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TXUS20 KNES 062242

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IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-

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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/06/09 2242Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 2230Z KUSSELSON

NOAA AMSU:1934Z/1753Z DMSP SSMI F-13:1633Z/1815Z  SSMI/S:1619Z-1801Z

NASA AMSR-E:1045Z/1224Z

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LOCATION...IDAHO...OREGON...WASHINGTON...

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ATTN WFOS...MSO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...

ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...

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EVENT...MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDS BACK TO NW OF HAWAII AND UPPER

SUPPORT TO 150W...1-2 DAYS OF HVY PRECIP AND RAMIFICATIONS...

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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WHAT IS SCARY ABOUT THIS PATTERN IS THE

LENGTH OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINS FROMN THE SUBTROPICS AND SLOW

EAST MOVEMENT AS WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR BIG PUSH STRONG VORT AT 50N/175E.

RIPPLES ALONG JET AND BACK EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS ON WATER VAPOR WILL MOVE

MAIN FRONTAL BAND EAST SLOWLY UNTIL EFFECTS OF THAT VORT BACK NEAR THE

DATELINE GET CLOSER...AND THAT IS AT LEAST 24HRS AWAY.  AND IN MEAN

TIME...LEADING EDFGE OF MOIST PLUME NOW JUST ENTERING THE NW PACIFIC

AND INTERIOR PICTURE AND WILL BE FINDING A HOME...ALLOWING IMPULSES TO

BRING WAVES OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHWEST AND SPILL OVER THE CASCADES

INTO EASTERN WA/N IDAHO AND INTO W MT.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALREADY

VERY GOOD WITH 700/850MB WINDS OF 50KTS OR GREATER NEARLY ALIGNED TO

PLUME FROM 30N/160W NORTHEAST AND ALREADY GUIDING BEST ADVECTION INTO

VANCOUVER ISLAND AND S BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXPECT MAIN PART OF PLUME TO

CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH A BIT INTO NW WA FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND REST OF

WA...MAYBE CLOSE TO NW OREGON LATER TONIGHT AND WED.    BELIEVE STRENGTH

OF RIPPLES ALONG FRONT AND POSSIBLY MAIN VORT NEAR 50N/150W AND PARENT LOW

WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DETERMINE TOMORROW HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT/BAROCLINIC

BAND GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THAT CAN HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS ON

AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND EXTENT FOR FLOODING.   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...SEE

GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS SHORTLY ON HOME PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW...

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.

....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....

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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:

HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/

...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/

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LAT...LON 5062 11671 4649 11641 4600 12010 4519 12527 4939 12616



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