AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 315 AM PST MON FEB 2 2004 SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...EPAC TROUGH WAS SPLITTING AND HAS ACQUIRED A NEGATIVE TILT THIS MORNING AS 140 KT JET DIGS INTO BASE. SOME LIGHT WAA PRECIP WAS OCCURRING OVER NORCAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA...HOWEVER SSMI DATA SHOW ORGANIZED PRECIP STILL OFFSHORE CLOSER TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING 125W. FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS JET CROSSES BAROCLINIC ZONE DURG THE NEXT 6 HOURS...AND PROGS ARE SIMILAR PROJECTING FRONT APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z...CONTG SE INTO THE KERN MTNS BY 00Z. UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER...WILL LAG APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS WITH AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST OF THE SIERRA UNTIL AROUND 06Z. WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET ACCOMPANYING FRONT AS IT MOVES THRU THE DISTRICT...STRONG DYNAMICS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND KERN MTNS. WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS COMBINING WITH STRONG UVM... WILL MAKE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BASED ON 06Z MODEL RUNS. WILL ALSO DELAY WORDING OF WARNING SLIGHTLY FOR THE KERN MTNS AS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS PRE-FRONTAL WINDS IN THE CENTRAL SJ VALLEY TODAY AS WSETA PROGS 30M WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KTS AS SE P-GRADS TIGHTEN PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AT THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME...5K FT SPEEDS HAVE INDEED STRENGTHENED TO AROUND 30 KTS ON KHNX WVP...AND STRONGER GUSTS MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE AS LOW-MID LEVELS BECOME COUPLED LATER THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOCAL GUSTS JUST BELOW WAD LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...WITH STRONGEST SPEEDS AFFECTING THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND AREAS IN MERCED COUNTY. FINAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY PROFILES PROJECTED FOR TODAY...AND POSITIVE STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING WITH FRONT OFFSHORE. KHNX VWP SHOWS S-SW LOW-MID LVL FLOW HAS ALREADY STRENGTHENED TO AROUND 30 KTS...AND ETA-BUFR/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE HELICITIES OF 200-300 MS/S2 THRU LATE MORNING. THOUGH HELICITIES WILL DECREASE AS FRONT PROCEEDS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND WSETA PROJECTIONS OF CAPE INCREASING AS HIGH AS 800 J/KG WARRANT MAINTAINING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THRU EARLY EVENING. THOUGH TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THRU TUES WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS THEY ROTATE THRU THE CWA. A DRIER BUT SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT TUES NGT/WED AS EPAC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES 130W. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS IN THE KERN MTNS/DESERTS AS UPPER FLOW COMES INTO INCREASING ALIGNMENT WITH SURFACE P-GRADS. .LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAVE CENTRAL CA IN A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS BRUSHES THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH SOME DEEP MOISTURE ON FRIDAY...HAVE DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION SINCE THE 06Z GFS IS IN MORE LINE WITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET AND ECM KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR CWFA AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES NORCAL THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS AN INSIDE SLIDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GEM CONTINUES TO BE EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER PROGS WITH IT/S TRAJECTORY. REGARDLESS...DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS IN THE GRIDS DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F BY SUNDAY. WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD HAVE DECIDED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN BY A FEW DEG F THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... && $$ JSN/DS ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 230 PM MST MON FEB 2 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET/MAGNITUDE OF HEAVY MTN SNOWS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTNS...AND TEMPS ON PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AS WELL AS ONSET OF PCPN... LATEST WATER VAPOR PICS/RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF NW COAST WITH 150+ KT UPPER JET DIVING DOWN WRN SIDE. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS EJECTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO SHORTWAVE RIDGE... WITH AREA RADARS AT KTCX AND KSLC SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MAIN FORCING FOR BRUNT OF SNOWFALL/QPF WILL OCCUR WITH FORMER FEATURE WHICH APPROACHES FORECAST AREA IN THE 2ND PERIOD AND BEYOND. BUT FOR TONIGHT...AS THIS MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH WRN COLORADO...THINK ONSET OF SNOWS WILL BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS. HAVE BUMPED UP TIMING/COVERAGE A BIT IN GRIDS. DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF LULL. MEANWHILE UPPER JET ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM DIGS TROF ACROSS THE WRN US...WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 00Z WED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY DAWN TUESDAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...(ESP SAN JUANS). THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TOWARDS AFTERNOON...GOOD QG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... AND UPPER LVL DIFLUENCE...SHOULD HELP HEAVY SNOWS GET CRANKING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MTNS. WILL BE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WAA PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS SE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THIS AREA...AS TEMPS COULD COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS BEFORE THICKENING MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL HAVE WARMED UP GRIDS A BIT AND HAVE REMOVED PATCHY FOG. MOISTURE IN MODEL CROSS- SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS THICKEN TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON WITH 12Z RUN OF MESO-ETA SHOWING THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. PRETTY STABLE LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE AREA THOUGH. WILL KEEP ANY SCATTERED POPS MORE CONFINED TO THE MTS WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS FOR SOUTHERN INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. PARAMETERS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN LATER PERIODS. THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER EAST... STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL HELP AREAS LIKE KSPD AND KLAA TO MIX OUT MORE IN-SPITE OF THE INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER...SO TEMPS TO BE WARMEST HERE. .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY). MAIN CHALLENGE WL BE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. MOST OF MY TIME WL BE SPENT IRONING OUT THESE DETAILS AND WL NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE FARTHER OUT PERIODS. BY THE ETA THE UPR LOW WL BE OVR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE EVE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E OVR NRN NM DURING THE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NE ACRS WRN KS. THE AVN HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THEN DOES NOT LIFT IT NE LIKE THE ETA. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN NM TUE NIGHT/WED. BOTH ETA AND GFS GIVE DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AND FOR THE MTS. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GREAT IN THE FINE DETAILS WHICH WL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE ETA HAS MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WL NOT FAVOR SRN EL PASO COUNTY OR MOST OF PUEBLO COUNTY...AND THE ETA DOES NOT SHOW MUCH SNOW FOR THE SE FOOTHILLS EITHER. GFS HAS A DECENT NE FLOW AT THE SFC AND 700MB OVR THE SE PLAINS/MTS WHICH WOULD MEAN GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVR SW PUEBLO COUNTY...THE WET MTS AND SANGRES AND THE ADJACNET PLAINS. GFS MAY BE OVERDOING THE STRONG NE FLOW BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND FAR E PLAINS SO WL GO WITH A WATCH TUE NIGHT/WED. THE UPR DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD OROGRAPHICS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY WED...AND WL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THRU THE DAY WED. EARLY WED MORNING THE UPR FLOW SWITHCES AROUND TO THE NW OVR THE SW MTNS FOR LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND WL END THE WINTER STORM WARNING BY 12Z WED. THE UPR LOW WL EXIT TO THE EAST WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND PCPN. FRI SOME LINGERING MSTR OVR WRN AREAS SO WL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS...BUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVR THE AREAS WL LEAVE ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. SAT ANOTHER WX SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR PCPN. UNSETTLED WEA WL CONTINUE THEN THRU MON AS THE GFS IS SHOWING AN UPR LOW OVR NW AZ SUN MORNING WHICH THEN TRACKS EWRD ACRS NRN NM AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY MON MORNING. IF THIS SYSTEM REALLY DOES TRACK ACRS THIS AREA...IT SHOULD BRING THE ENTIRE AREA SOME CHANCE FOR SNOW. WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING 12Z TUE-13Z WED FOR ZONES 66>68 (EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTS). WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 12Z TUE-00Z WED ZONES 58>65. WINTER STORM WATCH 00Z WED-00Z THU ZONES 72>76...79>82 ERN MTS AND KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS... BACA...LAS ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 10 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE... .DISCUSSION...COOL MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND A POORLY-INITIALIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FL EAST COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE FOG IS MORE STUBBORN THAN TYPICAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENTS BECAUSE OF THE SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS AND VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5K FT. SO IT IS TAKING LONGER TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. THE FOG IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING INTO A THICK CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...AS CURRENT READINGS ARE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN GFS MOS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK UP ONCE WE CAN ELIMINATE THE SFC INVERSION (WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT ABOUT 66F)...AND DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE WE ARE LOSING PRECIOUS HOURS OF SFC HEATING THIS MORNING. EARLIER ETA AND GFS HAD A POOR HANDLE ON SFC LOW. ONLY RUC INITIALIZED SYSTEM OFFSHORE. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW (W WINDS AT BUOY 009...EAST AT BUOY 010) AROUND THE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ENOUGH SUN COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHD LEAD TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST. WILL BE TWEAKING WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. && .MARINE...MESOSCALE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOCATED NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THIS LOW DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING A VERY WEAK GRADIENT. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS...SEAS REMAIN 9 FEET AT BUOY 009 DUE TO A LARGE ENE SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR SEAS THIS AFTN AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT. THE LARGE SWELL WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT INLETS...AND PRODUCE POUNDING SURF AT THE BEACHES. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING IS EXCELLENT FOR SURFING...BUT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. && $$ SHORT TERM...HIRSCH LONG TERM....KELLY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 245 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE... .SHORT TERM...AM FOG LIKELY IN SOUTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO OCF DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE THERE THAN FURTHER NORTHWARD. ALSO WIND WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH ELSEWHERE. COASTAL RAINBAND WILL SURGE INLAND AND MOVE NORTH INTO GA BY 12Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM GNV TO SGJ AND NORTH EARLY AM...BUT WITH MINIMAL INLAND TOTALS. COASTAL GA COUNTIES MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TOTAL. RAIN LIFTS NORTH BY PM WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN INLAND FL CWA THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ALONG TRAIL RIDGE. BREEZY WITH STRONG GUSTS ALONG COAST DUE TO STRONG COASTAL TROUGH SOUTH OF COLD AIR WEDGE WHICH PENETRATES TO VICINITY SSI. WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER IN GLYNN COUNTY THAN SOUTHWARD. TEMPS IN MID 40S IN INLAND GA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S. OVERALL A BLUSTERLY DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH THEN WEST IN LATE PM. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD IN TO BRING CLEARING TO THE AREA...THEN TURN NORTHEAST AGAIN PM WEDNESDAY. && .EXTENDED FORECAST...THURSDAY MOISTURE RETURN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THURSDAY PM THUNDERSTORMS IF IT HAPPENS FAST ENOUGH...AND EXPECT IT WILL. MODELS NOT YET GOING THERE...SO WILL WATCH FOR IT. HAVE PUT UP FORECAST POPS TO MATCH EXPECTATION. MODEL DOES HAVE A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA SO OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER ALSO EXISTS BY LATE PM THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WET WHETHER THURSDAY ACTIVITY HAPPENS OR NOT AS MAIN FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AFTER GOOD MOISTENING. HALF INCH TOTALS LIKELY MANY AREAS. .MARINE...DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PIN DOWN WITH A MYRIAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RUC SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THEREFORE KEEPS REGION UNDER EASTERLY INFLUENCE FOR A BIT LONGER. REGARDLESS...WITH LOW TRACKING NORTH...THERE SHOULD BE A RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH SURF TO EXPIRE THERE. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS AS RECENT OBS STILL REFLECT 6 TO 8 FOOT BREAKERS. SHOULD BE A RAPID DECREASE TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS PLAY CATCH UP BUT DO ALL AGREE ON GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 59 46 69 40 / 40 30 00 00 SSI 61 52 64 45 / 60 30 10 00 JAX 67 52 71 44 / 60 30 10 00 SGJ 68 55 69 51 / 50 20 00 00 GNV 72 50 73 43 / 30 20 10 00 OCF 75 50 74 45 / 20 20 10 00 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...SCA/HIGH SURF ADVISORY NORTH OF SGJ GA...SCA/HIGH SURF ADVISORY && $$ PUBLIC WELSH MARINE/FIRE DEESE fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1110 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT LOCATIONS PRIMARILY WEST OF I-55...WITH A FEW SPOTTY AREAS FROM DEC-CMI. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SW MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NNE INTO WRN IL BY THIS EVENING. RUC SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE UP INTO CENT AND ECENT IL TO SWITCH THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN. THIS MAY EVEN OCCUR AS FAR NW AS PEORIA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR THAT HAS CHANGED THE FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN IN BURLINGTON IOWA. THE RUC AND ETA BOTH INDICATE THAT THE LOW LAYER OF WARM AIR ABOUT 3-4 KFT ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY COOL...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW IN THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF CENT IL IN THE EVENING. IN EAST CENTRAL AND SE IL...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A VORT MAX IN ARKANSAS LIFTS OUT. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN AREAS NORTH OF TUSCOLA TO PARIS LINE WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL QPFS ALL POINT TO LOWERING SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. THUS...HAVE DROPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR PEORIA-GALESBURG WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS LIKELY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... PLENTY OF COMPLEX CHALLENGES CONTINUE WITH DEVELOPING WINTER PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES...SNOW PACK...AND WARM LAYER WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEXT 24 HRS. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ACROSS TN VALLEY. LATEST 0800Z IR SATELLITE PLACES PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS WERE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LATEST 0730Z W/V IMAGE PLACES SHORT WAVES ACROSS PLAINS STATES AND MOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST 0827Z KILX RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH 08Z METARS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS PROVIDING GROUND TRUTH TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. MODELS PLACE H50 TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS STATES SOUTHEAST INTO GULF COAST REGION BY 00Z TUE. H50 TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER H50 LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST U.S BY 00Z WED. SURFACE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OUT OF RED RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z TUE...THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATES HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS FROM 12Z MON-12Z TUE. THEN DECREASES RH AT ALL LEVELS BY 00Z WED. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THEN RETURNS HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS BY 18Z WED. MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES SNOW WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA...THEN A MIX OF FZRA/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL CWA...AND RAIN WITH CHANCE OF FZRA EARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA. VARIES SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING BUFKIT...INDICATES WARM LAYER REMAINS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT DECREASES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES ALSO INDICATES SNOW WITH A MIX OF FZRA EARLY IN THE NORTHWEST...A MIX OF FZRA/SNOW CENTRAL...FZRA/SLEET EAST CENTRAL THEN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...AND RAIN/FZRA EARLY SOUTHEAST CHANGING TO SNOW BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 32-35 NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL AND IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. GFS 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE INDICATES DECENT LIFT AND COND PRES DEF ACROSS CWA BY 18Z MON-00Z TUE. THEN MAINTAINS SOME LIFT AND GOD COND PRES DEF ACROSS CWA THROUGH 06Z MON AND SHIFTS IT EAST BY 12Z TUE. MODELS DECREASE 850MB TEMPS FROM +2C TO +4C ACROSS CWA TO -3C TO -1C BY 00Z MON...THEN DECREASES 850MB TEMPS TO -7C TO -4C BY 00Z WED. GFS PLACES SOME DECENT 300MB DIVERGENCE ACROSS CWA THROUGH 00Z TUE. THEN PLACES WEAK 300MB DIVERGENCE ACROSS CWA UNTIL 06Z TUE. WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL LAUNCH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA. CONCERNED AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE CLOSER TO WARNING CRITERIA IN EAST CENTRAL DUE TO FZRA. THIS HAS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A POTENTIAL WARNING IN PARTS OF THE CWA. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR TEMPS NEXT 24 HRS. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER STORM MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...COLD AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THANKS FOR COORDINATION CHI...DVN...IND...STL...PAH...AND SPC. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. && $$ MILLER/EH il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 215 PM CST MON FEB 2 2003 .DISCUSSION... SNOW FINALLY WRAPPING UP HERE IN THE DSM AREA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS E. SURFACE LOW HAS JUMPED N A BIT LAST COUPLE HOURS CLOSE TO KOTM, WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUE ISENT LIFT/WAA IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SLATER PROFILER HAS SHOWN VERY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY, AND WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO A COLD ADVECTION SIGNATURE SOON AS 850-700 MB FRONTS PUSH THROUGH. OLD DEF ZONE IS WEAKNEING ACROSS NW IA, WITH A RENEWED DEF ZONE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MO WITHIN MID LEVEL TROWAL. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH EVENING GRIDS, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED. SFC GEOS WINDS AT 18Z ARE 30-35KT, BUT MIXING NOT TOO PREVALENT AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG INVERSION SHAPING UP. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RUC/ETA FOR SHORT TERM, BUT THE GFS DAYS 2-4. PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD, SO CONFIDENCE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TRACK. 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE RATHER PRONOUNCED CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY THORUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH BUILDS THE SFC RIDGE PRESSURES AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CANADIAN MODEL OFFERS SUPPORT WITH THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. THE CUTOFF 700-500MB CIRCULATION/LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO IA, WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING THE NEMESIS ONCE AGAIN ON TIMING OF SNOWFALL. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR SHOULD STILL DEVELOP SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THIS COLD DOME WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT BY WED AFTERNOON IN THE SW, WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THUR MORNING. ISENTROPIC MIXING RATIOS SUPPORT 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS DURATION (REFER TO OUR TOTAL SNW AMOUNT GRID IN GFE FOR REFERENCE). COURSE GFS D2D SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER, BUT X-SECTIONS SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT ABOVE THE -20C ISOTHEM. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENDED WERE TO REMOVE LOW POPS FROM FRI-SAT FORECAST BASED ON 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. SOME TEMP MODERATION EXPECTED, BUT WITH THE DEEP SNOW COVER, HAVE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KULA ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1138 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2003 .DISCUSSION UPDATED TO FRESHEN WORDING IN TDA/S ZONES AND ADJUST SNOW AMTS. UPDATED WSW FOR ADVISORY. NEG TILT S/W LIFTING NEWRD ARND 30KTS...APRCHG OMA ATTM. XTRAP PUT BACK EDGE OF PCPN AREA AXA-TNU-DAVIS CO ARND 21Z. MINOR DEF ZONE XPCD ACRS NWRN PTN FA FOR SVRL HRS THIS AFTN. CUR RUC DOING A GOOD JOB AS WELL AS 12Z MESOETA. N/S CDFNT IS AIDING LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOWAMTS AS IT ACTS AS A LIFTING BNDRY FOR THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THIS NBDRY FCST TO REACH N/S THRU ALO ARND 22Z. GENLY AMTS 1-3 THIS AFTN ABT THE NERN HALF OF FA...BLO THAT ELSEWHERE. WL LIKELY UPDATE TO REMOVE ADVISORY SW/WC BY MID-AFTN AS UPR WAVE LIFTS NEWRD. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WX ADV UNTIL 6 PM. && $$ MYERS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 400 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2003 .DISCUSSION MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SNOW TOTALS...TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGE OVER IN SE AND ENDING OF PCPN/HEADLINES ALL FORECAST ISSUES THIS AM. CURRENT SYNOPSIS SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTING NE. THE MAIN AXIS OF THIS TROF IS FORECAST BY THE META TO OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING MUCH OF THE FA BACK INTO A SUBSISTENT FLOW REGIME. RUC MODEL IS DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE BEST PCPN PLACEMENT THIS MORNING AND OUTPUT CONTINUES WITH A ROUGH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAX RATES IN THE WESTERN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE WARM AIR AT 850 WILL LIKELY KEEP OVER ALL SNOW TOTALS WELL BELOW THE FORECAST AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT FOR SERN CWA. WILL DOWNGRADE THIS AM TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR A COMBINATION OF ELEMENTS SE WITH BEST SNOWS CONTINUING IN THE NW WITH YET A FEW INCHES IN THE SE AS ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE SE ARE INDICATING FREEZING DZ FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH +3C TO 5C AT 900 MB. MODEL QPF'S DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AFTER 12 OR 3 PM WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP MAY CAUSE SOME GROUND DRIFTING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 KTS TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. ALREADY GOING WITH CHC POPS AND WILL HOLD FOR ANOTHER RUN BEFORE UPPING POPS TO AVIOD FLIP FLOPPING. GFE PRODUCING ANOTHER 4-8 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR AND LOWERING THICKNESSES...SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT PCPN TYPE WITH THIS ONE...HOWEVER WILL BE GOOD TO SEE ANOTHER RUN BEFORE KICKING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CAT. SFC CIRCULATION APPEARS FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL AND GFE SHOWING WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL IN THE 309-312K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LAYERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SE IOWA INDICATIVE OF SOME WARM AIR RUNNING WITH ETA FORECAST AROUND A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. && $$ MR ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1144 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION WL PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO CLEAN UP FORECAST TOOK OUT POPS AS PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXITING SE KS. ALSO DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR TDAY AS SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WL LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. FEEL MOST AREAS SHUD ONLY SEE AROUND 5 DEGREES MORE HEATING BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER. LAWSON -------------------------------------------------------------------- .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LATEST RUC SHOWING LOTS OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN SPITE OF GOOD FRONTOGENISIS ALOFT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS A RESULT. COX --------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL WINTER STORM BY MID-WEEK. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION SNOW FROM ROUGHLY SALINA SOUTH TOWARD WICHITA. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD HUTCHINSON AND WEST OF WICHITA, ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 FRONTOGENESIS ALONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH. 06Z MESOETA HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FEEL THAT AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF A SALINA TO NEWTON TO WINFIELD LINE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH (POSSIBLY TWO FARTHER NORTH AND EAST). CONSEQUENTLY, WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING RIDE UNTIL 9 AM, ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO HUTCHINSON. WILL ALSO LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS RIDE UNTIL 9 AM, WHERE LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY. EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SUN WILL SHINE, PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION AND FRESH 3-7 INCH SNOW PACK WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED. INSERTED PATCHY FOG GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR MID-WEEK. IN CONTRAST WITH THE CURRENT DEPARTING SYSTEM, THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK (IE...MORE MOISTURE). AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL GET GOING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COUPLES WITH AN INCREASING DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, AS AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS PERSIST/INCREASE. ALL MODELS SWING THE UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA, WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AS PROGGED BY GFS AND ETA. THEREFORE, LOWERED POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SATURATED. THE QUESTION OF THE WEEK THEN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ETA KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT SOME WARM AIR MAY NOT TRY TO SNEAK FARTHER NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY IF MID-UPPER TROUGH TURNS MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR. NEVERTHELESS, GRIDS REFLECT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHANUTE TO HUTCHINSON, WITH ALL SNOW NORTH OF THE LINE. AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT MAY TURN THE SNOW OVER TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON WEDNESDAY TURNING OVER TO MORE DEFORMATION SNOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6+ INCHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. BUT AM NOT GOING TO SPECIFY SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND MODELS ACTUALLY GET A CHANCE TO SAMPLE THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM BEGINS PULLING OUT BY LATE THURSDAY, WITH UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY). WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY, SO INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 27 11 33 27 / 40 0 10 20 HUTCHINSON 25 9 30 26 / 30 0 10 30 NEWTON 26 9 30 26 / 40 0 10 20 ELDORADO 27 11 32 27 / 40 0 10 20 STROTHER FIELD 28 13 37 29 / 40 0 10 20 RUSSELL 24 7 28 24 / 5 0 10 30 GREAT BEND 25 8 29 25 / 5 0 10 30 SALINA 24 7 28 24 / 40 0 10 20 MCPHERSON 25 8 29 25 / 30 0 10 20 COFFEYVILLE 31 14 38 28 / 40 0 10 10 CHANUTE 28 12 36 26 / 40 0 10 10 IOLA 27 12 35 26 / 50 0 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FOR SALINE, MCPHERSON, HARVEY, SEDGWICK, BUTLER, MARION, CHASE, GREENWOOD, WOODSON, AND ALLEN COUNTIES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FOR ELK, CHAUTAUQUA, WILSON, NEOSHO, MONTGOMERY, AND LABETTE COUNTIES. && $$ 21/KLEINSASSER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 742 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LATEST RUC SHOWING LOTS OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN SPITE OF GOOD FRONTOGENISIS ALOFT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS A RESULT. COX --------------------------------------------------------------------- .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL WINTER STORM BY MID-WEEK. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION SNOW FROM ROUGHLY SALINA SOUTH TOWARD WICHITA. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD HUTCHINSON AND WEST OF WICHITA, ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 FRONTOGENESIS ALONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH. 06Z MESOETA HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FEEL THAT AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF A SALINA TO NEWTON TO WINFIELD LINE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH (POSSIBLY TWO FARTHER NORTH AND EAST). CONSEQUENTLY, WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING RIDE UNTIL 9 AM, ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO HUTCHINSON. WILL ALSO LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS RIDE UNTIL 9 AM, WHERE LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN HALF AN INCH. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY. EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SUN WILL SHINE, PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION AND FRESH 3-7 INCH SNOW PACK WILL LIMIT HEATING, AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED. INSERTED PATCHY FOG GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR MID-WEEK. IN CONTRAST WITH THE CURRENT DEPARTING SYSTEM, THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK (IE...MORE MOISTURE). AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL GET GOING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COUPLES WITH AN INCREASING DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, AS AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS PERSIST/INCREASE. ALL MODELS SWING THE UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA, WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AS PROGGED BY GFS AND ETA. THEREFORE, LOWERED POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SATURATED. THE QUESTION OF THE WEEK THEN TURNS TO PRECIP TYPE AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND ETA KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT SOME WARM AIR MAY NOT TRY TO SNEAK FARTHER NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY IF MID-UPPER TROUGH TURNS MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR. NEVERTHELESS, GRIDS REFLECT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHANUTE TO HUTCHINSON, WITH ALL SNOW NORTH OF THE LINE. AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT MAY TURN THE SNOW OVER TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON WEDNESDAY TURNING OVER TO MORE DEFORMATION SNOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6+ INCHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. BUT AM NOT GOING TO SPECIFY SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND MODELS ACTUALLY GET A CHANCE TO SAMPLE THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM BEGINS PULLING OUT BY LATE THURSDAY, WITH UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY). WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY, SO INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 27 11 33 27 / 40 0 10 20 HUTCHINSON 25 9 30 26 / 30 0 10 30 NEWTON 26 9 30 26 / 40 0 10 20 ELDORADO 27 11 32 27 / 40 0 10 20 STROTHER FIELD 28 13 37 29 / 40 0 10 20 RUSSELL 24 7 28 24 / 5 0 10 30 GREAT BEND 25 8 29 25 / 5 0 10 30 SALINA 24 7 28 24 / 40 0 10 20 MCPHERSON 25 8 29 25 / 30 0 10 20 COFFEYVILLE 31 14 38 28 / 40 0 10 10 CHANUTE 28 12 36 26 / 40 0 10 10 IOLA 27 12 35 26 / 50 0 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FOR SALINE, MCPHERSON, HARVEY, SEDGWICK, BUTLER, MARION, CHASE, GREENWOOD, WOODSON, AND ALLEN COUNTIES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FOR ELK, CHAUTAUQUA, WILSON, NEOSHO, MONTGOMERY, AND LABETTE COUNTIES. && $$ 21/KLEINSASSER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 226 PM CST MON FEB 2 2004 MOISTURE CHANNEL/IR IMAGERY SHOWING GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM THE WEST. WENT A BIT WARMER TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL. KEPT THE WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS GFS SHOWING UNLIMITED SUN WITH SUBSIDENCE. NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STAYED WITH GFS WHICH SHOWS MOST JET ENERGY TAKING A SOUTHERN SPLIT...DEEPENING THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW WHICH TRACKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. CAP IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE AMPLE THETA RIDGING... MOISTURE ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE...BELIEVE CAP WILL BE BREACHED AND WENT CATEGORICAL ON POPS. GFS BRINGS A STACKED OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW INTO SE TX NEAR CLL LATE WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT VS SEVERE AS THE POLAR JETSTREAK STAYS NORTH NEAR THE RED RIVER OF TX WHILE UPPER LOW FILLS. EXTENDED...WILL NEED TO WATCH NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS UPPER TROF DEEPENING MORE THAN EARLIER...HOWEVER RUN CONSISTENCY NOT GOING OUT BEYOND 78 HOURS SO WILL HOLD OFF GOING FOR MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW NEXT RUN HANDLES THIS SYSTEM. MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TONIGHT. EVENING RUC INCREASES COASTAL WINDS TO 20KTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER WARMER WATERS. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BPT 39 61 44 64 / 0 0 10 70 LCH 39 60 39 63 / 0 0 10 80 LFT 40 60 37 62 / 0 0 5 70 AEX 36 58 35 63 / 0 0 0 90 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...SCA...GMZ450-455-470-475. && $$ 11-SWEENEY la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1125 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT LOCATED THIS MORNING FROM NEAR A RUE...TO HOT...TO ELD... SWD TO HOMER...MANY...AND BPT...BASED ON 17Z SFC OBS/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. FRONT SHOULD EXIT ERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NRN AREAS. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON STRATOCU POSITION/MOVEMENT...AND EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING H850-975 TROF OVER DEEP EAST TX...AND INTO SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA LA BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED CURRENT ZONES TO REMOVE RAIN/FG/DZ...AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS TO FIT EXPECTED TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A TAD...AS AREAS OF E TX THAT SEE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO WARM SLOWLY...BUT FARTHER EAST... TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER GIVEN CLOUD COVER/CAA. ALSO UPPED WINDS A TAD TO 15-20 ALONG/N OF I-20 AS UPSTREME OBS REMAIN WINDY...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY. STRATOCU SHOULD LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 2ND PERIOD OVER THE FAR E/NE ZONES...SO INSERTED P/C FOR THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... SWD INTO WCNTRL TX...SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS OUT SHORTLY. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 49 29 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 54 31 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 47 27 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 50 29 53 38 / 0 0 0 20 LFK 56 28 57 40 / 0 0 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 955 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 RUC LOOKING SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN MESOETA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING SEEN PROBLEMS WITH ETA AND MESOETA LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER RUC AND TWEAK TEMPS UP A DEGREE. THAT SAID... TEMPS WILL MAX OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ABOUT TO CROSS THE SABINE RIVER...MOVES THROUGH. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND. TRAILING EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK EXTRAPOLATES TO LCH AND POE AROUND 1 PM...AEX AND LFT AREA BY 3 PM. WILL WORD UPDATED ZFP ACCORDINGLY. WILL ZERO OUT POPS FOR ALL EXCEPT S CEN LA AS TRAILING PCPN PER POE RADAR NOW OVER LOWER ACADIANA...SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THAT AREA BY NOON. MARINE...SCA FOR NOW. COULD BE LOWERING TO SCEC IF RUC TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESSER WINDS. ...previous discussion... .SYNOPSIS...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SO FAR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER WEST...COLD FRONT IN EASTERN TEXAS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY KTYR TO KCLL ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE DFW AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)... PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. MEANWHILE BY 12Z...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS NEARING THE KJAS AND KBPT AREAS. EXPECT FRONT TO BE OUT OF WESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LATEST VWP FROM KPOE AND PROFILER DATA IS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOW LOW LEVEL JET OF JUST 30 KNOTS WITH SHEAR PROFILE LESSENING. ALSO...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND GREATER INSTABILITY STAYING OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...AGREE WITH SPC THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS VERY LIMITED OVER THE KLCH CWA. STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. COLD AND DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BASED ON COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEN ON OBS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE OPTED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...DESPITE THE FACT AREAS IN THE WEST SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. WENT A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR LOW TEMPS WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY...JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. DYNAMICS WITH NEXT SYSTEM LOOKING A LITTLE STRONG THEN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN WIND SPEEDS AT 85-5H BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST AREA COMING UNDER FAVORABLE POSITION OF 115 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. PWAT AT THIS TIME ALSO INCREASES TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. MEAN 85-5H FLOW ALSO BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SO IT SHOULD BE SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AREA COULD SEE SOME ACTIVE STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL TOUCH ON THIS IN THE HWO BUT LEAVE OUT OF ZONES AS WE WILL STILL HAVE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN STAYS CONSISTENT. && .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...WILL KEEP A DECENT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS LATEST GFS HAS FRONT STALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ECMWF ALSO HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION. DRIER AIR AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE OVER 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS. && .UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS... BPT 62 35 59 44 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 63 36 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 65 37 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 AEX 60 32 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...SCA...GMZ450-455-470-475. && $$ 07-RUA/11-SWEENEY la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 344 PM EST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... SNOW AMTS/HEADLINES ARE BIGGEST FCST CONCERNS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SPLIT FLOW AFFECTING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG SRN BRANCH TROF BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DIGS TOWARD THE SE CONUS. NRN BRANCH TROF EXISTS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THOUGH MAIN SFC LOW IS IN SERN MO...AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. IT IS ALONG THIS TROF WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING TODAY. A VERY TIGHT PCPN GRADIENT EXISTS FROM W TO E...WITH DRY ELY FLOW KEEPING THE EAST 2/3RDS OF THE U P PCPN FREE SO FAR. MORNING GRB/APX SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY WEDGE BELOW 800MB. WOULD EXPECT PCPN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S. THOUGH BEST UPR DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH REMAINS TO OUR SE...WE WILL BE UNDER RRQ OF INCREASING H3 JET IN NWRN ONTARIO AS WELL (TO 90KT BY 06Z PER RUC). THIS BETTER LIFT WILL FOCUS PCPN ALONG INVERTED TROF AS IT MAKES SOME HEADWAY EWD (AFTER BEING STATIONARY TODAY). ETA/GFS QPFS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN 290K MIXING RATIOS OF 2-2.5 G/KG AND 6-9 HRS OF MOST OPTIMUM LIFT. AS LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHIFTING E...WOULD NOT EXPECT ACCUMS TO GET OUT OF HAND IN ANY ONE SPOT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...SINCE COLDER AIR DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LIFT EXITS (AROUND 18Z IN THE EAST). LIFT WILL ALSO HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO...2-5 INCHES SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MOST FROM THIS POINT ON. THOUGH CONTEMPLATED ADDITIONAL ADVYS FOR ERN COUNTIES...BELIEVE AMTS WILL STAY JUST UNDER. ADVYS IN WEST ARE LOOKING GOOD...AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE NOTED ACCUMS ARE SPREAD OVER TIME WITH NO ADDITIONAL HAZARD (SUCH AS WIND/BLSN ETC). W/ TEMPS IN UPR 20S/AROUND 30...ITS ACTUALLY THE WARMEST DAY WE'VE HAD IN A LONG WHILE...WITH LITTLE WIND. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD (MOSTLY IN 20S)...AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS CURRENT DEWPTS ARE IN LOWER/MID 20S. SYNOPTIC SNOW ENDS FROM W TO E TOMORROW...AND CAA BRINGS TRANSITION TO LES REGIME BY LATE IN THE DAY OUT WEST. CONSIDERING COLD UPSTREAM AIR (12Z H8 TEMP -27C AT CYQD...BUT UNFORTUNATELY NO KBIS RAOB)... AND FACT THAT UPR TROF SHOULD DIG INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER GFS/ UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE ETA (WHICH TAKES H8 COLD POOL WELL TO OUR N). THOUGH GFS H8 TEMPS TO -24C TUE NIGHT MAY BE A BIT COLD...BELIEVE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE -15C SHOWN BY THE ETA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DECENT LES TUE NITE/WED IN NW WIND FAVORED AREAS. A GFS SOUNDING AT ANJ DOES SHOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THE ETA AND AN INVERSION HEIGHT TO 5KFT THRU WED...W/ GOOD LLVL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE W/ ACCUMS FOR NOW (DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY)...AND HAVE GIVEN THE NE ZONES 2-4 INCHES EACH PERIOD TUE NIGHT AND WED. SHORTER FETCH/DRIER AIR WILL KEEP ACCUMS LEAST IN THE WEST. HIGH BUILDS IN FOR A BENIGN WX DAY ON THU. THE ETA ACTUALLY SPREADS PCPN INTO THE CWA THU W/ NEXT TROF FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS TOO FAST CONSIDERING WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY ELY FLOW NEAR THE SFC HIGH. INTERESTINGLY THE USUALLY GENEROUS GFS KEEPS US DRY. THE NEW UK RUN ALSO SUPPORTS A DRY THU FCST. IN THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...LOOKS GENERALLY LIKE A CHANCE OF SNOW EACH DAY AS OUR WX PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW BY FRI (THOUGH PHASING BETWEEN NRN AND SRN BRANCHES OF JET REMAINS UNCLEAR)...FOLLOWED BE SOME LES SAT. UKMET AND CANADIAN SHOW STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ON SAT (MORESO THAN THE GFS)...SO HAVE OPTED FOR LIKELY SHSN IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS AS THIS SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. NEXT CLIPPER BRINGS NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE SUN AND MON. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREES W/ OPERATIONAL RUN IN KEEPING H8 TEMPS ON ORDER OF 12-16 BELOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL. COORDINATED W/ APX...GRB AND DLH...THANKS. && MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ001>004-009-010-084. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1000 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA WITH TROF IN BOTH NRN AND SRN BRANCHES ACRS THE PLAINS SANDWICHED BTWN RDGS OVER THE W COAST AND IN THE EAST. TROF IN THE NRN BRANCH CENTERED JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG...AND FAIRLY POTENT/SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV IN THE SRN BRANCH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. MSLP PATTERN SHOWS SFC LO OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH SHRTWV...WITH INVERTED TROF OF LO PRES EXTENDING NWD INTO THE WRN LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH UNPHASED NRN BRANCH SYS. AS SRN BRANCH SYS HAS BECOME INCRSGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED...H5 FLOW THE PAST 12HRS HAS BACKED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY...ALLOWING A SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN BRANCH TROF TO SHIFT N. THIS SHRTWV EVIDENT ON IR SAT PIX AS BAND OF ENHANCED CLD STRETCHING FM MN SE INTO WI. 12Z PWAT UP TO 0.57 INCH AT DVN IN THIS SLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH COLDER CLD TOPS EXTEND AS FAR E AS LK MI...THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SN IS APRNT ONLY W OF CNTRL WI CLOSER TO MSLP TROF/BETTER LLVL CNVGC AND DUE TO DRY AIR NOTED BTWN H8 AND H925 ON 12Z GRB SDNG ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING ARCTIC HI PRES/UPR RDG TO THE E. LLVL FLOW REMAINS ESE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GRT LKS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR OVER THE ERN/CNTRL CWA. A STEADY LIGHT SN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE W ALL NGT EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE LIFTING SHRTWV. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SN HAVE FALLEN OVERNGT ACRS THE W. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND SN TRENDS/AMOUNTS FOR TDAY AND GOING HEADLINES. 06Z ETA/AVN AND 12Z RUC ALL SHOW AXIS OF ENHANCED H7 UVV/AXIS OF ENHANCED UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH LIFTING SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS MAINLY WRN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. 12Z ETA CONFIRMS THESE TRENDS...AND SHOWS QPF UP TO 0.43 INCH OVER THE WRN ZNS BTWN 12Z AND 24Z...A REASONABLE NUMBER CONSIDERING 2-3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ANALYZED AND FCST ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SFC (H7-75)...UPSTREAM PWAT AND 6 HR PD OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPR DVGC MAX. XPCTD QPF WOULD SUPPORT UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES SN TDAY IN THE PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC ACRS THE W. WL TAPER AMTS OFF SHAPRLY TO THE E AND THE DRIER AIR...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OVER THE FAR ERN ZNS. LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A BREAK MAY BE IN ORDER LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THIS OUT-IN-FNT SHRTWV AND BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF UPR DVGC MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE MAIN SRN BRANCH SHRTWV OVERSPREADS FA THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH 12HR SN TOTALS MAY APRCH WRNG LVLS IN A FEW SPOTS THRU TDAY...LACK OF MISERY FACTORS WITH LGT WND/RELATIVELY HI TEMPS PRECLUDE UPGRADE TO WRNG ATTM. SO WL LEAVE GOING HEADLINES AS IS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL RECOVERY IN TEMP TDAY WITH THICKENING CLDS AND PCPN...GREATEST OVER THE E WHERE THE CLDS ARE THINNEST. && MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ001>003-009-084. SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT MIZ004-010. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 218 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004 .OVERVIEW... TRYING TO DECIDE WHICH MODEL IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE NEXT 36 HRS BEST IS VERY DIFFICULT THIS MORNING. THE 15Z RUC SFC PROG LOOKS REASONABLE...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ETA ARE NOT EVEN SIMILAR IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME TDA. THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. TIGHTLY PINCHED SFC PRES GRAD CREATING NASTY CONDITIONS OVER OUR SRN COASTAL WATERS WITH GALES AND HIGH SURF THIS MORNING. && .PUBLIC... TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE WEDGE WAS ABLE TO MODIFY MORE THAN EXPECTED YSTDY WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE. CURRENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS FAR S GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER OUR CWFA TDA AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES PUNCHES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY TDA BY THE GFS WITH BANDS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG AND JUST S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER LATE TODAY...MOVING THROUGH OUR S CAROLINA FA OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS LOOK DECENT WITH NEG TILT TROF UPSTREAM AND BROAD UPPER LVL DIFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. THE ETA HAS STRONG H7 OMEGA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z-06Z PLACEMENT IS FURTHER INLAND. OVERALL PREFER THE GFS WITH THIS SCENARIO. WHETHER THE WARM AIR PUNCH WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET THE SFC LOW INLAND OR NOT REMAINS A BIG QUESTION. STILL AGREE WITH THE PMDHMD DISC...ALTHOUGH NOT AS CONVINCED THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PAST TRENDS WITH THE WEDGE BEHAVIOR. IN ANY CASE...THE LOW WILL BE N OF OUR AREA EARLY TUE. WILL KEEP ISOLD TSTMS IN THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES THIS EVENING AND DO SOME MASSAGING OF OUR 50-70 POPS...TAPERING RAIN OFF NRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR WITH DOWNSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE OUR TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO SHOW MID 60S...BUT SHY AWAY FROM THE 70 DEGREES THE ETA FORECASTS AT SAV. WED LOOKING MCLR AND SEASONABLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THU WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. THE GFS SHOWING A RATHER WARM SYSTEM ON FRI WITH 60 KT LLJ AND WDSPRD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WILL SEE HOW THE TIMING AND INSTABILITY EVOLVE ON LATER RUNS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS SHOW GALE CONDITIONS ALL AREAS EXCEPT SC COASTAL WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXIST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MOVE NORTH. LATEST ETA AND GFS TRACK THE LOW FROM INLAND GEORGIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAR INLAND. CURRENT VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN TODAY AS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH. AS IT DOES...EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL LEAVE ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS IS WITH EARLY MORNING MARINE PACKAGE. DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE TO TAKE GALES DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT IF NEEDED. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY GO FROM WEST TUESDAY EVENING TO NORTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST WITH AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH WNW-ESE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEAST. ON THURSDAY STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW MOVES FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...GALE WARNING AMZ354-374. HIGH SURF ADVISORY AMZ354-GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...GALE WARNING AMZ352. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350. && $$ 24/9 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 937 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... CDFNT LOCATED THROUGH WESTERN AR THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW EXIST OVER THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS COLDER TOPS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER AND MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT...PROBABLY WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LZK 12Z SOUNDING AND LATEST RUC DATA INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...THUS WILL UPDATE AND REMOVE FROM THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. && .MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MS...NONE. MO...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1020 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. SUNNY SKIES ALSO PREVAILED LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF. MAIN CHANGE TO FCST IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT RUC MODEL AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... CURRENT...LONG WAVE TROF OVER TX TONIGHT WITH 100KT PLUS H3 JET DRIVING INTO ITS BASE. IN ADVANCE OF TROF...LAST OF THE STORMS ARE EXITING EXTREME SERN COUNTIES. IN SPITE OF WEAK INSTABILITY...STORMS HAVE FORMED AT TOP OF COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND ARE PRODUCING WEAK WINDS AND PLENTY OF LIGHTNING. ALL PRECIP WILL END IN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. TO THE WEST...COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED PAST HILL COUNTRY INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES.THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FIT CLOSEST TO GFS. TODAY AND TONITE...SLOW AND STEADY DRYING TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTN AND INTO ERN TX TONITE. WITH THE LOWER DEW PTS THAT WILL PROVIDE VERY EFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONITE WILL DROP INTO 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. WARM AND SUNNY TUE AS RIDGE PULLS EWD AND LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN FROM SOUTH. TUE AND TUE NITE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS THRU THE AFTN AND NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TUE NITE. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL ZONES AFTER MIDNITE. S/WV APPROACHES FROM WEST...DRIVING COLD FRONT INTO WRN TX ON WED. THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TIME TO REPLENISH MOISTURE...SO WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS AND POPS ON WED AND INCREASE WED NITE. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE INTO WRN ZONES WED AFTN AND CROSS REST OF SC TX BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY SUN WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS IN PLACE. && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 13/03 tx SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 932 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 THE RUC/GFS ARE THE ONLY MODELS CAPTURING THE DEGREE OF COLD THERMAL ADVECTION THIS MORNING. UPGRADED ALL THE WATERS TO SCA CRITERIA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES. CORRESPONDINGLY HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FOR THE INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE SCALED BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SUNNY SKY CHARACTER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE/DOWNGLIDE. && .CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275. && $$ 85 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 426 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SAT AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 2 REGIONS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND COLD CLOUD TOPS. ONE AREA OVR ERN IA WHERE MIXED PCPN IS OCCURRING AND IS WITHIN RRQD OF 60 KT JET STREAK. THE OTHER OVR ERN IL...WHERE SMALL VORT MAX IS ANALYZED BUT ONLY MID LEVEL CLDS PRESENT. ENTIRE REGION REMAINS UNDER A PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB CONTINUES TO PREVENT SATURATION AND WIDESPREAD PCPN. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PCPN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTENING OF DRY LAYER. TOOK A COMPROMISE WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW BEGINNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST. ETA FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER OF 1-3 DEGREES TODAY...BUT QUICKLY COOLS AS SATURATION AND RESULTANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN UPPER TROF OVR TX IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE MID SRN STATES TNT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTING NWD INTO SRN WI BY THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON WEAK SFC LOW TO TRACK TO NEAR KORD BY 06Z AND INTO LOWER MI BY TUE AM. WK LOW RESULTS IN A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MINIMAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. HOWEVER...DCVA AND POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTION FROM RRQD OF DEPARTING JET OVR MN WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE EVENING TO PRODUCE MDT OMEGA. MIXING RATIOS AVERAGE FROM 2.5-3.0 G/KG AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY NOTED FROM 700 MB AND ABOVE. ETA/GFS QPF FM 0.30-0.40 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE. THICKNESSES GREATER THAN 534 DM AND SFC TEMPS IN LOW 30S SHOULD YIELD A 10 TO 1 RATIO. QPF AND GARCIA METHOD YIELDS A 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA... STARTING THIS AFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND TNT IN THE SE. CAA AND DAVA BEHIND LOW ALLOWS FOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF AIR MASS ON TUE. SRN PERIPHERY OF ARCTIC AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO SRN WI ON TUE AND RMN UNTIL THU. && .MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... WIZ046-047-056-057>062-063-067>069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT... WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-70>72. $$ NJ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 306 AM CST MON FEB 2 2004 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR WINTER STORM NOW UNDERWAY... AND THE RESULTANT SNOW MOUNTS. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING NICE BAND OF SNOW ALONG TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FARTHER EAST...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS HAVE KEPT THE SNOW AT BAY FOR THE TIME BEING. 00Z FEBRUARY 02 MODELS SHOWS NO MAJOR INITIALIZATION ERRORS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF THE THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW INTO ARKANSAS TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT PULLS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HARD TO PICK A PREFERENCE...BUT GIVEN THE ETA'S GOOD TRACK RECORD OF LATE WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR THE DETAILS. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 280-290K LAYER CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS SATURATION IN AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ALONG WITH THE RUC SHOW THIS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN IN THESE AREAS SOMETIME THIS MORNING. 600MB-700MB FN CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY SUGGESTS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SITUATED PARALLEL TO MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN BALL PARK...WITH HIGHEST TOTAL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING WARM LAYER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...BUT WITH DRY LOW LAYERS WOULD EXPECT EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO QUICKLY CHANGE ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. SYSTEM TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW AND COULD BE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLAT TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RATHER QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW WILL BE SEEN EAST OF THE RIVER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS RATHER QUIET. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SHOW SOME BIG DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE FWC BEING THE WARMEST BY SOME 10 DEGREES. EVEN WITH SOME SUN EXPECT NOT A LOT OF RECOVERY SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER MET/MAV NUMBERS. COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING SITES AND NCEP WINTER WEATHER EXPERIMENT MUCH APPRECIATED THIS MORNING. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY GFS CONTINUED TO INDICATE STORM TRACK WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPICTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW. CURRENT DATA BASE APPEARS TO HANDLE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS WELL AT THIS TIME. && .ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. WI...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061. && $$ RABERDING wi