FXUS64 KHUN 101545 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

.UPDATE...
IT'S A TALE OF SUBTLE FEATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HUN FCST AREA.
ALREADY STARTING TO GET SOME ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPMENT...VERY OBVIOUS
FROM THE IMPRESSIVE TCU/CB LINE DEVELOPING OUTSIDE THE OFFICE. SFC
WINDS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY OR SHORTWAVE
ALONG A BHM-CGI LINE...WHICH IS FOCUSING SHRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
TN-AL STATE LINE. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER HIGH TO BE
OVER NRN FL...WITH A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER NRN MO. AREA TEMPS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S...DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

LOOKS LIKE THE PVSLY-MENTIONED "FEATURE" IS ROTATING AROUND OUR
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED UPPER HIGH...SO IT SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE DAY TODAY. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED AT THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CU FIELD GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...NOT TO MENTION
THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR. IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE...CONSIDERING
THAT FCST MODELS HAVE THE UPPER HIGH MOVING CLOSER TO OUR AREA.
SHORTWAVE OVER MO COULD HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON THE AREA...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL STAY TOO FAR TO THE N TO DO MUCH MORE. HOWEVER...
HARD TO ARGUE WITH RADAR RETURNS AND THE APPARENT IMPACT OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL DO SOME RECONFIGURING OF THE ZONE GROUPS...AND
RAISE POPS INTO THE SCTD CATEGORY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY.

IN SUMMARY...UPDATES TO RAISE POPS FOR SOME AREAS ARE FORTHCOMING...
AND ALL PRODUCTS SHOULD BE OUT BY 1630Z.  --BCC/27
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLOWLY WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE. FOR SUNDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. THE MIDWEST SHORT WAVE WILL BE
GETTING CLOSE TO THE AREA THAT NIGHT.

FOR THE NEW WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OUT WEST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY COULD BE DRY AFTER
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER. THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE DRY DAYS. SINCE
THESE EVENTS DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...
WE WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE NEXT
RUN LOOKS.  --SCHAUB
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$