800 FZHW50 PHFO 060445 SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 700 PM HST THU FEB 5 2009 HIZ005>011-061900- OAHU- 700 PM HST THU FEB 5 2009 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES... SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET...RISING TO 14 TO 18 FEET FRIDAY. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 4 TO 7 FEET...RISING TO 10 TO 14 FEET FRIDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY FEB 11: THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG TRADE WINDS MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACINGS SHORES STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST WED FEB 4 2009 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 5 N 13 8 10 SAME 17-21 ENE SAME 02/04 8 ENE 8 4 6 DOWN 1 SSW 21 2 4 UP THU 3 WNW 20 6 8 UP MED 17-21 E SAME 02/05 5 NNE 13 8 10 SAME MED 7 ENE 8 4 6 SAME MED 2 SSW 17 2 4 SAME MED FRI 8 NW 17 16 20 UP HIGH 17-21 E SAME 02/06 4 NNE 11 6 8 DOWN LOW 7 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW 2 SSW 15 2 4 SAME LOW SAT 7 NW 15 12 16 DOWN MED 17-21 ENE SAME 02/07 7 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW 2 SSW 14 2 4 SAME LOW SUN 5 NW 13 8 10 DOWN LOW 17-21 ENE SAME 02/08 7 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW 2 SSW 12 2 4 DOWN LOW MON 4 NNW 11 6 8 DOWN LOW 17-21 E SAME 02/09 7 ENE 8 4 6 SAME LOW 2 SSW 14 2 4 UP LOW LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... FEEL OF SPRING WITH ABUNDANT TRADES AND SWELLS FROM AROUND THE COMPASS. DETAILED... MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 350-010 DEGREES WITH 11-13 SECOND PERIODS. SIMILAR SURF SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED EAST ALONG ABOUT 45N LATITUDE NORTH OF HAWAII THIS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENED AS IT PASSED THE HAWAII SWELL WINDOW. THE COMBINATION OF ANGULAR SPREADING FROM SWELL TRAINS MISSING HAWAII TO THE EAST...AND NEAR GALES AIMED AT HAWAII SHOULD KEEP MODERATE SURF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE DIRECTION GRADUALLY LEANS TOWARD 20 DEGREES. SMALL SURF FROM THIS SOURCE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ONE OF THE DEEPEST LOW PRESSURES OF THE WINTER SEASON FORMED EAST OF NORTHERN JAPAN THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING BELOW 950 MB. THE SYSTEM TOOK AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR HAWAII SURF POTENTIAL AS IT AIMED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALEUTIANS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SHORT FETCH IN THE 290-305 DEGREE BAND COULD MAKE FOR SMALL FORERUNNERS LOCALLY BUILDING EARLY THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM BEGAN AN EASTWARD TRACK LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDE...LONG FETCH OF STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE 310-320 DEGREE BAND FOR ABOUT A DAY. THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE OF OVER 2400 NM IS THE PRIMARY BUFFER FOR LOCAL SURF HEIGHT POTENTIAL. THE HIGHEST SEAS AIMED AT TARGETS NORTH OF HAWAII IN AN AREA SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CLIMBED ABOVE 40 FEET ON TUESDAY. FOR THE FETCH OF 310-330 DEGREES...WIND SPEEDS STEADILY DECLINED LATE MONDAY TO NEAR GALES OVER A BROAD AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. A WEAKER REINFORCEMENT LOW PRESSURE FORMED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH MORE NEAR GALE WINDS IN THE 310-320 DEGREE BAND...THAT WOULD MAKE FOR SMALL SURF ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM 305-320 DEGREES GENERATED BY THE KURIL ISLANDS SOURCE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD ARRIVE LOCALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUILDING TO MODERATE LEVELS BEFORE SUNDOWN. THE EPISODE SHOULD CLIMB TO HIGH LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...PEAKING FRIDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP BELOW THE HIGH SURF MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DIRECTION SHOULD BROADEN ON BY LATE FRIDAY FROM 310-330 DEGREES AND HOLD INTO MONDAY. MODERATE SURF SUNDAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SMALL SURF BY MONDAY. MID WEDNESDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 40-60 DEGREES. TRADES ARE FRESH AND SHOULD STAY ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEE THE LATEST NWS STATE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AN EXPLANATION. BREAKERS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE FROM MOSTLY 50-90 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY EXPOSURES ON THE EASTERN SHORE SHOULD RECEIVE BREAKERS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE SOURCE DESCRIBED ABOVE OUT OF 350-020 DEGREES...MAKING FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS. MID WEDNESDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS INFREQUENT...SMALL BREAKERS FROM LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE KILO NALU SENSOR SHOWS LOW MAGNITUDE SWELL OF 19-21 SECONDS. A STORM-FORCE SYSTEM PASSED SE OF NEW ZEALAND A WEEK AGO WEDNESDAY. SURF FROM THIS SOURCE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKER YET BROAD SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND COULD GIVE WAY TO A MILD REINFORCEMENT ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ABOVE THE FEBRUARY SOUTH SHORE AVERAGE...BUT SMALL RELATIVE TO THE SUMMER STANDARDS...WITH INFREQUENT STANDOUT SETS TO THE MODERATE LEVEL. INTO THE LONG RANGE...A SERIES OF MOSTLY NEAR GALES CONTINUES EAST OF NEW ZEALAND THAT COULD KEEP TINY TO SMALL SURF FROM 180-200 DEGREES MOST OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...MODELS SHOW THE THE PRIMARY JET IN A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO BELOW AVERAGE FEBRUARY SURF FOR NORTHERN SHORES AND ABOVE AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. HINTS OF A MODERATE NW SURF EVENT ROUGHLY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND A SMALLER NW A FEW DAYS LATER. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE SUBJECT TO TOTAL RECALL. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE RESUME ON FRIDAY...FEBRUARY 6. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL