QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 052152
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 450 PM EST THU FEB 05 2009
  
  
 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 09/0000 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 DAY 1...
 
 18Z UPDATE..
 SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE ACRS CA TO ACCOUNT BOTH FOR
 SATL/RADAR TRENDS WHILE ALSO INCORPORATING 12Z ECMWF DATA. 
 INCREASED AMOUNTS NRN END OF SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH FAVORED SLY
 UPSLOPE CONDS.  OTHER CHANGES WERE MOSTLY TIMING ISSUES.  
 
 ...WRN U.S...
 
 THE MEAN TROF WL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST DAY 1...WITH THE
 EMPHASIS FOR A CLOSED LOW IN THE MEAN OFF THE SRN CA COAST. 
 OVERALL..MODEL SOLNS DAY 1 ARE IN GOOD AGRMNT.  ALL MODELS SHOW
 THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW OFF THE CNTRL TO SRN CA COAST BEING KICKED
 INLAND BY ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DIVING SWD OFF THE CA COAST AND INTO
 THE MEAN CLOSED LOW PSN.  THE INITIAL INLAND MOVG CLOSED LOW AND
 THE REFORMATION OF THE CLOSED LOW TONIGHT INTO FRI WL KEEP
 SUSTAINED SLY TO SWLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO A LARGE PORTION OF CA. 
 THIS WL SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
 REGIONS FROM FAR SWRN OR/NWRN CA...SWD ALONG THE COAST RANGE OF
 CNTRL TO SRN CA...ACRS THE TRANSVERSE RANGE AND  INTO THE SRN
 SIERRA.  FOR QPF DETAILS..THE 12 KM NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE
 FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY.
 
 LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RH WL INCREASE ACRS THE GTBASIN WITH THE
 INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST.  PCPN
 AMTS WL BE LIGHTER THAN UPSTREAM ALONG THE CA COAST GIVEN LOWER PW
 VALUES AND THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE CLOSED LOW.  MODELS ARE
 SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD WITH QPF TO THE EAST OF THE SRN SIERRA
 INTO FAR ERN CA AND SRN NV.  A FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS SHOW
 .25-.50"+ AMTS HERE...WHILE OTHERS HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS IN THE
 .10"+RANGE.  ATTM...WE TRENDED AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER TOTALS AS
 THEY SEEMED OVERDONE...DEPICTING AMTS CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL
 ECMWF.  
 
 WHILE THE CRUX OF THE NERN PAC HT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE SWD
 OFF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE MEAN CLOSED LOW PSN OFF THE SRN CA
 COAST...SOME HT FALLS WL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AND TOWARD THE NRN
 ROCKIES FRI. THIS WL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MDT PCPN AMTS IN THE
 .10-.25"+ RANGE ACRS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
 
 COASTAL SE FL...
 
 THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE ELY DIRECTION
 ACRS S FL AS THE SFC HIGH OVR THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OFFSHORE.  THIS
 SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
 FRI OVR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE FL.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE
 FROM THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF CONSENSUS OF AREAL AVG LIGHT PCPN
 AMTS IN THESE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITH ELY FLOW RAINBANDS. 
  
  
 DAYS 2 AND 3...
 
 ...WEST...
 NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND FOCUS
 PRECIPITATION IN THE SAME AREAS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON DAY
 3 WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. THE EC DEVELOPS
 THE EPAC RIDGE A LITTLE BETTER AND MAINTAINS A MORE FOCUSED
 TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG 140W AND A
 BROADER TROUGH. THIS STRUCTURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
 PRECIPITATION INLAND MORE QUICKLY. LOOKING AT SUCCESSIVE MODEL
 RUNS THE TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE EC SOLUTION...SO THE MANUAL QPF
 FOR DAY 3 WILL FAVOR THE EC MORE THAN THE GFS. 
 
 RELATED TO THIS STRUCTURE IS THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
 SOUTHWEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NW COAST TROUGH
 APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING OF THE SW
 CIRCULATION AHEAD OF IT...AND A TREND FOR THE LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT
 MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL US...GLFMEX-MN. IMPACT ON
 QPF IS TO ACCEPT THE EC FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES RATHER THAN
 THE GFS SOLUTION OF SPREADING QPF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
 KS/NE.
 
 SHORT STORY...GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 2...HEAVIEST QPF IN CA/NV AND
 INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AZ/UT. 
 LIGHT PCPN THROUT VCNTY OF GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
 
 DAY 3...SLOWER TREND OF EC PREFERRED...HEAVIEST PCPN IN SW AND
 SOUTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE PLAINNS LATER. 
 LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST CENTERED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
 FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
 
 ORAVEC/SULLIVAN/KELLY
 
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 24HR QP VT 07/00Z
  0.01 529204 529189 530183 532179 532173 529165 525160 521155 
       516151 501139 484128 478127 473127 470128 469133 467138 
       464140 457141 451143 448143 446141 444136 443130 443125 
       447123 452117 461114 463111 463107 462101 458099 455099 
       451096 429084 427083 423084 421087 423091 424093 424100 
       420101 416104 415103 415099 413093 410090 407088 404087 
       404085 405083 408081 412079 416073 415065 413060 411056 
       405054 399054 393058 384062 378064 374061 369060 365062 
       364067 366072 369075 373079 375085 378090 381093 387099 
       389102 388106 386109 377112 369115 361122 356126 353130 
       350136 351139 353141 357142 364143 366147 366151 362153 
       357154 341161 335160 328160 321161 316163 311166 309168 
       309171 312176 315183 319191 327209 339229 343235 348242 
       358247 366252 376257 382259 389261 417270 429272 438273 
       446272 455269 474270 480273 488276 494281 498281 501280 
       507274 511270 514266 516257 516248 513237 510226 513221 
       517216 529204 
  0.01 474840 474835 472829 469820 466814 463809 458804 453801 
       451801 446802 441807 436811 435814 435819 442833 451838 
       455840 450847 439853 436860 439864 442864 446863 452859 
       463852 471847 474843 474840 
  0.01 487197 488192 487191 486187 485187 482185 481182 480181 
       477181 476185 475189 474193 473197 472200 471201 469205 
       471206 473206 474206 477204 480204 483201 485201 487198 
       487197 
  0.01 448765 448760 447756 444754 441754 438756 437758 436759 
       435763 436767 437771 438775 441777 442777 445777 446775 
       446773 447770 448766 448765 
  0.01 434204 435201 435197 434190 431187 429187 427183 430176 
       433172 434168 434163 432156 430151 431144 430139 427139 
       426140 424144 422150 421154 417156 414156 406157 393156 
       390157 389164 383172 381174 378177 378181 380185 384189 
       387194 390194 395197 399201 402205 406207 408210 415212 
       418217 418224 417228 421226 422221 425216 431209 434204 
  0.01 406182 407179 407177 405175 404174 401172 399171 396170 
       393171 392172 392176 392177 394180 395181 397183 400185 
       403184 406183 406182 
  0.01 275802 274797 271794 267792 259794 251797 245801 243808 
       243815 244819 248817 249815 253811 260807 267805 274803 
       275802 
  0.25 478216 476214 473214 471214 472218 475218 478216 
  0.25 461220 458217 451215 439216 430219 427222 427225 427230 
       422233 417233 414230 414222 414219 413216 408215 402216 
       399216 395214 393207 390202 384194 376188 369183 364181 
       358181 356184 357189 359193 359199 355199 352195 350193 
       350191 348184 346175 344168 342165 330164 324164 320168 
       320174 322179 326185 336204 339211 346219 379244 388248 
       395251 402253 413255 422255 431254 441251 449247 453243 
       454239 452236 451234 452230 456226 460223 461220 
  0.25 443109 435104 432104 424107 424112 421115 418116 414115 
       409111 404111 400113 406119 414119 419120 421123 423127 
       429122 434116 440112 443109 
  0.50 448221 445219 443219 441219 439220 436221 434221 433223 
       432224 433226 435228 438227 440227 442225 445224 446224 
       448221 448221 
  0.50 433245 432240 428237 417236 413236 411234 410230 411226 
       412223 410218 406222 405228 400231 396232 393234 391236 
       392240 397246 403248 406248 412248 417249 426249 430247 
       433245 
  0.50 383204 385200 384198 381194 379192 374188 371185 365183 
       360183 359187 362190 365193 369197 371201 374204 380206 
       383204 
  0.50 372227 374222 373216 370212 362206 357205 353202 351199 
       349193 346178 345173 344169 342167 339166 330165 328165 
       325168 326173 327176 331183 336194 339202 342206 352217 
       358222 362225 370228 372227 
  1.00 378196 378195 376194 375191 373190 371188 369186 368186 
       365185 364185 365189 367191 370192 373194 374195 375195 
       378196 378196 
  1.00 363217 361215 359213 358212 357212 358216 361217 363217 
  1.00 349204 349200 347194 346189 345185 344178 344173 341168 
       336170 337177 338180 339187 341191 342195 343199 345204 
       348205 349204 
  1.50 341174 342171 341170 340171 341174 341174  
  
 24HR QP VT 08/00Z
  0.01 532735 530727 527719 521715 518714 514715 507716 493717 
       487718 480719 470724 465726 461730 457739 453743 447739 
       442737 439739 437742 432748 423766 415781 409795 403810 
       395826 388841 383855 378871 376879 373888 367903 361918 
       362923 361926 359931 358938 360940 363941 369939 375935 
       379929 396924 404921 412917 418916 424916 428917 431919 
       437923 442929 461950 463957 465965 469974 474979 481981 
       490982 496982 502980 508975 515967 518963 521959 523953 
       523950 525938 524924 524909 524900 526888 529877 531865 
       533851 534840 533817 533810 533804 532794 533762 532735 
  0.01 517176 519169 519162 516151 513141 510136 505131 497127 
       493123 490121 488118 484112 482105 483096 482086 479085 
       474090 470091 468089 463085 461082 460076 460062 459059 
       455058 448060 438066 436069 438077 444086 444089 441091 
       438091 434091 429085 424081 423079 423074 423069 422064 
       418060 411056 402055 395056 384061 379065 375069 373075 
       374079 376082 384090 386092 388096 390101 389105 387106 
       380105 374108 365108 359111 352110 345100 340097 337102 
       335109 332113 329115 321115 313115 306116 298121 288129 
       280138 277146 277154 278160 280165 286175 292183 305201 
       308205 314211 323218 346231 354234 362235 367233 372233 
       375235 380237 386239 392238 395237 399235 403230 407222 
       409214 408207 409197 409187 413180 416177 416170 417164 
       421160 420142 422133 424127 425115 428114 433113 438114 
       440117 442125 443143 446161 443169 440177 437189 436195 
       435201 429199 427193 428188 426183 420189 420197 419202 
       415209 412215 411232 414239 420244 424246 429246 433244 
       436240 444231 450225 454220 458212 457206 454202 454199 
       457193 465181 462173 456169 456164 458160 462161 469167 
       481168 487173 492170 496168 498168 499168 507176 511180 
       514180 517176 
  0.01 432100 430096 430095 427092 425092 424090 421091 421092 
       419095 420099 421100 422103 424104 426104 427104 429102 
       432100 
  0.01 266796 265791 263787 260782 257780 254782 250786 245789 
       241794 234803 232816 229829 229836 229841 229845 233845 
       237841 242836 247832 250826 251821 252814 255807 260803 
       264800 266796 
  0.25 502845 501834 498824 495817 491809 487804 482799 477798 
       475799 472802 472807 471814 473832 474849 476860 479870 
       482875 487878 492878 496881 499880 501877 501870 502861 
       502850 502845 
  0.25 403151 397138 395130 394127 391124 387119 383118 379118 
       368122 363122 360121 354117 347114 340116 337122 332126 
       328131 326138 328146 327151 325152 309152 303153 301156 
       304162 306168 307172 310175 314180 322188 333199 342206 
       360211 368212 373209 380208 386205 390200 393192 395183 
       397172 399162 402155 403151 
  0.50 387149 381137 380131 381126 380123 378124 374125 362130 
       354127 351120 342123 338130 335136 336143 338150 343154 
       350158 354163 358165 362164 368163 376165 380163 382159 
       386153 387149 
  0.50 373191 373187 371184 370183 368182 366180 363179 360179 
       357179 356180 355184 356187 357187 359190 361192 362192 
       364193 367194 369194 370193 373191 
  0.50 352197 353193 351190 349183 348175 346168 343165 339164 
       331163 326163 322164 320166 320171 324176 329181 331186 
       336190 341195 345199 349199 352197 
  1.00 371154 369152 368150 366148 363147 361146 360146 358148 
       356149 358149 360151 361153 363154 366153 366154 369154 
       371154 
  
  
 24HR QP VT 09/00Z
  0.01 529242 516237 505230 490226 483225 477229 470236 467239 
       462242 458245 454246 450245 448242 445237 441227 436223 
       430220 424220 419221 416219 415215 414212 391194 385188 
       394180 403177 410171 418163 421158 427151 435159 439155 
       440151 440145 438140 433136 430132 430125 432120 437117 
       443117 450119 453117 455108 453098 449094 440095 436095 
       432094 426090 424091 424095 427099 425101 421103 420104 
       419109 417111 415100 414094 416088 423079 430066 442048 
       448039 452027 452019 451015 449010 443008 433006 428004 
       423999 417988 413983 409978 399971 393968 390961 392947 
       391934 392926 392919 394903 396877 397867 398859 400854 
       402847 405845 408846 413846 419842 438827 442821 445822 
       447826 453838 458840 462840 464842 469845 475848 479847 
       485845 489842 492837 500826 503819 504811 505794 505787 
       505779 504770 505764 503748 511690 510680 508672 508664 
       505657 494646 489645 482644 473646 468654 461660 458659 
       456660 453663 449664 446670 441675 439679 437681 429687 
       419698 416703 413710 410722 405734 400743 395754 392768 
       387781 382793 379806 376816 376820 377823 379823 381824 
       382827 380832 376845 374854 371865 366890 364904 362916 
       361920 361926 360933 361941 362949 364957 365962 364966 
       358970 350978 347982 343989 336007 331018 324029 318036 
       311042 296053 288056 276059 264059 253054 249053 244054 
       243061 244069 245074 247081 250086 253089 257093 258097 
       258109 258123 259137 257147 257152 259157 264164 262173 
       262178 264182 272190 279196 284200 289202 293205 298206 
       303207 310205 329199 332197 336199 338203 344210 347214 
       354217 361219 362222 361228 358234 356239 353248 355254 
       361260 371265 374268 380271 387274 393278 402283 415289 
       423293 427299 433312 439323 447332 454339 463346 468349 
       474351 482352 
  0.01 410765 407767 406767 407769 410766 410765 
  0.25 523257 513250 506248 501248 486246 477249 466256 459263 
       455269 456274 458280 458286 454293 455300 458307 461312 
       467317 475319 487322 499323 
  0.25 481689 479683 477682 474684 473688 470697 469704 466713 
       464717 461720 454725 448733 439747 435754 435757 435760 
       437762 443762 448764 452765 455762 460754 468740 472733 
       476724 478717 481709 482703 482698 481693 481689 
  0.25 489756 489747 487739 484738 481740 479745 478750 476756 
       475762 474771 475775 479777 482776 486773 489767 489761 
       489756 
  0.25 410072 411065 406061 404060 400061 394061 389062 383064 
       375061 372059 366059 357063 351070 348073 345074 341072 
       332069 327071 324074 321078 317080 313081 307082 302081 
       299079 292074 288072 284071 278069 272070 268072 265075 
       263078 262081 263084 270102 275109 282115 290119 295127 
       301133 306135 311135 318129 324129 331132 345141 353145 
       365150 369151 374151 381148 385144 387139 389132 388123 
       385114 380105 378097 384090 399083 406079 410075 410072 
  0.25 301161 301156 299151 297148 296145 293141 288139 283138 
       277139 275142 274145 275149 277152 279155 282159 286162 
       289164 294165 298164 301161 
  0.50 522265 511259 504256 498255 487255 480256 475258 471261 
       470265 473268 480270 482272 482276 473286 466296 464300 
       469305 476306 481306 488307 493309 504313 
  0.50 399072 395070 389072 387075 382072 378069 375067 372067 
       370068 370075 372083 375085 381084 385083 385079 387076 
       392077 395075 399072 
  0.50 365139 365131 361127 357121 354117 351110 347106 340102 
       336099 340093 341089 337084 333081 327082 321085 315086 
       307086 301084 296082 285076 278075 271076 269081 271087 
       271094 274099 277104 281109 287111 294112 302112 309113 
       320108 326116 334125 339128 345131 351134 354138 357140 
       362140 365139 
  0.50 333102 332102 329101 329102 332102 333102 
  1.00 288090 288087 287084 285083 283082 280083 277083 277084 
       277086 277087 280089 281090 283091 285092 288090