000
FXUS04 KWBC 312004
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
303 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2009


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 01/0000 UTC THRU FEB 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...GTLKS...
VERY LIGHT WAA SNOWS WILL BRUCH PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND ERN GT
LAKES AS LOW PRES TRACKS GENLY EWD ALONG THE SRN CANADIAN BORDER.
NO REAL UPR SUPPORT HERE FOR MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT AMOUNTS..WITH
PERHAPS .10 INCH OR SO TO THE NRN SHORES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

..LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK AND VERY SHEARED S/WV ENERGY ASSOCD WITH E/W SUBTROP JET WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW MSTR PRIMARILY LATE IN THE PD
ACRS THE WRN GULF TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHWRS THIS
REGION.  WITH THE GULF STARTING OUT SO VERY DRY..DID NOT GO TOO
HEAVY..BUT DID GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GFS/NAM AMOUNTS WITH SOME .25
INCH AMOUNTS OVER SRN LA IN MODEST RETURN FLOW AND PWS.

..PAC NW...
S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE ERN GULF OF AK WILL DIRECT MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE B.C. COAST.  85H WLY FLOW INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KTS LATE SUN TOWARD THE OLYMPICS WITH PWS APCHG
AN INCH.  BASED ON CURRENT TIMING..EXPECT LIGHT RAINS TO REACH THE
OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES LATE IN THE PD WITH NAM/GFS AMOUNTS
APPEARING REASONABLE.

...DAYS 2 AND 3...

...GULF COAST/LWR MS AND TN VLYS TO THE EAST COAST...

SRN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN BAJA CA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN GOMEX LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2.  DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL FUEL MDT/HVY PCPN
ALONG THE CTRL/ERN GULF COAST ON DAY 2...WITH A SECONDARY MAX
FORMING ALONG A NRN STREAM BNDRY DRAPED NE-SW FROM THE TN VLY INTO
THE LWR MS VLY.  SFC LOW WILL LIFT NEWD OFF OF THE E COAST ON DAY
3 AS THE SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS OUT AHEAD AN AMPLIFYING NRN
STREAM TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.  THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE MODELS
APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A LESS-PHASED MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM...WHICH IN TURN MEANS LIGHTER AMTS FOR THE ERN SEABOARD.
THE HPC FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND...DISCOUNTING THE HEAVIER
AMTS SHOWN BY THE GFS ALONG THE MID ATL/NORTHEAST...WHICH DESPITE
ITS OWN TRENDS...IS STILL DEEPER THAN THE REMAINING 12Z
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.

...PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...

LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED AMTS...MAINLY ACROSS WA/NRN ID AND
NWRN MT ON DAY 2 ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON DAY 3 AS AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NRN HALF OF A SPLITTING TROF OVER THE E PAC.

SULLIVAN/PEREIRA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 494719 491707 490702 487698 485696 482694 476693 470694
      464697 457703 451710 449717 449724 449730 446730 441726
      437728 435732 438741 430745 423748 421754 422764 425774
      424781 419788 417794 422799 427803 429806 430811 429819
      429826 432834 435836 436839 442844 448846 453844 456845
      460851 461856 462859 462872 461890 461895 462901 466910
      471913 475918 479924 481936 481946 480957 486963 489967
      490970 491981 494991 498000 503999 506993 505981 505975
      507969 509960 515960 520964 525967 529967 531965 533960
      533957 533950 531943 531941 528937 524933 521932 518929
      518926 519922 523916 527913 529910 529904 528897 521878
      518870 513859 507814 506805 506795 503772 495741 495733
      494728 494719
 0.01 524256 519248 517243 515234 513227 511222 506217 503211
      503206 506206 519210 524212 528211 530210 532201 531194
      519173 512164 505155 500153 497149 492136 489132 484129
      479126 473124 472124 469128 468136 471141 476142 481145
      483147 483151 479152 474150 471147 468145 465145 462145
      459148 462153 466158 469160 473161 478160 484162 493170
      498180 497187 493194 487201 478203 474207 471211 471216
      474219 481221 458232 455235 455239 459245 464255 468266
      468273 468277 471280 479286 484290 490294 500298 503300
      506300 510298
 0.01 493086 493079 491072 486068 480063 476059 470051 467047
      464043 461041 460045 462051 465055 471063 474068 477077
      479081 482084 488087 493086
 0.01 454101 453098 451097 450096 447097 444097 441097 438097
      435100 435101 434104 434108 435110 438112 441112 444113
      446115 449114 450113 451109 451105 453103 454101
 0.01 453080 451075 449072 446070 441069 438064 435056 432048
      427043 415037 414039 414045 416048 418050 418057 412062
      409064 404064 395063 395069 401068 405066 407068 409072
      412072 415068 420066 424066 428066 431068 436073 439074
      441076 444080 447083 451083 453080
 0.01 448043 447041 446039 444038 441040 444044 447047 448043
 0.01 334930 331925 328920 319909 312901 305889 300886 293888
      281894 271902 268906 265912 263916 262923 261936 261943
      263950 266956 268962 267967 266971 268974 274976 278979
      286987 287987 289983 291977 293965 297960 302956 307954
      313951 324943 330937 333932 334930
 0.01 275798 273796 268796 265795 259795 256795 252798 249800
      245805 244808 245811 248813 251812 255810 258809 263807
      268805 273802 276801 275798
 0.25 517278 520269 520261 513252 508243 500234 497231 496236
      497240 495245 490245 487243 484245 483254 484260 486273
      489279 492282 500289 505291 509290 512286 515281 517278
 0.25 304926 305921 302918 297916 288917 285918 282922 281928
      280936 281944 282948 285948 290945 296941 300936 303930
      304926
 0.50 515277 518268 517261 511257 506254 504248 506254 500256
      497255 494254 491257 491266 493272 496276 498280 504284
      506286 510285 513280 515277
 0.50 294932 296928 295925 293922 292922 289922 287923 286924
      285927 286930 287933 288934 291935 294933 294932

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 492675 491669 490665 485660 479660 475659 469659 463660
      458662 458669 461672 468674 470679 468685 463691 456697
      453699 452703 449710 450714 453716 458718 464715 471709
      479697 484691 488684 491679 492675
 0.01 525256 523256 521250 519244 517239 515233 513224 511219
      508214 509209 512210 515213 517215 520220 525227 527229
      531229 534225 538216 540201 540195 538187 534179 531169
      525163 522159 517158 503149 499147 497144 495139 492136
      484130 478127 473126 469128 466127 463124 461126 457126
      451130 450136 451141 456146 460155 462165 465174 467176
      471176 474177 477179 479184 480188 484191 484197 478199
      471202 465208 454218 458224 465230 458232 457233 455239
      459249 464256 469262 473270 478279 483286 490293 495297
      500300 503300 507299 510297
 0.01 501963 501954 499946 496935 490921 486908 485904 481897
      476892 476885 477876 476871 475862 467865 460869 454871
      451870 448867 448860 448848 448842 445835 442830 439823
      438809 438802 437798 435795 432795 429797 422806 417816
      413825 411835 410841 412848 414857 417864 423870 425873
      428878 428885 426892 428901 432911 435917 437920 442921
      445920 449919 453922 459929 464938 476957 484977 487984
      490990 494993 499991 501985 501976 501963
 0.01 444745 443741 440741 437743 434745 433747 433749 433752
      433756 433760 436763 437763 440763 443761 444758 444755
      444754 444749 444746 444745
 0.01 478225 477224 475223 472222 470223 468226 467226 468228
      471228 474226 477225 478225
 0.01 424731 423728 421727 417728 414731 410736 405741 389760
      381767 374773 370778 365790 360804 354813 350818 345823
      341826 338831 334834 328837 322837 319833 316824 316816
      317808 322803 330795 341786 351778 357769 362760 366746
      369740 372731 376721 377715 378707 377703 374697 369696
      363699 347715 337726 326738 323741 321744 317745 304749
      299751 292754 280763 272770 261775 257779 255784 255791
      257798 260803 262806 261810 258818 255823 250827 241833
      237836 234840 230847 228852 226858 226864 228874 232884
      239895 238907 239913 242920 243924 241929 239937 234947
      233953 234958 237960 240961 247961 262957 272958 278958
      286959 291960 294962 301968 310974 317976 322975 324972
      329968 332964 339953 344944 346937 348933 355911 360898
      363891 365882 367872 371859 376849 380844 384839 393819
      396813 400807 404800 405796 404793 402790 399787 398779
      404766 409758 415750 421741 424731
 0.01 456105 456101 456100 455097 453094 450093 447094 444096
      442096 441097 438097 436100 438104 441104 444105 444109
      442113 443114 446116 449117 452116 455114 454109 455107
      456105
 0.01 452080 450076 448072 447072 444071 442072 444076 444077
      447080 450084 452080
 0.25 535216 536209 535201 534195 532189 526179 523173 519170
      514169 507167 496165 491166 489170 490175 493180 499190
      508195 516201 521212 529219 532219 535216
 0.25 521269 522263 521258 516249 513242 510231 502219 497213
      491211 487213 485217 489227 487232 481237 475238 474243
      473250 475257 479266 487278 494285 499291 506292 512289
      516282
 0.25 370712 367708 362711 354718 347726 342733 336741 326749
      309760 293772 281783 275790 273794 274798 273810 270819
      267826 262833 252843 246851 243860 242864 242870 244879
      248886 251897 252918 255926 260934 263937 267939 272939
      278937 285933 292928 300930 304935 305939 304943 307949
      311951 317952 323951 328949 332943 337936 341927 347912
      354891 357870 359860 358853 359849 362841 363838 364832
      360832 354835 346842 340862 337869 332876 330880 325882
      321882 323875 325871 331863 333860 335857 334854 331852
      329853 324856 317861 312864 308863 305858 304852 305844
      305833 303820 303814 305810 310804 324791 336779 343770
      347764 353754 358744 365730 368721 370712
 0.50 533210 532200 529192 523186 518178 513173 509173 504173
      503175 502178 503182 508188 514191 519198 525204 530210
      533210
 0.50 517278 520270 521265 520261 518256 515252 512246 510241
      508236 504229 502226 499224 495223 490238 484241 480244
      479247 478252 479257 481262 483268 487273 490276 495282
      503288 508288 513286 517278
 0.50 363720 360720 355723 350729 339742 332750 325756 311766
      303771 296776 290782 287787 284791 284795 284805 285809
      283812 278817 270830 262841 254853 251861 249868 249875
      251882 254892 255900 256906 256909 258919 262926 267931
      275931 281927 291919 300919 310918 315915 319916 322919
      322926 320933 319936 320940 324940 328938 333934 338928
      342917 348902 352887 353879 353874 351869 345872 339880
      330893 327899 325901 321904 314904 312900 311895 312886
      315877 314872 312870 307871 304868 300861 299851 299836
      299825 297814 298810 300807 306802 319791 329781 339768
      345759 350751 354744 357736 361729 363720
 1.00 515276 517271 519264 515255 510250 504243 501241 500243
      501247 500252 494249 491246 486246 483254 486264 489270
      495277 501282 505284 509283 514278 515276
 1.00 342752 343748 341749 339752 337754 335756 334759 335761
      338756 340755 342752 342752
 1.00 333764 329765 324768 321770 317774 312778 310780 306784
      305789 308791 313788 315786 320782 322779 326775 328772
      330768 333764
 1.00 346888 346884 344885 340890 336898 334904 331907 330917
      332920 335921 337919 341911 343905 345898 346890 346888
 1.00 304880 294863 293858 293852 292841 291835 288832 285830
      279830 272836 268843 261859 259867 258878 260898 266913
      270920 275922 280919 285915 295910 299903 300892 303886
      304880
 1.50 508278 506273 506272 505267 504266 502261 499259 496257
      494255 492253 491252 490252 488256 488260 489264 490266
      491268 493272 494272 496275 499277 502278 505279 508278
 1.50 294874 291871 288869 284867 281867 278869 274873 272877
      269881 267888 271888 274880 277877 281877 286878 290878
      292877 294874
 1.50 293903 293900 293897 290894 289893 286893 284893 281894
      278895 276898 275901 274903 274905 274908 274911 275914
      277915 279913 280913 282911 284910 287909 289907 290907
      292905 293903
 2.00 499270 498266 497264 495262 493262 494268 495268 497271
      499270

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 474624 470613 465607 460602 454602 449602 440607 435611
      430618 423628 420633 413641 407645 401652 398656 393660
      384667 372678 366684 358690 345699 333704 324708 316712
      303716 295719 290724 282730 274737 261749 243767 235777
      228787 222799 219806 219810 219815 221825 222831 221840
      221847 224855 228857 235856 241853 248851 255851 262849
      268846 277843 286842 287843 286846 282853 273864 261877
      260883 260889 262895 266898 273896 280893 286889 290884
      300852 306837 313825 316819 319814 324808 328806 336803
      338802 341805 346811 348812 351811 367801 377798 386793
      388794 386799 384803 381807 366815 359820 354825 350831
      348837 344851 346855 349857 353855 356853 360847 363844
      368841 377841 387842 391836 393833 395833 402839 407845
      412851 413855 412858 411866 411870 413873 420887 425895
      430901 442911 445912 450911 453907 456904 458904 458908
      455917 453922 456924 462923 466921 473916 475907 475899
      474888 471877 468869 466866 463865 454867 448865 441860
      437858 433854 435849 439851 443849 449842 452837 452830
      450823 447818 443811 439801 439795 437789 434780 433775
      433770 434760 436752 440746 445739 449729 450718 450707
      451698 454688 464669 469660 473648 475641 475634 475628
      474624
 0.01 540202 541192 539187 536181 533178 532175 531170 528164
      517154 509148 501140 492134 478129 472128 470132 470137
      473143 476145 480146 485147 488152 496160 496163 493167
      488167 486169 486174 492185 495189 497190 500195 501199
      504200 510202 513203 515207 516214 518220 522226 525227
      531225 536216 540202
 0.01 540018 540013 537008 532004 524001 518998 512997 503996
      501999 499004 500010 501013 506022 511028 517031 521033
      525034 531034 533033 537030 540023 540018
 0.01 519274 521261 521255 519249 515243 515231 511224 505217
      501211 499208 495206 493209 491215 492225 494235 496240
      499243 501251 498248 492244 489242 486246 485252 486258
      489266 491275 496282 502287 509288 514282 519274
 0.25 454633 452628 450627 446628 443630 437638 433643 427652
      422660 413661 410661 406664 392673 377684 359699 347708
      333716 320721 312724 303729 288738 277745 267754 260761
      257767 250778 240798 235805 233811 231819 232825 236829
      239829 243824 245819 247813 251807 256801 262795 266793
      270794 274795 278798 283806 284810 287816 291817 296816
      302810 312800 320790 333778 345768 356759 367747 373740
      379734 392723 404711 416700 442669 445661 449652 452646
      454641 454633
 0.25 531204 532200 531198 530194 529192 526188 524183 524182
      523183 519188 514183 513186 520196 522200 523202 525204
      527206 530205 531204
 0.50 407682 405677 404675 397676 392678 386682 377690 365701
      356709 347715 310733 303737 297740 286745 279750 274755
      267761 266765 268770 271771 276772 278776 278781 280786
      283789 288794 292797 296799 301798 309794 317788 323783
      335772 348759 360746 373733 385720 391713 397705 404693
      406687 407682
 0.50 246804 245801 244801 242803 240806 239807 238811 239814
      246807 246804
 1.00 391689 387691 382696 372707 363713 356718 350722 328738
      320746 310756 302763 297768 294773 294777 296782 301784
      308782 325771 343754 361736 369727 379716 385706 389700
      391694 391689

$$