AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST PACKAGE FOR MRNG UPDATE...MAINLY WITH POP/WX/QPF TRENDS. 15Z SFC ANLYS PLACES WEAK CDFNT ACRS NRN WI/SRN MN/SRN SD AND IS XPCD TO ENTER NRN PTNS OF FA THIS AFTN. AMS IS THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR DVLPMT WITH ETA/RUC BOTH SHOWING MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG WITH NIL CIN DRNG PEAK HEATING. ONLY DRAWBACK WL MARGINAL CNVGNC BUT STILL FEEL IT WAS WORTH GOING LOW CHC CATEGORY POPS THIS AFTN AND EVE NRN INTO NERN PTNS 19Z-03Z. SVR POTENTIAL LTD WITH VERY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR BUT FRZG LVL/WET BULB ZEROS SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BORDERLINE PULSE HAIL. COULD BE ISOLD DOWNBURSTS AS WELL WITH SFC-H7/H5 THETA-E LAPSE RATES AOA 24C AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THIS MIXING SHOULD ALSO ALLOW US TO REACH FCST HIGHS IN THE 80S SO NO CHGS TO TEMPS...AND ONLY MINOR CHGS TO WNDS/CLDS TO FIT CURRENT WX. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .UPDATE...WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS 00Z ETA HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND. WILL BE FOLLOWING IT FOR WX/POP/QPF GRIDS WHILE LAMP WILL BE AND IS DOING BETTER WITH TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RAIN COOLED AIR. WILL BE USING IT FOR 3 HOURLY TEMPS AND MIN FORECAST. AS FOR WINDS...NOTHING DOING REAL WELL SO WILL MAKE SOMETHING UP. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT TOMORROWS SEVERE WEATHER. I HAVE LOOKED INTO OUR 3 WIND/DUST STORMS OF LATE AND TOMORROWS SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. BASICALLY STRONG 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AFTER 00Z WITH RAIN COOLED AIR HELPING INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. 850 WINDS ABOUT 25-35 KTS WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FSL RUC II PICKS UP THE WINDS INTO THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY WHICH NONE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS HAVE. ALTHOUGH THE RECENT RAINS WILL LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD DUST POTENTIAL IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TOMORROWS SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT WITH SOME HAIL THROWN IN AS WELL. WILL ALERT MID SHIFT FORECASTER TO THIS FOR INCLUSION INTO HWO PRODUCT. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1255 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... POCKET OF FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION OVER THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST 12HRS OF FCST SEEMS TO CHANGE HOUR BY HOUR, FOCUSING ON TWO MESOSCALE SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR WEST NOW OVER MID MS RIVER VLY: 1) CLUSTER OF TSRA NOW OVER CEN IL BEING FORCED BY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER MO/IA, AND PER RUC FCST, LOOKS TO TRANSLATE E/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENT TRENDS PUT THESE TSRA INTO SRN IND BY SOMETIME AFTER 5 PM. 2) REMNANTS OF MCS OVER MO/AR MAKING PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS KMEM/KPAH, AND WITH STRONG ORGANIZED COLD POOL, SHOULD APPROACH SWRN PARTS OF FA BY AROUND 22 OR 23Z. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS, SHOULD THE BECOME/REMAIN ORGANIZED, HAVE POTL TO PRODUCE HIGH WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH HVY RAINS WITH FRZ LEVELS AGAIN AOA 14 KFT. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL ON 1ST PERIOD POPS/WX CLOSER TO FCST ISSUANCE. THINKING THAT EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE SOME ISO TO SCT TSRA LASTING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH SOME BOUNDARIES LIKELY IN THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON/TUE, SO ISO OR SCT TSRA CAN'T REALLY BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE/ANYTIME. HWVR, CONSENSUS OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVER FA AGAIN MON AFTERNOON, BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO LIFT NWD INTO IN/OH ON TUE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING 500MB WAVE, SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA TUE SHOULD BE ALONG/N OF I-64. INTO WED, ORGANIZED MID TROPOSPHERIC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FA, WITH ZONE OF OPTIMAL LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PUSHING ACROSS SOMETIME WED MORNING. HAVE LEFT POPS IN HIGH CHC CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. NOTE, AREAS THAT DON'T SEEN PCPN MON/TUE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES RISE INTO LOWER 100S. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVG INTO AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WED NITE INTO THURSDAY AFTN...RIDGING AND SFC HI PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FM THE PLAINS THURS AFTN INTO FRI...AND REMAIN THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND...MOVING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLC STATES BY SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THURS...WITH AN INCREASE FRI-SUN TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL (2-4 DEGREES). THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...PRECIP ENDING WED NITE...DRY THURS THRU SAT...LOW CHC OF DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTORMS SUN AS THE RIDGE SLIDE EAST AND BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION THEN. EXTENDED MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...VERY LITTLE DEVIATION BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1001 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 ...MORNING UPDATE... BAND OF TSRA ASSOC WITH PASSING 500MB DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING INTO ERN KY, WITH LESS ACTIVE CONDITIONS OVER REST OF THE FA. SAT PIX SHOWING POCKET OF SUNNY SKIES TO OUR WEST OVER MID MS RIVER VLY, ASSOC WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERALL, WITH THIS PHENOMENON MOVING OVERHEAD, LATEST ENSEMBLES AND RUC SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TODAY, SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC TDS IN THE LOWER 70S, LEADING TO SCT-BKN SKIES. COUPLE FEATURES UPSTREAM TO WATCH HOWEVER: ANY RESULTANT CONVECTION FROM MCS DIVING SEWD INTO AR LOOKS TO REMAIN S OF LMK FA, BUT IF OUTFLOW BDY IS EJECTED THAT MAY SKIM SRN PARTS OF THE FA...AND SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER IA SHOULD PUSH INTO SRN IND BY EVENING, PERHAPS TRIGGERING SOME SCT TSRA ALONG/N OF I-64, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. XXV && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 925 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE NRN TIER CONUS BTWN UPR TROF OVER HUDSON BAY AND UPR RDG AXIS ACRS THE SRN STATES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW NOTED OVER THE ERN U.P....WITH ASSOCIATED 999MB SFC LO MOVING ACRS NRN LK HURON ATTM. ANOTHER SHRTWV OBSVD OVER MN. MOIST CYC LLVL FLOW PRESENT OVER THE FA UNDER THE UPR TROFFING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHRTWVS. 00Z GRB SDNG SHOWS NEAR SATURATION SFC-H6...PWAT 1.68 INCHES...AND A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THRU THE ENTIRE TROP. SFC OBS/IR SAT PIX INDICATE LO CLD EXTENDS N WELL INTO ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY/ 88D COMPOSITE LOOP SUG THE BEST DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/ UPR DVGC AND WDSPRD PCPN HAVE EXITED THE CWA TO THE NE... SCT -SHRA LINGER. RADAR ECHO MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CNTRL CWA IMPACTED BY THE MOIST CYC N FLOW. FOG ALSO OSBVD IN THESE UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT STEADY WIND/MIXING AS WELL AS SOME DRY ADVCTN FM THE N HAS LIMITED REDUCTION OF VSBY. PCPN CHARACTER AT THE NWS OFFICE MORE DZ THAN RA...SUGING DRYING ALOFT DEPICTED ABV H6 ON THE GRB SDNG IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HAVING AN IMPACT. 01Z TEMPS QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...MAINLY ARND 50 NEAR THE LK SUP SHORE TO ARND 60 OVER THE SRN TIER. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE PCPN TRENDS/COVG. BOTH 21Z RUC/18Z ETA SHOW SHRTWVS IN THE UPR GRT LKS MOVING SLOWLY E ACRS THE FA TNGT...WITH ASSOCIATED UPR TROF AXIS OVER ANJ BY 09Z. MODELS SHOW SECOND AXIS OF H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV DPVA INCRSG OVER THE FA THIS EVNG. BUT H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AS IT APPEARS DRY ADVCTN FM THE N (PER FCST H85 DWPT ADVCTN) COUNTERS THE PVA. SO SUSPECT SHRA COVG WL REMAIN ON THE SCT SIDE. PCPN CHCS ALSO WL BE DIMINISHED BY LARGER SCALE H85-7 FRONTOLYSIS FCST BY RUC/ETA AND OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS WITH DOWNSLOPING SFC-H85 NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LO PRES. EXPECT SHRA TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z OVER THE FAR W AND 09Z IN THE CNTRL ZNS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF MN SHRTWV/PVA/H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC. REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA FM FCST GIVEN DRY ADVCTN/LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG/MODEST LAPSE RATES EVEN S OF FA AT GRB. GOING FCST TMINS APPEAR ON TRACK. KC .LONG TERM... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK QUIET WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE AREA. UPSLOPE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE ERN CWA AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EARLY MORNING IN EAST AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. WITH A NORTH WIND FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...50S WILL BE FOUND AT THE SHORE WITH LOWER TO MID 60S WELL AWAY FROM THE SHORE WHICH IS CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE. ETA SHOWING MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR TUE AND WED. ETA ALSO SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I300-I315 SURFACES FOR TUE AND LIFT LASTS ON I290-I295 SURFACES INTO WED MORNING. GFS SIMILAR WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ALSO LIFT AND MOISTURE ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM I300-I330. LIFT IS STRONG AND MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL FROM BOTH GFS AND ETA AND KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN CWA. COLD POOL WITH UPPER LOW COMES ACROSS WED AND KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING. IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONE IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PACIFIC BY 00Z THU. TROUGH AXIS IS PAST CWA BY THEN. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO CWA FOR THU. TROUGHING THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRI AND THEN HEADS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA FOR SAT. ALL MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THIS SCENARIO. CANADIAN MODEL STILL OUTLIER WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF TROUGH EASTWARD AS IT WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO THIS YESTERDAY ALSO AND IS NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS ENSEMBLES PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH 120 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS TO GET NOISY BEYOND THAT WHICH WAS ALSO THE CASE YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FORECAST IS ABOUT AVERAGE. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. KEPT THU DRY AND HAD TO PUT SOME PCPN IN FOR FRI AS TROUGH IS TO THE WEST. KEPT PCPN IN FOR SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MICHELS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... ST DECK ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVEN. LINES UP WELL WITH RUC 925 HIGH RH...WHICH SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA THRU LATE TNGT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BCM MORE NELY. SO NO REASON WHY CLOUDS WL NOT CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD ACRS ERN AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS FM PLAINS CONVECTION SPREADING INTO SWRN AREAS. .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ MBK mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 947 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .DISCUSSION (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)... WILL BASICALLY CLEAN UP WORDING OF ZONES AND TWEAK AFTERNOON INLAND MAXES. PER LATEST RUC AND SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY...UPPER VORT LIFTING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA. IN ITS WAKE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING. ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM A GOOD DOSE OF INSOLATION...AND BASICALLY THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS THE ONLY TRIGGER TO WORK OFF OF EXCEPT FOR ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. IN ALL...20 TO 30 POPS TO PREVAIL. MAX TEMPS OF 90 TO 95 SUPPORTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .AVIATION... MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z. TIMING OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS NOTICEABLE DRYING INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. ALSO...WITH LESS MOISTURE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. SEABREEZE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN 03Z-12Z ALL TERMINALS. WITH VERY WARM GROUND FOG COULD VERY WELL LIFT FOR INTO INTO TEMPO IFR STRATUS LAYER. && .MARINE... LATEST FROM 41013 PLACING SEAS AROUND 3 FT WITH SW WINDS AROUND 13 KT. HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST WILL PERPETUATE LIGHT SW FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTN AND INTO MON. OTHER THAN UPPING SEAS TO 2 TO 3 FT WILL LEAVE CWF AS IS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION: MIKE NOT BETSYS GREAT GREAT GRANDSON ROSS MARINE: TERRY BIGWAVERIDER LEBO PUBLIC: DOUG H NUTS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY WELL ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS. SO WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH ITS SOLUTION OF BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND CLOUDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY)... WILL SEND OUT NEW FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO GET RID OF SEVERE WORDING FOR SW FA...AS WELL AS TO TWEAK BACK CHANCE OF PRECIP TO SLIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT ONLY IN FAR SOUTH. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION TRENDING EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS. COULD STILL GET A BRIEF SHOWER AND LOWER CEILING AS THE STRATIFORM AREA NORTH OF THE CONVECTION MOVES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO MAY PASS BY THE OTHER TAF SITES BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST CIRRUS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES TOWARDS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKING FAIRLY DRY UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 SHORT TERM(TNGT-TUE NGT)... DEEP SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN FA TONIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEN WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...DRIVEN BY SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. RUC DATA BRINGS IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE IL...KEEPING BEST CONVERGENCE MAINLY TO THE SW OF FA. GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVR THIS EVENING WIL BE IN GENERAL CVG AREA...IN THE FORM OF POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO COOL AND DRY AIR ALOFT. AS SEVERE THREAT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...GREATEST CHC FOR LINGERING TSRA WILL BE IN FAR SOUTH AS FRONT HANGS UP HERE AND VORT SKIMS ALONG IT JUST SOUTH OF FA. WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF FA...BEFORE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIAN-REED LONG TERM(WED-MON)... PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 745 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY)... WILL SEND OUT NEW FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO GET RID OF SEVERE WORDING FOR SW FA...AS WELL AS TO TWEAK BACK CHANCE OF PRECIP TO SLIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT ONLY IN FAR SOUTH. && .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION TRENDING EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS. COULD STILL GET A BRIEF SHOWER AND LOWER CEILING AS THE STRATIFORM AREA NORTH OF THE CONVECTION MOVES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO MAY PASS BY THE OTHER TAF SITES BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST CIRRUS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES TOWARDS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKING FAIRLY DRY UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 SHORT TERM(TNGT-TUE NGT)... DEEP SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN FA TONIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEN WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...DRIVEN BY SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. RUC DATA BRINGS IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE IL...KEEPING BEST CONVERGENCE MAINLY TO THE SW OF FA. GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVR THIS EVENING WIL BE IN GENERAL CVG AREA...IN THE FORM OF POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO COOL AND DRY AIR ALOFT. AS SEVERE THREAT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...GREATEST CHC FOR LINGERING TSRA WILL BE IN FAR SOUTH AS FRONT HANGS UP HERE AND VORT SKIMS ALONG IT JUST SOUTH OF FA. WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF FA...BEFORE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIAN-REED LONG TERM(WED-MON)... PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION TRENDING EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE CINCINNATI AIRPORTS. COULD STILL GET A BRIEF SHOWER AND LOWER CEILING AS THE STRATIFORM AREA NORTH OF THE CONVECTION MOVES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO MAY PASS BY THE OTHER TAF SITES BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST CIRRUS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES TOWARDS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKING FAIRLY DRY UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 SHORT TERM(TNGT-TUE NGT)... DEEP SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN FA TONIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEN WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...DRIVEN BY SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. RUC DATA BRINGS IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE IL...KEEPING BEST CONVERGENCE MAINLY TO THE SW OF FA. GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVR THIS EVENING WIL BE IN GENERAL CVG AREA...IN THE FORM OF POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO COOL AND DRY AIR ALOFT. AS SEVERE THREAT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...GREATEST CHC FOR LINGERING TSRA WILL BE IN FAR SOUTH AS FRONT HANGS UP HERE AND VORT SKIMS ALONG IT JUST SOUTH OF FA. WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF FA...BEFORE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIAN-REED LONG TERM(WED-MON)... PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 315 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM(TNGT-TUE NGT)... DEEP SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST AND DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN FA TONIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEN WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...DRIVEN BY SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. RUC DATA BRINGS IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE IL...KEEPING BEST CONVERGENCE MAINLY TO THE SW OF FA. GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVR THIS EVENING WIL BE IN GENERAL CVG AREA...IN THE FORM OF POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO COOL AND DRY AIR ALOFT. AS SEVERE THREAT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...GREATEST CHC FOR LINGERING TSRA WILL BE IN FAR SOUTH AS FRONT HANGS UP HERE AND VORT SKIMS ALONG IT JUST SOUTH OF FA. WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF FA...BEFORE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SECONDARY LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIAN-REED && .LONG TERM(WED-MON)... PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1046 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... RUC SHOWING LIS AS LOW AS -5 BY 17Z THEN UP BY EVENING TO -2 LATER THIS AFTN. CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG BRIEFLY THIS EVNG THEN DIE DOWN DURING THE NIGHT. 85H WINDS AROUND 40 KT THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. 1ST LINE OF PRECIP EXITING OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH NEXT LINE WRN THIRD OF OHIO. WILL ONLY BE UPDATING FOR TEMPS A BIT HIER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW FOR THIS AFTN. REST REMAINS THE SAME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 AVIATION... COULD BE SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG OR HAZE. AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...PUT A 2 HOUR TEMPO FOR THUNDER IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH VFR RAIN SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND FRONT. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... WITH ETA AND GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE LOWLEVEL MOISTURE...SURFACE DEW POINTS 65-69...AND A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ADDED LIFT...CONCUR WITH SPC ABOUT THERE BEING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE ETA CONTINUES TO HINT THERE CAN BE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THIS EVENING...WITH WHICH SPC ALSO SUSPECTS...ASSUMING THERE IS AMPLE HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY...THE ETA MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAN THE GFS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. SO KEPT A CHANCE OF STORMS THEN. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER JET REMAINING FAIRLY ZONAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ALSO STILL SHOWS A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SO POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THEN. AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA LATE WEEK...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD HAVE A DRY PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 952 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WEAK VORT LOBE HAS ALL BUT CLEARED THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ROWAN COUNTY. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND VORT IS LOCKED IN A RACE AGAINST A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS WINNING. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS ABOUT AN HOUR AWAY FROM OUR SOUTHWEST NC MNTN COUNTIES...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE DO NOT WANT TO REMOVE CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALTOGETHER...AS A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT LOBE...OR AS A RESULT OF THE 20-25 KTS OF NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE...BUT WILL PAIR POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...WILL HOLD ON TO A 20 POP EAST OF THE MNTNS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT WITH LOW PW'S AND A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE... DON'T SEE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS OUT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATE...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIORNMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO THE ZFP WILL BE MINIMAL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... KGSP 88-D SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION SETTING UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWFA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT OVER THE REGION AND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM RADARS ALSO INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN BAND ORGANIZING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AIRMASS UNSTABLE NOW AHEAD OF THIS LINE. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY WARM MID LAYERS BUT WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH HEATING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO BREAK ANY CAP...AND THE SOUNDINGS CONFIRM CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY COLD POOLS...AND WE HAVE HEARD OF TREES DOWN UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH STORMS DEVELOPING THERE. WE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEST OF A LINE FROM SPARTANBURG TO GREENWOOD. HIGH CHANCE ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER 02Z...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS GREATLY BUT WE MAY HAVE HAD ENOUGH HEATING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE WEST DEPENDING ON WHAT TRANSPIRES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF A MAJOR VORTICITY CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO BE SENDING A SPRAWLING COLD POOL OUR WAY PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. NEITHER THE RUC...ETA80... ETA40 OR GFS PRODUCES MUCH PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION WITH THIS FEATURE. SUCEEDING SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPDATE EARLY TO INCREASE IF IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL COVER A WIDER AREA. MODELS INSIST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT AS THE TROF AXIS MAKES MORE ENROADS INTO OUR CWFA...BUT DRIER SURFACE AIR MAY BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CAP OFF THE NEW WEEK...AND AFTER SEVERAL COOL DAYS RECENTLY...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. 80S MOUNTAINS TO 90S FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERNIGHT MINS FALLING BACK ONLY INTO THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100 FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY (A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACTUALLY REACH A FORECAST VALUE OF 105 MONDAY) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LEE TROF SHOULD SET UP BUT MOISTURE MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. ANY FRONTS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF RAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO ENHANCE PROSPECTS OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURE COOLDOWN. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE 00Z GFS DEPICTS A SHEARING VORT AXIS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING JUST TO THE NORTH...WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...NEW GUIDANCE RETURNS TO THE RECENT TREND OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BE A BIT MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY...SOME WEAKNESS IS NOTED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...SO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE MEX GUIDANCE IS ACCEPTED. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS...ALTHO HIGH TEMP MIGHT NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. .AVIATION... BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANDLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VC UNTIL TIMING CAN BE ASCERTAINED...AT WHICH POINT TAFS WILL BE AMENDED TO SPECIFY TIME WINDOW...WHICH SHOULD BE NO LONGER THAN TWO HOURS AT ANY SITE. CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZED AHEAD OF VORT LOBE THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. CEILING/VIS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN TSRA. IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE...ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. INTERESTING WRINKLE FOR THE EVENING HOURS IS PROGRESSION OF MCS SEEN MARCHING ACROSS MS RIVER AT 18Z. AIR MASS OVER WEST SHOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MCS TO MOVE RIGHT UP TO THE NC MTNS SOME TIME AFTER 00Z. THIS FEATURE IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE TAFS...BUT COULD BE ADDRESSED IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUPPORT BRINGING IT ACRS THE MTNS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THAT SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ LANE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 906 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM... SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE E. LATEST RUC/MESOETA SHOW SHORTWAVE HELPING TO KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/TO ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY A SMALL POP UNTIL MIDNIGHT... THEN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... IR SATELLITE SHOWS HI/MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER GA/SC. EXPECT PATCHES OF AC/CI THROUGH THE NIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK. DEWPOINTS STILL IN LOWER 70S SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BECOME MVFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOCAL IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AT BUSH FIELD AS RIVER FOG DRIFTS NEAR THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN STORE FOR AREA AS OPPOSED TO PAST FEW WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES...AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AS WELL. FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS AIDED IN PART BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FURTHER WEST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN GA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN TN VALLEY. MAY USE EXTRA PERIOD IN ZONES TO COVER SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR REST OF AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO KEEP 20 POP FOR REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AS AIRMASS DRIES OUT. WILL KEEP 20 POP FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON MAXES PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. WITH FAIRLY HIGH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS...HEAT INDICIES MAY REACH 105 DEGREES EACH DAY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CWA. AS A RESULT...PLAN TO ISSUE SPS TO ADDRESS HIGH HEAT INDICES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED A BIT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY. THINK ETA MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND PREFER GFS SOLUTION KEEP FRONT TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY BUT NOT SURE THIS FAR OUT JUST HOW MUCH FRONT WILL PROGRESS. NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLUMBIA 72 97 74 98 / 20 20 10 20 AUGUSTA 72 97 74 98 / 20 20 10 20 SUMTER 71 97 74 98 / 20 20 10 20 ORANGEBURG 71 97 73 98 / 20 20 10 20 && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ LCV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 233 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... KGSP 88-D SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION SETTING UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWFA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT OVER THE REGION AND OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS. UPSTREAM RADARS ALSO INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN BAND ORGANIZING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AIRMASS UNSTABLE NOW AHEAD OF THIS LINE. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY WARM MID LAYERS BUT WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH HEATING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO BREAK ANY CAP...AND THE SOUNDINGS CONFIRM CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY COLD POOLS...AND WE HAVE HEARD OF TREES DOWN UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH STORMS DEVELOPING THERE. WE WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEST OF A LINE FROM SPARTANBURG TO GREENWOOD. HIGH CHANCE ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER 02Z...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS GREATLY BUT WE MAY HAVE HAD ENOUGH HEATING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE WEST DEPENDING ON WHAT TRANSPIRES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF A MAJOR VORTICITY CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO BE SENDING A SPRAWLING COLD POOL OUR WAY PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. NEITHER THE RUC...ETA80... ETA40 OR GFS PRODUCES MUCH PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION WITH THIS FEATURE. SUCEEDING SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPDATE EARLY TO INCREASE IF IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL COVER A WIDER AREA. MODELS INSIST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT AS THE TROF AXIS MAKES MORE ENROADS INTO OUR CWFA...BUT DRIER SURFACE AIR MAY BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CAP OFF THE NEW WEEK...AND AFTER SEVERAL COOL DAYS RECENTLY...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. 80S MOUNTAINS TO 90S FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERNIGHT MINS FALLING BACK ONLY INTO THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100 FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY (A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACTUALLY REACH A FORECAST VALUE OF 105 MONDAY) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LEE TROF SHOULD SET UP BUT MOISTURE MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. ANY FRONTS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF RAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO ENHANCE PROSPECTS OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURE COOLDOWN. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE 00Z GFS DEPICTS A SHEARING VORT AXIS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING JUST TO THE NORTH...WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...NEW GUIDANCE RETURNS TO THE RECENT TREND OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BE A BIT MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY...SOME WEAKNESS IS NOTED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...SO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE MEX GUIDANCE IS ACCEPTED. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS...ALTHO HIGH TEMP MIGHT NOT BE WARM ENOUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HANDLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VC UNTIL TIMING CAN BE ASCERTAINED...AT WHICH POINT TAFS WILL BE AMENDED TO SPECIFY TIME WINDOW...WHICH SHOULD BE NO LONGER THAN TWO HOURS AT ANY SITE. CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZED AHEAD OF VORT LOBE THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. CEILING/VIS SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT IN TSRA. IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE...ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. INTERESTING WRINKLE FOR THE EVENING HOURS IS PROGRESSION OF MCS SEEN MARCHING ACROSS MS RIVER AT 18Z. AIR MASS OVER WEST SHOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MCS TO MOVE RIGHT UP TO THE NC MTNS SOME TIME AFTER 00Z. THIS FEATURE IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE TAFS...BUT COULD BE ADDRESSED IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUPPORT BRINGING IT ACRS THE MTNS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THAT SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURRUS LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1031 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS CONTINUING TO COVER THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND DENSE CIRRUS AND SOME LOWER CUMULUS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AT PRESENT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE A WEAK VORT MOVING OUT OF EAST TENNESSEE...WITH KGSP 88-D INDICATING A WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATED LONG WAVE TROF POSITION REMAINS TO OUR WEST BUT SHOULD ADVANCE EAST WITH TIME PER 00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUC. NEUTRAL TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AS THE TROF APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRY AIR COULD POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER A TAD. TEMPERATURES RISING STEADILY UNDER THE CLEAR SKY REGIME IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...AND IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD CU LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT COULD OCCUR IN THE SOUTH. STRATUS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SHOULD REVERT TO WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD THERE WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE IN SPACE AND TIME FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...LOWERED MAXES A CATEGORY NORTHEAST AND KEPT THE FAR WEST AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE WARMER MAXES SOUTH RESULT IN MODIFIED CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG AND DECENT LIFTED INDICES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS ACCOMPANYING VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROF MOVES INTO THE CWFA...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO THE SOUTH. WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF CONVECTION INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...ALL OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE SAVANNAH RIVER. POPS WERE TIERED THROUGH THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINING AREAS...WITH LOWEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CELLS TO MOVE ENOUGH TODAY TO PRECLUDE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION...BUT THERE IS ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION TODAY THAN IN DAYS PAST. WILL UPDATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... S/WV TROUGH PASSAGE TO BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO EFFECT THE CWFA TODAY WITH JUST TAIL END OF BETTER FORCING SWINGING ACRS. WILL FLOAT POPS WEST TO EAST AND TIME ROUGHLY ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF WEAK VORT...ENDING THREAT ACRS EASTERN SECTIONS BY MID-EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALSO WILL HAVE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...ALBEIT WEAK...MOVING ACRS...AND WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW IN PLACE...CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HAVE SEEN US DEVELOP SVR TSTMS WITH LESS LIFT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE PAST. DEEPER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE ETA...AND DEVELOPING LLVL WESTERLY FLOW WORKS AGAINST THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO. FOR TONIGHT...A TRANSITION TO FLAT RIDGING GETS UNDERWAY WITH A WNW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OUT AHEAD OF WEAK WAVE...POSSIBLY MCV FROM TODAY/S PLAINS CONVECTION...AND APPROACHES THE MTNS LATE. WILL ENCODE JUST A SLT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO COVER THREAT. UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL S/WV STILL COULD BE A PLAYER AS IT LAYS OVER INTO NC AND WILL LIMIT CHC POPS TO THE NC MTNS/FTHLS WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL WEAK VORT ENERGY TOPS RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF WNW LOWER TO MID LVL FLOW... SO WILL JUST TWEAK POPS UPWARD FOR NW NC BUT STILL LEAVE BELOW SLT CHC FOR NOW. WITH CONTINUED ANTI-CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TUESDAY...NW LLVL FLOW AND LACK OF ANY OBVIOUS TRIGGER... CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO THE NC MTNS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING DAY 4-7 FCST. AVIATION... LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND THIS MORNING ARE ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL TOWARD DEW POINT. RESULT WILL BE SOME IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DAYTIME CLOUDS WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH AN APPROXIMATE HKY... GSP... AND LINE AROUND 00Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF TCU AND CB WITH CEILINGS ABOUT 4 KFT DURING AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED CU AND AC THAT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT... BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER AT NIGHT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE VISIBILITY TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 900 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE PAST HOUR AS THEY MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL TN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A STRONG STORM OVER MCMINN COUNTY AT THIS TIME. AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAN FARTHER WEST AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS OVER. UPDATING FORECAST WHEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT ABOUT 10 PM TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE RUC MODEL CLEARLY SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE RUC AND MESOETA SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS EAST TN LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM. WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 414 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. WEAK VORT APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR ONTARIO/QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TO BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN A COUPLE LOCATIONS. WILL DISCOUNT ITS SLOWER AND DEEPER SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN. BY MID WEEK THE CANADIAN IS MUCH WEAKER/FLATTER THAN EVEN THE ETA WITH THE PATTERN...AND SEEMS UNDERDONE GIVEN THE ENERGY UPSTREAM AND MODEL TRENDS. FOR TODAY...ENERGY OVER WISCONSIN MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. NOT MUCH THERE AND NOT REALLY ANALYZED BY MODELS INCLUDING THE 06Z RUC. HOWEVER THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS VORT EARLIER IN THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION FOR TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE...AND WHILE DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED LIFT IS NOT PRESENT IT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD BE JUST MORNING GIVEN TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO POPS A TAD LONGER GIVEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE BULGING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...HOWEVER THE RUC IS A BIT MORE STABLE. IMAGINE WE COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO START THE MORNING...AND WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH MANY IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN LOW. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT IN THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING. HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE MAKING A STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...AT LEAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEPICTED ACROSS WISCONSIN...WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR. DIFFICULT CALL AS FAR AS PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TODAY. MOISTURE MAKES IT TO DTW AROUND 12Z...AND WE WILL ALSO SEE CU AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOISTURE AND STEEPING LAPSE RATES...AND WILL BRING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY. 00Z RUNS HOLD ON TO MOISTURE LONGER THAN PAST COUPLE...SO WILL SLOW THE TRANSITION TO PARTLY SUNNY TOWARD MORE EVENING. WITH THICKER CLOUDS IN THE FRONT AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... WITH DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE SOUTH NEAR 80 STILL LOOK GOOD WITH MORE SUN AND A WARMER AIRMASS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BRIEF AS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS IS TOO DEEP DUE TO FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN BACK TO A FASTER/MOISTURE MOIST SOLUTION WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE CWA ALONG WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. WITH A BRIEFER RIDGE AND LESS DRYING...NOT SURE HOW MUCH NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED DUE TO MOISTURE CONCERNS. WILL STILL DOWNPLAY PRECIP SPEED A BIT...BRINGING A CHANCE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AND OVER ALL EXCEPT THE THUMB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH WARM FRONT EDGING INTO THE CWA...WILL KEEP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH COLDER AIR AND SURFACE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OUT BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY AND CARRIES OVER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND INTERSECTS THE FRONT...WHERE THE ETA DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX WHICH IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA. COMPLEX APPEARS TO FIRE NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE THUMB BY 09Z. INSTABILITY MAY BE QUESTIONABLE OVERNIGHT /ALTHOUGH GOOD IN THE SOURCE REGION DURING THE DAY/...BUT WIND FIELD IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. WITH 30KT 850MB JET AND BACKED SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT...0-1KM HELICITY IS OVER 300M2/S2 WITH 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 50M/S. ETA SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS IF NOT CATEGORICAL. HOWEVER THIS IS ALL FROM CONVECTION...WITHOUT GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE AS WITH THIS PAST SYSTEM. DPROG/DT SHOW ETA AND GFS BOTH ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND WARM FRONT...LET ALONG PRECIP BULLS-EYES FROM CONVECTION. 48 HOURS OUT STILL LEAVES A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WITH A WESTWARD SHIFT ONLY 50-100 MILES LEAVING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OUT OF THE ACTIVITY. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING...OPTING FOR A MORE DEFINITE SCATTERED WORDING. IF THE SETUP HOLDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE RUNS...WE COULD EASILY SEE MUCH HIGHER POPS. UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID WEEK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS COLD AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOLLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT /ALTHOUGH KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/. COULD SEE SOME PRECIP FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LOW...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO A WARMUP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 343 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED SHRTWV TROUGHS OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN AND MONTANA...WITH A RIDGE INBETWEEN OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV WAS LOCATED NEAR DODGE CITY. SHRTWV TROUGH OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN HELPED BRING RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY...AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE DRIZZLE AND FOG. KMQT RADAR ALSO SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MONTANA AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF JAMES BAY TO LAKE OF THE WOODS ONTARIO. 00Z INL SOUNDING SHOWED THIS MOISTURE...WITH SATURATION FROM 850MB TO 925MB. AT THE SURFACE...A 998 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY WHILE A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS BUILDING ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. BREEZY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE AREAS WITH 15 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 45F TO 50F RANGE...HOWEVER HERE AT THE OFFICE WE ARE 43F AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE COOLING. TODAY...BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH CONTINUING TO PRESS EASTWARD WILL ALLOW ANY -SHRA OVER THE EASTERN U.P. TO END THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE UPSLOPE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO CONTINUE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO WILL BE BRINGING DRIER AIR SOUTH FROM ONTARIO...SO EXPECTING THE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO END IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH TO SOUTH AS LAKE STABILIZATION INCREASES. NOTE THOUGH THAT THIS PROCESS WILL BE SLOW AS THE ETA LOW LEVEL RH PROGS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN U.P. MAY NOT BREAK UP UNTIL 21Z. THIS APPARENTLY IS A RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE BUILDING IN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION (AS SEEN ON THE 00Z INL SOUNDING) GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING COOLER AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TODAY. FWC GUIDANCE FOR MQT IS 55...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE OUR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE SET BACK IN 1969. THIS TEMPERATURE SEEMS REASONABLE. TONIGHT...DIFFERENCES ALREADY BEGIN TO SHOW UP REGARDING THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS...THE CONVECTIVE VORT IS PULLED NORTHEASTWARD. ETA/UKMET/CANADIAN TAKE THE SHRTWV TO NW MISSOURI BY 00Z TUE WHEREAS THE GFS MOVES IT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD TO FORT DODGE IA BY 00Z. TEND TO BELIEVE THE ETA/UKMET/CANADIAN MORE SINCE THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV DURING THE DAY. THIS ADJUSTMENT WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. ETA BRINGS THE SHRTWV UP TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO THE DES MOINES AREA. BACK TOWARDS HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE U.P. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE VORT AND SHRTWV TROUGH. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS/ETA TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO LOOKS LIKE A COOL NIGHT. MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS NEAR 40 FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS WHICH LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY...ETA/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE VORT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH UP TO MILWAUKEE BY 00Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES INTO MN. DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM A 60-70KT JET AT 250MB MOVING UP THROUGH WI WILL HELP CREATE A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIPITATION BAND GOES IS THE QUESTION... AND THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE GOING FORECAST...AND KEEP LOWEST POPS IN THE 30S OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE BUT WITH SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 2C...THERE WILL NOT BE MANY OF THEM. WITH ONLY SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...THOUGH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES OVER WISCONSIN AT 12Z WED AND OVER THE EASTERN U.P. BY 00Z THU....WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP TO GEORGIAN BAY...VERY SIMILAR TO THIS PAST SYSTEM. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH IF SOME SUN CAN OCCUR...HOWEVER 500MB TEMPS ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT (-14C). WILL LEAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING. ACTUALLY...GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY AND CYCLONIC...MAY SEE UPSLOPE DRIZZLE/FOG AGAIN. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP THINGS COOL AGAIN. MET GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AGAIN 55 TO 60 LIKE TODAY...AND HAVE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST IT. RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARQUETTE IS 59 SET IN 1995. SHRTWV TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW HEAD SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT RUNS INTO RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE EVENING...THEN FLOW BEGINS TURNING ANTICYCLONIC AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE BUILDING AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE EVEN MORE EVIDENT ON THURSDAY AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES FURTHER AWAY. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER THEY WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LOOK GOOD. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN U.P. AND ALONG THE WESTERN U.P./LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COOLER. NO CHANGES AGAIN IN FORECAST. BEYOND THURSDAY...MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA FRI WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 16-18C PER GFS/ECMWF. MORE HUMID WEATHER TOO AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING UP HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOTICED 00Z GFS SURFACE DEWPOINT FIELD BRINGING 70F DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI. ANY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE ON THE DAY ON FRI ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS PER 18Z GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF AND 00Z GFS...SO SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN. FOR NOW WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE LATER ON. NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 610 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING (10Z). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON (16Z)...THEN TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL THIS EVENING (00Z). THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (06Z-12Z). WITHOUT MUCH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND UPR LVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE WILL ONLY BE ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS...WILL NOT PLACE THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION (THEY WILL BE OF THE PULSE-TYPE VARIETY) OTHERWISE...SCT TO LCLY BKN CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...A 925 MB TO 850 MB LOW LVL JET IS FCST TO DEVELOP. ALSO...A S/WV IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...SINCE THE COVERAGE IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT...HAVE OPTED FOR THE CB WORDING IN THE KDAY...KILN AND KCMH TAFS (AS THESE WILL BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT) BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z. LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE CHANCES AS THEY WARRANT. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... COMPACT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKENING SOME THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA SHORTLY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART SO WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. ETA AND RUC BOTH SHOWING WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THINK MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP AND WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING...BELIEVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AS WEAK S/W ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH 20-30 POPS. WARM FRONT THEN REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARMER AIR/HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK UP INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A 20-30 POP ACROSS THE SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN CHANCE WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRETTY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AT 850 MB. HEAT INDICES MAY BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT OF A PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90 AND DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. FOR NOW THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. JGL && .LONG TERM(WED-MON)... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT JUL 4 2004. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 435 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... COMPACT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKENING SOME THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA SHORTLY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART SO WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. ETA AND RUC BOTH SHOWING WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THINK MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP AND WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING...BELIEVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AS WEAK S/W ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH 20-30 POPS. WARM FRONT THEN REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARMER AIR/HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK UP INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A 20-30 POP ACROSS THE SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN CHANCE WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRETTY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AT 850 MB. HEAT INDICES MAY BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT OF A PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90 AND DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. FOR NOW THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. JGL && .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON CONVECTION ACRS S CNTRL INDIANA. LOOKING AT THE RUC40...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK 925 MB LOW LVL JET IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LVL JET AND ASSOCD LOW LVL CONV IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW OHIO AND NRN KY BY 06Z...THEN INTO S CNTRL OHIO AND N CNTRL KY BY 09Z. AS A RESULT...WILL PLACE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS. THE REMAINING OF THE TAFS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IF RAIN DOES OCCUR AT KCVG AND KLUK...THEN FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM 12Z THROUGH 00Z...WITH ONLY DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM(WED-MON)... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT JUL 4 2004. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1255 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON CONVECTION ACRS S CNTRL INDIANA. LOOKING AT THE RUC40...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK 925 MB LOW LVL JET IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LVL JET AND ASSOCD LOW LVL CONV IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SW OHIO AND NRN KY BY 06Z...THEN INTO S CNTRL OHIO AND N CNTRL KY BY 09Z. AS A RESULT...WILL PLACE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS. THE REMAINING OF THE TAFS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IF RAIN DOES OCCUR AT KCVG AND KLUK...THEN FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM 12Z THROUGH 00Z...WITH ONLY DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY WELL ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS. SO WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH ITS SOLUTION OF BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM(WED-MON)... PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 355 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .AVIATION... LAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH NOW WITH THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... THE RUC AND ETA MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT HUMIDITY TO KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE ETA SHOWS A TAD MORE LIFT AND INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUED THEN. AFTER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 60 THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER JET SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...66 SHORT TERM...GIORDANO(11) LONG TERM...11 pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 312 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE SHARPLY THERE AFTER. WEAK RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS REGION WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO CWA TODAY. GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FASTER WITH NEXT SYSTEM THAN OTHER MODELS. AS A RESULT...GFS TAKES TIGHT SYSTEM UP THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...WHILE ETA BRINGS SYSTEM TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BOARDER. AM TRENDING TOWARD ETA/UKMET SOLUTION SINCE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY BASED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND RUC MODEL. ETA SOLUTION PRODUCES MORE WATER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME OVER CWA THAN GFS...SINCE ITS SLOWER MOVING AND TRACK WOULD FAVOR HEAVIER PCPN ACROSS CWA THAN GFS. NGM IS CLOSER TO ETA SOLUTION...BUT IS SLOWER STILL. WILL START SPREADING RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 00Z...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. TROUGH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO HANG BACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH CWA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE IN TRACK AND DYNAMICS. SHORT WAVE AND COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ASSIST LINGERING SURFACE AND 850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. && .MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1035 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS FOR MRNG UPDATE WERE TSTM TRENDS AND SVR WX POTENTIAL. UPR LVL TROF PUSHING THRU HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK/MOD SPEED MAX ROUNDING BASED THRU KS TWRD IA. CONVECTIVELY EHNANCED SHRT WV OVER SERN NE APCHG WITH DPVA AIDING GENERAL UVM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN DEEP QG FORCING FM IA TRAILING INTO WRN MO AND SERN KS. VISBLE STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLR SLOT AHD OF SHRT WV JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER FAR SWRN IA ATTM WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING IT TWRD I80 CORRIDOR ARND NOONTIME. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH PRESENT LOCATION OF WEAK WRMFNT EXTENDING EWD FM TRIPLE POINT INVOF KOMA/KTQE PER 15Z SFC ANLYS. FEEL 12Z RUC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ETA HAVE UNDERESTIMATED INSTABILITY AND NWD EXTENT OF WRM SECTOR. FEEL AFOREMENTIONED LRGR SCALE LIFT AND CNVGNC ALG BNDRY WL BE ENOUGH TO FIRE TSTMS DRNG PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN. IF YOU BRING ETA MLCAPES A BIT FARTHER N...THAT WOULD SUPPORT VALUES ARND 2000 J/KG. DEEP SHEAR MAY INCR SOMEWHAT AS WEAK SPEED MAX ROTATES NEWD...LIKELY ENOUGH FOR SOME SUPERCELLS BUT PROBABLY NOT SUSTAINED. THIS WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK TORNADOES ALG BNDRY HWVR WITH 0-3KM CAPES ALREADY 50 J/G AND 0-1KM SHEAR 20 KTS AHD OF TRIPLE POINT. THUS HAVE HIT SVR WORDING IN FCST SUITE A BIT HARDER WITH HAIL...WND...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. HVY RAINS CERTAINLY A CONCERN AS WELL WITH 0-2KM MSTR TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO BNDRY ARND 21Z. TSTMS COULD RMN ANCHORED ALG BNDRY AHD OF SHRT WV. LTL CHG TO OTHER ELEMENTS OUTSIDE OF FIT TO CURRENT WX. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1154 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE ALREADY OUT. CLOUD COVER WAS THE BIG ISSUE THIS MORNING. MOSTLY A RESULT OF A S/WV THAT SHOWS UP NICELY IN RUC AND MESOETA 700MB HEIGHT FIELDS. RESULTING LIFT THAT SHOWS UP ON 310K ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRAT...THAT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS OF AROUND 15Z. THESE CLOUDS WERE A BIT OF A SETBACK WITH TEMPS...WHICH WERE LOWERED A BIT IN THE GRIDS...AND ENDED UP BEING ABOUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN 6Z MAVMOS. RESULT IN GRIDS WAS TO LOWER A RANGE OR TWO/OPENING UP A RANGE OR TWO. WENT WITH /BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY/ WORDING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 440 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 DYING COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AS S/WV/VORT IDENTIFIED WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE...RELYING TOTALLY ON HEATING FOR A TRIGGER. MCS ACTIVITY OUT IN THE PLAINS WILL OF COURSE NEED TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR...HOWEVER TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE TO EITHER WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING...RIDE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY OR SOUTH OF OUR AREA WHERE RICHEST THETA E AIR IS LOCATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN CREATING PHANTOM PRECIP OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEMORY SERVES TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE BIG PICTURE OF AN OVERALL WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS TO 20 FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BARRING ANY STORM SCALE ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY AT OR LESS THAN 95 FOR TODAY. TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS ON TAP FOR THE AREA. WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HWO. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW JUST FOR THE FACT THAT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...HOWEVER WITH GOOD INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL STILL MENTION A SMALL CHANCE IN THE HWO FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 FOR MOST. DESPITE OVERALL WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...STILL THINK A GOOD CHANCE IS WARRANTED AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH HELPED TRIGGER NEARLY LIKELY COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA YESTERDAY. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. LEFT EXTENDED INTACT. 540 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CRUISING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EAST KENTUCKY IS RIGHT IN THE MIDST OF THIS SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR WITH A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT DRAGGING WEST...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WENT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL ...STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE OF MCSS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE. EAST KENTUCKY IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY WATCH BOXES ENJOYING A NICE DRY SLOT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE DUE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER AFTER SUNSET WHICH MAY LIMIT THEIR PUNCH AND/OR AREAL EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING. COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUILDING INSTABILITY DOWN STREAM OF THE CURRENT MCSS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL BOXES OVER PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY IN A FEW HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE FAIRLY ACTIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN. WHILE A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA A COUPLE OF OPEN...BUT STRONG...WAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL EASE PAST KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SOME RIDGING THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MID WEEK BEFORE THE STRONGER TROUGH GOES THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS LAST TROUGH THEN THE ETA. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO ITS MISHANDLING OF A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES THAT COMES OUT OF MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT AND SEEMS TO DRAG THE TROUGH EAST TOO QUICKLY. THE ETA ALSO SEES THIS VORT...BUT IS MORE REASONABLE...QUICKLY WEAKENING IT WHILE MOVING THE MAIN TROUGH MORE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS AND EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THIS...THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SETTING UP A FEW DAYS OF HOT AND... PROBABLY...DRY WEATHER. THE RIDGE THEN WEAKENS A BIT BY SUNDAY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO RETURN TO EAST KENTUCKY WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF DAYS DOMINATED BY CONVECTION ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE TO CONVECTION. THIS EVENING WILL BE INTERESTING AS THE DIURNAL TREND COMPETES WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HEADING FOR EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS ON OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST BORDER COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE A CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING...MONDAY...WITH RENEWED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AND ALSO CLOSER TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH MORE CONVECTION IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO HAVE CONVECTION DRIVEN MORE BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SFC HIGH LOOKS TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY EVEN SEE SOME LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THE MOS TEMP NUMBERS CAME IN FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DEVIATION NEEDED FOR NIGHT TIME TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. FOR HIGHS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND STEAMY RH. DID UNDERCUT THE HIGH AT SME A DEGREE...SAVING THE 90S THERE FOR TUESDAY. FOR POPS ALSO DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR AS THE MESOSCALE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENNED UP BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. AS FOR IFPS GRIDS AND GRAPHICS...RAN MY USUAL POPULATION FROM THE MESOETA THROUGH 60 HOURS FOR TEMPS...DEWPOINT AND WINDS. THESE WERE FAIRLY DECENT...JUST HAD TO ADD SOME TOPOGRAPHIC DRIVEN LOCAL EFFECTS FOR MAXES AND MINS. ALSO ADDED MORE OF A DIURNAL EFFECT TO THE WINDS...WHILE LIMITING THE HIGHER SPEEDS. THE REST OF THE GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH THE SKY COVER RECEIVING THE MOST ADJUSTMENTS EARLY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MESOETA LAYER RH FORECAST. IN THE EXTENDED...CONTINUED THE TREND OF A DRY AND HOT PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FURTHER KNOCKING DOWN SKY COVER AND POPS. 1240 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004 UPDATE ALREADY OUT...MAINLY TO JUST FRESHEN WORDING IN THE ZONES. GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AS FAR AS TIMING WITH PRECIP FIELD. ONLY A SLIGHT TWEAK HERE AND THERE IN FIRST PERIOD...AND FIRST PART OF TONIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH. SETBACKS WERE FORESEEN IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...BUT TEMPS ALREADY REBOUNDING NICELY BEHIND THE FRONT EDGE OF MAV VORT LOBE. && .JKL...NONE. && $$ PIEPER ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 655 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... DID NOT MAKE VERY MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME RIDGING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. 00Z SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY DRY AND PW VALUES WERE AROUND 1.5 AROUND THE REGION. AGREE SOME STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF ZONES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE COAST...SO EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INLAND AND AFFECT SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. ETA/GFS WERE BOTH SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO ABOUT 20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED 50 POPS NORTH IN THE MORNING AND CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE 500MB HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MAY SHIFT BACK AND FORTH A FEW TIMES IN THE SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK UPPER WINDS AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE AN ISSUE. TEMPS WERE GOOD...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S...RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO. FOR THE EXTENDED...DID MAKE MANY CHANGES. RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING...SO LOWERED EVERYBODY TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN TEMPS WERE OK...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ON GOING RAIN...SO THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO MAINTAIN LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TWEAKED THE POPS/TEMPS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED. && PRELIMINARY NUMBERS JAN GB 093/073 092/073 091 112 MEI GB 093/072 092/071 091 113 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 938 AM EDT MON JUL 05 2004 .UPDATE... MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 AM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LAKE HURON ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER WAVE WAS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY NOT CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. RUC AND MESOETA MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENING OVER AREAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z...WITH 850MB THETA-E AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY CAPPED IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE MESOETA MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...PRUDENT TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THAT AREA BEING CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 80 AT SYR...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 55KT 300MB JET MOVING THROUGH THERE LATE IN THE DAY. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT SEVERE RISK EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THIS APPEARS GOOD. WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER BASED ON RUC AND MESOETA LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS AND THE CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT WILL NOT TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN MUCH AS READINGS ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES AND ANY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... MOTHER NATURE PRODUCED HER OWN "FIREWORKS" ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK SUNDAY AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS METRO BUFFALO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY EVENING. A RECORD 2.19 INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED AT THE BUFFALO-NIAGARA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AS THESE STORMS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN MICHIGAN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH OUR FA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SET OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ETA KEEPS THE SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS. BUT...THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ABOVE 700 MB (SEEN ON THE 00Z KDTX SOUNDING) AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT (AND STRONGER) MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO OUR EAST...BUT IF THE FRONT IS DELAYED...STRONG CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES. THE MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE WILL HELP TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE IN METRO BUFFALO. THE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND 00Z...BUT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING INTO NEW YORK STATE WILL BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE NEXT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE LINGERS BEHIND TO KEEP THE THREAT GOING INTO THURSDAY. THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST TO OUR WEST LATE SUNDAY, BUT THE GFS HAS HAD TROUBLE WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, SO TIMING AND LOCATION ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE BEFORE THE WEEKEND ARRIVES. && .AVIATION... THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF SUNDAY EVENING HAVE BECOME MORE SCATTERED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A FEW WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AND VSBYS OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY VFR...BUT THEY WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN HAZE AND LOWER CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MONDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH BKN CIGS AND GOOD VISIBILITIES...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS ACCORDINGLY. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME HAZE AS DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S AND IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY...15 TO 25 KTS...IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...AT ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KJHW. && .HYDROWISE... A HOT HUMID JULY 4 ENDED WITH A BANG ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT SEVERE...BUT THE BIG STORY WERE THE TWO DELUGES WHICH FOCUSED ON THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AROUND 8 PM AND 11 PM. THE DAILY TOTAL OF 2.19 INCHES AT THE AIRPORT SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY NEARLY AN INCH AND WAS THE HEAVIEST ONE DAY RAINFALL AT BUFFALO IN OVER TEN YEARS! BRIEF URBAN FLOODING WAS REPORTED...BUT MANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS WERE SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE DOWNPOURS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON LAKE ERIE BUFFALO TO RIPLEY AND NIAGARA RIVER. $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DJF AVIATION...APB ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 740 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... WILL ISSUE QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF AFTERNOON FOR POPS. RUC SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CU ARE BUILDING AND SPROUTING SHOWERS ALREADY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. CRM && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS KY/TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT WESTWARD ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS RESULTED IN DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW...CONFINING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. THUS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THINK COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SMALL GIVEN MOISTURE LIMITATIONS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S WHICH WILL BE REACHED EARLY-MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG WITH WEAK INLAND TROUGH. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR INLAND GIVEN THE OPPOSING FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 F. DO NOT THINK WE WILL REACH THE TIME DURATION CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY AND SOME QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR INLAND GIVEN THE DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW. IN LIEU OF AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MENTION HIGH HEAT INDICES IN THE ZONES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT AND HEIGHTS WILL NUDGE UPWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUE...AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY. NOT MUCH POTENTIAL/SUPPORT FOR POPS TUE THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HEAT INDICES GIVEN PROJECTED VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME ANY LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY HINDER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE COULD REMAIN ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THINK THE GFS PUSHES A BOUNDARY TOO FAR SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE. && .AVIATION... COUPLED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PREVENTED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING AS THEY HAVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO ALL BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. AS A RESULT CONVECTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND THEREFORE WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THE TAF/S. && .MARINE... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TODAY...THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN ITS WAKE. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN RATHER LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE SW FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. OBSERVATIONS FROM FRYING PAN SHOALS CONTINUE TO REPORT 3 FT SEAS...PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF A LONG PERIOD SE SWELL. WAVEWATCH III INDICATES THAT THIS SWELL MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND WAVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...SEAS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM: PFAFF AVIATION/MARINE: JAQ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... UPPER AIR MAP HAS EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER ILN CWA...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE CHART HAS FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. TODAY'S PROBLEM INVOLVES MOVEMENT OF CURRENT CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ACTIVITY. EXISTING TSRA OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS ARE MOVING SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT THEY WOULD PROBABLY NOT GET HERE UNTIL THIS EVENING. UPPER FLOW WOULD LIKELY DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF HERE. ALSO...TSRA ARE BEGINNING TO OUTRUN UPPER SUPPORT...WITH MAIN VORT MAX PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE...ANY TSRA WE GET THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE OF THE POP UP VARIETY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WILL UPDATE CURRENT FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTH...WHILE RETAINING DRY FORECAST IN THE NORTH WHERE STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON LONGER. TEMP FORECAST STILL GOOD WITH PERSISTENCE WORKING IN THIS SLOWLY CHANGING SUMMER PATTERN. CONIGLIO && .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING (10Z). THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON (16Z)...THEN TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL THIS EVENING (00Z). THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (06Z-12Z). WITHOUT MUCH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND UPR LVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE WILL ONLY BE ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS...WILL NOT PLACE THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION (THEY WILL BE OF THE PULSE-TYPE VARIETY) OTHERWISE...SCT TO LCLY BKN CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...A 925 MB TO 850 MB LOW LVL JET IS FCST TO DEVELOP. ALSO...A S/WV IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...SINCE THE COVERAGE IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT...HAVE OPTED FOR THE CB WORDING IN THE KDAY...KILN AND KCMH TAFS (AS THESE WILL BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT) BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z. LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE CHANCES AS THEY WARRANT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 435 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... COMPACT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKENING SOME THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA SHORTLY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART SO WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. ETA AND RUC BOTH SHOWING WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THINK MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP AND WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING...BELIEVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AS WEAK S/W ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH 20-30 POPS. WARM FRONT THEN REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARMER AIR/HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK UP INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A 20-30 POP ACROSS THE SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN CHANCE WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRETTY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AT 850 MB. HEAT INDICES MAY BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT OF A PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90 AND DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. FOR NOW THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. JGL && .LONG TERM(WED-MON)... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT JUL 4 2004. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 906 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... WILL BE SENDING OUT A MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON IN MY SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TDS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SPARK ACTIVITY. CU IS ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH IN AND NW OH AND OVERNIGHT RUNS ARE INDICATING UL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK JET MAX. AIR BECOMES MOST UNSTABLE ACROSS MY SOUTHERN HALF...SO FOR NOW INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS ONLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 AVIATION... LAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH NOW WITH THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOME MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... THE RUC AND ETA MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT HUMIDITY TO KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE ETA SHOWS A TAD MORE LIFT AND INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUED THEN. AFTER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 60 THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER JET SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1035 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE BEGINNING TO THIN. IN ADDITION...LATEST RUC SUGGESTS MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE WEST OF OUR CWFA. FOR THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THUS...JUST SENT AND UPDATE TO REMOVE FIRST PERIOD POPS... TO ADJUST FIRST PERIOD CLOUDS...AND TO ADJUST POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH OF HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES AT 6 AM...MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE BIG COUNTRY. 04 UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS WERE WEAKENING ON SOUTHERN END...BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND ASPERMONT AT 3 AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE STILL IN THE 66 TO 70 RANGE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. SOME STRATUS WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG I-10 FROM OZONA TO JUNCTION. STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE GFS/ETA MODELS DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. GFS MODEL INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO...THEN WASH OUT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. FAIRLY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY WITH LIFTING INDEXES OF -5 TO -8 AND CAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG IN THROCKMORTON COUNTY. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS BREAK THE CAP. DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG COUNTRY...AND LOOKS JUSTIFIED. ATMOSPHERE TO REMAINS UNSTABLE INTO WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY...SO LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME REMOTE BY LATE WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/HUBER tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 915 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE GULF HIGH. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS MORNINGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.47 INCHES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE 24 HOURS EARLIER WAS 1.07 INCHES. THESE VALUES CONFIRM THAT THE MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE FURTHER BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WILL DECREASE NIGHT-TIME WINDS OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. && .MARINE...12Z RUC IS SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS TO PAST ETA RUNS IN DEPICTING A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN GULF BY 2100 UTC. BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT ISABEL...BIRD ISLAND...AND BAFFIN BAY...APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER 10 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST WITH WIND OBSERVATIONS AT 42020 AROUND 15 KNOTS. BASED ON THE PROGGED STRENGTHENING OF GRADIENT...WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. MINOR UPDATES NEEDED TO GRIDS/CWF. && .AVIATION...BAND OF STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN HIDALGO...WESTERN BROOKS AND EASTERN JIM HOGG COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN MFE THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT HRL AND BRO...ALTHOUGH CUMULUS FIELD MAY DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY AT HRL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPTIC...63 MARINE/AVIATION...51 MESO...VEGA THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... FCST ON TRACK FOR A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS SUPPORTED BY DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT...AND WELL INTO THE 80S HERE IN THE NRV. CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE A WEST WIND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT LEE TROF IS IN PLACE AND ANTICIPATE A VERY WARM AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... THE 06Z GFS AND 09Z RUC INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT ELSE WHERE. UPPER SUBSIDENCE IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS CROSSING THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...SO RUC/GFS FCSTS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE ERN PART OF THE CWA WILL BE THE LAST TO EXPERIENCE MID/UPR SUBSIDENCE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MID LEVEL DRYING COMING ACROSS KY...SO ONCE IT GETS HERE EXPECT IT TO SQUASH ANY ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE CWA...REPRESENTING MORE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ATTM FEEL COVERAGE SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN WIDELY SCT WITH GREATEST THREAT IN THE FAR ERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE LEE TROF MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO FIRE A FEW STORMS THERE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 AVIATION... INCRG WLY DOWNSLOPE WNDS SHD RESULT IN RAPID LIFTING AND DISSIPATION OF ANY PTCHY FG WHICH LINGERS INTO MID MRNG HRS...TO BE FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF CU/SC AS LOW LVL MOIST BCMS TRAPPED UNDER STRENGTHENING MID LVL SUBSIDENCE CAP ARND 9K FT. DESPITE STRENGHTENING CAP FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WK SHRT WV TROF ALFT THIS MRNG...SUFFICIENT WRMG IN LWR LVLS OF ATMOS DURG THIS AFTN DUE TO WRMG DOWNSLOPE WNDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF CAP TO SPARK THE GENERATION OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT TSTMS EAST OF BLUE RDG OVR PIEDMONT...MAINLY AFT 18Z. WLY UPSLOPE WINDS OVR XTRM W AND SWRN AREAS MAY HELP TO SPARK SIMILAR EVENT OVR MTNS DESPITE COOLER AFTN TEMPS. DO NOT XPCT TSTM COVERAGE TO BE MORE THEN 10-20% IN ANY AREA THIS AFTN INTO ERY EVNG...THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FM MENTION IN TAF SITES. ANY THREAT OF PCPN SHD END BY MID EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME PTCHY FG PSBL AGN TUE MRNG IN LWR SHELTERED VLYS DUE TO RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...LGT SFC WNDS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT FOR OCCURRANCE SHD BE LESS THAN THAT OF THIS MRNG...SO PREVAILING VSBYS TUE MRNG SHD BE AT LEAST COMPARABLE OR HIR THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG EAST COAST HAS LEFT RNK CWA UNDER RELATIVELY CLR SKIES DUE TO WAKE SUBSIDENCE. MCLEAR SKIES...LGT SFC WNDS...AND MOIST GRND FM EARLIER PCPN HAS RESULTED IN DVLPMNT OF PTCHY FG. EXPECT TO SEE FG LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MRNG AS INCRG INSOLATION AND WLY WNDS ALFT MIX OUT LWR MOIST LYR. NXT WK SHRT WV TROF MOVG EWD AT 25 KTS THRU CNTRL KY AT 0630 UTC NOT ACCOMPANIED BY ANY CONVECTION AS ANTICIPATED BY 0000 UTC MODELS XCP FOR TSTM COMPLEX ENTERING SWRN OH...WHICH WL RMN WELL TO NW OF AREA. AXIS OF SHRT WV XPCTD TO MOV EWD AND ENTER RNK CWA ARND 1300 UTC... THEN PASS E OF RNK CWA BY 1800 UTC. THIS WL PLACE RNK AREA IN AREA OF INCRG SUBSIDENCE...WITH REFLECTION EVIDENT ON FCST SOUNDINGS BY INCRG MID LVL CAP ARND 700 MB LVL. STG INSOLATION DURG DAY SHD RESULT IN WARMER AFTN TEMPS MOST AREAS TDY...WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUFFICIENT TO MARGINALLY BREAK CAP BY MID AFTN ACRS PIEDMONT...RESULTING IN ISOLD-WDLY SCT TSTM POTNL. WK UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH MOIST ATMOS RMNG IN PLACE SHD SUPPORT DVLPMNT OF WDLY SCT-SCT TSTMS BY ERY AFTN ACRS WRN RDGS. HOWEVER... ORGANIZED PCPN EVENT AT THIS POINT APPEARS UNLIKELY...WITH MOST AREAS RMNG DRY THRU AT LEAST TNGT. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NXT PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF FCST TO LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO UPR GREAT LAKES TUE INTO THU...PULLING WRM FNT NEWD THRU RNK CWA TUE INTO TUE NGT...WITH A CDFNT TO FOLLOW ON WED NGT. WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND LOW LVL FORCING RMNG TO NW OF RNK AREA WITH PASSAGE OF WRM FNT...HIST THREAT OF ANY PCPN ON TUE SHD BE ACRS WRN AND NWRN PTNS OF RNK CWA. ARRIVAL OF CDFNT ON WED SHD PLACE ENTR FCST AREA UNDER HIR CHC POPS TIL FROPA DURG ERY THU MRNG. SOME QUESTION RMNS AS TO HOW FAR S THIS FNT CAN PUSH CONSIDERING THAT UPR RDG WL BGN TO RPDLY REBUILD OVR SERN STATES THU NGT INTO FRI. CURR FCST THINKING IS THAT FNT WL BCM QSTNRY JUST TO OUR S ON THU...AND CLOSE ENF TO CONT WITH LOW THREAT POPS ACRS SERN PTNS OF RNK CWA. WL HOLD ON TO CURR FCST THINKING THAT PCPN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH FNT WL BE FAR ENF S OF CWA ON FRI TO MAINTAIN DRY FCST. HOWEVER... WL AGN BRING LOW THREAT POPS NWD INTO ALL OF CWA OVR WEEKEND AS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SPRDS NWD INTO AREA WITH BLDG UPR RDG. AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND CLEARING WAS IN PROGRESS. MODELS SUGGEST WESTERLIES JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 20 KTS. METARS FROM HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN THE CWFA...KHPS AND KGEV...WERE SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 18KTS AT 0500Z. AS THESE WESTERLIES PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWFA...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ENTRAINMENT TO THE BOUNDARY LEVEL TO ALLOW VSBYS TO DROP ONLY INTO THE IFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT. WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOR TODAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY...SHD MOVE EAST OF AREA BY ERY AFTN. DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY MAKE ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE VERY TRICKY IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. BETTER MIXING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY SHOULD BRING SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AROUND KROA. MONDAY NIGHT WHAT CLOUDS DO DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND AS THE LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 615 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY JUST EAST OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...CONNECTED TO ANOTHER CORE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA... LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A LONG LIVED...BOW STRUCTURE MCS IS CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. THE WORST OF THE STORMS ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...TARGETING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A DECENT COLD POCKET OF RAIN PUSHING THE MCS FOLLOWS THE STORMS AND WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND WET INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS THAT PASS THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST OF THESE IS PASSING THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING NOSING UP FROM THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH THEN ROLLS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKES OVER QUIETING THINGS DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY...THOUGH...THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT ACROSS OHIO ALLOWING FOR MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE EARLY EVENING MCS CARVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...POSSIBLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR. A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL TRAILS THE LEAD STORMS AND WILL SERVE TO SUSTAIN THEM A BIT LONGER...THOUGH. FOLLOWING THIS THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAK UP AND THE AIR MASS RECOVERS...WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FORECAST ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. ANY MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE ILL HANDLED IN THE MODELS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE WORKING IN ON TUESDAY AND THE MODELS DOWN PLAYING THE PCPN POSSIBILITY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT A LULL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS HANDLED BETTER BY THE MODELS THEN 24 HOURS AGO...SO CONFIDENCE IS BETTER FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE PROMISES TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. IN ADDITION...RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A QUICK MODERATION IN TEMPS WITH HOT AND GRADUALLY HUMID WEATHER MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A DIURNAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOS TEMP CAME IN CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DEVIATION... EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS WHERE THE FWC NUMBERS ARE A BIT WARM GIVEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. DID KEEP MAXES DEGREE OR SO BELOW MOS CONSENSUS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. FOR POPS THESE WERE BASICALLY A CRAP SHOOT WITH THE MODELS OUT TO LUNCH FROM THE START WITH THIS MCS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING THEM DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WENT WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL TREND TO POPS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THEN UPPED THEM TO GOOD CHANCE FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR IFPS GRIDS AND GRAPHICS...RAN MY USUAL POPULATION FROM THE MESOETA THROUGH 60 HOURS FOR TEMPS...DEWPOINT AND WINDS. THESE WERE FAIRLY DECENT EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...JUST HAD TO ADD SOME TOPOGRAPHIC DRIVEN LOCAL EFFECTS FOR MAXES AND MINS FOR MOST PERIODS. DID MASSIVELY ADJUST THE RAIN COOLED MAXES FOR WEDNESDAY FROM THE MESOETA...UP CLOSER TO MAV AND MET MAXES. THE REST WERE IN THE BALL PARK THOUGH. THE OTHER GRIDS WERE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH THE MOST WORK NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM TO DEAL WITH THE INCOMING MCS. HARDLY HAD TO CHANGE THE REMAINDER AS THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRONT FOR MIDWEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1154 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 UPDATE ALREADY OUT. CLOUD COVER WAS THE BIG ISSUE THIS MORNING. MOSTLY A RESULT OF A S/WV THAT SHOWS UP NICELY IN RUC AND MESOETA 700MB HEIGHT FIELDS. RESULTING LIFT THAT SHOWS UP ON 310K ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRAT...THAT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS OF AROUND 15Z. THESE CLOUDS WERE A BIT OF A SETBACK WITH TEMPS...WHICH WERE LOWERED A BIT IN THE GRIDS...AND ENDED UP BEING ABOUT 2 DEG COOLER THAN 6Z MAVMOS. RESULT IN GRIDS WAS TO LOWER A RANGE OR TWO/OPENING UP A RANGE OR TWO. WENT WITH /BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY/ WORDING. 440 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 DYING COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AS S/WV/VORT IDENTIFIED WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE...RELYING TOTALLY ON HEATING FOR A TRIGGER. MCS ACTIVITY OUT IN THE PLAINS WILL OF COURSE NEED TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR...HOWEVER TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE TO EITHER WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING...RIDE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY OR SOUTH OF OUR AREA WHERE RICHEST THETA E AIR IS LOCATED. MODELS HAVE BEEN CREATING PHANTOM PRECIP OVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEMORY SERVES TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE BIG PICTURE OF AN OVERALL WEAK FORCING ENVIRONMENT. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS TO 20 FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BARRING ANY STORM SCALE ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY AT OR LESS THAN 95 FOR TODAY. TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS ON TAP FOR THE AREA. WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HWO. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW JUST FOR THE FACT THAT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...HOWEVER WITH GOOD INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL STILL MENTION A SMALL CHANCE IN THE HWO FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 FOR MOST. DESPITE OVERALL WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...STILL THINK A GOOD CHANCE IS WARRANTED AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH HELPED TRIGGER NEARLY LIKELY COVERAGE FOR OUR AREA YESTERDAY. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. LEFT EXTENDED INTACT. && .JKL...NONE. && $$ GREIF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 339 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION REGARDING NEAR TERM... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM NOCTURNAL DERECHO AND OTHER CONVECTION ARE QUICKLY ERODING WITH TIME. AIRMASS OVER SRN MO HAS RECOVERED REMARKABLY WELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS STRONG INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 100MB MLCAPES NOW APPROACHING 3000 M2/S2 PER SPECIAL 18Z KSGF SOUNDING AND RUC2 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS PRESENTLY CAPPED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 825-750MB...DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FORCED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OVER SW MO/SE KS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING MAINTAINED BY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOCUS AREA EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CUMULUS CONGESTUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHOULD BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NRN OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH 45 KNOTS MID LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. VERY STEEP 750-500MB LAPSE RATES...AUGMENTED BY POTENTIAL FOR STORM SCALE ROTATION...WILL SUPPORT RAPID/SUSTAINED UPDRAFT GROWTH...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN A VERY DRY MID TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES. CANNOT EXCLUDE A LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG PRE-EXISTING THERMAL BOUNDARIES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY WITH 0-3KM CAPES > 200 J/KG. DR. BOOKBINDER FRESH DISCUSSION... AFTER ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK LOCALLY...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO EXPLODE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS 40KT+ LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FEEDS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. THIS MCS WILL HAVE AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...AND ONCE A COLD POOL DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. APPEARS AS THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BOW ECHO/POSSIBLE DERECHO LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM COULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND CERTAINLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS. GUT FEELING IS THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL THOROUGHLY WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT SO JUST BLANKETED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TOMORROW. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN AND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THAT IS UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE CHANCE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAA REGIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO ONLY INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING EXTENDED GRIDS. DR. IZZI && .AVIATION... WILL CONCENTRATE ON FIRST SEVERAL HOURS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE BROKEN AS SHORTWAVE OVER FAR NERN OK AND SERN KANSAS MOVES IN AND COOLS 750 MB CAP BY A COUPLE DEGREES. EVEN IF CAP DOESNT BREAK, ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR KJLN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CGS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THAT CAN BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER UPDATES. DR. BROWNING .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 208 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM NOCTURNAL DERECHO AND OTHER CONVECTION ARE QUICKLY ERODING WITH TIME. AIRMASS OVER SRN MO HAS RECOVERED REMARKABLY WELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS STRONG INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 100MB MLCAPES NOW APPROACHING 3000 M2/S2 PER SPECIAL 18Z KSGF SOUNDING AND RUC2 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS PRESENTLY CAPPED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 825-750MB...DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FORCED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OVER SW MO/SE KS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING MAINTAINED BY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A SECOND POTENTIAL FOCUS AREA EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CUMULUS CONGESTUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHOULD BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NRN OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH 45 KNOTS MID LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. VERY STEEP 750-500MB LAPSE RATES...AUGMENTED BY POTENTIAL FOR STORM SCALE ROTATION...WILL SUPPORT RAPID/SUSTAINED UPDRAFT GROWTH...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN A VERY DRY MID TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES. CANNOT EXCLUDE A LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG PRE-EXISTING THERMAL BOUNDARIES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY WITH 0-3KM CAPES > 200 J/KG. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ BOOKBINDER mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 115 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... WITH WEAK CAPPING RIDGE OVERHEAD...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP BREAKS DOWN...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF CB AT CVG AND LUK. WILL ADD CB AT CMH WHERE TAIL OF TOWERING CUMULUS IS APPROACHING. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT WILL WARRANT CB AGAIN ~02-06Z. EXPECT DRY WEATHER 06Z-18Z TUESDAY WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... UPPER AIR MAP HAS EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER ILN CWA...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AFFECTING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE CHART HAS FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. TODAY'S PROBLEM INVOLVES MOVEMENT OF CURRENT CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ACTIVITY. EXISTING TSRA OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS ARE MOVING SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT THEY WOULD PROBABLY NOT GET HERE UNTIL THIS EVENING. UPPER FLOW WOULD LIKELY DRIVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF HERE. ALSO...TSRA ARE BEGINNING TO OUTRUN UPPER SUPPORT...WITH MAIN VORT MAX PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE...ANY TSRA WE GET THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE OF THE POP UP VARIETY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WILL UPDATE CURRENT FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTH...WHILE RETAINING DRY FORECAST IN THE NORTH WHERE STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON LONGER. TEMP FORECAST STILL GOOD WITH PERSISTENCE WORKING IN THIS SLOWLY CHANGING SUMMER PATTERN. CONIGLIO && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 435 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... COMPACT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKENING SOME THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA SHORTLY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART SO WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. ETA AND RUC BOTH SHOWING WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKS TO BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE NOTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THINK MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP AND WITH A LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING...BELIEVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AS WEAK S/W ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT SO WILL GO WITH 20-30 POPS. WARM FRONT THEN REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARMER AIR/HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK UP INTO OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A 20-30 POP ACROSS THE SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN CHANCE WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRETTY WARM TEMPS PROGGED AT 850 MB. HEAT INDICES MAY BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT OF A PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90 AND DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. FOR NOW THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. JGL && .LONG TERM(WED-MON)... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT JUL 4 2004. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED 00Z GFS...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET. SPED UP TIMING OF LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPEARS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEGINNING THU. FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT HAS SLOWED DOWN. WONT REALLY GET HERE TIL SUNDAY NOW. BACKED OFF POPS TIL SUNDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES WERE HARD TO BEAT..SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 312 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... CORRECTED TYPO 17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY BRINGING THE PRECIP TO THE CWA WAS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS INDICATED MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIP/TEMPS WILL BE THE INITIAL FORECAST PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS SEEMED TO BE FAR TO SLOW MOVING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WHEN COMPARING TO RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE RUC DOING THE BEST AND NOW THE 18Z ETA CATCHING ON. PRECIP SHOULD COME IN TWO WAVES TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 00-03Z AND A SECOND AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFTER 03Z. Q VECTORS AND LFQ OF H300 JET FOCUS THE BEST LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND THUS HAVE PUT THE HIGHEST POPS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP DESPITE LACK OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TUESDAY WILL DEFINIATLY BE A BELOW NORMAL DAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN CHILLY H850 TEMPS. COLD H850 TEMPS AND MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...ALTHOUGH ETA HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE LLJ FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM TEMPERATURES. ADDED POPS TO THURSDAY AS STRONG MIDLEVEL WAA PATTERN SET UP IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE GOOD FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSRA. BOTH ETA/GFS BRING STRONG MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT H700 TEMPS 10-12C AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD HOLD CAP...WITH INSTABILITY MOVING INTO PLACE FOR STRONG STORMS FRIDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AS THE ETA BRINGS VERY MOIST (DEWPOINTS AROUND 77 ) INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON WHATS GOING ON DOWNSTREAM. IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE H500 FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE OF THE BIG DIFFERENCES IS STRENGTH OF RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OUT AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ON THURS-FRIDAY. UKMET/CANADIAN ARE WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THUS FASTER WITH THE WAVE/FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE AMPLIFIED. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO SUPPORT THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN MORE WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST. ALSO ADDED POPS INTO SATURDAY AS GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE UP THE FLOW...AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THIS. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE VALUES ACTUALLY LOOKED PRETTY REASONABLE AFTER FRIDAY SO STAYED CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JRM sd