/... UPDATED GRIDS & ZFP TO REMOVE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MEZ001-002 AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 30S. DRIZZLE & FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PER LATEST RUC & NAM-WRF. RADAR DEPICTING AS WELL. && .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD W/WAA & SLY FLOW SETTING UP. STRATUS & FOG WILL BE THE RULE. && .MARINE... NO CHGS FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ .UPDATE...HEWITT me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 238 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED THE BULK OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN CORNER OF THE UPPER PENINSULA...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS...THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. STILL...SIGNIFICANT DRYING WAS NOT EVIDENT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE MAIN ELONGATED SFC LOW HAS SWUNG NORTHEASTWARD INT CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT HAD JUST MOVED EAST OF THE CWA...AND STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT 500 MB...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH RAN FROM EASTERN MANITOBA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE 250 MB JET WAS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IDAHO...AND BUCKLED UP NORTHEASTWARD WITH A MAX OF 130 KT FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MINNESOTA. COLDEST AIR...CURRENTLY SET UP OVER ID...MT...WY...AND THE DAKOTAS WILL BE SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...IT WILL ATTEMPT TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE SFC FRONT...WHICH HAD EXITED TO OUR EAST OVER THE LATE MORNING HOURS HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ON THE VIS SAT IMG THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE FROM CMX TO EGV. THE SCT TO BKN CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER A CLEAR SKY THANKS TO EXITING MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING...FEW CLOUDS AND STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MORNING TEMPS IN THE TEENS. MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT....BUT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE IN OFF OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALLOW FOR A SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM FRIDAY MORNING ON. THE RUC13 AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE NW SHORELINE WILL BE EFFECTED MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...AND THEN MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SHORELINE GETTING SOME SORT OF ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME ONLY SMALL TWEAKS WERE DONE TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY. .EXTENDED... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION...CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY MORNING SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AT THE SURFACE...ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT WITH SMALL QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY DRY PERIOD FOR MOST WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE CUT OFF FROM ANY GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS THE 500 MB LOW SLIDES OVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR DAYS 6 - 7...LARGER DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE 06Z AND 00Z GFS EVEN SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 06Z GFS DRIES US UP A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY...GIVEN A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS THE NATION. DID NOT FOLLOW THIS TREND WHOLE HEARTEDLY...BUT DID LOWER OUR POPS SLIGHTLY BASICALLY BLENDING THE TWO GFS SOLUTIONS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 926 PM MST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO REMOVE WINTER WX ADV FOR ZONES 14 AND 15...EXTEND WINTER WX ADV UNTIL 4 AM FOR ZONE 04. REISSUED CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR EXISTING ZONES AND UPGRADED ZONES 18...20...AND 21 INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. WINTER WX ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 80KM RUC MODEL SOLN SHOWS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS 120KNOT 300MB JET DIVES SOUTH INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPGRADED PART OF WINTER WX ADV OVER PORTIONS OF SE NM TO WINTER STORM WARNING AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER SE NM. EVEN NOTICED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN TEXAS WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ALSO NOTING A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SAF AND ABQ. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER TO CREATE A FEW MORE GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND LEAVE VERY COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MST WED NOV 29 2006 BIGGEST WINTRY STORM OF THIS YOUND SEASON SO FAR CONTINUING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS NM. LIKELY FRONTOGENETIC/DYNAMIC ENHANCED SNOW BANDS ALREADY HAVE DROPPED SOME WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRL AND NE NM MAINLY ZONES 5...11 AND 12 THAT WE HAVE HEARD ABOUT HERE. ZONES 1...2...3...8...9 WILL NOT BE IN HIGHLIGHTS WITH 9 BEING CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO AN INCH OR POSSIBLY 2 IN FAR E BERNALILLO AND VALENCIA COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN PRODUCTS. ZONE 4 EXTENDED TO 9 PM PARTLY DUE TO EXPECTED SLIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SLOPE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. FURTHER OUT IN TIME CHANGES RELATIVELY FEW WITH TEMP TWEAKS...MORE DOWN THAN UP...THE MAIN FOCUS. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ006-NMZ007- NMZ012-NMZ013. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ016-NMZ017- NMZ019-NMZ026. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ005-NMZ010- NMZ011. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ018-NMZ020- NMZ021. && $$ GUYER nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 956 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS POSSIBILITY/EXTENT OF DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPS. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WEST OF THE HWY 17 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER REMAINDER OF INLAND ZONES AND JUST PATCHY FOG OVER THE OUTER BANKS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. RUC 40 KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THESE CLOUDS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. IF THICKER CLOUD COVER HAPPENS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THEN EXTENT OF DENSE FOG WILL BE REDUCED. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS WAS TO DECREASE WINDS OVER INLAND ZONES WHERE VARIABLE TO CALM CONDITIONS EXIST. && .AVIATION...AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AFT 07Z. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 09Z AS FOG THICKENS. VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFT 13Z BUT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN VRB TO CALM OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT AS A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT EXISTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUNDS BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ029- 044-045-079-080-090>093-098. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WINGENROTH AVIATION...WINGENROTH MARINE...WINGENROTH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 924 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE...VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER SHOT HERE. TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF VERY QUICKLY AND ANALYSIS INDICATES ALREADY APPROACHING CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...HOWEVER IT IS VERY NARROW AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS ONCE THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSE ENOUGH...EXPECT PRECIPIATION TO BREAK OUT ONCE AGAIN AND WITH THE FRONT NOT THAT FAR TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. WITH THE NEW NAM AND RUC...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT. SO WILL LEAVE THE HEAD LINES IN THE BIG COUNTRY ALONE. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY AS THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD...BUT FOR NOW THINGS LOOK GOOD AS IS. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT MAKING MUCH BETTER PROGRESS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CONCHO...MCCULLOCH AND SAN SABA COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AREA AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THAT TIME. BRIDGES AND OVER PASSES MOST AT RISK OF FREEZING AS GROUND TEMEPRATURES ARE WARM. AGAIN THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BRAZZELL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ UPDATE...HAVE ALREADY DONE SOME GRID UPDATES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FALLING VERY QUICKLY AND THIS IS HARD TO PIN DOWN IN THE GRIDS...BUT GAVE IT ANOTHER SHOT BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FROM ABOUT STERLING CITY TO SOUTH OF BALLINGER TO JUST NORTH OF BROWNWOOD. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SO WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FREEZING PRECIPITATION COULD START A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. SO HAVE INCREASED THE SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SLANT WISE. THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THE DRY SLOT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAY HINDER THE PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. PROFILES MUCH COLDER AND THUS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY PRESENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND UPDATE LATER IF NEEDED. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WARNING BACK WEST A LITTLE IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE MORE DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT DETERMINATION THOUGH. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ AVIATION... ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KABI AND IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD BE ALONG INTERSTATE 10 BY LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE KABI TAF...AFTER 30/06Z. PCPN TYPE WILL START OUT AS -FZRA AND MIX WITH SLEET AFTER 30/12Z. WINTER PRECIP SHOULD END AT KABI BY MID MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ SHORT TERM... WHAT A MESS SO LETS GET RIGHT TO IT. ARCTIC FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ITS PACE A LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND HAS NOW CROSSED INTERSTATE 20 AT 21Z. IN FACT...ASOS AT KABI SHOWED AN 18 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IN 2 MINUTES AS THE FRONT PASSED. THINK FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH...REACHING SAN ANGELO AND BROWNWOOD BY AROUND 00Z AND THEN TO INTERSTATE BY 03Z...ROUGHLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY ALREADY FALLING INTO THE 30S...SO WILL HIT THE FREEZING MARK THERE BY MID EVENING...PROBABLY MIDNIGHT AT ABILENE...AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SJT AND BWD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM ADVECTION LIFT WILL EAST EAST THIS EVENING...AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT AREA OF LIFT FROM THE WEST. NEXT QUESTION CONCERNS THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO. MODELS NOW INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO OKLAHOMA BY 12Z. SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE TRACK MEANS THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WHICH MEANS THAT THERE IS SOME THREAT OF THUNDER...OR AT LEAST BANDING...SETTING UP. DO NOT THINK THIS IS A WIDESPREAD HEAVY ICE AND SNOW EVENT...BUT DO THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION POCKETS. THUS...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND SEEMS PRUDENT. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ENDING THE PRECIP. LONG TERM... A QUICK PEEK AT THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUIET. WILL DELAY THE WARMING TREND SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 26 32 22 48 / 70 50 10 10 SAN ANGELO 28 36 21 51 / 40 30 10 10 JUNCTION 34 38 20 55 / 50 30 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALLAHAN- HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BROWN- COLEMAN. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR COKE-FISHER- NOLAN-RUNNELS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CONCHO. && $$ 27/27 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1240 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE... UPDATING TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 869 TO ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE FINISHED AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM PART OF THE ZONES...AS WE ARE STILL WORKING ON THIS PART. TR.92 && .AVIATION.. COMPLEX TAF PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION THU AM. COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. PRE-FRONTAL TS ALREADY DEVELOPING MIDWAY FROM WICHITA FALLS TO THE METROPLEX. ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOUT UNCAPPED AND EXPECT TS VCNTY METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY/AFT 21Z. ANTICIPATING FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO METROPLEX DURING 23-01Z TIMEFRAME. ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL SHRA/TS POSSIBLE TIL 03Z OR SO WITH SHRA AND SOME HEAVY RA LATER THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING CHANGEOVER TO SOME FZRA IN THE 09-13Z TIMEFRAME. BY 13-14Z...APPEARS SUFFICIENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY ICE PELLETS (PL) THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE TAF. STRONG N/NNWLY POST FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY IFR-MVFR CAT CIGS THIS EVENING INTO THU AM. && .UPDATE... ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM PROGS. RUC SOLUTION AGREES MOST REASONABLY WITH EXTRAPOLATION...AND WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AROUND 4 PM...METROPLEX AROUND 7 OR 8 PM...WACO AROUND 11 PM. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL/SLEET POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE DOING A 18Z SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE CAP STRENGTH...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE...AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE GRIDS...HAVE SPED UP TIMING IN THE TEMP/WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FURTHER. THE NAM/GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH THE POST FRONTAL PRECIP...AND WITH FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER...WE HAVE MOVED THE FROZEN PRECIP CHANGEOVER SOUTHWARD. VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE NW COUNTIES...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY BEING ISSUED SOUTH OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST...WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA. WILL MAKE THE CALL ON UPGRADING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TR.92 && .DISCUSSION... 415 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006 WINTER IS ON THE WAY...BUT HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SO ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALREADY NOSING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO MODIFY FRONTAL TIMING AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL INFO. FORTUNATELY THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH IS STILL A FAST OUTLIER. SOMETHING THAT IS A LITTLE TROUBLESOME IS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN US DIGGING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED AT ONLY 9 HOURS OUT. THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE WINTER PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HERES THE THINKING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH 50KT LLJ PROGGED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX BY LATER THIS AFTN. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTN AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY THEN LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO A LINE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCREET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY BY 25- 35 DEGREES...HOWEVER MAIN UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE LAGGING BEHIND. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBLEM IS...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...TO NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z THU IN THE NORTHWEST...AND TO NEAR FREEZING BY MIDDAY THU ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT WET BULB COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS INITIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S THU MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO DIDNT MAKE MANY CHANGES THERE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE LINE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING BEFORE 12Z. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS...ONLY EXPECT VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ON BRIDGES. AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WILL EXPAND IT SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE METROPLEX AND AREAS JUST SOUTH FOR THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AND JUST SOUTH. SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4 INCH. PRECIP CHANCES END THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. EXPECT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN NEXT SUNDAY. REFERENCE FTWWSWFWD FOR THE LATEST ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 36 36 26 / 50 90 80 10 WACO, TX 81 39 39 27 / 40 70 70 10 PARIS, TX 77 37 37 20 / 50 100 90 20 DENTON, TX 76 34 34 24 / 60 90 80 10 MCKINNEY, TX 75 36 36 24 / 50 90 90 20 DALLAS, TX 77 37 37 26 / 50 90 80 10 TERRELL, TX 79 39 39 25 / 50 80 80 20 CORSICANA, TX 81 41 41 27 / 40 80 80 10 TEMPLE, TX 82 42 42 27 / 40 70 60 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119- TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133- TXZ134-TXZ141. && $$ DUNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1153 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .AVIATION.. COMPLEX TAF PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION THU AM. COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. PRE-FRONTAL TS ALREADY DEVELOPING MIDWAY FROM WICHITA FALLS TO THE METROPLEX. ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOUT UNCAPPED AND EXPECT TS VCNTY METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY/AFT 21Z. ANTICIPATING FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO METROPLEX DURING 23-01Z TIMEFRAME. ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL SHRA/TS POSSIBLE TIL 03Z OR SO WITH SHRA AND SOME HEAVY RA LATER THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING CHANGEOVER TO SOME FZRA IN THE 09-13Z TIMEFRAME. BY 13-14Z...APPEARS SUFFICIENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY ICE PELLETS (PL) THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE TAF. STRONG N/NNWLY POST FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY IFR-MVFR CAT CIGS THIS EVENING INTO THU AM. && .UPDATE... ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM PROGS. RUC SOLUTION AGREES MOST REASONABLY WITH EXTRAPOLATION...AND WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AROUND 4 PM...METROPLEX AROUND 7 OR 8 PM...WACO AROUND 11 PM. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL/SLEET POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE DOING A 18Z SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE CAP STRENGTH...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE...AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE GRIDS...HAVE SPED UP TIMING IN THE TEMP/WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FURTHER. THE NAM/GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH THE POST FRONTAL PRECIP...AND WITH FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER...WE HAVE MOVED THE FROZEN PRECIP CHANGEOVER SOUTHWARD. VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE NW COUNTIES...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY BEING ISSUED SOUTH OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST...WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA. WILL MAKE THE CALL ON UPGRADING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TR.92 && .DISCUSSION... 415 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006 WINTER IS ON THE WAY...BUT HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SO ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALREADY NOSING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO MODIFY FRONTAL TIMING AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL INFO. FORTUNATELY THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH IS STILL A FAST OUTLIER. SOMETHING THAT IS A LITTLE TROUBLESOME IS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN US DIGGING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED AT ONLY 9 HOURS OUT. THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE WINTER PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HERES THE THINKING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH 50KT LLJ PROGGED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX BY LATER THIS AFTN. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTN AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY THEN LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO A LINE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCREET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY BY 25- 35 DEGREES...HOWEVER MAIN UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE LAGGING BEHIND. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBLEM IS...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...TO NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z THU IN THE NORTHWEST...AND TO NEAR FREEZING BY MIDDAY THU ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT WET BULB COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS INITIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S THU MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO DIDNT MAKE MANY CHANGES THERE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE LINE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING BEFORE 12Z. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS...ONLY EXPECT VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ON BRIDGES. AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WILL EXPAND IT SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE METROPLEX AND AREAS JUST SOUTH FOR THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AND JUST SOUTH. SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4 INCH. PRECIP CHANCES END THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. EXPECT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN NEXT SUNDAY. REFERENCE FTWWSWFWD FOR THE LATEST ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 36 36 26 / 50 90 80 10 WACO, TX 81 39 39 27 / 40 70 70 10 PARIS, TX 77 37 37 20 / 50 100 90 20 DENTON, TX 76 34 34 24 / 60 90 80 10 MCKINNEY, TX 75 36 36 24 / 50 90 90 20 DALLAS, TX 77 37 37 26 / 50 90 80 10 TERRELL, TX 79 39 39 25 / 50 80 80 20 CORSICANA, TX 81 41 41 27 / 40 80 80 10 TEMPLE, TX 82 42 42 27 / 40 70 60 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119- TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133- TXZ134-TXZ141. && $$ DUNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1040 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE... ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AND IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM PROGS. RUC SOLUTION AGREES MOST REASONABLY WITH EXTRAPOLATION...AND WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AROUND 4 PM...METROPLEX AROUND 7 OR 8 PM...WACO AROUND 11 PM. THIS MAY HELP MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL/SLEET POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE DOING A 18Z SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE CAP STRENGTH...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE...AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SEVERE STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE GRIDS...HAVE SPED UP TIMING IN THE TEMP/WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FURTHER. THE NAM/GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH THE POST FRONTAL PRECIP...AND WITH FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLIER...WE HAVE MOVED THE FROZEN PRECIP CHANGEOVER SOUTHWARD. VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE NW COUNTIES...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY BEING ISSUED SOUTH OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST...WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA. WILL MAKE THE CALL ON UPGRADING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TR.92 && .AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FORECAST IS QUITE A COMPLICATED ONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FORTUNATELY...WE ARE ONLY DEALING WITH 24 HOURS FOR THE TAFS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 11Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS EVENING...AROUND 03Z...AND THEN THROUGH THE WACO AREA AROUND 06Z. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT COULD SPEED UP...AND MOVE THROUGH EARLIER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE CURRENTLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. #58 && .DISCUSSION... 415 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006 WINTER IS ON THE WAY...BUT HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SO ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALREADY NOSING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO MODIFY FRONTAL TIMING AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL INFO. FORTUNATELY THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH IS STILL A FAST OUTLIER. SOMETHING THAT IS A LITTLE TROUBLESOME IS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN US DIGGING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED AT ONLY 9 HOURS OUT. THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE WINTER PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HERES THE THINKING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH 50KT LLJ PROGGED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX BY LATER THIS AFTN. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTN AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY THEN LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO A LINE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCREET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY BY 25- 35 DEGREES...HOWEVER MAIN UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE LAGGING BEHIND. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBLEM IS...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP...TO NEAR FREEZING BY 12Z THU IN THE NORTHWEST...AND TO NEAR FREEZING BY MIDDAY THU ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT WET BULB COOLING COULD LOWER TEMPS INITIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S THU MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO DIDNT MAKE MANY CHANGES THERE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE LINE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING BEFORE 12Z. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS...ONLY EXPECT VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ON BRIDGES. AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WILL EXPAND IT SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE METROPLEX AND AREAS JUST SOUTH FOR THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AND JUST SOUTH. SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1/4 INCH. PRECIP CHANCES END THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. EXPECT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN NEXT SUNDAY. REFERENCE FTWWSWFWD FOR THE LATEST ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 77 36 36 26 / 50 90 80 10 WACO, TX 81 39 39 27 / 40 70 70 10 PARIS, TX 77 37 37 20 / 50 100 90 20 DENTON, TX 76 34 34 24 / 60 90 80 10 MCKINNEY, TX 75 36 36 24 / 50 90 90 20 DALLAS, TX 77 37 37 26 / 50 90 80 10 TERRELL, TX 79 39 39 25 / 50 80 80 20 CORSICANA, TX 81 41 41 27 / 40 80 80 10 TEMPLE, TX 82 42 42 27 / 40 70 60 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119- TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133- TXZ134-TXZ141. && $$ DUNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 937 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO DROP REMAINDER OF ADVISORY AND REMOVE POPS. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM KPHB...TO KAXA. VERY WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAINLY THIN CIRRUS AND THUS TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATEST RUC INDICATING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND THUS WILL UPDATE GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. && JLR .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND NECESSITY FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN KORD AND KMKE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. SUBTLE SURFACE WAVE NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THESE WERE PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD AND CONVECTION WAS EMBEDDED...AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. RADAR COMPOSITE ALSO INDICATED EXPANDING ECHOES IN AFOREMENTIONED AREA... WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING. 12Z 29NOV06 MODELS HAD GOOD CONSENSUS ON SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH 00Z 03DEC06. OF SPECIAL NOTE...GFS ENSEMBLE AND NCEP SREF INDICATED PROBABILITIES OF 80-100 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA TONIGHT. THIS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MISS THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...EXCELLENT CLUSTERING IN THE RUC...NAM/WRF AND GFS OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS FORCING ORIENTED FROM ABOUT KOLZ TO KDLL FROM 21Z 29NOV06-09Z 30NOV06...BEFORE EXITING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CROSS SECTION SUPPORTS NEGATIVE EPV IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL...WHICH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS SUPPORT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THEREFORE... OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION... VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS CORROBORATED BY NCEP SREF PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS... HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD CHANCE CATEGORY SNOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. THIS WAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BEST FORCING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE INDICATED GROWING CONSENSUS OF A SIGNAL WHICH SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT COULD HAVE ADEQUATE FORCING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...SEEMED PRUDENT TO ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT TO CURRENT DATA BASE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE && $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 815 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .UPDATE... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH PARTICIPATION FALLING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF AN ADAMS WISCONSIN TO CASSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND SOME SLEET. HOWEVER...MAIN FRONTOGENETIC BAND SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THUS WILL BEGIN TRIMMING BACK ON THE ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. && JLR .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND NECESSITY FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN KORD AND KMKE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. SUBTLE SURFACE WAVE NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THESE WERE PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD AND CONVECTION WAS EMBEDDED...AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. RADAR COMPOSITE ALSO INDICATED EXPANDING ECHOES IN AFOREMENTIONED AREA... WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING. 12Z 29NOV06 MODELS HAD GOOD CONSENSUS ON SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH 00Z 03DEC06. OF SPECIAL NOTE...GFS ENSEMBLE AND NCEP SREF INDICATED PROBABILITIES OF 80-100 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA TONIGHT. THIS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MISS THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...EXCELLENT CLUSTERING IN THE RUC...NAM/WRF AND GFS OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS FORCING ORIENTED FROM ABOUT KOLZ TO KDLL FROM 21Z 29NOV06-09Z 30NOV06...BEFORE EXITING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CROSS SECTION SUPPORTS NEGATIVE EPV IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL...WHICH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS SUPPORT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THEREFORE... OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION... VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS CORROBORATED BY NCEP SREF PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS... HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD CHANCE CATEGORY SNOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. THIS WAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BEST FORCING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE INDICATED GROWING CONSENSUS OF A SIGNAL WHICH SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT COULD HAVE ADEQUATE FORCING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...SEEMED PRUDENT TO ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT TO CURRENT DATA BASE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ043- WIZ044-WIZ055-WIZ061. MN...NONE. IA...NONE && $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 245 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND NECESSITY FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN KORD AND KMKE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. SUBTLE SURFACE WAVE NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THESE WERE PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD AND CONVECTION WAS EMBEDDED...AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. RADAR COMPOSITE ALSO INDICATED EXPANDING ECHOES IN AFOREMENTIONED AREA... WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING. 12Z 29NOV06 MODELS HAD GOOD CONSENSUS ON SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH 00Z 03DEC06. OF SPECIAL NOTE...GFS ENSEMBLE AND NCEP SREF INDICATED PROBABILITIES OF 80-100 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA TONIGHT. THIS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MISS THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...EXCELLENT CLUSTERING IN THE RUC...NAM/WRF AND GFS OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS FORCING ORIENTED FROM ABOUT KOLZ TO KDLL FROM 21Z 29NOV06-09Z 30NOV06...BEFORE EXITING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CROSS SECTION SUPPORTS NEGATIVE EPV IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL...WHICH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS SUPPORT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. THEREFORE... OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI FOR TONIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION... VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS CORROBORATED BY NCEP SREF PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS... HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD CHANCE CATEGORY SNOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. THIS WAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BEST FORCING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE INDICATED GROWING CONSENSUS OF A SIGNAL WHICH SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT COULD HAVE ADEQUATE FORCING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...SEEMED PRUDENT TO ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT TO CURRENT DATA BASE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061. MN...NONE. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ011-IAZ029-IAZ030. && $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 331 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... TODAY: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NM...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THE LOCATION OF THE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING THE WICHITA METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SE KS ON TUES DO TO LINGERING SNOW IMPACT/CONSISTENCY. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 25 11 31 12 / 100 50 5 0 HUTCHINSON 25 10 34 12 / 70 20 5 0 NEWTON 26 11 33 12 / 100 50 5 0 ELDORADO 26 12 31 12 / 100 80 5 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 25 12 30 12 / 100 80 5 0 RUSSELL 25 8 40 13 / 20 10 5 0 GREAT BEND 25 8 38 13 / 30 10 5 0 SALINA 25 10 36 14 / 40 20 5 0 MCPHERSON 25 10 35 13 / 60 20 5 0 COFFEYVILLE 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 CHANUTE 26 14 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 IOLA 26 13 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 PARSONS-KPPF 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ069-070-093- 094-098. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ071-072-095-096- 099-100. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ052-053-068- 083-091-092. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ050-051-067- 082. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 315 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NM...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THE LOCATION OF THE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING THE WICHITA METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SE KS ON TUES DO TO LINGERING SNOW IMPACT/CONSISTENCY. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... INFO OUT VERY SHORTLY. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... INFO OUT VERY SHORTLY. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 400 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... MANY CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. THEY BOTH BRING THE FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN HOLD IT UP...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PIVOTS TO MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW WILL ROCKET NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....WITH INTENSE COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTEST...AND DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW TAKING IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND DEEPENING IT 7 MB IN THE PROCESS. THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...BUT WHO KNOWS. THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND IS SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE...AND PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS TODAY. GENERALLY FAVORED THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR WINDS. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THAT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GET GOING NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MAY TAKE THE FORM OF A FINE LINE OF STORMS...GIVEN THE HIGHLY FORCED EXTREME SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...AND WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AFTER THE LOW MOVES BY. AS FOR THE WINTER POTENTIAL...IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS TOO SLOW TO BRING IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IN FAR WESTERN AREAS ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE RAPID DRYING ALOFT OVERNIGHT...WITH SATURATION LIMITED TO THE RAPIDLY COOLING NEAR SURFACE LAYER. LITTLE LIFT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AT THAT TIME...AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE IT BECOMES LIGHT SNOW. FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT LIKELY CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS SINCE THE GROUND IS SO WARM...BUT SOME ELEVATED SURFACES COULD HAVE A MINOR GLAZE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW...BUT AM NOT THAT THRILLED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF A FUTURE WARNING RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. STARTED WITH RUC 2M TEMPERATURES THROUGH 18Z AND THE WENT WITH A MODIFIED MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT FOR AREAS NW OF A DONIPHAN TO JACKSON LINE. IL...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT FOR AREAS NW OF A CARBONDALE TO FAIRFIELD LINE. IN...NONE. && $$ DRS ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANY IMPACTS FRI WITH THE LARGE SYNOPTIC STORM TO THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LONG WAVE TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SW CONUS WITH MID LVL LOWS OVER NRN ONTARIO AND NM. A VORT AXIS STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO CNTRL MN IN LINE WITH 170 KT 250 MB JET(FROM LK SUPERIOR TO THE NE) IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE BTWN THE TROF AND THE SE CONUS RDG. A WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SW MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS WAS BUILDING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM N GEORGIAN BAY AND CNTRL LWR MI TO CNTRL IL. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH 2-3 MB/3 HR PRES RISE MAX NEAR CYQT HAD SUPPORTED GUSTY WINDS AOA 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW. VERY COLD AIR WAS POURING INTO UPPER MI ON THE WNW WINDS WITH TEMPS NEAR 0F UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. DESPITE 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -17C...THE VERY DRY AIR HAS BEEN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LES WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REPORTED OVER NW UPPER MI. TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM WNW TO NNW AS THE NRN ONTARIO MID LVL LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MANITOBA SHRTWV APPROACHES. MDLS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THOUGH THE MANITOBA SHRTWV TROF MAY PROVIDE MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MOISTURE OR INVERSION HEIGHTS. SO...LES INTENSITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE 3K-4K FT INVERSION REMAIN NEAR -15C. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LOW PRES MOVING INTO IL...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE. THIS WILL FAVOR N CNTRL UPR MI FOR LES WHERE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE CONTINUAL SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DECENT LOW LVL CONV TO SET UP WITH HELP FROM LAND BREEZE. FRI...THE NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NW WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LVL AND SFC LOW WITH THE WINTER STORM EMERGING FROM THE SRN PLAINS MOVING THE SFC LOW TOWARD SE ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GEM KEEP THE TRACK FARTHER S TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE FCST LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/UKMET SCENARIO...PER HPC...A HEDGE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS WARRANTS MENTION OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SE CWA WITH THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE GFS MOISTENING SEEMS LESS LIKELY...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT LES TO CONTINUE FOR NE FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. REMAINING LES WILL TAPER OFF AS WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK TO MORE WRLY AS A WEAK SFC RDG OR COL DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE FAVORED LES LOCATIONS WILL SHIFT FROM N CNTRL UPR MI TO LOCATIONS E OF MUNISING. SAT INTO SUN...MDLS SUGGEST THAT THE MID LVL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR NRN BC WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR -SHSN OVER THE AREA. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT REMAINING AOB 0.25 INCH WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT...MAINLY BELOW AN INCH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING LES POTENTIAL AS THE SFC TROF DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AOA 10K FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES FCST AOA 800 J/KG AND FOCUSED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE VCNTY TROF COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HEAVY LES IN SOME LOCATIONS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 317 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .SHORT TERM... POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SE ACRS NM. WATER VAPOR AND 3H ISOTACHS INDICATE LOW WILL STILL MOVE SE NEXT FEW HOURS AS 120KT 3H JET REMAINS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW NEAR 4 CORNERS REGION. OTHERWISE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NEARING BIG BEND. RADAR/SFC OBS INDICATE SN ACRS SE NM AND NW PB ATTM WITH REPORT OF 1" OF SNOW ON GROUND IN N EDDY CO. ALSO RADAR SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHSN (MODERATE TO HEAVY) DEVELOPING FARTHER E ACRS CENTRAL/N PB. WRF-80 INDICATES TROPOPAUSE FOLD DOWN THRU 3H WITH 4H-2H EPV VALUES 3-6 SUGGESTING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. RUC LOOKS TO BE THE FARTHEST S SOLN WITH 5H LOW WHICH TRACKS ACRS SE NM/NW PB AND WILL SIDE WITH THAT SOLN. ALSO MODELS ARE DEPICTING BEST 7H WAA ACRS NE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS IS WHY SHSN ARE DEVELOPING ACRS PB ATTM. ISOLD THUNDER SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS THE E. LOOKING AT KMAF VWP WINDS AROUND 7H ARE BACKED ABOUT 20 DEGREES MORE THAN MODELS INDICATE AND THEREFORE EXPECT THAT 7H WAA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODEL FCST. AS SUCH WILL OPT TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS THRU 15Z. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS INCLUDE POTENTIAL NEED FOR UPDATE TO HEAVY SNOW WARNING ACRS N-NE. ATTP WILL OPT TO NOT PLAY THAT CARD UNTIL LATER PRIMARILY BECAUSE POSITION OF 5H LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST A LITTLE TO FAR N AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE E AS OF THIS WRITING ARE TRANSLATING EWD QUICKLY. AFTER 15Z PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE ...HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHSN THRU EARLY P.M.. AS FOR TEMPS MET MOS IS RUNNING ABOUT 9 DEGREES BEHIND MIDNIGHT TEMP AND BASED ON LOW LEVEL CAA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS. SKEPTICAL THAT M30S WILL BE REACHABLE TODAY ACRS PB/SE NM AND WILL DECREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE COLD AIR JUST STARTING THE MOVE THRU THE PASS AND WITH BATDRAW RAWS SHOWING N WINDS 30G44 MPH EXPECT THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS TO DEVELOP THRU GDP AND WILL EXTEND NPW UNTIL 15Z. .LONG TERM... WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC ON THE CWA TRANSLATES EASTWARD. SATURDAY WE/LL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...BUT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING TEMPERATURES NEARLY AS COLD AS THOSE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. WHILE NEITHER THE MODELS NOR MOS HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS POINT...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT EITHER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE TIMING MAY BE OFF WITH THE BEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE NOT COMPLETELY COINCIDENT. BEYOND THE FRONT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL TRAIL ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS TWO AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORMS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...JUST LOOKING AT IT TO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP AND MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 34 18 55 25 / 50 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 33 22 56 26 / 50 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 41 25 57 31 / 10 10 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 35 26 59 32 / 10 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 33 26 51 28 / 50 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 34 18 54 22 / 50 0 0 0 MARFA TX 34 12 53 23 / 10 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 33 19 54 25 / 40 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 34 19 55 27 / 40 0 0 0 WINK TX 36 19 59 22 / 30 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN... DAWSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARTIN. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...HOWARD...MITCHELL...SCURRY. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GAINES. && $$ 49/74 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1103 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006 .AVIATION... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING SOME WINTER PCPN TO BOTH TERMINALS. GIVEN THE BELOW FREEZING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES...PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. WINTER PRECIP SHOULD END AT BOTH TERMINALS MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY AROUND NOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ UPDATE...VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER SHOT HERE. TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF VERY QUICKLY AND ANALYSIS INDICATES ALREADY APPROACHING CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...HOWEVER IT IS VERY NARROW AND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS ONCE THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSE ENOUGH...EXPECT PRECIPIATION TO BREAK OUT ONCE AGAIN AND WITH THE FRONT NOT THAT FAR TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. WITH THE NEW NAM AND RUC...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT. SO WILL LEAVE THE HEAD LINES IN THE BIG COUNTRY ALONE. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY AS THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD...BUT FOR NOW THINGS LOOK GOOD AS IS. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT MAKING MUCH BETTER PROGRESS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CONCHO...MCCULLOCH AND SAN SABA COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AREA AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THAT TIME. BRIDGES AND OVER PASSES MOST AT RISK OF FREEZING AS GROUND TEMEPRATURES ARE WARM. AGAIN THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BRAZZELL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ UPDATE...HAVE ALREADY DONE SOME GRID UPDATES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FALLING VERY QUICKLY AND THIS IS HARD TO PIN DOWN IN THE GRIDS...BUT GAVE IT ANOTHER SHOT BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FROM ABOUT STERLING CITY TO SOUTH OF BALLINGER TO JUST NORTH OF BROWNWOOD. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SO WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FREEZING PRECIPITATION COULD START A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. SO HAVE INCREASED THE SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SLANT WISE. THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THE DRY SLOT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAY HINDER THE PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. PROFILES MUCH COLDER AND THUS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER WITH ALL THE INSTABILITY PRESENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND UPDATE LATER IF NEEDED. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WARNING BACK WEST A LITTLE IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE MORE DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT DETERMINATION THOUGH. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ AVIATION... ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KABI AND IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD BE ALONG INTERSTATE 10 BY LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE KABI TAF...AFTER 30/06Z. PCPN TYPE WILL START OUT AS -FZRA AND MIX WITH SLEET AFTER 30/12Z. WINTER PRECIP SHOULD END AT KABI BY MID MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006/ SHORT TERM... WHAT A MESS SO LETS GET RIGHT TO IT. ARCTIC FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ITS PACE A LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND HAS NOW CROSSED INTERSTATE 20 AT 21Z. IN FACT...ASOS AT KABI SHOWED AN 18 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IN 2 MINUTES AS THE FRONT PASSED. THINK FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH...REACHING SAN ANGELO AND BROWNWOOD BY AROUND 00Z AND THEN TO INTERSTATE BY 03Z...ROUGHLY. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY ALREADY FALLING INTO THE 30S...SO WILL HIT THE FREEZING MARK THERE BY MID EVENING...PROBABLY MIDNIGHT AT ABILENE...AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SJT AND BWD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM ADVECTION LIFT WILL EAST EAST THIS EVENING...AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT AREA OF LIFT FROM THE WEST. NEXT QUESTION CONCERNS THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO. MODELS NOW INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO OKLAHOMA BY 12Z. SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE TRACK MEANS THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WHICH MEANS THAT THERE IS SOME THREAT OF THUNDER...OR AT LEAST BANDING...SETTING UP. DO NOT THINK THIS IS A WIDESPREAD HEAVY ICE AND SNOW EVENT...BUT DO THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION POCKETS. THUS...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND SEEMS PRUDENT. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ENDING THE PRECIP. LONG TERM... A QUICK PEEK AT THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUIET. WILL DELAY THE WARMING TREND SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 70 26 32 22 / 20 70 50 10 SAN ANGELO 73 28 36 21 / 20 40 30 10 JUNCTION 77 34 38 20 / 30 50 30 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CALLAHAN- HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BROWN- COLEMAN. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR COKE-FISHER- NOLAN-RUNNELS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CONCHO. && $$ 15/99/15 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 422 AM MST THU NOV 30 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING... CURRENTLY...WELL ADVERTISED COLD BLAST IS HERE. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO MANY OF THE LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS SAN LUIS VALLEY...AR RIVER VALLEY...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY... ETC. ALSO...PALMER DIVIDE IS AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS ARE RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO TO 32 BELOW ZERO IN LEADVILLE. GIVEN THE DATA I HAVE...SAN LUIS VALLEY IS NEARING WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND LEADVILLE IS STAYING JUST BELOW WIND CHILL WARNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LOCAL POLICY DOES NOT ALLOW FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. RELATIVELY REFRESH SNOW AND ICE/CRUSTY SNOW PACK COVERS MANY AREAS. THE SKY CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES ANIMATION SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NM AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER CO. ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR...WAS A LARGE BAND OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW...WHICH MAY GIVEN US MORE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TODAY...FIRST CONCERN IS WIND CHILL HAZARDS. DIGITAL FORECAST DATA HAS A FEW PIXELS OF ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA BEING ME ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPPER/MIDDLE AR RIVER VALLEY. PROBABLY NOT A BIG ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRENT HEADLINES...SO WILL LET THE ZFP AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DO THE TALKING. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE SKY SHOULD BE NEARLY CLOUD-FREE EXPECT SOME MORNING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST CO AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS NORTHWEST FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP. TOUGH CALL ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A NUMBER OF FACTORS COME INTO PLAY. FIRST...THE RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW COVER WILL TAKE SOME ENERGY AWAY FOR MELTING. SECOND...LOW SUN ANGLE AND SHORT DAYLIGHT PERIOD DOES NOT HELP FOR WARMING. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACHING MOS NUMBERS IS THE WIND PICKING UP AND MIXING DOWN RELATIVELY WARMER AIR. 12KM WRF SOUNDING IS INTERESTING AS YOU STEP THROUGH TIME SEEING THE WARMING ALOFT AND THE SURFACE-PBL TRYING TO KEEP UP DURING THE DAY. WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND UNDERCUT MOS A CATEGORY OR TWO. TONIGHT...ANOTHER TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING...MIDLEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE TONIGHT. BRISK WIND CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST CO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PAINTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES JUST WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...MUCH LIKE TONIGHT FOR EXAMPLE KALS -11F AND +9F AT SAGUACHE. METZE .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS CAPTURES CWFA'S METEOROLOGY QUITE WELL FOR THE LONG TERM AS LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND NOON FRIDAY UNTIL ANOTHER UPPER WAVE BRINGS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...1 TO 7 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY BE NOTED FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL LOW. ALSO...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM VALUES NOTED ON FRIDAY. THIS TIME AROUND THE NAM12 IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THAN THE GFS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY SO AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS THIS TIME-FRAME AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE TRENDS DEVELOP. FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...VARIOUS FORMS OF UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY LATER WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS DAY 7 WILL NOT BITE ON THIS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WELL-CONTAINED DURING THE LONG TERM. THANKS SURROUNDING SITES FOR COORDINATION/COLLABORATION. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 900 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW STARTING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AS A DRY SLOT HAS EMERGED OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL TAKING ITS TRADITIONAL FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE DATA SHOWS CLOUD CEILINGS DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AS RADAR RETURNS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THOSE AREAS. WE COULD SEE THE FIRST HEAVY SNOW BAND SET UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MODELS SHOW A VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR A NORTH NORTHEAST HEAVY SNOW BAND COULD SET-UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR A LINE OVER CALDWELL...WELLINGTON...DERBY...EL DORADO TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HR. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED RE- DEVELOP FURTHER EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS...PERHAPS ALONG A WINFIELD TO EUREKA LINE. WE WILL USE SPS(SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS) TO HELP HIGHLIGHT THE REALLY INTENSE SNOWFALL AREAS IN THE NEAR TERM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SCENARIO AND KEEP UPDATES FLOWING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. JAKUB TODAY-TONIGHT: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NAUTICAL MILE...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THOSE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR ERLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NM...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THE LOCATION OF THE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING THE WICHITA METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SE KS ON TUES DO TO LINGERING SNOW IMPACT/CONSISTENCY. -HOWERTON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 25 11 31 12 / 100 50 5 0 HUTCHINSON 25 10 34 12 / 70 20 5 0 NEWTON 26 11 33 12 / 100 50 5 0 ELDORADO 26 12 31 12 / 100 80 5 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 25 12 30 12 / 100 80 5 0 RUSSELL 25 8 40 13 / 20 10 5 0 GREAT BEND 25 8 38 13 / 30 10 5 0 SALINA 25 10 36 14 / 40 20 5 0 MCPHERSON 25 10 35 13 / 60 20 5 0 COFFEYVILLE 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 CHANUTE 26 14 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 IOLA 26 13 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 PARSONS-KPPF 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ052-053- 068>070-083-091>094-098. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ071-072-095-096- 099-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ050-051-067- 082. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 920 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SLICK ROADS CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...DUE TO OVERNIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. LATEST UPPER AIR DATA...COUPLED WITH 12Z NAM/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS SOUTH OF TUL/MIA LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS 750 MB WARM LAYER REMAINS. AS POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO HEAVY SNOW WITH 2 INCH/PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY AND NEAR THE OK/KS STATE LINE. ALREADY SENT UPDATED ZONES TO TWEAK/REFINE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGES THROUGH TONIGHT... OTHERWISE OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY/FSM AREA STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...LIMITING AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM FREEZING RAIN/ICING POTENTIAL. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054- OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062- OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070- OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076. AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010- ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....21 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1100 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SFC IS INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN STRATO AND ALTO CU ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WARM H85 TEMPS OF +13C WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN BE VERY WARM...PUSHING 80 IN SPOTS. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A N-S BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SETTING UP ALONG THE GA/SC BORDER. THE RUC AND THE NAM-12 APPEAR TO BE KEYING ON THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH THEIR NEXT 6 HR QPF PROGS. RECONFIGURED THE POP SCHEME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST GA TO SOUTHERN SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PER LATEST RUC/NAM GUIDANCE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS WELL. NEW PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. && .MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. RESIDUAL 4-5 SWELL STILL AFFECTING THE GA WATERS WITH PROBABLE 6 FT SEAS OVER FAR OUTER PORTION OF AMZ374. WILL RETAIN SCEC FOR THE GA NEARSHORE FOR 4-5 FT SEAS AND THE SCA OVER OUTER GA WATERS FOR 4-6 FT SEAS. && .AVIATION...ABUNDANT ALTO AND STRATO CUMULUS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THIS MORNING DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE 300K THETA SFC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING KSAV SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAY SEE BRIEF LGT TO MOD RAIN SHRA AT KCHS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING THIS EVENING AND BOTH AIRPORTS MAY KEEP NEAR 10 KT OF SSE WIND BTWN 00Z AND 06Z. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AM374. && $$ JRL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 203 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .UPDATE... WE ARE SENDING OUT ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A VERY MATURE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING ITS TRACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO BUILD NORTH WHICH MEANS IT MAY BE STARTING ITS OCCLUSION PHASE. ANOTHER PIECE OF EVIDENCE IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT STARTING TO WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT REGION AS WELL SINCE THEY MAY STAY NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS ALSO SHOWING TWO OR THREE SNOW BANDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONE OF THE BANDS WAS SET UP ALONG A SEDGWICK TO EASTERN HARPER LINE WHILE ANOTHER BAND WAS SETUP ACROSS ELK...GREENWOOD...CHAUTAUQUA AND COWLEY. THE FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF TIGHTENING UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH MAY LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. WE HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO NIX THE ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA WHICH INCLUDES RENO...HARVEY...AND MARION COUNTIES SINCE THE SNOW HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED IN THIS REGION. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006/ UPDATE... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS AFTERNOON IS WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE AND WHERE A MIXED BAG IS ANTICIPATED. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 700MB PROFILERS ARE ALREADY RESPONDING TO THIS FEATURE WITH GOOD BACKING TAKING PLACE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND HELP BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM AND FUNNEL INTO THE COLDER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING TWO FAIRLY GOOD BANDS SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FIRST BAND APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS AREAS ALONG A MARION TO CHENEY LINE WITH THE VISIBILITY DROPPING IN THIS BAND TO NEAR ZERO. THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY PRODUCE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE THIS BAND WEAKENS AND FIZZLES OUT BY 1 OR 2 PM ACCORDING TO THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. MEANWHILE...A SECOND BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ALONG A WINFIELD TO EUREKA LINE. THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY CAUSE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FOOT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY SET UP. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE PUSHING IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SO AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE TURNPIKE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A SMALL AREA OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY SEE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME VERY ICY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THE MID LEVEL THIS EVENING. THIS COULD CUT DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006/ UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW STARTING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AS A DRY SLOT HAS EMERGED OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL TAKING ITS TRADITIONAL FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE DATA SHOWS CLOUD CEILINGS DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AS RADAR RETURNS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THOSE AREAS. WE COULD SEE THE FIRST HEAVY SNOW BAND SET UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MODELS SHOW A VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR A NORTH NORTHEAST HEAVY SNOW BAND COULD SET-UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR A LINE OVER CALDWELL...WELLINGTON...DERBY...EL DORADO TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HR. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED RE- DEVELOP FURTHER EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS...PERHAPS ALONG A WINFIELD TO EUREKA LINE. WE WILL USE SPS(SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS) TO HELP HIGHLIGHT THE REALLY INTENSE SNOWFALL AREAS IN THE NEAR TERM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SCENARIO AND KEEP UPDATES FLOWING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. JAKUB TODAY-TONIGHT: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NAUTICAL MILE...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THOSE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR ERLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NM...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THE LOCATION OF THE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING THE WICHITA METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SE KS ON TUES DO TO LINGERING SNOW IMPACT/CONSISTENCY. -HOWERTON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 25 11 31 12 / 100 50 5 0 HUTCHINSON 25 10 34 12 / 70 20 5 0 NEWTON 26 11 33 12 / 100 50 5 0 ELDORADO 26 12 31 12 / 100 80 5 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 25 12 30 12 / 100 80 5 0 RUSSELL 25 8 40 13 / 20 10 5 0 GREAT BEND 25 8 38 13 / 30 10 5 0 SALINA 25 10 36 14 / 40 20 5 0 MCPHERSON 25 10 35 13 / 60 20 5 0 COFFEYVILLE 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 CHANUTE 26 14 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 IOLA 26 13 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 PARSONS-KPPF 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ053-069-070- 083-091>094-098. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ071-072-095-096- 099-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ082. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1100 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .UPDATE... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS AFTERNOON IS WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE AND WHERE A MIXED BAG IS ANTICIPATED. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 700MB PROFILERS ARE ALREADY RESPONDING TO THIS FEATURE WITH GOOD BACKING TAKING PLACE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND HELP BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM AND FUNNEL INTO THE COLDER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING TWO FAIRLY GOOD BANDS SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FIRST BAND APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS AREAS ALONG A MARION TO CHENEY LINE WITH THE VISIBILITY DROPPING IN THIS BAND TO NEAR ZERO. THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY PRODUCE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE THIS BAND WEAKENS AND FIZZLES OUT BY 1 OR 2 PM ACCORDING TO THE LOCAL WRF MODEL. MEANWHILE...A SECOND BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ALONG A WINFIELD TO EUREKA LINE. THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY CAUSE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FOOT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY SET UP. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE PUSHING IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...SO AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE TURNPIKE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A SMALL AREA OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY SEE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME VERY ICY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THE MID LEVEL THIS EVENING. THIS COULD CUT DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006/ UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW STARTING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AS A DRY SLOT HAS EMERGED OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL TAKING ITS TRADITIONAL FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS. LATEST SURFACE DATA SHOWS CLOUD CEILINGS DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...AS RADAR RETURNS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THOSE AREAS. WE COULD SEE THE FIRST HEAVY SNOW BAND SET UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS MODELS SHOW A VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR A NORTH NORTHEAST HEAVY SNOW BAND COULD SET-UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR A LINE OVER CALDWELL...WELLINGTON...DERBY...EL DORADO TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HR. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED RE- DEVELOP FURTHER EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS...PERHAPS ALONG A WINFIELD TO EUREKA LINE. WE WILL USE SPS(SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS) TO HELP HIGHLIGHT THE REALLY INTENSE SNOWFALL AREAS IN THE NEAR TERM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SCENARIO AND KEEP UPDATES FLOWING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. JAKUB TODAY-TONIGHT: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NAUTICAL MILE...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THOSE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR ERLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006/ DISCUSSION... TODAY: MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED ONTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND APPEARS AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ARK CITY TO ERIE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. PRIMARILY USED GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/RUC ARE NOT THAT BIG. ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AS UPPER SYSTEM...STILL ORGANIZING IN NM...EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TX. STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN WARNING AREA. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT AT TIMES..THE BEST LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW COULD RUN TOTALS UP QUICKLY. THE LOCATION OF THE DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS WERE A RESULT OF ANTICIPATED LENGTH OF TIME MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...INCLUDING THE WICHITA METRO WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SECOND MINOR WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...WITH MUCH SMALLER FLAKES ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...GUST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. SOME SLEET/FZRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING BASED ON SOUNDINGS...BUT OPTED TO NOT MENTION THAT IN GRIDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SNOW. TONIGHT: PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT WARNING GOING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS CAN NIX AS NECESSARY. CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING. LOCATION OF CLEARING LINE BY DAYBREAK WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON MINIMUMS. FRI-SUN: SNOW COVER BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...AND REDUCED MAXES/MINIMUMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE MAXES IN CENTRAL KS ON FRI WHERE SINGLE DIGIT START MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. RATHER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MIGHT KEEP MINIMUMS FROM SINGLE DIGITS ON SAT...BUT THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. MON-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SE KS ON TUES DO TO LINGERING SNOW IMPACT/CONSISTENCY. -HOWERTON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 25 11 31 12 / 100 50 5 0 HUTCHINSON 25 10 34 12 / 70 20 5 0 NEWTON 26 11 33 12 / 100 50 5 0 ELDORADO 26 12 31 12 / 100 80 5 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 25 12 30 12 / 100 80 5 0 RUSSELL 25 8 40 13 / 20 10 5 0 GREAT BEND 25 8 38 13 / 30 10 5 0 SALINA 25 10 36 14 / 40 20 5 0 MCPHERSON 25 10 35 13 / 60 20 5 0 COFFEYVILLE 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 CHANUTE 26 14 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 IOLA 26 13 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 PARSONS-KPPF 26 15 30 10 / 100 100 5 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ052-053- 068>070-083-091>094-098. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ071-072-095-096- 099-100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR KSZ051-067-082. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 336 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA BEING UPGRADED TO WARNING... MAIN UNCERTAINTY DEALS WITH THIS PACKAGE DEALS WITH HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION VS. SLEET/GLAZE (ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN (FZRA)) ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SOUNDINGS OF THE RUC/GFS AS PRECPITATION TYPE ALL DAY HAVE BEEN MORE SLEET THAN THE ALL FZRA SOUNDINGS THE NAM HAS BEEN FORECASTING. THERE IS A BAND OF MDT TO HVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL AND CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH THE 0ZARKS INTO WRN AR ATTM. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD THIS EVENING INTO CNTRL IL. THIS MEANS THAT THE SAME AREA WILL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MDT-HVY SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WELL INTO THE EVENING... RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET/GLAZE. CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE AS GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER THROUGH LATE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A SHARP TRADE OFF BETWEEN JUST SNOW VS. A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FZRA ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THINKING IS THAT SLEET/GLAZE TOTALS WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE JUST SNOW TOTALS OVR ERN STL METRO AREA WITH ONLY 2-4 INCHES...WHEREAS THE WRN METRO COUNTIES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SLEET WITH 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF IT. FARTHER NW OVER CNTRL AND NERN MO/W CNTRL IL...THIS MIX WILL SWITCH OVER BY MID EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE NOW OVER WRN MO/ERN KS/OK LIFTS NEWD WITH THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. ALL OF THE NECESSARY SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING WILL SET UP TO PRODUCE A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THIS AREA...WITH 10-14 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING OVER THE FAR SRN AND ERN COUNTIES AS THE TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGED OVER...SHOULD SEE FZRA/SLEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TOP OF IT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS NEWD. OTHERWISE...WENT COLDER ON GUIDANCE TEMPS AS THEY ARE NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE FRESH SNOW COVER. REST OF FORECAST IS DRY WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES AS NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. BRITT/BYRD/GLASS && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS. THERE HAS BEEN A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL...THROUGH E CNTRL MO SWWD INTO S CNTRL MO. KSTL/KSUS HAS SEEN STEADY -FZRAPL FROM THIS BAND ALL MORNING... COMPARED TO KUIN/KCOU WHERE IT HAS BEEN MAINLY PRECIP FREE. WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE M0VEMENT OF THE BAND...HAVE PREDOMINANT -FZRAPL WITH MVRF/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS GOING HERE THROUGH THE EVENING. AT KCOU/KUIN...THINK THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME PATCHY -FRDZSN (FLURRIES) THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE MEASUREABLE FZRAPL RETURNS BY LATE AFTN. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...DRAMATICALLY INCREASING FORCING AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. HAVE FZRA CHANGING OVER TO PLSN FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AT KCOU/KUIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO MDT TO HVY SNOW WITH VLIFR CIGS/VBYS FOR 6+ HOURS LATE THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. FEELING CONTINUES TO BE THAT CNTRL AND NERN MO/W CNTRL IL WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 1 FOOT. FARTHER TO THE SE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY FZRAPL WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANGE OVER LATER TONIGHT. KSTL/KSUS WILL SIT ALONG SHARP LINE BETWEEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/BUT MORE ICE ACCUMULATION. SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE SHOWN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE TAFS. BRITT && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE- CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX- LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE- RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN- WASHINGTON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IRON-MADISON- REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE. IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CLINTON IL- FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1241 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .UPDATE... FIRST THRUST OF THE WINTER STORM HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE COMBO HAS RESULTED IN ICE ACCUMLATIONS OF AROUND ONE HALF INCH ALONG A LINE FROM OWENSVILLE TO TROY TO CARROLLTON. THE FREEZING LINE AT MIDDAY RUNS FROM NORTHERN REYNOLDS COUNTY THROUGH ST CLAIR COUNTY TO NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY. SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF SE MO AND SW IL BY LATE AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY EVENING. THE AWAITED DEFORMATION ZONE HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED FROM OK INTO ERN KS OVER THE LAST FEW HRS AS THE UPR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MEAINWHILE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH STL INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL HOLD STEADY. EXPECTING THE VOID IN PCPN CURRENTLY ACRS CNTRL AND WRN MO WILL FILL-IN AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IN ASSOCN WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPR SYS. PTYPE QUESTIONS STILL LURK. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BE PREDOMINATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE ARE FAVORING THE COLDER RUC AND GFS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MO/WC IL DURING THE EVENING...AND WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR ECNTRL MO/STL AREA. POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR FROM CENTRAL MO INTO WCNTRL IL. CURRENT THINKING IS A BAND OF 12+ INCHES FROM NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF UIN. THE GFS SHOWS POSITIVE CAPE...SO AMOUNTS OF 18+ ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BANDING AND THUNDER ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. THERE WILL BE A SHARP SEWD GRADIENT TO THE SNOW WITH AS MUCH AS 6-7 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE STL METRO TAPERING TO AN INCH OR SO IN FAR SE SXNS. OF MORE CONCERN ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SLEET AND ICE/FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH OF ICE MUCK QUITE LIKELY. THIS ZONE IS LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER 12-15H OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. GLASS && .DISCUSSION... THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL BE IMPACTING THE BI- STATE REGION TODAT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ATTM WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL BEHIND IT CHANGING THE RAIN TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. THE COLD AIR IS ADVANCING FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD THAN THE MODELS HAD FCST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS RECENTLY TAPERED OFF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WELL BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE MID-UPR LVL LOW CURRENTLY OVR SERN NM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH OK THIS AFTN AND EVNG TO JUST S OF STL BY 12Z FRI. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE NEWD THRU AR THIS AFTN AND EVNG TO JUST E OF STL BY 12Z FRI. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR TGT OVR THE NRN AND WRN PTN OF THE CWA LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE MID LVL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB LOW. IT APRS THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP OVR THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA LT TGT INTO FRI MRNG WITH A TOTAL OF NR ONE FOOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE STG SLY LLJ AHD OF THE 850 MB LOW BRINGS VRY STG WAA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVR THE COLD BLW FREEZING SFC LYR RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. THE FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS ELEVATED WRM LYR OVR THE SUBFREEZING SFC LYR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ICE ACCUMULATION INITIALLY ON ELEVATED SFCS...TREES AND POWER LINES THEN EVENTUALLY ON THE GROUND AND ROAD SFC AS THE SFC AND GROUND TEMPERATURE CONTS TO LWR. STG WNDS TDA AND TGT WILL ONLY AGGREVATE THE SITUATION LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TGT INTO FRI ESPECIALLY N AND W OF STL...AND ALSO POSSIBLY LEADING TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE ACCUMULATION AND THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRI AFTN ALTHOUGH THE COLD CONDITIONS WILLL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND. PLAN TO FCST BLW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE SNOW CVR EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF THE CWA. GKS && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS. THERE HAS BEEN A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL...THROUGH E CNTRL MO SWWD INTO S CNTRL MO. KSTL/KSUS HAS SEEN STEADY -FZRAPL FROM THIS BAND ALL MORNING... COMPARED TO KUIN/KCOU WHERE IT HAS BEEN MAINLY PRECIP FREE. WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE M0VEMENT OF THE BAND...HAVE PREDOMINANT -FZRAPL WITH MVRF/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS GOING HERE THROUGH THE EVENING. AT KCOU/KUIN...THINK THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME PATCHY -FRDZSN (FLURRIES) THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE MEASUREABLE FZRAPL RETURNS BY LATE AFTN. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...DRAMATICALLY INCREASING FORCING AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. HAVE FZRA CHANGING OVER TO PLSN FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AT KCOU/KUIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO MDT TO HVY SNOW WITH VLIFR CIGS/VBYS FOR 6+ HOURS LATE THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. FEELING CONTINUES TO BE THAT CNTRL AND NERN MO/W CNTRL IL WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 1 FOOT. FARTHER TO THE SE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY FZRAPL WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANGE OVER LATER TONIGHT. KSTL/KSUS WILL SIT ALONG SHARP LINE BETWEEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/BUT MORE ICE ACCUMULATION. SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE SHOWN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE TAFS. BRITT && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE- CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX- LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE- RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN- WASHINGTON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IRON-MADISON- REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE. IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL- BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CLINTON IL- FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 345 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MIXED PRECIP EARLIER TODAY IS NOW ALMOST ALL SNOW AS WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS FINALLY BEEN COOLED. DRY SLOT HAS MOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT AN ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY BAND HAS DEVELOPED FROM FREEDOM TO CLINTON TO WEST OF LAWTON TO EAST OF WICHITA FALLS. THUNDER WAS ALSO RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN NWS EMPLOYEE IN THE BLANCHARD AREA. TREND IN MOVEMENT AND THE OMEGA FIELD IN THE RUC INDICATE THAT THIS ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE ENHANCEMENTS... BUT THE BAND IS MOVING SO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW... WILL LEAVE WARNINGS AS IS RIGHT NOW AND ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO CANCEL SEGMENTS OF THE WARNINGS AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THINGS COOLER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH THE ANTICIPATED HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS YET BUT WILL BE WATCHING MODEL TRENDS AND EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 14 37 15 38 / 70 0 0 10 HOBART OK 13 40 16 39 / 30 0 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 17 43 23 47 / 30 0 0 10 GAGE OK 7 39 13 37 / 20 0 0 10 PONCA CITY OK 10 30 7 32 / 90 0 0 10 DURANT OK 20 41 23 48 / 30 10 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006-OKZ007- OKZ008-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004- OKZ005-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022- OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030- OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038- OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046- OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083- TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 311 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE VERY UNIQUE FORECAST DAYS. AS OF 20Z THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF PARIS...THROUGH SHELBY COUNTY...AND JUST NORTHWEST OF TUNICA. SFC LOW IS STILL DEEPENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT HAS LIKELY ENDED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION FOR THE TIME BEING THANKS TO THE LOW. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES AND A SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL 8 PM. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 200 TO 400 J/KG...THE DEEPENING SFC SYSTEM AND WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A MYRIAD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS ALL INSTABILITY IS LOST. THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER. THE KEY TO EVERYTHING IS OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES AND UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME HANDLING THE TEMP PROFILE WITH THIS AIRMASS. THE MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO BRINGS THE BEST THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER TO EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET PULLED INTO THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL TURN RAIN OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES FOR AROUND 1/10 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL HELP TEMPS SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. WE WERE NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN AREAS EAST OF THERE SO NO ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. WE CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE RUC WITH THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THAT IT HAS HANDLED THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES BETTER TODAY. JUST TO NOTE...MODERATE FREEZING RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN WEST PLAINS MISSOURI WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE ADVISORY AREA. THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD AIR WILL COME INTO THE REGION QUICKLY AS THE LOW DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE SAME TIME (EVIDENCE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW.) WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO A LIGHT MIX LATE TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND ANY WINTER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT IN DURATION. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT IS STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENS...MOVES NORTHEAST...AND SENDS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AND WILL RESULT IN A WINDY NIGHT. THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. THINGS CALM DOWN ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE VERY COLD. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FROM 900 TO 850 MB IN THE MORNING TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES. TEMPS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE AROUND -10C...COLD ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SNOW FLURRIES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON...TURNING CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE. ANOTHER CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...SERVING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF/GFS BOTH HINT AT ENOUGH MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE FOR A PASSING SHORTWAVE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 32 37 28 50 / 100 10 10 10 MKL 31 36 24 48 / 100 10 10 10 JBR 28 37 24 46 / 100 10 10 10 TUP 35 43 27 51 / 100 10 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)- MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS. MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT. MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA- LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS- QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION- YALOBUSHA. TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON- HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE- MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY. && $$ JFB tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1058 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006 .UPDATE... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WRAPPING AROUND IT. THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR LBB AS OF 1030 AM AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE MORNING... THEN EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVING SKIES WITH RETURN OF SUNSHINE. VERY CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND CHILL FACTORS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THESE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WITH 40S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE. HAVE LET THE WSW EXPIRE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006/ SHORT TERM... POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SE ACRS NM. WATER VAPOR AND 3H ISOTACHS INDICATE LOW WILL STILL MOVE SE NEXT FEW HOURS AS 120KT 3H JET REMAINS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW NEAR 4 CORNERS REGION. OTHERWISE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NEARING BIG BEND. RADAR/SFC OBS INDICATE SN ACRS SE NM AND NW PB ATTM WITH REPORT OF 1" OF SNOW ON GROUND IN N EDDY CO. ALSO RADAR SHOWS ISOLD-SCT SHSN (MODERATE TO HEAVY) DEVELOPING FARTHER E ACRS CENTRAL/N PB. WRF-80 INDICATES TROPOPAUSE FOLD DOWN THRU 3H WITH 4H-2H EPV VALUES 3-6 SUGGESTING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. RUC LOOKS TO BE THE FARTHEST S SOLN WITH 5H LOW WHICH TRACKS ACRS SE NM/NW PB AND WILL SIDE WITH THAT SOLN. ALSO MODELS ARE DEPICTING BEST 7H WAA ACRS NE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS IS WHY SHSN ARE DEVELOPING ACRS PB ATTM. ISOLD THUNDER SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS THE E. LOOKING AT KMAF VWP WINDS AROUND 7H ARE BACKED ABOUT 20 DEGREES MORE THAN MODELS INDICATE AND THEREFORE EXPECT THAT 7H WAA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODEL FCST. AS SUCH WILL OPT TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS THRU 15Z. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS INCLUDE POTENTIAL NEED FOR UPDATE TO HEAVY SNOW WARNING ACRS N-NE. ATTP WILL OPT TO NOT PLAY THAT CARD UNTIL LATER PRIMARILY BECAUSE POSITION OF 5H LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST A LITTLE TO FAR N AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE E AS OF THIS WRITING ARE TRANSLATING EWD QUICKLY. AFTER 15Z PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE ..HOWEVER THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHSN THRU EARLY P.M.. AS FOR TEMPS MET MOS IS RUNNING ABOUT 9 DEGREES BEHIND MIDNIGHT TEMP AND BASED ON LOW LEVEL CAA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS. SKEPTICAL THAT M30S WILL BE REACHABLE TODAY ACRS PB/SE NM AND WILL DECREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE COLD AIR JUST STARTING THE MOVE THRU THE PASS AND WITH BATDRAW RAWS SHOWING N WINDS 30G44 MPH EXPECT THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS TO DEVELOP THRU GDP AND WILL EXTEND NPW UNTIL 15Z. LONG TERM... WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC ON THE CWA TRANSLATES EASTWARD. SATURDAY WE/LL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TROUGH...BUT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING TEMPERATURES NEARLY AS COLD AS THOSE ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. WHILE NEITHER THE MODELS NOR MOS HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS POINT...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT EITHER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE TIMING MAY BE OFF WITH THE BEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE NOT COMPLETELY COINCIDENT. BEYOND THE FRONT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL TRAIL ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS TWO AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORMS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...JUST LOOKING AT IT TO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP AND MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 34 18 55 25 / 20 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 33 22 56 26 / 10 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 41 25 57 31 / 10 10 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 35 26 59 32 / 10 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 33 26 51 28 / 10 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 34 18 54 22 / 10 0 0 0 MARFA TX 34 12 53 23 / 10 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 33 19 54 25 / 20 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 34 19 55 27 / 10 0 0 0 WINK TX 36 19 59 22 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 49/74 tx