000 FXUS62 KILM 060513 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1205 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY AND END UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 20S THIS EVENING. LOW DEWPOINTS LIGHT WIND AND CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT. CURRENT HOURLY TEMP/DWPT FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY REQUIRING LITTLE TO NO ADJUSTMENTS AS PROJECTED DIURNAL CURVES REMAIN ALIGNED WELL. THE NORMALLY VERY COLD LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST NC`S `ORGANIC MUCK` AND `PORTSMOUTH SAND` SOIL TYPES WILL RADIATE DOWN TO 8-12 DEGREES TONIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON NORMAL DIFFERENTIALS FROM THE ILM AIRPORT TEMPERATURE AND ALSO ON INPUT FROM THE BRUNT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EQUATION. (SEE FAWN.IFAS.UFL.EDU/TOOLS/MINIMUM_TEMPERATURE IN ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS) AND A CLIMATE NOTE: TODAY`S HIGH IN WILMINGTON FAILED TO REACH 40 DEGREES...MAKING IT ONLY THE SECOND SUCH DAY SINCE 1997 TO REMAIN SO COLD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3PM THU...ARCTIC HIGH LIES OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BITTER COLD START TO THE PD. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH WAA TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK TO JUST A FEW DEG SHY OF CLIMO...SOME 15 DEG WARMER THAN THU AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER REMAINS AT A MINIMUM FRI NIGHT THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE NEW TEMP PROFILE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING LOWS A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. H85 RIDGE CONSOLIDATES EAST OF FL STRENGTHENING THE WAA LOCALLY AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S. UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S COAST SAT NIGHT UNDER MOCLR SKIES AND LIGHT SW WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...5H RIDING OVER THE AREA WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE SRN STREAM 5H LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...FLATTENING THE UPPER PATTERN. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. CENTER OF HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MON INTO TUE WITH WEAK COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING. TROF MOVES INLAND AND THEN N OF THE THE AREA TUE INTO WED. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP AS FRONT PASSES MON BUT BETTER CHANCE...THOUGH STILL LOW...WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS FRONT TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL TROF AND THEN MOVES ONSHORE. SRLY FLOW INCREASES WED AND THU WITH COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT N OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIP WED...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP LATE WED THROUGH THU. COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS THE PERIOD ENDS...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP THU AFTN/EVE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO DESPITE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON MON. TEMPS SUN AND WED WILL APPROACH 70 WHILE TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE ISSUANCE PERIOD...WITH NO CEILINGS OTHER THAN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN FIBROUS CI. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N-S ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ORLEANS BY 06Z SAT. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO PARK OVER THE SE STATES WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO AFFECT THE AREA TERMINALS THIS FCST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE IFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS EVENING. SLIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WERE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE COMPRISED OF 4-6 SECOND WIND-WAVE PERIODS...AND AN UNDERLYING 10-11 SECONDS E SWELL OF AROUND 2 FEET. AS A SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN 1-3 FOOT SEAS THROUGHOUT THE WATERS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SHORT TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3PM THU...IN A TIME OF YEAR WHEN MARINE WX (WIND/WAVES) IS TYPICALLY QUITE ACTIVE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS. LIGHT WINDS TO START WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SEAS WILL RUN UNDER 2 FT. NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE INTO SATURDAY AS ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS RIDGE AXIS MAY WEAKEN SOME SAT NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INC IN GRADIENT WIND. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED S OF THE WATERS SUN WILL YIELD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON MON. ONCE FRONT PASSES EARLY MON WILL SW FLOW WILL BECOME N TO NE WITH ROUGHLY A 5 KT INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS COOLER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SURGE WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING ONSHORE AS FRONT TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL TROF. WINDS IN POST FRONTAL SURGE MON COULD RESULT IN SEAS EXCEEDING 6 FT BRIEFLY ON MON. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC.......NONE. NC.......NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BACON/COLBY NEAR TERM...ARMSTRONG/COLBY SHORT TERM...BACON LONG TERM...LEBO AVIATION...HOEHLER/ROSS