000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230826
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004
 
CELIA HAS A SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN AND CONSISTS OF A FEW CELLS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A DISRUPTED OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON EARLIER 0307Z SSMI WHICH SHOWS A VERY SMALL AREA OF 35
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS NEARING COOLER WATERS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOW THAT CELIA IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LOW. THEREFORE...
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS PRODUCING INTERMETTENT CONVECTION.  

CELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 16.4N 125.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$