ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SHAPELESS BUT IT IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY FEATURE THAT PROLONGS THE LIFE OF DOLLY. ESTIMATED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS MISSED ALL THE OPORTUNITIES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT WAS AT LOW LATITUDES...IN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS. IT IS NOW BASICALLY TOO LATE FOR STRENGHTENING SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY FAST TOWARD HIGHER SHEAR. DOLLY IS BEING KEPT AT 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WEAKENING MAY ALSO OCCUR. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL REDEVELOPS DOLLY AT THE LONG RANGE...MORE THAN 5 DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS BEGIN TO MOVE MOVE NORTHEAST WARD AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THE UK MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM MUCH EARLIER ONCE THE NORTHWARD TURN BEGINS. IT IS HARD TO SEE SUCH INTENSIFICATION WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FORECAST FOR THE AREA. DOLLY IS RACING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. ONLY CLIMATOLOGY MAINTAINS THE WESTNORTHWEST TRACK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 13.4N 45.9W 35 KTS 12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.0N 48.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 01/1800Z 16.0N 51.0W 35 KTS 36HR VT 02/0600Z 17.0N 52.5W 35 KTS 48HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 53.5W 35 KTS 72HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W 35 KTS NNNN