FXUS64 KBRO 170122
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
830 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS 
WEST TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND 500MB RUC HEIGHT 
ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDING 
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE 
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH MOISTURE CONFINED 
TO NEAR 850MB AS PER LATEST KBRO SOUNDING. SKIES APPEAR TO BE 
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TX. WILL UPDATE 
ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CLOUD COVER.
&&     

.MARINE...SCA FOR GMZ130...AS COOL SURF FM RECENT FROPA WELCOMES 
MIXING. NRN GULF OF MEX NEARLY FLAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETED THE 
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WIND FIELD FEEL TO NADA. THE LWR TX 
COASTAL WATERS NOW AT 5 FOOTERS IN 15 TO 19 KTS OF SE WND. GWW KEEPS 
WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 6 FT THRU 12Z WED...WITH SE WNDS APPROACHING 20 
KTS. GENERALLY...NOT A VERY GREAT DETERMENT TO ANY MARINE ACTIVITY. 
ALTHOUGH SCA FLAGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SAT...NOT A MAJOR PLAYER...AS   
WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...WND SPEEDS ON SAT LOOK EVEN STRONGER THAN TDYS
...WITH A WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE. CIGS MVFR OVRNGT...TO VFR BY LATE 
MRNG AS CLGS WILL MIX OUT/UPWARD WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGER AND 
GUSTIER SURFACE WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME 
LIGHT LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING LANDING AND TAKEOFFS AT LOCAL 
AIRPORTS. STRONG SE WNDS CONTINUE FOR SUN PM.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A QUIET AND PRETTY BENIGN WX PATTERN WILL 
PERSIST OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.  5H TROFFING WILL 
DEEP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A 5H CLOSED LOW SHEARS OFF OF 
THE 5H TROFFING DIGGING OFFSHORE OF THE NE U.S.  THIS WILL IN TURN 
TEND TO BUILD A 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY 
WITH THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY ELONGATED FROM THE SW TO THE NE OVER THE 
GULF COAST.  A SIGNIFICANT 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST ACROSS THE 
UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PGF OVER THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS STATES THROUGHOUT SUN.  SO THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN 
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE BRO 
CWA.  THE MODERATE/STRONG SE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINT AND 
WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN PLACE IN THE SHORT TERM.  DIURNAL 
HEATING WILL HELP GENERATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SC/CU FIELDS 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MAV AND MET TEMP GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL TEMP 
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN THE EXPECTED WARM UP.  SO WILL GO 
A LITTLE BELOW MET HIGH TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD.    
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ130.
&&

$$

SYNOPTIC...CASTILLO
AVIATION/MARINE...PHILO
MESO...ABBOTT

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