FXUS62 KEYW 301910
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THE 
EAST...WEST AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS ONCE AGAIN FORMED AND PENETRATED 
INLAND. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE 
FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
MEANWHILE...RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE IS SMOTHERING THE ISLAND CHAIN AND 
SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS 
OVER THE MARINE DISTRICT. 

.SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE PERSISTENT...AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER 
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE LYING 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE 
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL 
ALOFT (500 TEMPS -4.7 DEG C THIS MORNING -8 DEG C 00Z THUR) WITH 
PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES. FURTHERMORE...MESO-ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS 
MAINTAIN A PRONOUNCED INVERSION JUST BELOW 950 MB THROUGH MONDAY 
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER LATE TUESDAY. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT BEGINNING TUESDAY.   

.MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DESPITE FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE...NO LARGE SCALE LIFT IS APPARENT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. 

&&
.MARINE...
WITH THE MEAN POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE LYING ACROSS SOUTH 
FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS 
WILL PERSIST. ONCE AGAIN...TO ACCOUNT FOR AN OCCASIONAL...AND SUBTLE 
WIND INCREASE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WILL MAINTAIN 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS 
BEYOND THE REEF. 

&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE KMIA-KEYW AIR 
ROUTE...INCLUDING THE KEYW AND KMTH TERMINALS. 

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 078/087 078/087 078 00011 
MARATHON 079/090 078/090 078 00011 

&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.......S.DAIDA