FXUS66 KHNX 131514
AFDFAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
810 AM PDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. SUBTLE CHANGES ARE NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOW SHOWING UP OFFSHORE. TO THE NORTH, A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS FOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS, READINGS ARE RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES HIGHER THIS
MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS, THUS A WARMER DAY IS DEFINITELY IN THE
OFFING. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THE
WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALBEIT SLIGHT, THE CURRENT DAILY AFTERNOON THREAT OF
THUNDER OVER THE SIERRA SEEMS FINE. NO CHANGES TO THE MORNING GRIDS
OR FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AND FORECAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO HANG OVER CA THRU
THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS THE ONLY SOLN THAT ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A CLOSED
LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS SUPPORTS SE
FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUOUS ADVECTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THE GFS ALSO HINTS THAT THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RICHEN UP AND BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER AFTER WED. SO TSTM THREAT
MAY NOT BE CONFINED TO JUST THE AFTN AND EVE HRS NOR THE HIER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERNEV. HIGHER DEWPTS WOULD ADD HUMID FEEL TO
AIRMASS AND CONSEQUENTLY RAISE APPARENT TEMPS BY DAY 5. MIN TEMPS
WILL ALSO RUN HIGHER. IF SE FLOW IS DEEP ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...TSTM CLOUDS WOULD SURVIVE THEIR TREK TOWARD THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SJ VLY EACH EVENING. EXTENDED SLIGHT CHC POPS WESTWARD INTO THE
SIERNEV FTHLS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY GET PENCILED INTO
THE EAST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY BEFORE FRIDAY. WILL KEEP IT AS AN
AFTERTHOUGHT FOR NOW AND SEE HOW MODELS TREND WITH THIS IDEA IN
FUTURE RUNS. WHATEVER THE CASE...LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST MONSOON EVENT
OF THE SEASON WILL BE UPON US IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PD.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DUDLEY/DURFEE